Tag Archives: Ethanol

Citgo: A Chavez-Kennedy enterprise?

Many of us have seen the CITGO, the Venezuelan-owned oil company TV commercials running across the United States, which promote discounted heating oil to low-income people. Some wonder how can this be possible: Hugo Chávez helping the poor in the US? Chávez has allied himself with staunch enemies of this country such as Iran and Cuba. He has even vowed to bring down the US government. So it is strange, to say the least, that the ads feature Americans expressing gratitude for the program. What’s really behind all this?.

NEWS:

  • Venezuela: Hugo Chávez raises nuclear plant idea. Chávez shifts ethanol stance to ease dispute with Brazil. Venezuela threatens no oil takeover compensation.
  • Lula and Chavez initiate Petrochemical Complex.
  • Brazil won’t join ‘Bank of the South.’ 20 die in Rio de Janeiro as drug gangs battle police.
  • Date set for Colombia-Venezuela Pipeline. Colombians march against FARC bombing. ELN say ready for talks on ending fighting.
  • Nicaragua: Ortega slams US ethanol campaign.  
  • Bolivian protesters seize gas pipeline to Argentina.
  • Perú: No negotiations with coca protesters backed by drug cartels.
  • Ecuador: Correa won the Referendum.
  • Costa Rica to vote on CAFTA.
  • Mexico: 100 police officers arrested allegedly linked to organized crime.  
  • Chile: Chavez apologizes for outburst against Chilean Congress.

View the full version of the America’s Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@cen terforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Latin America’s radical grassroots (part 2)

In our article "The Radical Grassroots" published on March 28, 2007, we discussed the potential situation generated by the emergence of new available masses represented in new populist movements in Latin America, formed by people who have been rather marginal in the political arena in the past. We also discussed the penetration of Islamists and Iran in the area as well as the role of Hugo Chávez as a catalyst and promoter of alliances between these groups and radical Islam. We saw that Hezbollah Venezuela is a pro-Chávez organization formed in the Wayuu Indian community, which converted to Islam.   Hezbollah Argentina is differing from its Venezuelan counterpart as it is not based on the Indian community but it includes radical rightists and populist elements both of which have close relations with local Arab Shiia’s and the Iranian regime. In this piece we continue to explore this issue and try to understand the deeper meaning of these partnerships, particularly in Argentina.  

NEWS:

  • Hezbollah claims it receives money from Argentina.
  • Venezuela: assuming chair of OAS Permanent Council (Organization of American States). (Organización de Estados Americanos – OEA). High stakes: Hugo Chávez plays the oil card.
  • Cuba and Venezuela turn against Ethanol.
  • Brazil: "Castro’s biofuels views are outdated." Rio’s governor to call the army to help fight violence.
  • Ecuador: Correa predicts win for Constituent Assembly. Ecuador wants Brazil to help to enter the biofuel market. Venezuela’s PDVSA and PetroEcuador to partner to develop oil reserve in Ecuador. Congress reconvenes.
  • Cuba and Spain renew bilateral ties during Havana Talks.
  • Bolivia: violence over natural gas. Morales’ MAS for Assembly deadline.
  • Colombia: car bomb hits police headquarters killing one injuring 34 people.
  • Perú may go to The Hague over Chile maritime border issue.

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org . If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

 

Pelosi’s proclivities

 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is clearly one of those women who want it all.   In her case though, this is not simply a matter of a lady seeking to have both a family and a fulfilling and successful professional life.  Rather, the first female leader of the House of Representatives evidently seeks also to be the commander-in-chief and the secretary of state.  

General Pelosi

The job of the former would be circumscribed, if not rendered impossible, by the legislation Mrs. Pelosi is currently pushing through Congress.  Her supplemental spending bill meant to provide resources needed to fund ongoing military operations would compel the removal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq by a date certain, irrespective of conditions on the ground.

Fortunately, the incumbent Commander-in-Chief is not prepared to relinquish the job just yet.  President Bush has the votes to sustain his promised veto of such restrictions.  And Sen. Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, seemed on a Sunday talk show to signal that even Mrs. Pelosi’s kindred spirits in defeatism are not prepared to follow her lead at the expense of the troops, whose funding is now being jeopardized.

Still, the message being sent by a Speaker who signals division in the face of the enemy is insidious in the extreme.  It encourages our foes, undermines the confidence of our friends and demoralizes those we have sent into harm’s way.  

Secretary Pelosi

Not content with such dubious achievements, Mrs. Pelosi has set her sights on Condoleezza Rice’s portfolio, too.  Using the Easter recess for a bit of globetrotting, the Speaker took her show on the road to Damascus.  Speaking of which, once there, she fatuously announced that "We came in friendship, hope, and determined that the road to Damascus is a road to peace."

Even the Washington Post was so outraged by this performance that it unloaded on her in an editorial last Thursday.  The paper called the Speaker’s statement "ludicrous," noting that her host and purported partner for peace, Syrian dictator Bashir Assad "is a corrupt thug whose overriding priority at the moment is not peace with Israel but heading off U.N. charges that he orchestrated the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri."

The Post justifiably savaged the Speaker for trying "to substitute her own foreign policy for that of a sitting Republican president."  It said that her "attempt to establish a shadow presidency is not only counterproductive, it is foolish."

Compounding our Energy Insecurity

What Madame Speaker’s Iraq and Syria initiatives have in common is a preoccupation with handing the Bush Administration strategic defeats for domestic political gain, without regard for the predictable and probably high costs of such behavior to the nation.  Now, that same dedication to such a short-sighted, tactical objective is evidently precluding effective action to redress America’s energy insecurity.

Specifically, reports from Capitol Hill indicate that Mrs. Pelosi has refused to allow action on the2007 DRIVE Act.  This legislation is modeled on the Set America Free Coalition’s Blueprint for Energy Security.  It would encourage important steps towards reducing what Mr. Bush has rightly described as the country’s "addiction to oil" by decreasing the U.S. transportation sector’s reliance on immense quantities of gas and diesel fuels much of which are imported from countries that are unstable at best, and dangerous at worst.

The centerpiece of the Drive Act is " fuel choice" – which would permit gas consumption to be cut through a number of practical, near-term steps.   These include greatly increasing the number of vehicles in America’s automotive fleet that can use alternatives to petroleum-based fuels (namely, ethanol – derived from various sources, not just corn – and methanol) and creating incentives for the production and distribution of such liquids.  The DRIVE Act would also help make electricity a widely used transportation fuel by encouraging the accelerated introduction of plug-in hybrids.  

Legislation along these lines was first introduced in the House during the last session of Congress with strong bipartisan support under the leadership of Republicans Jack Kingston and Jim Saxton of Georgia and New Jersey, respectively, and New York Democrat Eliot Engel.  Rather than allow the then-Republican majority a victory on energy issues in the run-up to a critical election, however, Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi opposed its enactment.  

Now that the voters have entrusted both houses of Congress to Mrs. Pelosi’s party, however, one might ask why the reintroduced, and vitally needed, DRIVE Act would still be hanging fire in the House of Representatives?   The conclusion seems unavoidable: The Speaker is unable to put the national interest before her partisan ambitions to deny this president any successes during his remaining time in office.  Unless she shifts course, it could be at least two more years before already overdue energy security measures are enacted.  

The Bottom Line

If Nancy Pelosi’s party is to have any hope of actually running the country (not to be confused with operating a "shadow presidency" that threatens to run it into the ground), the Democrats had better not only forego further negative measures like the recent meddling in Iraq and Syria.  They must also do something constructive.  A good place to start on the latter would be to take the lead in swiftly adopting the energy security program contained in the bipartisan, bicameral DRIVE Act.

Guatemala’s upcoming elections

By Constatin Schoeh Von Norman

Guatemala was the smallest country on President Bush’s recent Latin America tour. It was worth the stop, however. For good reasons: the Central American country has gained international weight and recognition after benefiting from widespread Latin American mistrust against Venezuelan representation in the United Nation Security Council. More importantly, Guatemala will go to the polls to elect a new executive and legislative branch in September. The core topic, however, is likely to be domestic security, as crime has been on the rise for years. It will be difficult for a female candidate with little experience in security issues to gain the confidence of a majority.

Alliances and new candidates emerge

The official campaigning for September’s elections is not supposed to begin before May 2 nd. Different political wings start to negotiate about coalitions and are already promoting new contenders.

Encuentro por Guatemala – bringing forth a new candidate

Rigoberta Menchú, the indigenous presidential candidate and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, stepped up her campaign this week when she was officially presented to party members of the center-left Encuentro por Guatemala (EG), for which she is running in September’s elections. She enjoys international recognition but is rather marginal at home, since she does not have any particular political experience and is not knowledgeable about economic and security issues. She gained attention when she won a case against five right wing politicians1 enacting a Guatemalan law against racial discrimination. Her political affiliation is with Winaq, an indigenous movement which has its base in the Mayan indigenous population most of whom live in poor rural areas. They comprise at least 40% of the most populous country in Central America (13.4 million inhabitants).2

The Latin American extreme left supports Rigoberta Menchú, especially Bolivian President, Evo Morales. His Movement towards Socialism (MAS) is sending a foreign delegation to prevent "foreign intervention" in the elections.3 In particular, Evo Morales has made connections with their common base in the indigenous population which has admittedly been neglected by most establishment parties and is gaining constant strength among the rising number of young indigenous voters. It remains to be seen whether a more radical elective alliance will transform EG`s agenda from center left to far left. This has not been the case so far but the influence of foreign leftist movements might change the campaign towards a more radical approach. So far Menchú’s primary tasks are poverty alleviation, more security and combating corruption. How EG aims to shape the state’s economic profile, market oriented or socialist "Bolivarian", is still to be determined.

Gran Alianza Nacional, last elections winner

The current president, Oscar Rafael Berger Promo, has enjoyed the support of the center-right coalition Gran Alianza Nacional (GANA). If the conservatives can avoid too many split offs, they are likely to win the election albeit the current domestic security crisis. Berger is close to a strong entrepreneurial class and has excellent connections to the sugar producing landowners.

Sugar is about to become Guatemala’s major agrarian expor t and might alleviate some problems resulting from the heavy focus on coffee and banana production. The world market prices for the latter export goods have not been particularly high during the recent decade which is a major reason for rural poverty. Berger’s current administration is facing strong opposition in parliament but has somewhat successfully managed to engage the war-torn country (civil war during the 1980s) in a reconciliation process. Also he succeeded in keeping taxes comparably low. Berger is barred from seeking another term. GANA’s current top candidate, Alejandro Giamattei, is only in third position for the coming elections. If he will make it into the runoffs he might get support from Patriotic Party followers though.

The Patriotic Party

Menchú is not the only one to already be on the campaign trail. The candidate for the right-of-center Partido Patriota (PP), former general Otto Pérez Molina, visited a number of towns around Guatemala City over the last week to sell his uncompromising message on national security. Pérez, who has denounced death squads operating within the state apparatus, said he had a strategic plan to purge and refine the Policía Nacional Civil (PNC), which would require increasing the budget for the PNC by Quetzal 200m (US$26m).4 It was Pérez’s PP which decided to call the current interior minister, Carlos Vielmann, to face an impeachment hearing in congress for his mishandling of the recent murder of three Salvadorian deputies and their four Guatemalan killers from the PNC.5 Mr. Perez Molina’s candidacy is further proof of center-right in-house competition. According to an opinion poll, conducted for the newspaper Prensa Libre, he is in second position in the current polls (10%).

Strong support for economist Alvaro Colom

The candidate, currently leading the polls is Alvaro Colom (20%). He is an economist by profession and finished second in the last elections behind the GANA candidate Berger. He has been leading the polls consistently. His candidacy is backed by the left leaning National Hope Unity Party (UNE).

CAFTA as a chance instead of a threat

There is hardly a Central American election which is not at least partly focused on CAFTA. Guatemalans have already tuned in.

Menchú’s electoral platform (EG) has vowed to renegotiate CAFTA in case she wins the election. In contrast to other left alliances, her program does not aim to decline the free trade agreement; but extensive negotiations on agrarian issues are well suited to water it down significantly. In particular, maize seems to be a target of domestic protection – as it is in many Central American countries. EG’s line of reasoning is based on the outstanding importance of maize in the Mayan culture. Mayan mythology considers man to be made from maize. Maize also happens to be the most important crop of Menchú’s largely impoverished indigenous followers who have good reason to fear US-agrarian competition on Guatemala’s market.

Independent economists would argue, however, that CAFTA can actually be more of a benefit than a threat for Guatemala. The Guatemalan finance minister, Hugo Eduardo Beteta, has indicated that the US and other foreign investors are interested in using Guatemala as a base to transport ethanol to North America.6 The heavy US tariff amounting to $0.54 per gallon on sugar-based ethanol from Brazil makes Central America and the Caribbean, which benefit from preferential trade quotas and some tariff-free ethanol trade under CAFTA and the Caribbean Basin Initiative, an attractive alternative.7 Guatemala has recently renovated its largest port, Santo Tomas de Castillo and is ready for expanding its trade.8 CAFTA can definitely boost Guatemala’s sugar exports and further promote an alternative product to low priced maize or coffee. Extensive imports of alternative energy from CAFTA partners can help diversify US energy dependency away from Venezuela towards economic partners like Guatemala. Latinnews summed it up by quoting the consultant David Rothkopf: "Latin America and the Caribbean have the potential to be the Persian Gulf of biofuels without the instability".

Criminality as core election topic

Guatemalan stability seems to be seriously threatened by organized crime and inefficient, corrupt and underpaid police forces. Recent scandals and the visible increase in daily violence will make this domestic topic the core of the coming election campaign; of more importance than economic justice or indigenous rights. The center right parties tend to have an edge over socialists on this topic because they have successfully conveyed the impression of distancing themselves from corrupt police officials and therefore a center bloc might be able to regain a bit of often gutted trust among the voters, in particular in the urban centers. Menchú, who has virtually a zero track record on fighting organized crime or restructuring police forces, will have a hard time becoming a credible alternative on this issue.

The recent killing of three conservative Salvadorian politicians has increased foreign pressure from Tony Saca, the Salvadorian President. The assassins were police officers and quickly got caught. They were killed in jail shortly after. Some have suspected imprisoned gang members taking revenge; others make a good argument that there is a conspiracy to cover up the principals of the initial crime.9

The scandals lead to a vote against the aforementioned minister Vielmann. His resignation has yet to be accepted by President Berger. The rise in crime is not just a recent trend. Guatemala has experienced an increase in violent crime since 1996. Gang crime, in particular, is almost out of control. The police forces are accused of responding with arbitrary executions of Marrero gang members (limpieza social).

According to a recent study conducted by the Instituto Centroamericano de Estudios Políticos (INCEP)10 Guatemala is rapidly moving up in the charts of Latin American fatal crimes: there were 5338 people killed as a result of violent incidents in 2005. That amounts to 37 victims per 100.000 inhabitants. Costa Rica in comparison has about 8 and Nicaragua 13 fatal incidents per year per 100.000 inhabitants. The clear leader is El Salvador with the scary number of 57, but Guatemala is catching up. According to INCEP President, José Dávila, the current number represents more casualties than occurred during the civil war. However, it can be said, that the current administration has made efforts to purge the national police and get regional support in training new recruits. Berger and Bachelet agreed that Chile’s carabineros would provide assistance in restructuring Guatemala’s Policía Nacional Civil. Berger said that Chile was the perfect role model because its insecurity and violence indicators are negligible.11 This focus on the successful Chilean example demonstrates that the current government is heading in a positive direction on this issue.

The outcome is difficult to predict

Bachelet’s cooperation with the center right government and Chile’s crucial role in promoting Guatemala’s seat on the UN SC show once more that the left is not monolithic in Latin America. It is by and large more comparable to the diversified European left which ranges from social democrats to socialists. The differences within different wings are clearly larger than usually expected. The different factions in EG are far from having synchronized goals: Menchú had to urge followers from her indigenous party, Winaq, and EG supporters to avoid infighting during a meeting on March 17th.

So far the outcome of the elections is far from certain. Colom is clearly leading the polls but might loose some votes to Menchú. It is almost typical features for Guatemalan elections, to have the second candidate of the previous elections have a good shot in the next ones. That support Colom’s claim.

Pérez Molina is quite well positioned on the topic of domestic security. If the majority of voters seek a strong hand, he might have a chance to overtake his opponents.

Giametti is far behind so far but will have stronger backing from the current administration as elections are coming closer. A lot will depend on how the current administration is perceived right before the elections. If Berger is able to strike a victory by successfully investigating the current murders, that might well benefit GANA’s candidate.

Menchú will strengthen her position and might benefit from foreign financial support and professional Bolivian advice so as to exploit the frustration of indigenous voters . So far she is way behind in all the polls (2%-4%). It is unlikely she will close the gap with the other candidates.

The elections are difficult to predict so far. Colom has excellent chances, though. The United States threw significant weight behind Guatemala’s candidacy for a UN seat on the Security Council in order to prevent a radical Venezuela from having a larger international stage. It is therefore important to help a pro-market, moderate candidate win the upcoming elections.

Notes

1 Including the grandson of Ríos Montt.

2 The German Foreign office’s country reports, available online on March 22nd at www.auswaertiges-amt.de/www/de/laenderinfos/laender/laender_ausgabe_html?type_id=14&land_id=53 .

3 Kate Joynes, Global Insight, All Eyes on Guatemala as Leftist Bolivian President Backs Indigenous Candidate March 21 st, 2007.

4 Latin American Weekly Report, Menchú wades into public security debate, March 22 nd, 2007.

5 Ibid.

6 Latinnews Daily , Washington Watch, March 22 nd, 2007.

7 Latinnews Daily , Washington Watch, March 22 nd, 2007.

8 Latinnews Daily , Washington Watch, March 22 nd, 2007.

9 See News Stories, The Ameritas Report, Vol. 3 -Issue 6 – February 22, 2007, El Salvador envoys slain in Guatemala, from El Nuevo Diario, available online at http://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/2007/02/21/internacionales/41936.

10 INCEP: Geopolítica de América y Perspectivas de Centroamérica; available online on March 19 th at http://www.incep.org/images/content/geopolitica.pdf.

11 Latin American Weekly Report, Menchú wades into public security debate, March 22 nd, 2007.

Latin America’s radical grassroots (part 1)

The emergence of Latin American neo-populism, as well as the political mobilization indigenous peoples, has created a new class of political prey for radical leaders and terrorist groups.  The Piquetero Movement in Argentina, indigenous movements such as the Zapatistas in Mexico, the CONAIE in Ecuador, the radical indigenous movement in Chile, and the landless movement in Brazil are some examples of this worrying and growing phenomenon.  This article details and analyzes the fundamental currents which underlie this new movement taking place in Latin America.

NEWS:

  • Brazil’s Lula visits Bush for Ethanol and World Trade Talks.
  • "Venezuela is a drug dealers’ temple." The Venezuelan Government seizes private land. Jews fear for future in Venezuela.
  • Chile: Trouble for Bachelet. Bachelet shuffles Cabinet. Chile and Japan sign free trade agreement.
  • FARC calls upon Lula and Chavez for recognition. FARC would accept US lawmakers in talks.
  • Bolivia: Morales may extend term in office. Head of state energy firm replaced.
  • Mexico: Zapatista "Subcomandante Marcos" launches countrywide tour praising Chavez, Morales and Correa. State Oil Company in Financial Trouble.
  • Cuba and Nebraska sign trade deals.
  • Colombia accused of violating Ecuador sovereignty. Para-scandal: Colombia amry chief denies role in 2002 raid.    

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

Ver la versión completa del Informe de Américas (PDF)

 

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

 

Bush and Lula sign agreement on biofuels

President George W. Bush just finished a week long trip to Latin America, the longest visit to the region of his presidency which included stops in Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil and Mexico. A key point of the President’s new strategic approach with Latin America is the relationship with Brazil. In his State of the Union address delivered on January 31, 2006 President Bush said: "America is addicted to oil", and has to find new ways of lessening this dependency. In order to overcome this addiction, Brazil could be of great help since it is the world’s most efficient producer of ethanol, a clean-burning, high-octane fuel that is produced from renewable sources.

NEWS:

  • U.S.-Latin America dance.
  • Venezuela: Chavez Issues Warning to political parties.  Venezuela to Give Currency New Name and Numbers.  Barbara Walters candidly Interviews Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  Venezuela disburses funds for Argentinian Sancor.
  • Interpol: Iranians Connected to Argentine Bombing.
  • The Dominican Republic: Fernandez raising money for re-election.
  • Bolivia: Morales accused of suppressing media.  Evo Morales will "call elections" in 2008.  ETA found active in Bolivia. 
  • Ecuador: Banking system threatened.
  • Chile: Bachelet Heads for Mexico.
  •  Conflict over Cuban Oil.

View full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@cen terforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

The Chavez-Kirchner alliance

While President George W. Bush was touring Latin America to discuss energy, education, trade exchanges, economic investments and immigration, across the border in Argentina a sad show began as Hugo Chávez lead a massive anti-Bush protest. Analysis of the organizers of the protest and their connections to President Kirchner who allowed his territory to be used by a foreign President to carry out a rally against another head of state with which his country had cordial relations.  

 The Ambiguities of the Kichner government

Nestor Kirchner has chosen a path that connects him to the most radical elements of the political left, namely, the Piqueteros who are enthusiastic followers of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. An analysis of Kirchner’s close ties the picketers and Hugo Chávez.

NEWS:

  • President Bush ends visit to Latin America (Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay and Guatemala).
  • Iran expanding presence in Latin America. Iran Air launches weekly flights to Venezuela through Syria.
  • Brazil says triple border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina is under constant vigilance for terror activities, especially Hezbollah. Bush and Lula: bio-fuel partners. Chavez urges Lula to review ethanol accord.
  • Al Qaeda financier’s cousin kidnapped in tri-border region.
  • Ecuador : Election Tribunal votes to fire 57 congressmen. Police Barricade Congress, Ecuador Leader Claims Triumph. Political crisis deepens.
  • Venezuela invites Hamas to Caracas. Venezuelan opposition leaders consolidate to fight Chavez. Coca-Cola subsidiary in Venezuela shut down. Chavez warns of US assassination plot against him; accuses Negroponte. Arrests have been made. Chavez will pay U$250 million to BP and Total for seizure of oil field. Iran-Venezuela agreements total U$8 billion. Venezuelans, alarmed by socialism, head to Florida.
  • Popularity of Colombia’s Uribe up to 72% despite "paragate" scandal.

 

 

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@cen terforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

China’s developing environmental crisis







China’s pollution problems cost it billions every year, but doubts remain about whether the leadership can muster the will to anything about it.

By Fred Stakelbeck


During a briefing on climate change in Beijing last month, Jiang Yu, spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, said that wealthier countries must take the lead in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, since they had been polluting for much longer. “It must be pointed out that climate change has been caused by the long-term historic emissions of developed countries and their high per capita emissions,” she said.



Even as Ms. Jiang tried to blame wealthier countries namely the West – for the world’s increasingly unpredictable climate, organizations such as the World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA) were predicting that China would pass the U.S. as the leader in emissions of carbon dioxide as early as 2009. But instead seeking common ground with interested parties, Beijing has responded by resisting any mandatory emissions restrictions that would impact the country’s meteoric economic growth.


This dangerous policy has placed the country in the midst of an environmental crisis. Weather-related disasters claimed 2,704 lives and caused approximately $27 billion in economic losses in 2006. Last year, record warm temperatures, unusually harsh sandstorms, coastal floods, acid rain and the worst drought in the county’s history left 17 million people with drinking water shortages. “2006 has been the grimmest year for China’s environmental situation,” Chinese Vice-Minister Pan Yue said in December. Respected Chinese climatologists and meteorologists agree the weather has been some of the most “extreme” in the country’s history.


[More]


According to a 2006 World Bank report, the country’s environmental problems include, “Land degradation, deteriorating water quality and water scarcity, severe air pollution and declining forest cover.” In December, a government report warned that climate change posed a serious threat to agricultural output and the economy. One month later, the former chief of energy research for China’s National Development and Reform Commission, Zhou Dadi, warned that pollution and climate change had become a “major constraint” on national economic development, saying the country’s plans to develop its vast western frontier could be jeopardized.


Three-quarters of the country’s lakes are polluted and more than 100 of its cities suffer from severe water shortages, periodically shutting down industrial production. The deteriorating water situation was made worse in November 2005 when an explosion at a petrochemical plant in Jilin City resulted in contamination of the Songhua River. As a result, the entire water supply to Harbin City with a population of nearly 4 million was shut off for nearly a week.


New data show that the country increased its power generating capacity in 2006 by an amount equal to the entire capacity of the United Kingdom and Thailand combined. In addition, the country’s urban population is expected to expand, from 430 million residents in 2001 to 850 million residents by 2015, adding to the country’s already severely polluted cityscape. These are staggering facts which carry enormous environmental ramifications if not properly managed.


Environmental questions surrounding the monstrous Three Gorges Dam project, the world’s largest hydroelectric project now under construction, continue to surface, with numerous critics claiming the delicate ecosystem of the Yangtze River Basin has been irreversibly damaged. With the project expected to be completed in 2009, any opportunity to stop its eventual completion has long passed.


Recognizing the deteriorating environmental situation and a need for decisive action, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking at the annual session of China’s National People’s Congress this week, said his country would make a concerted effort to reduce energy consumption and pollution, regardless of its impact on future economic production. “We should guide all sectors of the economy to save energy, reduce energy consumption and cut down on the discharge of pollutants and to avoid seeking only faster growth and competing for the fastest growth,” Wen said. The premier went so far as to predict that planned environmental measures could reduce China’s GDP growth from over 10 percent to approximately 8 percent.  


Premier Wen’s surprising statements come as Beijing prepares its first plan to fight climate change to be released later this year. The national program is expected to set broad goals for emissions from factories, power plants and cars, while also seeking to increase monitoring of the country’s changing weather patterns.


But despite much needed changes in government policy, the economic impact of any Chinese environmental plan will be the key factor moving forward. By some estimates, China is expected to overtake Germany as the world’s third-largest economy by 2008, behind only the U.S. and Japan. According to Alan Dupont, an expert on climate change and security at the University of Sydney, Chinese President Hu Jintao must balance increasing concern over the environment with government economic policies that deliver both sustained growth and jobs. “The whole stability of the regime and, as Hu would see it, the future of his country, depends on the continuation of economic growth of eight or nine percent,” Dupont said.


With so much at stake, what can Beijing do to stop this environmental calamity from getting worse?  


First, fines for domestic and foreign businesses should be strengthened, increasing the maximum penalty that has been mandated under the China Law of Protection of the Atmosphere. The State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) and the National Development and Reform Commission, a powerful economic policy-maker, are considering halting projects and carrying out ad hoc site inspections to stop pollution. This is a prudent move.


Second, a revision of existing tax laws on high-sulfur coals and the establishment of additional “coal-free” zones in highly populated cities should be pursued. Third, financial incentives and loans should be provided to companies that introduce energy efficient technologies, undertake research activities and develop environmentally-friendly products.


Fourth, the use of renewable resources such as bio-diesels and ethanol should be encouraged to reduce the country’s reliance on oil. Last month, China announced it will use 32.9 million acres of forestland, equivalent to the size of England, to grow trees specifically to make bio-fuels.


Fifth, improving vehicle efficiency and pollution controls for the millions of automobiles on Chinese roads will be a key goal in the future. Estimates suggest that the country’s overall energy consumption could grow 7 percent annually, even as the government attempts to expand its public transportation system with light-rail systems in urban centers. Carbon mitigation strategies which have focused on reducing emissions from industrial boilers and motors will need to focus more on automobiles.


Sixth, after a brief decline, coal consumption has again risen to pre-2000 levels. China is both the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world. Making matters worse, the country has thousands of small, private coalmines where environmental controls are virtually nonexistent. To address this problem, foreign investment in the coal industry should be encouraged to modernize existing state-run mines, improve safety standards and increase productivity. In addition, Beijing should continue to actively pursue coal liquefaction and coal bed methane production to reduce harmful fossil fuel emissions. Of course, wind, solar, hydroelectric, thermal and nuclear power should be pursued as clean and efficient alternatives to reduce greenhouse emissions.


Finally, and most importantly, Beijing must listen to its citizens. The number of complaints to environmental authorities has increased every year over the past five years, reaching several hundred thousand, while the number of mass protests, many ending in bloodshed, has grown. In December 2005, 20 civilians were shot by police in the village of Donghzu in Guangdong province for protesting the seizure of land by the central government to build a power plant. Beijing needs to immediately revise this confrontational and divisive strategy.


If permitted to continue, environmental problems will undermine not only the prospects for long-term economic growth and prosperity, but also threaten the health and welfare of country’s population. Beijing has a moral responsibility to its citizens, neighboring countries and the world to address this serious situation, since its environmental problems have a global impact.


Like it or not, China has become a major contributor to the global warming problem, joining the ranks of other developed countries as a habitual polluter. Unrestricted economic growth has seriously damaged vital natural resources and generated increasingly unnecessary environmental risks. As a result, the country’s communist leadership will need to demonstrate greater compassion, technological ingenuity and vision to address the developing environmental crisis. Only then will the country truly be viewed as a responsible world citizen and gain the respect of its population.

For your country

Last week, President Bush addressed the Nation to describe a "way forward" in the War for the Free World and its Battle of Iraq. Next week, he will give another address, one that may ultimately prove even more decisive in determining our success in the global conflict of which the Iraq theater is but one part.

On January 23rd, Mr. Bush is scheduled to report on the State of the Union. At the moment, it appears that he is poised to make the main feature of that report his ideas for addressing what is, arguably, the most critical threat to that Union: the United States’ persistent and growing practice of purchasing vast quantities of oil from people who wish us ill.

Walking the Walk

In the same speech a year ago, the President declared that America is "addicted to oil." Now, he evidently intends to do something practical about it.

Gone will be the misplaced emphasis on "the hydrogen economy." The promise of hydrogen remains just that – a promise. The solutions to our reliance on, at best, unstable regimes and, at worst, downright hostile ones for our energy supplies lie elsewhere. And, fortunately, they are closer at hand than hydrogen-related technologies and the infrastructure that will make them useable on a truly national basis.

The idea of obtaining more energy from off-shore and Arctic oil and gas deposits and accelerating the construction of a new generation of nuclear plants will continue to receive at least presidential lip service. But, if the President wishes to demonstrate real leadership and make tangible, near-term progress on energy security, his State of the Union address will also embrace other priorities.

The DRIVE Act

Specifically, Mr. Bush will endorse key elements of bipartisan bills first introduced in the Senate and House last year and modeled after an energy security blueprint drafted by the remarkably broadly based Set America Free Coalition. Now called the DRIVE Act, this legislation is expected to be resubmitted this Thursday by such leading lights as Senators Joe Lieberman, Sam Brownback, Evan Bayh and Norm Coleman and Representatives Eliot Engel, Jim Saxton, Mike Ross and Jack Kingston. The proposed act focuses on the central impediment to energy security: Our transportation sector is virtually entirely powered by oil-derived products (gasoline and diesel fuels) and consumes two-thirds of the oil we use in this country.

This dependency means that our society and economy – which are inextricably tied to the free movement of people, goods and services made possible by our automobiles, busses and trucks – are at risk of grievous disruption if either of two things happen: 1) There are disruptions in the supply of oil from overseas sources and/or 2) the price of oil products goes through the roof. Even in the absence of such untoward events, we know that some of the hundreds of billions of dollars we transfer each year to various petroleum-exporting nations are winding up in the hands of terrorists.

This is not simply an addiction. It is a death wish, an irresponsible invitation to disaster for America and other freedom-loving nations.

Choice for American Drivers

The solution is to provide something currently missing in our transportation sector – vehicle and fuel choice. The former would involve affording consumers and businesses the opportunity to acquire vehicles powered not just by gasoline or diesel, but by alternative fuels like ethanol and methanol. There are already some 5 million cars on America’s highways equipped with this "Flexible Fuel Vehicle" (FFV) capability. At a marginal cost of less than $150 per car, there is no reason why henceforth every vehicle sold in this country is not required to be an FFV.

In order to meet the increasing demand for such alternative energy, efficient production and widespread distribution of these fuels would need to be undertaken. The Vehicle and Fuel Choice bills would provide incentives to expand greatly the availability and access to such fuels.

Even more dramatic fuel savings can be achieved – both in terms of the costs and the consumption of foreign oil – if millions of Americans start driving not just fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles, but FFV-capable plug-in hybrids (PIH) with 500 mile-per-gallon-of-gasoline (mpgg) performance. The latter’s batteries can be charged off the electrical grid (which is almost entirely powered by non-oil fuels) and operate for upwards of twenty miles without using a drop of gasoline, and for a fraction of the cost of oil-based fuels.

Another hugely promising development was unveiled by General Motors on January 7th: its Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid on steroids. The Volt’s battery would permit forty-miles of travel between charges – enough to allow most American drivers not to use gasoline at all. To enable this sort of performance, however, the United States is going to have to become self-reliant in another critical technology: the production of advanced, high-performance lithium-ion batteries. Laying the groundwork for such an effort is another feature of the broadly supported DRIVE legislation virtually certain to become law this year.

The Bottom Line

The time has come for George W. Bush to take a page from one of the most famous addresses to the Nation in our history: John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address in 1961. Just as JFK called on Americans to "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country," Mr. Bush must now urge our citizens to do something specific for their country – and its future safety and economic well-being: Help retool the U.S. automotive fleet on an accelerated basis, replacing gas-guzzling vehicles with new FFVs, hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Do it not just out of self-interest. Do it for your country.

Securing America’s energy needs

Seemingly unrelated events of the past week suggest considerable trouble ahead for U.S. vital interests. As President Bush puts the finishing touches on his plans for a new strategy for waging the War for the Free World, he had best make sure that he focuses not only on Iraq and Iran (as recommended in this space last week) but on energy security, as well.

Consider the following developments:

On the eve of last week’s United Nations Security Council vote on sanctions supposed to isolate Islamofascist Iran over its nuclear weapons ambitions, Communist China agreed to invest an additional $16 billion in the Iranian North Pars natural gas fields (on top of the more than $100 billion already committed by the PRC to other energy projects in the country). The latest memorandum of understanding, signed by Tehran and CNOOC, China’s biggest offshore oil producer, would involve the exploitation of the North Pars fields and the construction of Iranian liquefied natural gas facilities, whose products would then be exported to China.

This deal was of a piece with other actions taken by Moscow and Beijing to water-down the UN sanctions resolution to the point where it was virtually a dead-letter even before it was adopted. The President can expect many more such pyrrhic victories now that his faithful lieutenant, John Bolton, has been forced to leave the Turtle Bay portfolio to the tender mercies of lowest-common-denominator-minded State Department diplomats like Under Secretary Nick Burns.

Last week, the Financial Times of London reported that Gazprom – the government-owned gas company that epitomizes the increasingly fascistic character of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and serves increasingly blatantly as an instrument of state power – "cement[ed] the Kremlin’s grip on the country’s energy resources." It did so by euchring several foreign oil companies, led by Royal Dutch Shell into ceding majority control over Siberia’s lucrative Sakhalin 2 oil and gas project.

The cynical way in which this shakedown was accomplished is typical of Putin’s heavy-handed behavior on other matters, from the protection racket he and his Chinese allies are running for the North Koreans, Sudanese and Iranians at the UN to the liquidation of his enemies at home and abroad. After the Kremlin maintained for months that environmental concerns precluded necessary approvals from being issued to Shell and its Japanese partners, the moment Gazprom secured its controlling majority, such concerns miraculously disappeared.

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. law enforcement officials are attempting to unravel the myriad, complex and deliberately confusing ties between one of the FBI’s most wanted men, Russian mafia kingpin Semion Mogilevich, and "multi-billion gas deals between Russia and Ukraine." The Journal reports that American concerns about such ties have "only grown as Russia has tightened its grip on the vast oil and gas resources of Central Asia and shown a growing willingness to brandish energy as a political weapon. The European Union gets a quarter of its natural gas from Russia, most of which is shipped by pipeline across Ukraine."

Seasoned Kremlin-watchers are hardly surprised by this investigation. In fact, as Putin has moved to secure absolute power in Russia, he has relied heavily on fellow alumni of the Soviet KGB and other security services. The ranks of the Russian mafia were swelled by such operatives after the USSR collapsed and those "power ministry" veterans who now populate virtually every key position in Putin’s regime have found it expedient to use their erstwhile colleagues in the underworld as surrogates in wielding state power in "plausibly deniable" ways.

A Growing Threat to our Energy Security

What these events have in common is the rising danger that the West’s energy security will be ever-more at the mercy of foreign governments hostile to freedom and its friends. As the Communist Chinese and fascistic Russian regimes move to forge close relations with energy-rich nations like Iran, Libya, Sudan, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Saudi Arabia, and as the Kremlin consolidates its control over Russia’s own vast resources, America and her allies will find themselves increasingly imperiled by their dependency on such sources for oil products and/or natural gas.

As a result, President Bush needs to make increased U.S. energy security a central part of the overhauled war-fighting strategy that he is set to announce next month. To do so, he must clearly go beyond the lip service that he paid to our "addiction to oil" in last year’s State of the Union speech by taking steps that will make a difference.

Done properly, energy security could be one of the most promising areas for cooperation between the Bush Administration and Democrats in Congress. By concentrating on areas where considerable progress is possible (rather than on such neuralgic issues as drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge or increased CAFE fuel-efficiency standards), America – and in particular its gas-guzzling transportation sector – could be made significantly less reliant on oil supplied by unstable or hostile regimes.

The Bottom Line

Such a course of action has been laid out in a blueprint produced by the Set America Free Coalition – a group spanning the political spectrum – that forms the basis for the bipartisan, bicameral Vehicle Fuel Choices for American Security Act (introduced in the last session of Congress as S.2025 in the Senate and H.R. 4409 in the House). It entails two principal steps: 1) ensuring that all cars sold in America will be Flexible Fuel Vehicles, capable of burning not just gasoline but ethanol and methanol (or some combination thereof); and 2) assuring the availability of substantially increased quantities of such alternative fuels.

This legislation would also help make electricity a true transportation fuel, by promoting the manufacture of plug-in hypbrid vehicles. Since scarcely any electricity is generated in America by burning oil, the widespread use of such vehicles could greatly reduce our dependence on foreign sources of petroleum. To realize the full potential of this option, however, President Bush and the Congress will need to join forces on one other important initiative: assuring large-scale U.S. production of advanced lithium ion batteries, an essential ingredient for our future energy – and national – security and the competitiveness of our auto industry.