Saudi Military Buildup By Yemen Border May Mean Intervention

United States officials confirmed on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is moving artillery and other heavy military equipment to its southern border with Yemen. This action comes as the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels, who took over Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, in September and replaced the country’s legitimate government in January, push southward towards the city of Aden.

While multiple U.S. officials have described the Saudis’ military buildup as defensive, one government source said it is “significant” and could be a step in preparation for airstrikes to protect Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi if the Houthis get to Aden. Such a Saudi military offensive would not be unprecedented, as the Kingdom launched one into Yemen in 2009.

Hadi, who is supported by the U.S. and still considered Yemen’s legitimate leader, has been based in Aden ever since fleeing Sana’a earlier this year. This past weekend, the Houthis took the central city of Taez, the gateway to Aden, and are advancing to Hadi. The president reportedly fled his palace today, however, as Houthis offered money for his capture and arrested his defense minister. It is unclear where Hadi currently is.

Yemen has descended into chaos since the Houthi coup d’état. The Shiite rebels, based in the north, are battling al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which operates from the south. Additionally, Islamic State (ISIS) has established a presence in Yemen as well, only increasing violence as it launches sectarian attacks against Shia, including civilians. Yemen borders Saudi Arabia to the south, and the Kingdom is very worried that the civil war developing in Yemen will spill over the 1,100-mile border, including into the oil-rich, Shiite eastern parts of Saudi Arabia.

On a strategic level, the situation in Yemen is a microcosm of the larger geopolitical conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia along with the moderate Sunni Arab states. The Houthis, as an Iranian proxy, represent Tehran’s aggression and attempt to surround the Kingdom in pursuit of regional hegemony. Saudi Arabia leads the Sunni Arab opposition to Iran’s ambitions and warned, “If the Houthi coup does not end peacefully, we will take the necessary measures for this crisis to protect the region.”

Beyond geopolitics, both Shia and Sunni are invested into Yemen for theological reasons. Yemen has an important position in both Iranian and al-Qaeda/ISIS jihadist eschatology, adding another element to this Iran-Arab conflict.

Saudi Arabia’s military buildup also comes after Hadi asked the 15-member United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution authorizing “willing countries” to support his government against Houthi aggression. Riad Yassin, Yemen’s Foreign Minister also called for Arab military intervention today and asked for the U.N. and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to impose a no-fly zone on parts of Yemen to prevent the Houthis from using airports they have seized.

The situation in Yemen has caused the U.S. to abandon its embassy in Sana’a and withdraw all military personnel in recent days. Furthermore, the Houthis’ takeover has greatly compromised America’s ability to carry out drone strikes against AQAP and our ability to gather intelligence on the ground there. These facts, combined with Tehran’s aggression, Riyadh’s growing vulnerability, and ISIS’s recent arrival, create an increasingly worrisome situation for American interests in Yemen.