Tag Archives: IS

Tunisia Feeling Pressure from Increased IS Presence

Earlier today, March 7, 2016, Islamic State (IS) followers attacked Tunisian soldiers and police officers in the town of Ben Guerdan, near the Tunisia-Libyan border. The Tunisian government reported that up to 50 people were killed in the raid.

The deteriorating conditions in North Africa have allowed for IS to establish a strong presence in the region. IS has been able to make its way into Egypt and Libya, and taken advantage of a large jihadist recruiting pool from Tunisia. It is believed that over 3,000 Tunisians have gone to fight for IS in Iraq and Syria, making Tunisia the largest contributor in the region. Just recently, the U.S. was able to kill a Tunisian operative in Sabratha, Libya who was training recruits to fight for IS.

Tunisia has been the one Arab Spring country that has been touted as a success, yet thousands have left its borders to fight for IS. Groups like Ansar al-Sharia were able to infiltrate the country and convert Tunisians to join the jihad after the Arab Spring. This jihadist sentiment has continued to plague the country as many have left to fight in the name of Islam. One young Tunisian stated “The Islamic State is a true caliphate, a system that is fair and just, where you don’t have to follow somebody’s orders because he is rich or powerful.”

While ideology is likely the primary motive for Tunisians joining the jihad, there are other factors that may be pushing those unsure of what to do towards IS and other groups. Tunisia currently has a prison system that is over 130% capacity. This leaves inmates in close proximity with convicted terrorists, where inmates are susceptible to indoctrination and recruitment.

Aside from the overcrowded prisons, Tunisia’s economy has been failing.

While young Tunisians may cite ideological reasons to why they joined IS, some have bragged of the better economic and social environment living under IS as well. If Tunisia does not improve its economic and social issues that have plagued the country, young people may choose to fulfillment instead in jihadist ideology.

The growing support for IS among Tunisians threatens both neighboring countries and Tunisia itself. The continued unrest provides IS operatives in Libya the perfect cover to enter the country and carry out further attacks within Tunisia.

Tunisia has been stepping up it preparations for potential incursions from IS. Earlier in February, the government built a 125-mile-long trench along the Libya-Tunisia border in hopes of keeping out terrorists. The government has also sought help from Western governments, who have since sent help to train border forces. British troops arrived in Tunisia earlier in February to help defend from IS.

Aside from border control, the Tunisian government recently accepted a plan to allow for German troops to train Libyan government forces inside their borders. Tunisia realizes the potential harm IS will inflict if they are able to establish itself inside its borders, and are doing everything it can to stop the future inflow.

Tunisia has repeatedly been targeted by IS, including the Bardo Museum attack in Tunis last March that killed 23 and the targeting a hotel in Sousse last June killing 38. In addition to targeting the tourism industry IS has also targeted Tunisian security forces, with bus bombing targeting Tunisian presidential guards killing 12 last November.

Tunisia currently faces grave danger from IS. Today’s incursion illustrates that the border is not secure despite foreign military advisors and border security improvements.

Islamic State Defaults to Terror in Response to Setbacks

On Sunday, March 6, 2016, The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a truck bombing on the town of Hilla, killing at least 60 and wounding another 70. The group drove a truck, laden with explosives, into the Babylon ruins checkpoint at the entrance of the city.

This attack comes just a week after IS targeted the city of Sadr, killing over 70 people. Besides the attack on Sadr, IS targeted a Iraqi security forces positons and a funeral, which was attended by several commanders of the local Shiite, Iranian-backed militia, Asaib al- Haq (AAH). AAH has been combating IS since 2011. The militia group has also been active in Syria where it has been aiding Hezbollah.

Since losing their stronghold in Ramadi, IS has seemed to increase their strikes in Iraq. In February alone it is suspected that over 670 people were killed by IS.

With IS losing some ground, they may be increasing their attacks to slow down the advance of Iraqi security forces. By having the Iraqi military focus further on civilian targets outside of IS held territory, there will be little opposition to IS in northern Iraq, which is largely governed by IS.

Just as IS has increased attacks, so has the U.S. Last week an administration official announced the U.S. army’s elite Delta Force would restart capture and kill missions of IS commanders. The day after this activity was announced the group captured a high level operative in IS.

Last year Delta Force killed ranking IS leader Abu Sayyaf, and captured his wife, Umm Sayyaf, who has been reportedly been of great intelligence value due to her knowledge of IS networks, which was exploited to field subsequent raids on IS officials.

The U.S. and its allies also conducted up to 18 strikes on IS positions yesterday in northern Iraq.

These increased attacks may hinder IS operations by killing or capturing high level commanders, but it may also be pushing IS to increase their attacks against civilian targets. Iraqi and U.S. forces have now proven they are capable of successfully targeting IS and reclaiming valuable territory. This success will drive IS to seek ways of slowing these operations at the expense of civilian lives.

Iraq is not the only place IS is losing ground, however. In Syria the group is territory on the Syria-Turkey border as well as territory along the Iraq-Syria border. To make matters worse for IS, a recent video reportedly shows dozens of former IS fighters deserting the groups for a rival faction.

IS has long been a formidable enemy, but it seems that U.S. and Iraqi forces may be moving in the right direction to take back more territory from the group. IS is losing territory and support in both Iraq and Syria, and continued strikes on strategic positions and leadership targeting may be able severely hamper IS operations. However, the more ground taken by anti-IS forces, the more IS will target soft targets in Syria and Iraq, further putting civilians in danger.

IS Attacks Funeral

Earlier today, February 29, 2016, the Islamic State (IS) attacked a funeral held for a relative of a Shiite militia commander in Muqdadiyah, Iraq. A suicide bomber detonated his explosive killing at least 40 while wounding another 60. Among the dead are four commanders of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), a Shiite militia group.

AAH has been combating IS since 2011. The Iranian-backed militia group has also been active in Syria where it has been aiding Hezbollah. AAH seeks to keep a Shiite and Iranian influence within Iraq and has been known to use violence in the past against Iraqi Sunnis for the Maliki government.

Today’s attack comes just a day after IS targeted a Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad killing 72 and wounding another 112. A parked motorcycle detonated just outside a busy market followed by a suicide bomber detonating his vest while bystanders attended to victims of the first blast.

Iraqi Sunnis have expressed their desire to help fight IS, but recently Shiite militias have been targeting Sunni mosques and civilians at the risk of pushing Sunni citizens towards IS.

IS launched another attack yesterday targeting police and military forces in Abu Ghraib. IS was able to launch an assault on security forces positions after taking control of a grain silo in the area and firing upon security forces. All the IS fighters were killed in the assault, but the fighters were able to destroy a police station after detonating three car bombs. Six soldiers were killed and another 14 were wounded.

About two months ago IS lost one of their strongholds, Ramadi, to Iraqi forces. However, since losing Ramadi, IS has launched a number of attacks around Iraq proving they are far from defeated. Even worse, IS may be increasing the scope of damage they seek to achieve. An Iraqi explosive expert mentioned to news sources that the explosive used at the Baghdad market were the largest he has seen IS use.

Amid these increased attacks, the U.S. may be sending some extra help to combat IS. The initial increase in commitment to Iraq came in the form of military contractors. IBTimes reports that the number of contractors hired by the Pentagon has gone up eightfold. In just a year the number of contractors within Iraq grew from 250 to 2,300. This number just represents those hired by the Pentagon. There are thousands more contractors within Iraq, with around 5,800 being hired by the state Department alone.

Besides contractors, the U.S. military may be prepared to have elite Special Forces operators from the army’s Delta Force target IS leadership in Iraq. An anonymous source mentions the group had been in Iraq for several weeks setting up covert preparations. Some of these preparations include setting up safe houses, establishing informant networks and coordinating operations with Iraqi and Peshmerga units.

IS may have been dealt a setback after the loss of Ramadi, but they are far from being defeated. The group has illustrated the scope of their reach by launching attacks well beyond their areas of control, and it is unclear if taking back territory will necessarily slow them down. With the potential increased support from the U.S. military, it may be possible to hinder IS operations, but Iraqi and U.S. forces should be prepared for a long fight.

IS Strengthening its Presence in Gaza

Breitbart Jerusalem reports that the Israeli Treasury Department is applying sanctions on three IS leaders tied to financing operations. One of these leaders was Husayn Juaythini, who facilitated the communications and movement of foreign fighters as well as conducted financial activities in support of IS. Juaythini was responsible for creating a base of operations within Gaza, and it appears he has been successful.

A base in Gaza allows IS to launch attacks against Israel, as they have done on several occasions. IS already has a branch in Egypt, the Islamic State in the Sinai (ISS), which despite initially being created as a jihadist group to attack Israel predominantly focuses on fighting the Egyptian government. If IS is able to establish a strong enough branch in Gaza, it will be able to launch attacks on Israel without taking away from their fight against El-Sisi.

IS has been able to gain a foothold into Gaza in part through cooperation with Hamas, the dominant terrorist organization in the area. ISS has been trading missile material in return for money, and it now appears Hamas may be allowing the group to operate inside its territory. Hamas has also allowed ISS to send wounded troops to Gaza for medical treatment away from the Egyptian government.

Hamas is a Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Founded in 1987, the organization’s primary goal is to bring about the destruction of Israel. To better increase its ability to combat the Israelis, Hamas established itself as one of the major political parties in the Palestinian territories, and since 2007 it has been dominated politics in the region.

The Free Fire Blog discussed the cooperation between the Islamic State (IS) and Hamas in the past, and this cooperation may be expanding as IS has been reportedly establishing a base in the Gaza region.

Hamas was originally hostile to IS’s presence in Gaza, but IS has reportedly gained support in Gaza, following a series of attacks on Israel. Hamas, which has not wanted to provoke another conflict with Israel, began to crack down on IS supporters. One IS sympathizer was killed during the crackdown, but relations between the two terror organizations simmered since then.

IS may be growing at a time when Hamas is growing weaker. Hamas specialist Johnathan Schanzer  notes a potential rift within Hamas’s ranks following the execution of former Hamas official Mahmoud Eshtiwi. Hamas leadership claimed Eshtiwi was killed for ‘‘moral and behavioral violations,’’ but never violations were never named. The new Free Qassam Members believe the execution was carried out due to Eshtiwi challenging al-Qassam Brigades leadership, and will be launching investigations into the matter.

This schism could be dangerous for Hamas if the breakaway faction joins the ranks of IS. Both groups have been able to work together, but IS may see an opportunity to gain further control of Gaza while Hamas is reorganizing.

Hamas has yet to recover from the last war with Israel, and their leadership has reportedly been locked in competition for some time. IS could be able to use this disorder to its advantage and take some control away from Hamas, or back a Hamas leader they believe to be sympathetic towards the Islamic State.

Even with Hamas still in power over Gaza, the current IS presence is a great danger to Israel. While the Gaza camp has been primarily used for training fighters and caring for wounded, it gives the group a strong strategic position against Israel. Although the Israeli Treasury Department issued sanctions against IS leaders, its unlikely to slow down the group’s growth in the region.

Libyan Military’s Successes in Benghazi Drive Fear into Illegitimate Government

Early yesterday, February 23, 2016, Libyan government forces led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar reclaimed two major sections of Benghazi, Libya’s second largest city. The government has been pushing to reclaim the city for years, and today’s victory will serve as a major morale boost and sign the government is capable to expel Islamist groups from major cities.

The government forces were reportedly met with cheers, as Islamist fighters belonging to several different jihadist groups, including Islamic State and the Al Qaeda affiliate Ansar Al Sharia were pushed out.

While this victory is a massive morale boost for the Tobruk government, it may serve as an impediment to unity talks. Gen. Haftar is a vocal opponent of all Islamist factions in Libya, including the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Libyan Dawn faction in Tripoli, which is currently engaged in unity talks with the legitimate government in Tobruk. One MP in Tripoli has called Gen. Haftar a “dictatorial coup leader.”

Further complicating the situation in Libya, Le Monde, a French newspaper, reported that French Special Forces have been actively engaged in covert operation against the Islamic State. The Huffington Post Arabic claims that the French forces are also supporting Gen. Haftar’s campaign against Islamists, but this statement is unconfirmed. Huffington Post Arabic is known to be pro-Muslim Brotherhood, and this would give them the motive to suggest any activity that could slow down Gen. Haftar’s push against Islamists.

France’s Defense Ministry declined to comment on the claims, but they will be launching an investigation into who leaked the information to Le Monde. The article also quoted a French Defense Official saying “The last thing to do would be to intervene in Libya. We must avoid any overt military engagement, but act discreetly.”

France has increased military activity in the region after establishing a military base in Northern Niger and conducting reconnaissance flights over Libya.

Even if French Special Forces have not aided Gen. Haftar, their presence in Libya will draw condemnation from the Islamist factions supporting the illegitimate Tripoli government. The Tripoli government does not want any foreign intervention to possibly hinder their progress, and they will likely continue to argue against France’s “secret war.” France could provide the support needed to help the Tobruk government reclaim more territory from the Islamists, and this would weaken the Tripoli government.

With the recent victory, the government forces may consider further putting off the unity talks as they continue to gain ground. If the Tobruk government and military can prove they are capable to defend the country from jihadists.

AQAP Continues Their Push Through Weak Opposition in Yemen

Another town in Southern Yemen has fallen under control of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) over the weekend. Ahwar, a Southern city located in the Abyan Province, was seized by AQAP fighters after ousting the group of Popular Resistance Force fighters in the area.

The Popular Resistance Force (PRF) is group of militias that has aided the government in their fight against the Houthi rebels and AQAP. The group is made up of Southern militias, and have been able to provide adequate support to the national army when fighting the Houthis. However, when fighting AQAP their effect has been minimal.

The PRF lost both Zinjibar and Jaar to AQAP late last year. A PRF leader mentioned the lack of support the PRF receives from the government has allowed AQAP to be so effective in the region.

AQAP has taken significant territory within Yemen as the government and Saudi-led coalition of Gulf States continues to fight the Houthi rebels. By taking Ahwar, AQAP further solidifies its control of the Abyan province. The group also have predominant control over the Shabwa and Hadramount provinces.

Along with taking Ahwar, AQAP assassinated Sheikh Mazen al-Aqrab, gunned down in a drive-by in the capital of Aden. Al-Aqrab was one the PRF’s most senior commanders.

Ahwar serves as a strategic point between the cities of Zinjibar and Mukallah. By taking Ahwar, AQAP is creating a region of influence along the coast line. The government forces and Gulf Coalition are primarily focused on the Northwest portion of the country, and this leaves the rest of Yemen virtually ungoverned. AQAP, and to some degree the Islamic State (IS), has taken full advantage of this situation, and has quickly seized important cities in Yemen.

Soon after AQAP reclaimed the city of Azzan, AQAP senior field commander Jalal Baleedi was killed in a U.S. drone strike. While Baleedi was a high ranking officer, his death has had little impact on AQAP’s progress. The U.S. drone strike program continues to achieve tactical successes eliminating local AQ commanders, while not altering the strategic outcome, similar to the situation currently playing out in Somalia with Al-Shabaab, with whom AQAP has close ties.

AQAP’s push through the Southern coast of Yemen is drawing the group closer to the current capital, Aden. After the government forces were expelled from Sanaa, they soon moved to Aden where they are still in control. While the government has control over the majority of the city, AQAP has been able to seize several neighborhoods on the outskirts. By controlling the entire Southern coast, AQAP may be attempting to cut the government off from its allies in the South, primarily the PRF.

If AQAP successfully establishes control over the Southern coast of Yemen it gives the group the ability to threaten a sizeable shipping lane, along with access to support their fellow Al Qaeda ally in Somalia, Al Shabaab.

The situation in Yemen is unlikely to change and AQAP will continue to poses a threat to Aden as long as the Saudi-led coalition remains focused exclusively on the Iranian-backed Houthis and the PRF militias remain a relatively weak force.

Death of Al Shabaab Intel Chief Will Mean Nothing If AU Forces Remain Complacent

Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) reported their airstrike targeting Al Shabaab’s Nadaris camp killed Mahad Mohammed Karatey, the head of Al Shabaab’s intelligence wing, Amniyat. Along with Karatey, 10 mid-level officers and 42 Amniyat recruits were reportedly killed in the strike.

Karatey was presiding over the graduation of 80 Amniyat recruits, and Al Shabaab has since denied the claim that Karatey was killed in the strike.

Karatey was reportedly a major part of planning the Garissa University attack, the attack on the Ugandan African Union (AU) base in September 2015, and the most recent attack on the Kenyan AU base in El-Adde.

The death of Karatey is said to be a major blow to Al Shabaab, yet prominent leaders have been killed in the past and Al Shabaab remains just as lethal.

Amniyat is the most important, and effective branch of Al Shabaab which specializes in intelligence collection, assassinations, and the planning and staging of suicide missions in Somalia and its neighboring countries. Amniyat also acted as the personal guard of late Al Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane.

Al Shabaab’s high-ranking Amniyat officials have been targeted in the past. In December 2014, a U.S. drone strike killed Amniyat chief Tahlil Abdishakur. The following March, another U.S. drone strike killed Amniyat senior official Adan Garaar.

Al Shabaab’s leadership is closely allied with Al Qaeda (AQ), as many of its leaders fought with AQ in Afghanistan. However, the recent defections to Islamic State (IS) illustrate a disconnect between the younger and older generation within Al Shabaab. Al Shabaab’s leadership has been actively hunting those who defected, and future infighting may be in store for organization.

Al Shabaab may not only be losing recruits at home, but also abroad. The group has historically received many recruits from America every year, especially from Minnesota where there is a large Somali-American community. However, Minnesota is now seeing an increase in IS recruits.

The Free Fire Blog reported on how Al Shabaab’s decentralized structure plays a role in minimizing the effect of targeted killings. Additionally, while targeted killing of Al-Shabaab leadership provides a tactical advantage, its not clear that the African Union forces and Somali government forces are able to take advantage. The recent expulsion of Al Shabaab forces from Marka with relative ease illustrate the potential effectiveness of AU forces, yet they have been unable to sustain liberated territory.

While AU and Somali forces are currently dealing with Al Shabaab, they may have to look out for a greater influence of IS in Somalia in the near future. While at the moment the group does not pose any major threat, they are likely to grow. This will leave a struggling AU and Somali force to deal with two terrorist organizations, and this will ruin any chance for peace.

U.S. Targets IS in Libya Despite Ongoing Unity Talks

A U.S. airstrike targeting a major Islamic State (IS) operative, Noureddine Chouchane, may have killed upwards of 40 IS trainees in Sabratha, Libya. It is currently unconfirmed if Chouchane was among the dead.

Chouchane was a Tunisian operative of IS working out of Libya. A Western official claim reconnaissance of Chouchane’s location suggested he was involved in training recruits for what appeared to be an attack on a foreign target. The airstrike targeted a barn that is believed to have been used as the trainees’ barracks.

Aside from training foreign recruits, Chouchane was believed to have helped organize two major attacks in his home country, Tunisia. The first attack last March on the National Bardo Museum in Tunis killed 20 to 22 people. The second attack, last June, targeted a Beach Resort in Sousse killed 39.

IS has begun to establish a highly effective branch in Libya amid infighting between the Libyan Dawn, factions which seized control of the capital of Tripoli and claims political authority and the internationally recognized government in Tobruk. IS has proven to be a thorn in the side of both, as they have launched attacks on Tripoli as well as government oil terminals.

IS has established a stronghold in the towns of Sirte and Sabratha. They have held territory in the towns of Derna, Benghazi, and Ajdabiya.

The growing threat of IS has not gone unnoticed, with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates  launched successful airstrikes against IS positions in February 2015. The strikes were later criticized for the high collateral damage against Libyan civilians.

While Egypt and the U.A.E. targeted fighting positions, the U.S. has predominately targeted key terrorist leaders in Libya, both Al Qaeda, and Islamic State. Last November, U.S. launched an airstrike killing the IS leader in Libya, Abu Nabil.

The U.S. has been considering increased military action for some time. The Guardian reported on photos of U.S. Special Operations Forces in Libya who were reportedly on the ground to make contact with Libyan militias in order to determine whom to work with against IS within the divided country.

The two governments in Libya are currently engaged in talks that would unite the government. The self-proclaimed government in Tripoli ousted the legitimate government in August 2014 after losing the democratic elections. The UN has been brokering a unity agreement that would reunite these two governments, but it may be a dangerous move.

Two of the current leading parties in Tripoli, Justice and Construction Party and the Loyalty to Martyrs Bloc, are dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. This becomes dangerous when there is rumors of a potential cooperation council between the Muslim Brotherhood, IS, and Al Qaeda within Libya. Also, Libya Dawn, the government in Tripoli’s military arm, is allied with Ansar Al-Sharia, AQ’s Libya branch.

The U.S., Egypt, Turkey, Germany, Russia, and China along with 16 other countries have signed an agreement to cut off aid to militias who do not support the deal.  The U.S. and Egypt do not want to pledge significant military support against IS until the government unites, yet IS may be gaining a position in the government if the mega-merger takes hold.

IS has been able to extend its reach all through North Africa. It is believed they have recruited upwards of 7,000 Tunisians to the fight in Syria, and these recruits are more than willing to come back home to fight. The vast numbers that IS can pull from has made targeted killings less effective.

Libya serves as a major hub for recruit training and transport of fighters throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Allowing any terrorist organization to maintain their stronghold would pose significant threats to neighboring countries, Europe, and the Middle East.

While the death of Chouchane may serve as a major morale boost for Libya and foreign governments fighting IS, it is unlikely to have any major impact on IS operations.

Ankara Bombing Sparks Turkey to Increase Attacks Against Kurds

On Wednesday, February 17, 2016, a car bomb detonated besides a convoy transporting Turkish military personnel killing 28 and injuring another 61 in Ankara. The next morning another military convoy was attacked in Southeast Turkey killing six.

Soon after the bombings the Turkish government accused the Kurdish Democratic Union Party’s (PYD), a Syrian Kurd rebel group, military wing, the YPG, of being behind the attacks. The Turkish government alleges the bomber was Salih Necar, a Syrian national whom the Turkish government says had ties to the YPG.

Reuters spoke to a co-leader of PYD, Saleh Muslim, who denied any responsibility to the bombing. The Syrian Kurds have been heavily preoccupied with their fight in Syria, and have not, or have rarely, been involved in Turkey.

Soon after the attack, Turkey began bombing Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in Northern Iraq. The PKK is a Turkish Kurd group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Turkey. The PKK also denied any claim to the attacks.

The PKK has been engaged in a brutal war with the Turkish government since 1984. The PKK has sought out an independent Kurdish state within Turkey, and the resulting conflict with the government has killed over 40,000 people. In 2013 a ceasefire was reached between the PKK and the Turkish government, but it was abandoned after the government began airstrikes against Kurdish positions in Iraq.

Turkey has been the target of recent bombings from not only Kurdish rebels, but also the Islamic State (IS). This past January, an IS suicide bomber killed ten in Istanbul’s historic district. The attack prompted Turkey to launch airstrikes against IS held territory in Iraq and Syria. Even though IS has been active recently, it does not seem they have been considered by the government as a possible suspect.

Four days ago Turkey began shelling YPG positions in Syria. The YPG has been close to controlling the Azaz corridor which would cut off the supply line from Turkey to Syrian rebels in Aleppo.

If the YPG are able to take control of Azaz it would unify Kurdish-held territory in Northern Syria and potentially provide access to the Mediterranean, making an autonomous Kurdish state all the more viable.

The Free Fire Blog discussed Turkey and Saudi Arabia considering entering ground troops in the Syrian war, and the recent bombings would provide impetus for Turkey to intervene more aggressively.

While Turkey openly opposes the Kurds in Syria, the U.S. and Russia has been aiding the Kurds fight against IS. The U.S. has provided military aid to the Syrian Kurds, while Russian airstrikes have paved the way for the Kurds to take rebel controlled territory.

The U.S. has called on the YPG and Turkey to halt hostilities to focus on IS, but it is unlikely Turkey will cease its shelling of YPG targets as long as Azaz is in danger.

The recent bombings have given the Turkish government an excuse to increase attacks on Syrian Kurds to protect its border region and attempt to forestall a Kurdish state. This increased aggression puts the U.S. in the difficult situation of whether to continue support of the YPG, who have been one of the most effective group against IS, despite hostilities from their NATO ally.

Massive Military Exercise May Point to a Saudi Intervention in Syria

This week the Saudi government is drawing from 20 nations to launch the largest ever military exercise in the region, North Thunder. The drills participants will be drawn from member states of the Saudi-led “anti-terror” coalition the Kingdom established two months ago.

The Saudi government has staged large military exercises in the past, but it seems each year these exercises grow larger. With the Saudi government concerned with threats from their southern and northern borders, they now need to project an even stronger presence in the region.

Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Al-Asiri claims the exercise is intended to “enhance fighting abilities, increase coordination between countries participating in the exercise, and facilitate the exchange of information and experience.” The drill may be about more than improving cooperation for counterterrorism however.

The Saudi government has actively opposed the Assad regime, and has aided rebel groups for several years now. But Syrian rebels are continuing to lose territory to Syrian military forces backed by Iranian and Russian assistance.

Taken together with reports of the Saudi aircraft arriving at Turkish base of Incirlik and discussion of a possible Turkish and Saudi ground intervention, and the military exercise could be seen as a show of force to Syria and its allies Iran, Russia, and Iraq.

While the Saudis say any potential intervention would be aimed at Islamic State, the Guardian quoted Saudi Foreign Minister, Abdel al-Jubeir, saying Assad’s removal was necessary to defeating the Islamic State (IS). If the Saudi government and its coalition engage Assad’s forces, it could severely escalate the conflict and possibly start a major war throughout the Middle East.

Aside from the large military exercise, Turkey has been actively attacking Syrian Democratic Forces (made up primarily of Syrian Kurds) through airstrikes and artillery in the past weeks

The Syrian Kurds have primarily targeted Islamic State and Syrian rebel groups they accuse of being allied with Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al Nusra.

The Kurds have seen recent successes with the help of Russian airstrikes, and are closing in on an effort to join Kurdish held territory around the city of Afrin to the Kurdish held Hasakah province.
Doing so would block off the crucial Azaz corridor, which is the Syrian rebel force in Aleppo’s only means of resupply from Turkey. Aleppo currently faces a siege from Assad’s forces.

While Saudi Arabia and its coalition continue to escalate their military preparations, the U.S has pushed heavily towards peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition forces, and just last week the International Syria Support Group agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria, but both Russian airstrikes and Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions continues.

With Saudi-supported rebel force in dire straits, States opposed to Assad, including Saudi Arabia, find options other than direct intervention dwindling. Saudi Arabia is traditionally considered to be highly reluctant to intervene directly, but the changes to their relationship with the United States, and their recent intervention in Yemen may represent a changing calculation. If so the upcoming military exercise could be a harbinger for a more robust Saudi intervention policy.