Tag Archives: Elections

President Obama sends Diplomat in Wake of Nigerian Elections

The Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Linda Thomas-Greenfield has been commissioned by President Barack Obama to go to Nigeria to monitor the proceedings of the much anticipated Nigerian elections. According to a note made available to Journalists per the Office of the Spokesperson for the State Department, Mrs. Thomas-Greenfield will be leading the United States official diplomatic observations mission for the presidential election scheduled for tomorrow. The media note also hints that Mrs. Thomas-Greenfield will be holding high-level bilateral meetings with Nigerian officials while in Abuja.

“Nigeria’s first presidential election since the restoration of the civilian government could be a turning point for Africa” says John Campbell, senior fellow for African Policy Studies at the Council for Foreign Relations. Sensitivity surrounding these elections is for good reason. The Islamic affiliated terrorist group known as Boko Haram has been kidnapping citizens and committing heinous crimes for more than a decade. If the elections cause upheaval and chaos, Boko Haram will most certainly take advantage. From a civilian standpoint, whoever fits the bill to upend Boko Haram will be elected the new president.

On Saturday, Campbell outlines that a victorious candidate must have control of 25 percent of the votes in two-thirds of the thirty-six states plus the Federal Capital of Abuja along with the majority of the votes. The election will be watched closely, but all eyes will be on the elimination of Election Day corruption and violence.

Ambassador Greenfield symbolizes the first normal protocol surrounding the Nigerian election in what has otherwise been a series what seemed like diplomatic blunders that hampered U.S. ability to work with Nigeria in fighting Boko Haram.  Those seeming blunders were put into perspective when reporting by the Washington Free Beacon filled in the missing piece.  Namely, that U.S. policy toward Boko Haram and Nigeria were driven more by David Axelrod’s financial interests than John Kerry’s State Department.

Nigeria’s Election: The First to Peace and Stability Wins

The All People’s Congress candidate, Major General Muhammadu Buhari and the People’s Democratic Party candidate and current incumbent Goodluck Jonathan are less than two weeks away from one of Nigeria’s most historic elections. With the postponement of the presidential elections set for March 28th and the state elections to be held on April 11th, it has given Gen. Buhari more time to capitalize on Goodluck Jonathan’s military shortcomings in the fight against Islamic State-affiliated Boko Haram.

The rhetoric from Gen. Buhari’s camp is that his defense policy will be to combat Boko Haram aggressively and decisively if he wins the election. But this strategy against Boko Haram comes with a reality check. The lasting image of Buhari’s 1983 regime, which took power in a military coup, left much to be desired. Thousands of political opponents were detained without trial and their freedom of speech was suppressed. Buhari’s economic track record does not fare well either. In 1983, he unsuccessfully attempted to regulate the economy with price controls to combat currency depreciation.

Another important question to consider is how would a newly elected President Buhari deal with the Niger Delta. In 2009, Militants waged an armed insurgency within Southern Nigeria and halted oil production. Goodluck Jonathan’s administration made an economic treaty with the group, successfully quieting the disruption in a region that provides approximately 75 percent of Nigeria’s revenues and 90 percent of its exports. Many militants identify with the incumbent from the Bayelsa State and vow to return to their militaristic ways in the Niger Delta if Jonathan is not re-elected.

It remains to be seen how large of an impact ethnic, geographic, and religious lines will have on the election between Buhari, a northern Muslim and Jonathan, a Southern Christian. On its face it seems like Goodluck’s slogan “for the love of the country” might still give the current president an edge, but according to NigerianFM, a non-partisan media group, there is a 60 percent probability that Nigeria will elect Buhari. While many Nigerians still recall Buhari’s authoritarianism and failed economic policies, in the villages where people go to sleep at night in fear of Boko Haram, there’s a growing desire for change.

Boko Haram Makes Strategic Gains during Kerry Visit

Secretary of State John Kerry was in Nigeria on Sunday afternoon and met privately with current President Goodluck Jonathan, his opponent Muhammadu Buhari, and the head of Nigeria’s independent election commission. Kerry’s stated objective while in Nigeria was to discourage partisan conflict between Nigerian political factions over the upcoming election on February 14th. Mr. Kerry met with Jonathan at the State House, a meeting that involved a twenty-minute session in which the two spoke by themselves. Kerry then rode to the United States consulate, where he met the challenger for the Nigerian Presidency, retired general Muhammadu Buhari.

Buhari has focused his campaign on claims he will end Boko Haram’s reign of terror.  Buhari had previously taken power in Nigeria in 1983 in a military coup. During his time in power Buhari imposed austerity measures and restrictions on the press.  Buhari is seen to be favored by the predominately Muslim north while Jonathan’s base of support is the largely Christian south. It is reported that after their meetings, John Kerry won pledges from both to refrain from post-election violence.

Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit came with contingencies. He spoke adamantly that the level of American support would be influenced by the determination of Nigeria’s government to carry out an free and fair election on February 14th. “Bottom line, we want to do more,” Mr. Kerry said Sunday. “But our ability to do more will depend to some degree on the full measure of credibility, accountability, transparency and peacefulness of this election.” His pointed warning came against a backdrop of campaign violence by supporters of the candidates and a history of electoral fraud and post-election killings.

Earlier Sunday, Boko Haram carried out an early morning attack on the city of Maiduguri, launching a brutal assault on a military barracks before being repulsed. Boko Haram arrived at a military checkpoint outside the city, arriving in buses as if they were ordinary travelers, ambushing soldiers before they realized what was happening. In a separate attack, Boko Haram seized the strategically important city of Monguno. According to reports the Nigerian military was pre-warned of the impending assault, but still found itself unprepared, and while initially holding ground with support from a ZSU-23-4 self-propelled anti-aircraft gun, forced to retreat when ammunition began to run out. With the victory at Monguno, Boko Haram now controls towns sitting astride three of the major roads out of Maiduguri.

 

The Significance of King Cobra’s Death

After months of medical treatment and rumors he was ill, President of Zambia Michael Sata died last night at King Edward VII Hospital in London. Elected to the presidency in 2011 after many attempts to unseat his predecessor, and political nemesis, Rupiah Banda, President Sata was soon nicknamed “King Cobra” for his comebacks, his personality, but also for his sharp remarks and criticisms.

President Sata was most critical of Chinese companies and foreign investors in Zambia, often claiming them to be exploitative. The shooting of 13 workers protesting wages by two Chinese supervisors fueled his promise to protect the Zambian workers from all foreign investors, and did so effectively by forcing all companies that invested in his country to abide by strict labor laws. Zambia has a record of being one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most stable countries when it comes to political transitions. Therefore the primary focus of a Zambia post-Sata is what will happen to foreign investment. There is no frontrunner at this time in Zambia, but there is the possibility foreign investors could come flocking back to the African country.

Zambia is one of Africa’s largest Copper producers, as well as Cobalt. Copper is used for the following: electrical wiring, telecommunication systems. piping systems, and more. President Sata’s death now opens the possibility that foreign investors, especially Chinese, will rush back to Zambia. This all depends on who will be President after the elections to be held in 90 days. Should that happen, the United States needs to be prepared to act before another opportunity to gain influence on the African continent slips once again to the Chinese.