The South Sudan Peace Process Update

Today is the deadline set by IGAD (the The Intergovernmental Authority on Development is a trade bloc hosting peace negotiations) for which the U.S. president recently threatened to sanction South Sudanese president Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar if they did not sign a deal.  They did not sign but they do have 15 more days based on what was agreed today.

The process was genuinely complicated recently because two commanders among Machar’s rebels broke off and vowed to fight against Machar and Kiir.  It would not make sense for Kiir to sign a deal where two newly important rebel factions would not be represented to make assurances that they would cease hostility.

Further, a top official from Kiir’s party did sign a deal with Machar, Pagan Amum.  However, Amum’s signature doesn’t carry the weight of that which Kiir’s does.  With Machar weakened by dissension, his signature doesn’t mean much.  Machar’s connections to Khartoum made his signature almost worthless to begin with.  IGAD and the U.S. are under increasing criticism for pushing a deal without recognizing basic realities of each parties interests.

Always keep in mind when tracking the South Sudan civil war that the aloof role played by the U.S. always seems to work out for the genocidal Khartoum regime in Sudan.  The bigger story will always be how Omar Bashir played the U.S. against his biggest threat, Salva Kiir who once represented the West’s best hope for a strong African partner in the front yard of the world’s most dangerous terrorism factory, Sudan.