Tag Archives: China

SAMs in the South China Sea Will Extend China’s Regional Control

In a recent move to step up control over the South China Sea, China has moved Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) on to Woody Island, part of the Paracels Island Chain. The island has been Chinese-controlled since 1956. Taiwan and Vietnam also have made their claims of control.

China has not denied or admitted the presence of SAMs on Woody Island, but only claimed China has had defenses on the island for years.

$5 trillion in trade every year go through the South China Sea, making it a vital Asian trade route. While numerous different island chains and reefs have been contested for years, China has ramped up its militarization of the region in the past 18 months.

Over the past year and a half China has drastically increased its construction of artificial islands, and has pushed itself further into contested areas. China even went as far to build on top of a reef already claimed by the Philippines in the Kalayaan islands. While Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Philippines have all constructed artificial islands; none matches the intensity of China’s effort.

China’s artificial reefs are becoming home to expanded airstrips for use with military aircraft. By expanding their military across the region, China will be able to dictate trade routes and who can trade. With no other nation being able to challenge the Chinese, they would simply have to play by China’s rules.

Aside from islands and reefs, the South China Sea is home to a plethora of natural resources, especially natural gas and oil. Securing the majority of these reserves would allow China to exercise greater energy independence and possibly become more involved in the oil market.

China has been rapidly militarizing over the past several years, and not just in the South China Sea. China’s military spending is suspected to reach up to $145 billion, a 10.1% increase from the previous year.

The U.S. has voiced criticism of China’s South China Sea activities many times, and has been patrolling the area to ensure the freedom of navigation. China’s foreign ministry has claimed its island construction will not interfere with the freedom of navigation or overflights, yet U.S. planes have been warned to divert their course when flying near the islands.

China’s placement of SAMs suggests they may be prepared to enact an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea, similar to the ADIZ they enacted in the East China Sea November of 2013. The danger in China establishing an ADIZ in the South China Sea is they would be establishing its borders far larger than the internationally recognized border.

The U.S. further tested China when it sailed a warship 12 miles off the coast of Triton Island, a Chinese controlled territory in the Paracel Island chain. While China did not engage the ship they warned the U.S. of future maneuvers that may provoke conflict.

Yesterday, Gordon Chang, a writer for Forbes and Daily Beast, was a guest on Secure Freedom Radio. Chang emphasized that the U.S. must work closely with regional countries to counter China. If the Chinese are able to get away with this, other nations around the world may try to close off their waters to trade. However, Chang was skeptical that any action the U.S. and regional countries take would drastically alter China’s behavior.

As China’s influence throughout Asia continues to grow and despite U.S. announcements of a “pivot to Asia” in 2011, U.S. ability to project power in the region remains on a decline. As a result, it’s likely China will continue to act to advance its South China Sea policy relatively unhindered.

China’s New Anti-Terror Law Is Cyber Nightmare for American Tech Companies

 

On January 1, 2016, China’s new comprehensive anti-terrorism bill went into effect. The bill was guided by President Xi Jingping’s overall outlook for the nation’s national security. The law’s main purpose was to create a statutory basis for China’s future anti-terrorism activities.  Critics are skeptical as the law really seems more to control the people rather than curbing domestic and international terrorism. The law is really represents the monitoring of information technology through strict surveillance guidelines.

Preliminary versions asked companies to turn over encryption codes, and other sensitive data for official vetting by the state before going into use. China’s new law has explicitly stated that information technology companies will assist police and security forces with decryption and technical support. China claims that this was a compromise they made from previous draft versions of the anti-terrorism law.

Li Shouwei, deputy head under the criminal law division under the legislative affair committee, noted “China was simply doing what other western countries do in asking technology firms to help fight terror.”

The law pertaining to information technology firms will impact foreign businesses set up in China like Cisco, IBM and Apple, all of which have big stakes in China.  Li Shouwei insists that the anti-terrorism law is legal, and that tech companies will have nothing to fear in terms of “backdoors” or losing intellectual property rights.

Prior to the passage of the Anti-Terrorism Law, China had passed a National Security Law, which was described as a means to improve the Chinese internet. Under new national security regulations all information technology would be “secure and controllable.”

The Chinese anti-terror law is, according to Chinese officials, a response to recent acts of terror in the Xinjiang province. From the Chinese point of view, the law is necessary to secure the security of its citizens, and prevent any form of social instability that may pose a threat to the economy or to the political party.

In reality, China wants to end reliance on U.S. tech firms by 2020 as part of its economic reform.  In 2014, Chinese officials, denounced a number of U.S. based companies that were secretly working with National Security Administration (NSA). For China, the means to eliminate foreign technology and replace it with domestic software is the perfect combination of national security interests and economic goals.

The Chinese are taking advantage of the U.S. by using American technology to create their own cyber network. The United States uses information technology to fight against terrorism, In contrast, the Chinese are using terrorism as a means to  spy on Americans and the rest of the world. The anti-terror law has little to do with physical threats to the Chinese people, and more to do with extracting and disseminating vital information.

Chinese officials say those who oppose the law are guilty of hypocrisy, noting the Huawei deal, and Americans a double standard on terrorism. The Chinese have used this anti-terrorism law as means to extend their overbearing powers on domestic and international relations. China will very easily find itself in more conflicts both domestically and internationally due to this law, but it’s a risk they are willing to take to remain a global superpower.

Electrical Grid Remains a Vulnerable Target to Nations and Terrorists

Today, Afghani and Israeli infrastructure were targeted by outside forces. In Afghanistan, the Taliban blew up a major electricity pylon in Dand-e-Shahabuddin area knocking out power to the entire region. In Israel, the Public Utility Authority was the target of one of the country’s largest cyber attacks in history.

Afghanistan and Israel will be able to recover from the recent attacks, but these events illustrate how susceptible a nation’s infrastructure can be. The Taliban were able to easily knock out power to an entire region without any high tech equipment, while the entire nation of Israel would have been effected if the attack was not stopped.

This is not the first, and certainly not the last, time an outside force has attacked a nation’s grid.

  • March 31, 2015, 44 of Turkey’s 81 provinces lost power for twelve hours after their grid was alledgedly hacked by Iran.
  • January 2015, cities and towns across Pakistan lost power after Baluchistani rebels attacked a transmission line.
  • June 9, 2014, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacked a transmission tower that blacked out the entire nation of Yemen.
  • In December 2015, Russia was suspected of hacking Ukrainian power stations, causing tens of thousands of Ukrainians to lose power.
  • 2013, the Wall Street Journal and Associated Press reported on several occasions when Iranians infiltrated the U.S. power grid and, on one occasion, a dam in New York.
  • 2010, a North Korean defector spoke with BBC Click about North Korean hackers began using Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) to target control systems of critical infrastructure.

Whether high tech or low tech, attacks on the grid can be carried out by anyone or any group. In the case of Yemen, AQAP simply fired grenades at a Yemeni transmission tower and blacked out the whole nation. With powerful nations relying heavily on electricity, it is imperative for nations to secure their grids and protect against a possible incursion.

As a well developed nation it is not enough to just prepare against high tech incursions. Securing servers and putting up firewalls will not stop an explosive or gunfire from ruining a system. The United States must prepare for a full spectrum of attacks from its enemies.

John Riggi, a section chief at the FBI’s cyber division, mentioned in a CNN article that IS had been attempting to hack into the U.S. grid, but have been unsuccessful. However, he later mentions that it is possible to gain the technology necessary from the black market. Some companies have been cited selling hacking equipment to oppressive governments.

Hackers have offered hacking training on internet forums for a small fee. The tools to hack into control systems on power plants and dams are easily accessible on the internet. Powerful nations and average people now have access to the knowledge to do critical damage to a nation’s vital infrastructure.

With all of these threats it is important for the U.S. to know who their enemies are. As the CNN article mentioned, while IS has been unsuccessful, they still have the potential and desire to hack our grid. U.S. Defense leaders are well aware of the threats We currently do not have a strategy to deter actors like China and Russia from proliferating hacking capabilities to other hostile actors.

Taliban Continue War Against Afghan Government Amid Peace Talks

On Sunday, January 17, 2015, a suicide bomber struck the house of a prominent, local Afghan politician Obaiduallah Shinwari. The blast killed 14 and wounded another 13. Shinwari escaped with minor injuries.

It is still unconfirmed who was responsible for the attack, but Taliban leaders have voiced their innocence. The second round of Afghan peace talks was set to take place soon, and some believe this attack was meant to disrupt any meaningful progress. The talks are meant to focus on a possible peace between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

The Taliban were absent from the first talks, but the U.S., China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan all took part. For almost a decade the government has been at war with the Taliban, and internal and external powers would like to see an end of hostilities.

Peace may be even more critical in the upcoming years as a branch of the Islamic State (IS) has begun its push into Afghanistan. Last week IS incited an attack near the Pakistani consulate building in Jalalabad. While ideologically aligned, the Taliban and IS remain competitors.

While the Taliban may not have been behind Monday’s bombing, they have done little to show their commitment to peace. This past September the Taliban overran the city of Kunduz after months of fighting government forces. The capture of Kunduz served as not only a military victory, but also a political victory. Kunduz was the largest city to be captured by the Taliban since 2001. While in the city, the Taliban released hundreds of Afghan prisoners into the streets and reportedly burned police stations.

Government forces were able to recapture the city of Kunduz, but their troubles did not end there. Just months later in December, the Taliban launched a major attack on the Kandahar airport, one of the most heavily fortified military compounds in the country. The attacks resulted in 22 military personnel and 9 Taliban being killed.

Later in December the Taliban attempted to capture Sagin. If the Taliban had captured Sagin they would have been able to cut off a key supply line coming from Lashkar Gah. The Taliban would have had better mobility in the north. Government forces were eventually able to stop the assault, but lost a police headquarters and the governor’s compound.

While Afghanistan, the U.S., Pakistan, and China would all like the Afghan government and Taliban to come together, recent trends would suggest peace is not on the horizon. The Taliban’s attacks on Kunduz and Sagin indicated the Taliban are trying to weaken the Afghan government militarily and politically. Currently the Taliban are attempting to control the Helmad region. Afghan and U.S. forces are working together to repel their attacks, but even if they stop the Taliban here there will surely be more attacks to come.

Back in October, President Obama issued a statement claiming around 5,500 American troops will remain in the country after he leaves office, but given the 10,000 soldiers currently in Afghanistan have been unable to positively impact the current situation, a downgrade will make matters worse. Given the failing strategy of the Obama Administration, it is up to the next President to thoroughly evaluate America’s Afghan policy.

Muslim Brotherhood bill in Congress, Islamic finance, Russian plane crash, China-Taiwan summit, Iran-Russia strategy in Syria…

Congress introduces bill to label Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization

After American allies Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, the question remains why the United States has not done so.  Yesterday, Senator Ted Cruz (R- TX) and Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R- FL) introduced legislation that would compel the State Dept. to report to Congress on the feasibility of designating the MB as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, which has been done for the Brotherhood’s affiliate Hamas.

The bill cites specific cases of the Brotherhood’s illegal activities in the US, including the Holy Land Foundation trial, which is the largest terrorism finance case tried in the US. The bill also references the Soliman Biheiri case, who operated the Islamic investment firm Baitul Mal in New Jersey which, “According to Federal prosecutors, the shareholders of Baitul Mal included al-Qaeda financier Yassin al-Qadi and top Hamas leader Mousa abu Marzook, both of whom are specially designated global terrorists.” The bill also cites violent attacks carried out by the Brotherhood in Egypt, including the targeting of Coptic Christians.

The Brotherhood’s history of supporting terrorism is well-documented.  Its various projects in the United States include front groups, political advocacy, judicial doctrine, and infiltration at the highest levels of government.  A previous bill that sought the FTO designation failed last year.

Islamic financing method growing in Africa

The African continent, long under served by traditional western banking due in part to weak state governance, is proving fertile ground for the expansion of the Islamic finance.  Attractive in part due to its no-interest clause, the shariah-compliant finance mechanism is promoted as an alternative suitable for countries and regions that are dominated by cash transactions and wary of traditional banks following the 2008 financial crisis. While large Islamic banks based in Dubai and other locales throughout the Muslim world have been established for decades, the potential for illegal activity is high with Islamic finance, as had been noted in the past.  Furthermore, the predominance of cash in under-served regions of Africa is a perfect conduit for the hawala system, which has also been exploited by terrorist organizations.

Russian plane crash mystery offers new clues

The investigation to determine the cause of the Metrojet crash in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula continues, with the ‘black box’ and voice data recorders now being analyzed.  Competing theories have emerged, ranging from the Islamic State’s Wilayat Sinai claiming responsibility via a bomb to mechanical failure to pilot error to an engine malfunction. Metrojet was quick to say it was caused by external factors, perhaps in a bid to undermine incompetence and lax maintenance charges by some victims’ families.

US military officials who have analyzed satellite imagery now say there is a flash to be seen moments before the mid-air explosion, which they say may have been caused by a fuel tank fire or bomb.  After their claim of responsibility was dismissed as ‘laughable’ by aviation experts, Wilayat Sinai continues to taunt investigators, insisting that they downed the plane and challenging them to prove otherwise.

China and Taiwan holding summit; first meeting between two leaders

China and Taiwan will be holding the first summit since the Chinese Civil War. President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan and China’s Xi Jinping will be discussing relations over the Taiwan Straits, in which China claims sovereignty and views the island as a “breakaway province which will one day be reunited with the mainland.” The meeting, however, has been condemned by Taiwan’s opposition, the Democratic Progressive Party.

Ying-jeou, who has made improving relations with China one of his priorities as president, will be stepping down in January. It is predicted that the pro-China Kuomintang will likely lose to the DPP, which promotes Taiwan declaring independence.

It is likely that this conflict will result in worsening relations between the United States and China, as the US is committed to Taiwan’s defense.

Conflict of interest between Russian and Iran over Assad, according to head of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

The Foreign Ministry in Moscow has suggested that there is a discrepancy between Iran and Russia, which are both allies of Syria, regarding Assad’s political future. According to IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari: “Tehran may be more committed to him than Moscow was.” A Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman has essentially confirmed this statement, claiming that Assad’s position “is not a red-line issue” for Russia, and “we are not saying that Assad should leave or stay.”

One of the main reasons why Iran remains allied with Syria is because Syria offers a direct route for Iran to reach the territory of its key ally, Hezbollah. In turn, Russia appears to be less invested in Syria, seemingly having a larger end game of negotiating with the West.

Although it may appear to be a harmful diplomatic divergence, it is unlikely to affect military strategy, as both countries have a common interest: preserving the Syrian government. Ultimately, it is the Iranian forces on the ground along with Hezbollah, the Syrian army, pro-Assad militias, and Russia’s air support that is helping to maintain Assad in power.

Other stories we’re following:

Russia and US fighter jets communicating over Syria

Syrian army takes Aleppo road supply line from IS

Kurdish Peshmerga forces low on supplies for winter fighting

4 police officers killed in bombing claimed by Wilayat Sinai

Erdogan: parliament should rush to amend constitution, grant more powers to president

Iran celebrates 36th anniversary of embassy takeover, protesters denounce thaw in relations

Ugandan opposition nominates candidate for President

Burundi president Nkurunziza offers amnesty to rebels

Dozens killed as Russian-built cargo plane crashes in South Sudan

Maldives president declares state of emergency; planned anti-government rally

ASEAN summit ends in disagreement over South China Sea

Turkey attacks Kurdish rebels, China’s military and intelligence expands, Iran jails Americans and journalists…

Kurdish rebels in Iraq attacked by Turkey, may turn to Russia for assistance

In what could be interpreted as a victory celebration of sorts, Turkish Air Force jets struck Kurdish rebel targets in northern Iraq yesterday, targeting bunkers and weapons caches belonging to the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK).  By conducting airstrikes in the Kurdistan Regional Government autonomous area, Turkey is sending a message to the Kurds: don’t get any ideas.  With AKP regaining control of the Turkish parliament, President Erdogan’s mission to bring Turkey’s Kurds to heel appears to be on track.

However, the Kurds are preparing to call on Russia if need be.  Taking advantage of Vladimir Putin’s goal of undermining the US at every turn, the KRG will soon open an office in Moscow.  Weapons sales may not be too far behind, as the fight against the Islamic State continues to rage in Iraq and Syria.  In control of much of northern Syria, along with the KRG in Iraq, the Kurds have the will and momentum to bring the fight to Daesh, boosted by last summer’s victory in Kobani.  But Turkey will continue to be a thorn in their side, and must be handled carefully so as to not run afoul of the US, which is also Turkey’s main ally.

Chinese military and intelligence capabilities continue to expand

China’s power plays continue, with potential for conflict increasing by the day if not checked.  Apparently, being a permanent member of the UN Security Council with nuclear strike capability and the largest military in the world is not enough to satisfy the hegemonic ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party.  In a bold move, a Chinese attack submarine closely followed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan as it approached the Sea of Japan, coupled with a flyover by Chinese fighter jets, which have been temporarily deployed to the disputed Woody Islands in the South China Sea.

In addition to its worrisome military maneuvers, Chinese intelligence operations continue unimpeded.  A Reuters investigation has uncovered a global network of radio stations owned through fronts by the Chinese government, which is consistent with the CCP’s political warfare strategy.  The stations present a neutral public face, but are in fact nothing more than mouthpieces for Beijing.  Unlike other government-funded media outlets that disclose their affiliation, the stations owned by China Radio International are operated through surrogate companies.  The report has launched an investigation by the DOJ and FCC, both of whom were unaware of the Chinese media operation in the US.

Iran continues its intimidation campaign against journalists and opponents

Following the conviction of Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, the Iranian regime continues its intimidation campaign against journalists and activists.  Arrest warrants were issued for a former deputy minister of culture and an editor in chief of a daily newspaper, highlighting the paranoia that the theocrats are experiencing as the February 2016 elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, which elects the Supreme Leader, draw closer.

Along with these arrests, Iranian state media is reporting that Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese-born American resident businessman, has also been detained and charged with espionage, bringing to four the number of American nationals held by Tehran.  The arrests appear to be ploys by hard-liners countering President Hassan Rouhani’s signals of improving relations with the US after the nuclear deal, which Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei opposes.

Other stories we’re following:

IS tracks down and beheads two human rights activists from Raqqa in Turkey

President Obama: special forces deployed to Syria will not fight on front lines

IS car bombs kill dozens of Arab and Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq

Israeli air force bombs Syrian missile depot close to Lebanese border

Iran hints at abandoning Vienna talks on Syria over Saudi Arabia’s role

Russia proposes talks in Moscow between Syrian government and opposition

Spain arrests three Moroccans in Madrid suspected of being IS operatives

Swiss authorities investigating up to 70 jihadi terrorism cases

Al-Shabaab claims killing of 30 Somalian Army trainees

Attack in Mogadishu hotel leaves 15 dead, al-Shabaab claims responsibility

CAR President Samba-Panza says UN peacekeepers ineffective as violence continues

 

 

 

 

China plans future, Venezuela oil company investigated, IS plot in Minnesota, Bangladesh attack…

China leaders meet to plot course in Taiwan, South China Sea, and US relations

The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee is beginning a 4-day meeting in Beijing to plot out the next five-year plan.  Among the highlights is a proposal to permit the international trading of Chinese currency, the renmimbi. These discussions come as the status of Taiwan is once again in the news. Beijing Politburo member Yu Zhengsheng issued a warning to Taipei that “maintaining no changes to the position that Taiwan is part of China is a sacred mission for all the sons and daughters of China.” Taiwanese elections are scheduled to take place in January and the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party is currently leading in the polls.

Relations with the US over the sovereignty of the South China Sea  continue to be tense, despite assurances from Chinese PLA Navy Admiral Wu Shengli that US-China naval relations are “the best in history.” Shengli was speaking to US Navy officers who last week were welcomed aboard China’s only aircraft carrier.  As the Chinese artificial island buildup increases, President Obama has authorized the Navy to sail within the 12 nautical mile internationally recognized boundary of the islands.

US launches investigation into CITGO parent company, Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA

Allegations of kickbacks, bribery, and money laundering of drug proceeds at state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) are being investigated by federal law enforcement agencies.  PDVSA is the parent company of CITGO, which operates three refineries in Louisiana, Texas, and Illinois, as well as licensing of gas station franchises throughout the US.  Former PDVSA chief Rafael Ramirez, who is now Venezuela’s ambassador to the UN and thus protected under diplomatic immunity, dismissed the claims as “attacks by enemies of the people.”

The sale of CITGO was floated by Ramirez in August of last year, but after receiving multiple offers, the Venezuelan government decided against it.  A Bloomberg analyst has valued it at $ 8 billion, which would give some relief to the cash-strapped Maduro regime, which faces upcoming parliamentary elections coupled with depleted currency reserves and a 160 % inflation rate. News of the American probe into Venezuela’s most important economic asset is likely to put further pressure on the regime’s financial situation.

IS claims responsibility for bombing Shiite Muslims in Bangladesh

Three bomb attacks killed one and wounded dozens during a Shia Muslim holiday Saturday. The attack took place during a morning procession in Dhaka. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack, releasing a statement on their apparent social media account claiming, “Soldiers of the Caliphate in Bangladesh were able to detonate explosives in a temple of polytheists in the city of Dhaka, during the holding of the polytheist rituals.”

IS has also taken credit for the recent killings of Italian and Japanese tourists in Bangladesh earlier this month.

However, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, claims domestic opposition is responsible for the recent surge in violence. Opposition groups in the region include Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladeshi National Party.

5 Somali-Americans indicted for IS conspiracy overseas

Five Somali-Americans, who were already charged with conspiring to aid the Islamic State have now been charged by a federal grand jury for “conspiracy to murder overseas.” According to US Attorney for Minnesota, the five men, three of whom have pleaded guilty, were charged in February for allegedly planning to travel to Syria.

Both Minneapolis and St. Paul have one of the largest Somali communities in the United States and this is not the first incident in which young Somali-Americans have attempted to join terrorist organizations; they have previously been recruited to join al-Shabaab in Somalia and jihadi groups in Syria. According to a September report, about 1/4th of all Americans charged with ties to the Islamic State are from Minnesota, a large majority of whom are Somali-Americans.

Other stories we’re following:

Moscow to permanently station troops in the Arctic by 2018

Russian submarines operating closely to undersea cables concern US officials

Maldives VP arrested in connection with plot to assassinate President

Two bomb blasts leave 42 dead in northern Nigeria

Congo voters vote on referendum to amend constitution for presidential third term

Argentina elections result in runoff, government backed candidate in second place

Western-back Syrian rebels to refuse any Russian military assistance

John Kerry: Israel, Jordan agree to reduce tension 

2 policemen, 7 IS killed in shootout in Turkey, according to police officials

White House: General Allen, US appointed anti-IS campaign leader, to step down

Russian Foreign Minister: Kremlin wants Syria to prepare for parliamentary, presidential elections

Yemeni forces, backed by Saudis, gain territory after battling with Houthis

US Defense secretary: US to increase raids against IS

44 killed in southern Pakistan suicide bombing

US, Saudi Arabia agree to increase support for Syrian rebel forces

Russia has deployed special-ops forces to Syria, according to Western and Russian officials

South Korean navy fires shots at North Korean vessel at maritime border

US, Turkey, Russia, Saudi Arabia discuss Syria; Palestinians call for day of rage; Russia and Jordan discuss Syria; Philippines turn over Chinese suspects

US, Turkey, Russia, Saudi Arabia, meet to discuss political solution in Syria
The United States, Turkey, Russia, and Saudi Arabia met on Friday to discuss a political solution to the Syrian civil war. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov before opening the meeting to Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Russia has conducted three weeks of air strikes against Syrian rebel groups opposed to Assad, including some US allies. Russia continues to ignore the western demand that Assad step down, with Putin hosting the Syrian dictator in Moscow this week.
The US official policy remains that Assad must step down; with Kerry stating that Assad is the central obstacle to peace in Syria. Russia on the other hand maintains that Assad is central to any political process. Russia continues to coordinate its air strikes with the Syrian regime and it’s other allies, including Iran and the terrorist group Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are the primary backers of Syrian insurgents  including Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra, and other jihadist groups.
The meetings took place in a hotel in Vienna and the talks between the four nations have unsurprisingly led to little progress.
Palestinian factions call for a “day of rage”
Palestinian factions are calling for a “day of rage” through mass rallies against Israel. After talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, Secretary of State John Kerry said he was “cautiously optimistic” about tensions easing. Hours after the call for the day of rage, a Palestinian stabbed an Israeli soldier in West Bank before being shot down by other troops. The calls for protest were backed by Hamas and the Fatah movement.
Most of the violence has been carried out by teenagers, with the attacker in the stabbing being only 16.; nine Israelis have been killed by Palestinian assailants since October 1.
The ability of key Islamist figures to successfully initiate “Days of Rage”, leading to an uptick in violence has been repeatedly demonstrated, as for example in response to the Israeli operation “Protective Edge.”
Russia and Jordan agree to military coordination in Syria
Russia and Jordan have agreed to coordinate militarily when dealing with Syria. A “special working mechanism” has been set up in the Jordanian capital of Amman. Russia has been supporting Assad by bombing Syrian rebel groups, some of whom have been trained in Jordan. Jordan maintains close ties with the US, so this shift in policy with Russia raises concerns about a lose of U.S. influence in the region to Russia.
Russia has already gained close cooperation with the governments of Iran, Iraq, and Syria.  Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov also met with senior officials from the US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to discuss the situation in Syria. The talks took place in Vienna.
Philippines turns over two suspects in China diplomat killing
The Philippine foreign ministry announced that it will give China custody of the two suspects involved with the killing of Chinese diplomats in the Philippines. All of the participants were Chinese nationals and held diplomatic immunity.
China says that they are still investigating the shooting and trying to figure out a motive, although there is suspicion that the shooting was the result over arguments over finances. The subjects will be prosecuted for murder in China. China and the Philippines maintain anextradition treaty.  
Other stories we’re following:
Egyptian Security Forces Arrest Muslim Brotherhood Leader    
 

Venezuela elections, al-Shabaab returns to Kenya, Assad in Moscow, Chinese espionage at NASA…

Venezuela extends state of emergency as elections loom

President Nicolas Maduro has extended the state of emergency in Tachira, which borders Colombia, for an additional 60 days. This means the right of peaceful assembly, among other constitutional rights, will be forbidden on election day (December 6) when Venezuelans head to the polls to choose parliament representatives.  The potential for conflict remains high, as polls show the opposition is poised to obtain a clear majority.

Venezuela has refused election monitoring from the OAS and neighboring Brazil, claiming its electoral system is “fraud proof.” Previous elections have been conducted under a cloud of intimidation by armed “colectivos” which are paramilitary groups affiliated with Maduro’s governing party. The upcoming elections are seen as a referendum on Maduro, who is leader of the country with the world’s highest inflation rate, a collapsing economy, and a murder rate that is among the highest in the world.

Report claims Kenyan al-Shabaab fighters are returning home

A report by the International Organization for Migration alleges that approximately 700 Kenyan members of al-Shabaab have quit the Somalian jihadist group and returned home.  There does not appear to be any way to verify this figure or how the IOM arrived at it. Given that al-Shabaab is not known to take defections lightly, there is a probability that some or all of these reported defectors may part of an Al-Shabaab infiltration operation.

Kenyan security is directing most of its counterterrorism resources to contain al-Shabaab, which is active and has carried out multiple terrorist attacks inside Kenya. The most notable incident, the Westgate Mall massacre in Nairobi in 2013, was carried out by Al Shabaab members, some of whom hide among migrants fleeing Somalia.

The report also makes the claim that if the returned fighters are not quickly reintegrated into Kenyan society, the “response of the security forces” will be perceived as promoting further “radicalization.” This is a direct challenge to the obvious need by Kenyan forces to conduct serious counterintelligence and security screening of the returning fighters, and appears another example of the larger effort to propagandize against Kenyan efforts to fight Al-Shabaab.

Assad meets Putin in Moscow to coordinate strategy

Bashar al-Assad has made an unannounced visit to Moscow, at least in part to express gratitude for Putin’s military assistance in Syria. In a transcript released from the meeting, Putin expressed that he was hopeful that the successful military campaign could be shadowed by a “political solution” in Syria. Assad exclaimed, “If it was not for your actions and your decisions the terrorism which is spread in the region would have swallowed up a much greater area and spread over an even greater territory.”

The visit apparently consisted of three rounds of talks: a closed meeting between the two leaders, and two others that included Russia’s defense ministers.

This visit reflects the Russia’s growing significance in the Middle East as Syria’s most significant ally. While Western diplomats have seized on Putin’s claims of interest in a political transition, Assad, backed by Russian military might presses forward to establish a military outcome that improves his likelihood of maintaining power.

Two NASA supervisors indicted for espionage in connection with China

Two NASA supervisors were criminally charged for “willfully violating national security regulations while allowing a visiting foreign national to gain complete and unrestricted access to the space agency’s Langley Research Center.” Supervisors Glenn A. Woodell and Daniel J. Jobson were indicted under 18 U.S. Code 799, which relates to a “violation of regulations of National Aeronautics and Space Administration.”

Supervisors Woodell and Jobson permitted Bo Jiang unrestricted access, in addition to allowing him to travel to China with a NASA-issued laptop. Jiang was former NASA scientist employed by a NASA contractor, the National Institute of Aerospace, and was arrested in March of 2013 attempting to flee to China.

According to former Representative Frank Wolf, who first made the case public, NASA and the Obama administration were not compliant in the initial investigation. Currently, foreign nationals and green card holders are “treated like U.S. citizens with unrestricted access to all parts of the space research facility.”

Syrian Kurds declare semi-autonomous administration on Turkish border, Ankara disapproves

The Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) has announced that leaders of the multi-ethnic town of Tal Abyad, which was seized from IS after heavy fighting in July, have voted to join the autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Syria.  The governing council is composed of Kurd, Arab, and Turkmen members, yet there are reports of Arab displacement at the hands of Kurdish forces.

This development displeases the Turkish government, which views attempts by Syrian Kurds to expand as a threat to their national security.  Turkey takes a confrontational stance towards the PYD, which it calls the Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization by both Turkey and the US.  The US has chosen to distance itself from the PYD, noting that its supply of weapons to rebels is not intended for them.  For its part, the PYD in alliance with other Kurd and Arab rebel groups, is reportedly preparing an assault on the IS de-facto capital of Raqqa.

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Iraq’s PM urged to seek Russian air strikes on IS

AFP: Canadian fighter jets withdrawing from Iraq, Syria

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Afghan forces backed by airstrikes battle Taliban in ongoing operation to seize area around capital

Russian offensive, Iraq prepares to fight IS, Iranian missiles, South China Sea tensions…

Threat Information Office Headlines 10-14-15

Russia on the offensive in Syria as Nusra front calls for revenge

Air strikes continue in what is now increasingly a proxy war in Syria between the US and Russia.   Reports indicate that Russian strikes have been focused on the western region of the country, targeting primarily rebel forces, some with US backing.  The US-led coalition is concentrating its air strikes in the eastern region, which is mostly held by the Islamic State.  In Hama, CIA-trained rebel forces have been using anti-tank TOW missiles against Syrian army troops, which are supported by Russian air forces.  CENTCOM spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren said that in Aleppo, the Russian strikes may help IS in their bid to take control of Syria’s second largest city.

Currently, Aleppo is divided between Syrian government forces, rebel groups, and IS. The Syrian army is conducting ground operations to seize control over the whole city, supported by Russian air cover, Hezbollah brigades, and Iranian army troops, which have recently arrived.  In response, Nusra Front leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani released an audio message calling for “mujahideen in the Caucasus” to launch attacks against Russia.

Iraq also launches operations against IS, but US concerned over cooperation with Russia

Seeking to retake territory lost to Islamic State last year, the Iraqi army has begun launching air strikes against IS as well.  While there have been recent successes, including the killing of IS second-in-command Fadhil Ahmad al Hayali in a US strike, the Islamic State remains in control over much of Anbar province. The Iraqi army has announced that it is prepared to wage battle for control of the provincial capital, Ramadi, after slowly gaining ground throughout the surrounding countryside.

While this is a welcome development, the US is wary over the intelligence-sharing alliance Iraq has entered into with Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.   The US shares intelligence with Iraq as well, raising concerns about what may be passed on to Russia and the other alliance members.  Based in Baghdad, the coordination center reportedly provided information that led to an airstrike on a convoy suspected of carrying IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. While by all accounts he was unhurt, the sharing of information between Iraq and Russia will continue, as Vladimir Putin has been invited to assist Baghdad in conducting airstrikes in Iraq, a prospect highly unwelcome in Washington.

Iran showcases missile capability

An Iranian state TV station aired footage of underground tunnels loaded with ready-to-fire long and medium-range missiles today. According to the broadcast, this underground facility is one of hundreds of underground bases throughout the country. Iran is currently allied with the Syrian army and Hezbollah in the fight against Syrian rebels.

The US State Department has announced that Washington will address Iran’s missile test on Sunday, which is considered a violation of a UNSC resolution, at the United Nations. State Department and White House spokesmen have attempted to differentiate between the missile test violation and Iran nuclear deal. On Tuesday, White House spokesman Josh Earnest announced that countries could be more proactive in stopping the flow of ballistic missile technology to Iran, saying the effort “requires international cooperation” with Gulf allies.

Tensions Rise in South China Sea 

The Obama administration is prepared to send Navy vessels to patrol the man-made islands constructed by China in the South China Sea. Apparently, the Pentagon has given Obama a number of options on how to carry out this operation—i.e. the amount of armament and distance from the islands. According to the US, which historically refused to take sides in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, man-made islands are not considered sovereign territory under international law.

Ever since US officials publicized this strategy, China’s response has been firm, as they are developing military facilities in some of the islands, though China has announced that the construction is legal and essential to safeguard sovereignty.

Meanwhile, China has shot down rumors that it intended to send military ships and its aircraft carrier to Syria to fight alongside Russia.

Other stories we’re following:

Putin criticizes lack of US cooperation in Syria

US and Russian aircraft fly within miles of each other in Syria

Israeli army deployed across cities to counter Palestinian knife attacks

Taliban withdraws from Kunduz, remain on outskirts

Turkish PM warns both US and Russia over Kurd support

Suicide bombing kills 7 in northern Nigeria

Uganda begins withdrawal from South Sudan

Abu Sayyaf releases hostage video in southern Philippines