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The Bottom Line

Time is running out. Venezuela’s increased pace of repression, militarization, weapons imports, and destabilization of neighboring countries shows that time is running out for the Venezuelan people and for the relative peace that most of the hemisphere has enjoyed. The Bolivarian regime in Caracas presents a clear and present danger to peace and democracy in the hemisphere. It must change. It can change on its own, or it can invite hemispheric forces with the help of Venezuela’s broad democratic opposition, to impose the changes. Either way U.S. strategy must be to help Venezuela accomplish peaceful change by next year.


[1] In April 1999 Chavez called a referendum to decide whether a Constituent Assembly should be convened to write a new constitution for Venezuela. Only 39 percent of the electorate voted.  So we begin with a new constitution being drawn up on a majority vote of 39 percent of the electorate.

In July 1999, the leader called elections to choose the delegates for the Constituent Assembly. As a result of some degree of competition, voter turnout increased to 54%, and the groups opposing the regime received 38 percent of the votes compared to the 42 percent for the pro-regime slates of candidates.  Nevertheless, by some process of political alchemy virtually ignored by the foreign press, the pro-regime 42% of the votes was translated into their receiving 93 percent of the seats in the Constituent Assembly while the opposition parties received only 7 percent of the seats.  The lie, repeated thousands of times, of the overwhelming support for the democratically elected dictator is there if one scratches the surface.

In August 1999, the Constituent Assembly assembled and immediately took actions to neutralize and usurp the authority of the existing judiciary and of Venezuela’s elected Congress. The Venezuelan Supreme Court, having been subjected to open coercion, by regime supporters, reversed an earlier decision and ruled that the Constituent Assembly could declare a “judicial emergency” and establish its own group to “review and evaluate” all existing judges. The head of the Supreme Court resigned in protest and ALL judges were then replaced. Two weeks later the Constituent Assembly, in violation of the existing constitution, declared a “legislative emergency” and forbade the elected national Congress from meeting.  From that time on, the elected national Congress was sidelined; this marked the regime in fundamental violation of the Venezuelan constitution and as antidemocratic.

The new constitution written by regime supporters was submitted to a referendum in December 1999 and voter turnout was 45 percent.  The new constitution was approved by 72 percent of those voting, who in turn accounted for about 30 percent of the electorate.

J. Michael Waller
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