Russian offensive, Iraq prepares to fight IS, Iranian missiles, South China Sea tensions…

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Threat Information Office Headlines 10-14-15

Russia on the offensive in Syria as Nusra front calls for revenge

Air strikes continue in what is now increasingly a proxy war in Syria between the US and Russia.   Reports indicate that Russian strikes have been focused on the western region of the country, targeting primarily rebel forces, some with US backing.  The US-led coalition is concentrating its air strikes in the eastern region, which is mostly held by the Islamic State.  In Hama, CIA-trained rebel forces have been using anti-tank TOW missiles against Syrian army troops, which are supported by Russian air forces.  CENTCOM spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren said that in Aleppo, the Russian strikes may help IS in their bid to take control of Syria’s second largest city.

Currently, Aleppo is divided between Syrian government forces, rebel groups, and IS. The Syrian army is conducting ground operations to seize control over the whole city, supported by Russian air cover, Hezbollah brigades, and Iranian army troops, which have recently arrived.  In response, Nusra Front leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani released an audio message calling for “mujahideen in the Caucasus” to launch attacks against Russia.

Iraq also launches operations against IS, but US concerned over cooperation with Russia

Seeking to retake territory lost to Islamic State last year, the Iraqi army has begun launching air strikes against IS as well.  While there have been recent successes, including the killing of IS second-in-command Fadhil Ahmad al Hayali in a US strike, the Islamic State remains in control over much of Anbar province. The Iraqi army has announced that it is prepared to wage battle for control of the provincial capital, Ramadi, after slowly gaining ground throughout the surrounding countryside.

While this is a welcome development, the US is wary over the intelligence-sharing alliance Iraq has entered into with Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.   The US shares intelligence with Iraq as well, raising concerns about what may be passed on to Russia and the other alliance members.  Based in Baghdad, the coordination center reportedly provided information that led to an airstrike on a convoy suspected of carrying IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. While by all accounts he was unhurt, the sharing of information between Iraq and Russia will continue, as Vladimir Putin has been invited to assist Baghdad in conducting airstrikes in Iraq, a prospect highly unwelcome in Washington.

Iran showcases missile capability

An Iranian state TV station aired footage of underground tunnels loaded with ready-to-fire long and medium-range missiles today. According to the broadcast, this underground facility is one of hundreds of underground bases throughout the country. Iran is currently allied with the Syrian army and Hezbollah in the fight against Syrian rebels.

The US State Department has announced that Washington will address Iran’s missile test on Sunday, which is considered a violation of a UNSC resolution, at the United Nations. State Department and White House spokesmen have attempted to differentiate between the missile test violation and Iran nuclear deal. On Tuesday, White House spokesman Josh Earnest announced that countries could be more proactive in stopping the flow of ballistic missile technology to Iran, saying the effort “requires international cooperation” with Gulf allies.

Tensions Rise in South China Sea 

The Obama administration is prepared to send Navy vessels to patrol the man-made islands constructed by China in the South China Sea. Apparently, the Pentagon has given Obama a number of options on how to carry out this operation—i.e. the amount of armament and distance from the islands. According to the US, which historically refused to take sides in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, man-made islands are not considered sovereign territory under international law.

Ever since US officials publicized this strategy, China’s response has been firm, as they are developing military facilities in some of the islands, though China has announced that the construction is legal and essential to safeguard sovereignty.

Meanwhile, China has shot down rumors that it intended to send military ships and its aircraft carrier to Syria to fight alongside Russia.

Other stories we’re following:

Putin criticizes lack of US cooperation in Syria

US and Russian aircraft fly within miles of each other in Syria

Israeli army deployed across cities to counter Palestinian knife attacks

Taliban withdraws from Kunduz, remain on outskirts

Turkish PM warns both US and Russia over Kurd support

Suicide bombing kills 7 in northern Nigeria

Uganda begins withdrawal from South Sudan

Abu Sayyaf releases hostage video in southern Philippines

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