Mapping a National Security Failure: Ratification of the New START Treaty

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Other significant substantive drawbacks of the New START treaty would become more closely intertwined with the ratification process itself, a summary of which follows.

New START Ratification Process: An Overview

 

April 2009

President Obama and Russian President Medvedev agree to have their representatives commence negotiations on a comprehensive arms control agreement to replace the START treaty between the two nations, scheduled to expire in December, 2009.[33]

6 July 2009

Presidents Obama and Medvedev agree to framework for negotiations to reduce respective nuclear arsenals.[34]

18 September 2009

President Obama announces he will dispense with plans for missile defense installations in Poland and the Czech Republic, instead favoring a reconfigured system for shooting down short and medium-range Iranian missiles.[35]

28 October 2009

President Obama signs 2010 National Defense Authorization Act into law, Section 1251 of which links ratification of a U.S.-Russia arms reduction agreement to a plan, with funding, for U.S. nuclear modernization.[36]

5 December 2009

Original START treaty expires.

18 December 2009

All forty Republican U.S. Senators, plus Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), inform President Obama reminding him of the defense authorization law linking U.S.-Russia arms reductions to U.S. nuclear modernization: “…we don’t believe further reductions can be in the national security interest of the U.S. in the absence of a significant program to modernize our nuclear deterrent.”   The letter also stated that a new treaty “must not limit U.S. missile defenses, space capabilities, or advanced conventional modernization, such as non-nuclear global strike capability.”[37]

February 2010

 

Department of Defense releases February 2010 Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report which, according to the Heritage Foundation, limits ballistic missile defense “so that it does not affect the strategic balance with Russia or even China.”[38]

17 February 2010

Senators Jon Kyl (R-Arizona), John McCain (R-Arizona), and Joseph Lieberman (I-Connecticut) send a letter to then-National Security Advisor Gen. James Jones, asking for Jones’ assurance that the Obama administration will not agree to any New START treaty text or any unilateral Russian declarations that would limit U.S. missile defense in any way.[39]

6 April, 2010

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov states that the linkage in the New START treaty’s preamble between strategic offensive and strategic defensive arms (i.e. missile defense) is legally binding.[40]

8 April 2010

Presidents Obama and Medvedev sign the New START treaty; Russia releases a unilateral declaration stating that New START will only remain viable if the United States “refrains from developing its missile defence capabilities quantitatively or qualitatively”, and reserves the right to withdraw from the treaty if the United States develops missile defense “in such a way that threatens the potential of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation.”[41]  The United States issues a statement on the same day, stating that U.S. missile defense systems are “not intended to affect the strategic balance with Russia”, and that “The United States intends to continue improving and deploying its missile defense systems in order to defend itself against limited attack ad as part of our collaborative approach to strengthening stability in key regions.[42]

21 April 2010

State Department releases fact sheet stating that New START’s preamble language on missile defense is not legally binding.[43]

6 May 2010

Six members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee send a letter to President Obama asking for access to the complete negotiating record for the New START treaty.[44]

13 May 2010

Obama administration submits New START to Senate for ratification, along with Section 1251 Report laying out administration’s plan for modernizing US nuclear enterprise.[45]

18 May 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; Secretary of Defense Robert Gates; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen, USN, testifying on “The New START Treaty.”

19 May 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Hon. James Baker, former Secretary of State, testifying on “The History and Lessons of START.”

25 May 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Hon. Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of State, testifying on “The Role of Strategic Arms Control in a post-Cold War World.”

8 June 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee closed hearing – Hon. Rose Gottemoeller, Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance; Hon. Edward L. Warner III, Secretary of Defense Representative to post-START negotiations, testifying on “The New START treaty—the negotiations.”

15 June 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Hon. Rose Gottemoeller, Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance; Hon. Edward L. Warner III, Secretary of Defense Representative to post-START negotiations, testifying on “The New START treaty—the negotiations.”

16 June 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Hon. James N. Miller, Jr., Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Gen. Kevin. P. Chilton USAF, Commander, United States Strategic Command; Lt. Gen. Patrick J. O’Reilly, USA, Director, Missile Defense Agency, testifying on “The New START Treaty—Views from the Pentagon.”

16 June 2010

The Washington Times reports that the Obama administration has undertaken secret negotiations with the Russians that may limit U.S. missile defense.[46]

17 June 2010

Senate Armed Services Committee hearing—Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; Secretary of Defense Robert Gates; Secretary of Energy Steven Chu; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen, USN, testifying on New START and implications for national security programs.

24 June 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Hon. Robert Joseph, National Institute for Public Policy; Hon. Eric Edelman, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; Dr. Morton H. Halperin, Open Society Institute testify on “The New Start Treaty: Benefits and Risks”; Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Hon. James N. Miller, Jr., Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Kenneth A. Myers III, Director, Defense Threat Reduction Agency testify on “New START treaty implementation—inspections and assistance.”

14 July 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee closed hearing—undisclosed intelligence community officials; Hon. Rose Gottemoeller, Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance testify on “The New START Treaty: Monitoring and Verification of Treaty Compliance.”; Senate Armed Services Committee closed hearing—Andrew M. Gibb of National Intelligence Council on National Intelligence Estimate on Verifiability of New START.

14 July, 2010

Several former commanders of Strategic Air Command and U.S. Strategic Command send a letter in support of New START to the Chairmen and Ranking Members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Armed Services Committee.[47]

15 July 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing—Lab Directors of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratory testify on “maintaining a safe, secure and effective nuclear arsenal.”; Senate Armed Services Committee hearing—Lab Directors, and Dr. Roy Schwitters, Chairman, JASON Defense Advisory Group testify on “sustaining nuclear weapons under New START.”

20 July 2010

Senate Armed Services Committee hearing—Hon. James Miller, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Hon. Thomas D’Agostino, Director, National Nuclear Security Administration; Gen. Kevin Chilton, Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, testify on “implementation of the New START.”

27 July 2010

Senate Armed Services Committee hearing—Amb. Steven Pifer, Brookings Institute; Franklin Miller, independent consultant; Dr. John Foster, independent consultant; Dr. Keith Payne, Missouri State University, provide “independent analyses of the New START.”

29 July 2010

Senate Armed Services Committee hearing—Dr. Edward Warner, Secretary of Defense Representative to post-START Negotiations, Department of Defense; Michael Elliott, Deputy Director, Plans and Policy, U.S. Strategic Command; testify on “strategic force structure options under the New START; Hon. Rose Gottemoeller, Assistant Secretary of State for Verification, Compliance and Implementation; Dr. Edward Warner, testify on the New START.

5 August 2010

Senate Armed Services Committee closed hearing—Robert Walpole, National Counterproliferation Center; Charles Monson, National Intelligence Council, testify on “Russian force structure in support of the New START treaty.”

24 September 2010

Senate Foreign Relations Committee passes New START resolution of ratification.

29 October 2010

Interfax reports that the head of the Russian State Duma international affairs committee plans to recommend to committee members that ratification of New START be reconsidered in view of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s resolution.[48]

10 November 2010

A bipartisan group of fifteen former Senators write a letter to Senate leadership urging them not to hold a ratification vote in a lame-duck session of the Senate.[49]

16 November 2010

Sen. Kyl announces he does not believe that New START can be ratified in a lame-duck session of the Senate.[50]

17 November 2010

Senate Armed Services Committee closed hearing—Hon. James Miller, Department of Defense; Gen. Kevin Chilton, Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, testify on “net assessment of Russian and U.S. strategic forces in support of the New START.

18 November 2010

Several newly elected Senators write a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid requesting that a ratification vote on New START not be held in a lame-duck session of the Senate.[51]

22 November 2010

The Washington Times reports that Sen. Kit Bond, then-Vice Chairman, Senate Intelligence Committee, has announced opposition to New START based on classified intelligence.[52]

24 November, 2010

Senators Kyl and Corker circulate memorandum to Senate Republican colleagues explaining status of, and concerns about, nuclear modernization.[53]

30 November 2010

The Washington Times reports that, despite previous denials by Secretary Gates and Secretary Clinton, the Obama administration had held secret talks with Russia on a possible ballistic missile defense agreement.[54]

1 December 2010

National Laboratory directors sign letter to Chairman Kerry and Ranking Member Lugar expressing support for President’s 1251 Modernization Plan.[55]

1 December 2010

Department of State releases Fact Sheet on “Missile Defense Cooperation with the Russian Federation”.[56]

1 December 2010

The Cable reports that Senators Kyl, Risch and Kirk have sent a letter to President Obama seeking more information on the administration’s interactions with Russia on missile defense.[57]

20 December 2010

President Obama sends a letter to the Senate, detailing the U.S. position on missile defense as it is affected by the New START treaty.[58]

22 December 2010

The full Senate votes to ratify New START, 71-26.

24 December 2010

Russia’s State Duma postpones ratification of New START in response to concerns about text of Senate’s resolution of ratification.[59]

14 January 2011

Russia’s State Duma approves amendments to New START concerning Russia’s own understandings on U.S. missile defense.[60]

28 January 2011

Russian President Medvedev gives Russia’s final approval to New START.[61]

5 February 2011

The United States and Russia exchange signed and ratified documents, bringing New START into force.[62]

24 May 2011

White House issues veto threat over FY 2012 National Defense Authorization Act’s inclusion of modernization commitment provisions.[63]
Ben Lerner

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