Islamic State Strike in Yemen May Reflect Change in Tactics

On August 29^th, 2016 a car bomb killed 71 people including 54 pro-government militia and injured more than 90 in the southern Yemen city of Aden. The bombing targeted a military base, where hundreds of recruits for a Popular Committee militia loyal to Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansar Hadi.

The term Popular Committees refers to various local militias, whether supporters of Hadi or his opponents, the Iranian-backed Shia Houthi rebels.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. Both Islamic State, and its jihadist competitor, Al Qaeda are active in Yemen, with Al Qaeda having long roots in eastern Yemen through their affiliate Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, while Islamic State established a branch in the country following the outbreak of civil war in 2014.

Al Qaeda stands in opposition to both the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels and has targeted both sides in the ongoing civil war. These attacks have previously allowed Al Qaeda to expand in southern Yemen, giving more power and control over resources. Al Qaeda had been very successful in operating in Aden as recently as 2015, but came under increased pressure from Popular Committee forces allied with Hadi.

Al Qaeda forces have typically targeted enemy fighters or military units. Al Qaeda has a strong presence in southeast Yemen, and the ability to successfully target the military base demonstrates strength. Directly targeting enemy recruits has been a favored insurgency tactic in Afghanistan and Iraq as well.

In comparison, Islamic State has traditionally favored high profile attacks against Shia mosques and gatherings. Recent attacks from the Islamic State include: Sana’a mosques bombing at Badr and al-Hashoosh, killing at least 137 people in March.

The profile of the August 29^th attack has more in common with Al Qaeda’s methods than Islamic States, and the change in operating procedures may be a reflection of internal divisions within Islamic State’s Yemen branch.  .

This attack puts the most recent death toll in the 18-month long Yemen civil war right around 10,000 by the U.N. and right groups. Conflict began in Yemen after Houthi rebels joined together with forces loyal to the ousted former Yemeni President Abdullah Ali Saleh seized the capital city of Sana’a and other key strategic territories beginning in September of 2014. Following a Saudi-led military intervention, Yemen forces loyal to President Hadi have retaken much of Southern Yemen.