Notorious warlord trial begins in The Hague

As the trial of Congolese warlord Bosco Ntaganda, nicknamed ‘The Terminator’ for his brutality, gets underway in The Hague, it is important to reflect upon his murderous career within the larger context of central African security and the threat posed by rebel factions to the fragile democracies taking root in Burundi and Rwanda.

In the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide and the toppling of Mobutu Sese Seko in the DRC, multiple militias emerged.  One was the Patriotic Forces for the Liberation of Congo (PFLC) which Ntaganda headed before aligning with the M-23 rebel movement, which UN observers believe was backed by Rwanda and was finally defeated in 2013 by the Congolese army, leading to turning himself in at the US Embassy in the Rwandan capital of Kigali.

Burundi, along with Uganda, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sierra Leone, are active military participants in the AMISOM mission in Somalia.  With the signing of the accord that took place in 2005, President Pierre Nkurunziza was limited to two five-year terms.  Yet he controversially ran (and won) a third election, arguing that he was not directly voted into power by Burundians for his first term.  Violence has increased since late August, when Nkurunziza was sworn in and declared that his opponents must come to terms with reality or face the consequences.

In neighboring Rwanda to the north, the situation is much more stable.  A critical US partner in the region, President Paul Kagame is set to also win a third term next year.  An ethnic Tutsi, he has a rocky relationship with Nkurunziza, a Hutu.  An aborted coup against Nkurunziza in May led to accusations that Rwanda was behind it.

Rwanda denies all responsibility and for their part, accuses Burundi of backing the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda, (FDLR, Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), the main opposition force against Kagame.  The FDLR is also active in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and frequently stages attacks across the border into Rwanda.

The DRC’s eastern region is rich in minerals and lumber, which China is actively exploiting while giving political cover to President Joseph Kabila at the UN, along with providing similar benefits to both Nkurunziza and Kagame in exchange for access to both nations’ vast gold, diamond, and coltan riches.

As the ICC trial gets underway and evidence comes to light, there is no doubt that Rwanda is watching closely, if not uneasily.  There is potential for embarrassment for Kagame, as Ntaganda prepares his defense against all charges.