Tag Archives: Islamic State

Boko Haram seeks to ‘remain and expand’ in West Africa

After pledging allegiance to the Islamic State this past March, the Nigerian jihadist group known as Boko Haram has increased the frequency of its attacks, which range from suicide bombings at markets to frontal assaults of Nigerian military bases.  In addition, it is expanding its operations to neighboring countries such as Niger, Chad, Benin, and Cameroon, after they established a coalition meant to defeat them.

In the latest attack, the jihadists overran a base in Yola, located in western Nigeria close to the Cameroonian border.  Reports state that soldiers fled and only a vigilante-type response from locals prevented the jihadists from taking the neighboring town, who nevertheless managed to drive off with a Russian T-72 tank. 107 soldiers are also presumed missing, which would represent a huge propaganda victory if they emerge as captured by Boko Haram.

Other operations carried out recently included village raids and abductions of teenage girls in Niger along with suicide bombings in northern Cameroon.  Both operations took place near the borders with Nigeria, which highlights the lack of an effective government military presence, as Boko Haram moves at will in and out of the country.

President Muhammadu Buhari was elected this past March in part because of his pledge to defeat the jihadists by December, which of course is now untenable.  Along with the implacable insurgency, allegations of corruption by members of the previous administration that many perceive as score-settling have diminished his political capital among Nigerians, who are feeling the effects of the oil price crash.

While the Nigerian army reels from the recent losses, the US Treasury Department is freezing the assets of top Boko Haram commanders Muhammad Nur, who represented the jihadists in talks with the Nigerian government and is suspected of being involved in the 2011 UN compound bombing in Abuja, and Mustafa Chad, who is also suspected of directing their activities in the northern portion of Nigeria they control.

As Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyyah (Boko Haram’s nomenclature under IS, ‘West Africa Province’) seeks to apply the Islamic State’s slogan ‘remaining and expanding’ across western Africa the need to contain and ultimately defeat them becomes more urgent, otherwise their destabilization of Nigeria and its neighbors, terrorizing of the population, and operating with impunity will only increase.

BREAKING: Bomb threat at Sofia, Bulgaria airport shuts down terminal

A bomb-sniffing dog detected an apparent explosive device inside a van parked outside Terminal 1 of Sofia’s airport, leading to the evacuation of the terminal and re-routing of planes as authorities deployed counter-terrorism squads to contain the threat.

While this incident is ongoing, Hristo Shterionov, Executive Director of Sofia Airport, has stated that the van was parked at 1am, and the van owner, who he described as “non-Bulgarian,” left the airport at 5am. Reports state that the van has Belgian license plates.

Bulgarian police have carried out a controlled explosion and secured the terminal.  However, flights will continue to be routed to other terminals while the investigation continues.

Sofia is a transit point for migrants coming into Europe, with approximately 6,000 arriving in the past year.

The Black Sea resort town of Burgas was the scene of suicide bombing carried out by a Hezbollah cell in 2012 that killed 5 Israelis and 1 Bulgarian.  The Lebanese Shia terrorist organization has had a strong and active European presence since the 1980’s, and a plot to bomb a Bulgarian ski resort was uncovered 6 months before the Burgas attack.

The fact that the van is reported to have a Belgian license plate raises suspicions of a connection to the Molenbeek Islamic State cell that carried out the Paris attacks, but it may also signal an attempt at deception by other actors.

Russia ramps up rhetoric in wake of downed jet

Outraged by the downing of a Su-24 jet that appears to have violated Turkish airspace, Russian president Vladimir Putin is vehemently denouncing Turkey, highlighting its in helping the Islamic State smuggle oil and facilitating the passage of foreign fighters into Syrian territory controlled by IS.  At the same time, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ankara of a “planned provocation.”

Turkish president Erdogan is undeterred, insisting that the lethal response came after repeated violations of Turkish airspace and sovereignty by Russian aircraft.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the organization “stands in solidarity with Turkey” but made no further comment beyond that.  In a joint press conference with French president Francois Hollande, President Obama blamed Russia for the incident, saying that their flights near the Turkish border are an “ongoing problem with the Russian operations.”

Perhaps mindful of Russian adventurism in the Caucasus, Georgia, and Ukraine, countries and regions that share geographical proximity to Turkey, Erdogan decided to take aggresive action to halt Russia’s probing of Turkish air defenses.

In the short term, Russian bombing of Turkmen rebels operating close to the Assad stronghold and location of Russian airbase Latakia also called for a response by Erdogan, who has staked nearly all his foreign policy credentials on Assad’s ouster and invested heavily in backing Syrian rebels.  The fact that the Turkmen rebels, who are ethnic relatives of the Turks, publicly appealed for Erdogan’s help also appear to have played a major part in the decision to risk a confrontation with Russia.

Both Putin and Erdogan’s perceived and real reputations as strongmen not to be questioned or provoked are well-established.  Sharing similar governing styles and designs to revive the aura of long-lost empires, they are both adept at exploiting events for political advantage.  Putin is now faced with a decision on how to respond, yet he must proceed carefully with a NATO member, second largest customer of Russian gas, and major competitor in the Syrian proxy war.

Islamic State Egyptian affiliate stays busy, claims hotel bombing

Following up on the October 31st Russian Metrojet bombing, Wilayat Sinai, the Islamic State’s “province” in Egypt, is now claiming responsibility for an attack yesterday on a hotel in coastal al-Arish that killed 5 people, including 2 policemen and a judge.  The guests included judges that were slated to oversee the parliamentary elections currently taking place.

Wilayat Sinai’s claim posted on social media said the coordinated attack, in which a suicide bomber drove a truck laden with explosives to the hotel’s security checkpoint and was followed by another suicide bomber who entered the hotel’s restaurant, was in response to the Egyptian army’s alleged mistreatment of Muslim women at checkpoints throughout the Sinai.

Egyptian President Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi has vowed his administration will operate with a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, and so far the security services have responded by arresting and imprisoning terrorist cell members throughout the country, along with foiling bombing plots.

Aside from the high-profile Russian jet bombing, Wilayat Sinai has engaged the Egyptian military both on land and sea, carried out kidnappings of western tourists, and launched rockets at Israel.

In spite of the violence, the elections proceeded and the pro-Sisi For the Love of Egypt secular party coalition obtained a majority in parliament, with the northern Sinai reporting the highest turnout level among the electorate.  The Muslim Brotherhood is banned from participating, while the Salafi Nour party gained only eight seats, down from its high of 122 seats in the 2012 election.

Wilayat Sinai remains highly active across the peninsula, with an arsenal of advanced weapons obtained from Libya, Gaza, and other sources including MANPADs, as well as carrying out beheadings, with IS-style iconography.

Brussels, seat of NATO headquarters, held hostage by the Islamic State

After uncovering the Islamic State cell that planned and executed the Paris attacks, Belgian authorities have increased the manhunt for Salah Abdeslam, who is suspected of being one of the gunmen in Paris and whose brother blew himself up in a suicide operation there.  Brussels, the location of NATO and EU headquarters, is now a city under military lockdown.  Subways and schools remained closed on Monday, as the threat of a “Paris-style attack” keeps residents and police on edge.

Hiding in plain sight within the large Muslim community centered in the Molenbeek neighborhood, the IS cell that executed the Paris atrocity may have prepared for another wave targeting Brussels,  according to Belgian authorities.

In response, they have urged the closing of popular bars and clubs, while hotels locked their doors, as a large number of travelers cancelled their stays.

The military personnel and armored personnel carriers now patrolling the streets evoke images of a city under occupation, and although 16 arrests have been made in connection with the attacks, Abdeslam and his accomplices remain at large.

As previously noted, IS has increased its operational capabilities beyond the borders of its self-declared caliphate and affiliated “provinces.”  Whereas, historically terrorist organizations executed operations in order to draw media attention for the announcement of clear political objectives, IS transcends traditional western concepts of terrorism. Instead, it is a global jihadist organization, seeking to goad Western powers into an apocalyptic conflict.

In the 1980’s and 1990’s, organizations such as Hezbollah held hostages for years and carried out operations at the behest of Iran, a clear case of state-sponsored terrorism.  Nowadays, a self-declared religious state, with no international recognition and a self-sufficient financial structure, is able to hold entire cities hostage; cities that serve as headquarters for international military and political bodies are now at the mercy of jihadists who reject the Western concept of the nation-state.

In a propaganda masterstroke, the Islamic State has succeeded in achieving one of its key goals: “striking fear in the heart of the enemy.”

Islamic State expands its presence in Bangladesh

Always opportunistic and seeking to supplant its forefather al-Qaeda, the Islamic State appears to have struck in Bangladesh, claiming responsibility for the killing of Italian missionary Piero Parolari this past Wednesday.  This follows the killing of Italian aid worker Cesare Tavella, who was killed on September 28 in Dhaka, a murder also claimed by Islamic State. Bengali authorities arrested four men in connection with that killing, but denied any connection to the self-declared caliphate.

Bangladesh relies heavily on NGOs and international assistance, a likely factor in the government’s decision to publicize a zero-tolerance approach to jihadi terror.  Nevertheless, rampant corruption, porous borders, and a history of Islamist activity make Bangladesh an attractive target as well as staging area for attacks in the Indian subcontinent.

The Bangladeshi branch of Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), a group closely linked to the better known Muslim Brotherhood, has been active since the early 1940’s, becoming a political party following Bangladeshi independence in 1971.  Founded on the principles of Abul-Alaa Mawdudi, a key jihadi ideologue, the JEI advocates an Islamic government based on Shariah. Like the Brotherhood, it is prepared to participate in elections, but recent political support is limited, only winning a few seats in Parliament every cycle.

Through his numerous books, Mawdudi’s work on Islamic politics and jihad heavily influenced al-Qaeda. AQ, whose ties in the region go back to the “mujahideen” war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, announced in September 2014 the creation of “al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent.”  Seeking to unite the numerous splinter jihadi factions in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, AQIS was mainly established at least in part as a countermove to the declaration of the Caliphate by IS in June.

One of its first actions were attacks on secular Bangladeshi bloggers, who were accused of insulting the prophet and promoting apostasy from Islam.  At least four murders were attributed to AQIS, which were carried out by its local affiliates Ansar al-Islam Bangladesh and Ansarullah Bangla Team.

Keen to steal the spotlight from al-Qaeda, the Islamic State launched attacks of their own in the subcontinent. After establishing its Wilayat Khorasan in Afghanistan, IS apparently co-opted some jihadists from AQIS, as well as recruited and indoctrinated new members to carry out murders against Western missionaries (“Crusaders” in IS-speak).

The latest issue of their propaganda organ Dabiq spells out their goal: “These blessed back-to-back attacks have caused havoc among the citizens of the crusader nations and their allies living in Bengal and forced their diplomats, tourists, and expats to limit their movements and live in a constant state of fear.”

By targeting clergy and aid workers, the Islamic State’s strategy in Bangladesh follows their familiar tactics: undermine the credibility of the government, spread chaos, and strike terror in the population.  In the meantime, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government is now facing the challenge of dealing with both terror groups and their competition for jihadist supremacy.

Terrorist threats against the world’s most popular sport have a history

Although it may seem counterintuitive for al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to target the world’s most popular sport, there is a clear pattern of threats and attacks carried out on viewing parties and events since the 1990’s.

European soccer has a long history of political involvement.  Some clubs are identified with far-left and far-right ideologies, while supporter groups have clashed over doctrinal differences.  The recent migrant crisis has given the opportunity for fans to express their views in the stands.

Soccer is immensely popular in the Arab and Muslim world; there is no prohibition in Islam against it, wealthy Gulf sheikhs own top European clubs, and a large number of stars playing for them are Arab and/or Muslim as well.  Of course, this matters little to the ideologues of AQ and IS.

Threats to the World Cup and national squad matches have been well documented. The 1998 World Cup, held in and won by France, was targeted by al-Qaeda.  At the time, the Algerian jihadist organizations Armed Islamic Group (GIA) and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC, which later evolved into al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib) were engaged in a brutal insurgency against the Algerian government.

By the late 1990’s, al-Qaeda had active cells and sympathizers in France, which contains a large Algerian immigrant population.  A plot to strike the England-Tunisia game during the group stage was uncovered two months before it was to take place. French authorities arrested over a dozen GIA operatives, who planned to kill the English players on the pitch while another cell sought to murder the American soccer team players in their hotel.  Not surprisingly considering recent events, the GIA cell was apprehended in Brussels.

Instead of a horrific terrorist attack broadcast live to the whole world, the 1998 World Cup is best remembered for transforming Zinedine Zidane into a unifying symbol for France.  Born and raised in a rough section of Marseille to immigrant Algerian parents, he is by far the most famous of Muslim soccer players.  His upbringing, similar to that of the French jihadists, was also marked by discrimination and bigotry.  Yet he chose to represent France, lifted the World Cup trophy, and achieved global stardom.

Periodic al-Qaeda threats followed subsequent World Cups and symbolic matches, such as the France-Algeria friendly played at the Stade de France in Paris in 2001.  A highly emotional game due to the colonial history between the two countries, it was also targeted by a GIA cell affiliated with al-Qaeda.  Police arrested 4 jihadists the night before the game, seizing explosives and once again stopping a mass murder at a soccer event.

Taking a page from its forefathers, the Islamic State has also targeted soccer matches, as was seen during the Paris attacks.  In a cruel twist of irony, two of the eleven starters for the French team at the match vs. Germany that was targeted by suicide bombers at the Stade de France are Muslim.  One of them, Lassana Diarra, was personally affected as his cousin Asta Diakite was murdered by the jihadists in Paris.

The plot at the stadium was foiled by an alert security guard who turned away a potential suicide bomber.  The subsequent explosions outside the stadium were clearly heard inside, but the game continued.  Yesterday, the Germany-Netherlands match was called off after police in Hannover received what they believed to be credible reports of explosives packed inside an ambulance outside of the stadium.   A couple of days before, the Belgium-Spain match in Brussels was called off as well.

The recent scandals at soccer’s world governing body FIFA have not affected the popularity or revenue streams in the least.  With qualifying matches for the 2018 World Cup in Russia underway, security will remain a top concern.  Increased threats will no doubt appear at next year’s European Championships, where 24 national teams, including the Russian, Belgian, Turkish, and German squads will participate and are set to take place in…France.

Overnight raids in Paris miss their target

Update: since this article was published, unconfirmed reports state that Abdelhamid Abaaoud has been killed.  More information to follow.

Acting on footage of one of the drivers in a getaway car taken during the attacks on bars and restaurants in Paris last Friday, along with information from electronic surveillance suggesting that an attack was imminent, French authorities conducted a raid overnight in an apartment in the Paris suburb of St. Denis, a “sensitive urban zone” known as one of the most dangerous in the city. The operation resulted in the death of two suspects, including a woman wearing a suicide vest, along with seven arrests.

The suspected leader of the Paris attacks, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, was thought to be in the apartment.  However, his whereabouts are unknown.  Reports place him in Europe as well as Syria, where French airstrikes have been targeting him as well.  Multiple reports state that he is the “mastermind” of the attacks, yet US intelligence analysts are casting doubt on this characterization due to the complexity of the operation.

While Abaaoud is clearly a highly dangerous individual who is on record stating that he “travel[ed] to Europe in order to terrorize the crusaders waging war against the Muslims” and has been on the most wanted list owing to his role in the failed train attack last summer, it is more than likely that he acted as an operational commander, receiving orders from higher-ups in Syria and coordinating the logistical aspects within the cell based in Brussels.  The fact that he was able to move about Belgium and France undetected made him a highly valuable asset.

The highly complex Paris attacks show that the Islamic State has expanded its ability to exercise command and control across increasingly large distances.  The attacks, which were carried out with military precision, suggest that by making Abaaoud a media fixation, the attention of the authorities may be directed at someone deemed expendable by the Islamic State due to his extremely high global profile.

While his capture is highly desirable, both for the sake of justice and the information he may provide regarding jihadist networks and planned operations in Europe, Abaaoud is just one of the many mid-level targets that is easily replaceable in the Islamic State’s existing European network.

The Refugee Resettlement Process is Already Discriminatory

President Obama made headlines today in reaction to a question from the press regarding the possibility of taking in Syrian Christian and other religious minorities ahead or in place of Syrian Muslims (Syria is majority Sunni Muslim.) The President responded aggressively claiming such a policy was, “… not American. That’s not who we are. We don’t have religious tests to our compassion.”

The reality however is that the Refugee Resettlement system already has “a religious test of their compassion”, to quote the president. And that’s a test which actively disfavors Christians, according to figures released by the State Department:

Of 2,184 Syrian refugees admitted into the U.S. since the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, only 53 (2.4 percent) have been Christians while 2098 (or 96 percent) have been Muslims, according to State Department statistics updated on Monday. The remaining 33 include 1 Yazidi, 8 Jehovah Witnesses, 2 Baha’i, 6 Zoroastrians, 6 of “other religion,” 7 of “no religion,” and 3 atheists.

The CIA Factbook for Syria gives the stated percentage of Christians in Syria at 10%. Estimates by Christian aid groups have suggested between half a million and 700,000 Syrian Christians have fled the country, making them between 16% to 23% of the estimated 3 million Syrian refugees who have fled the country. This seems reasonable, given that Christian groups in the Middle East face aggressive discrimination from a wide variety of the factions fighting across the Middle East, including especially the Islamic State, and so could reasonably be conceived to make up a disproportionate percentage of refugees.

So depending on calculation method Christian refugees could fairly be between 10% to 23% of the total refugee flow from Syria, ignoring any other questions of preference such as propensity to support groups like Islamic State.

But they are only 2.4%. That is heavily suggestive that there is a systematic bias against Christian refugees within the system.

One of the elements at play is the fact that for the most part, the United States does not get to select its own refugees. As Nina Shea highlights at National Review, The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is typically the deciding agency, and recommends to the United States which refugees will be resettled. So the selection process hits several snags. Firstly, Christian refugees almost overwhelmingly avoid United Nations refugee camps out of legitimate fears of possible violence against them. Reports of attacks on Christians refugees by their Muslim counterparts have been reported, such as when Christian refugees on a boat in the Mediterranean were thrown overboard, and German police have openly urged publicly separating Christian and Muslim refugees, due to attacks. In one case a Christian convert was beaten unconscious by a metal baton.

Secondly, the United Nations itself is strongly beholden to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), it’s largest voting bloc, which has its own views on the refugee situation that are unlikely to conform with U.S. interests and equally unlikely to favor Christians, given that at the OIC’s home headquarters, in Saudi Arabia, the practice of Christianity is itself largely illegal.

Thirdly, and perhaps most largely problematic, is the appearance of overt anti-Christian bias by the State Department itself. As good friend of the Center, Institute for Religion and Democracy’s Faith McDonnell notes in her recent piece on the state of Christian refugees, the State Department has explicitly declared they, “would not support a special category to bring Assyrian Christians into the United States,” in response to a plan by a private aid group to fund, entirely free of taxpayer dollars, the transport of Assyrian Christians facing extermination by Islamic State.

In other words, even when its free, no cost to them, the State Department has preferred to snub Christians rather than save them.

So it’s true that there is a “religious test” for refugee admittance into the United States, but it is a deck stacked against Christians, not for them. President Obama is treating efforts to address this ongoing discrimination as if it, and not the original policy, is based in bias.

It is highly disingenuous that the President is treating any criticism of a discriminatory system of resettlement as itself discriminatory, in order to shut up debate about the plight of Middle Eastern Christians.

CIA Director John Brennan: more attacks forthcoming

In a sobering assessment of the Paris attacks, CIA Director John Brennan spoke yesterday at the Global Security Forum, calling for increased surveillance capabilities, bemoaning the restrictions on intelligence collection promoted by privacy advocates, and warning that “this is not the only operation” the Islamic State has planned.

While calling for increased cooperation and information sharing among government intelligence agencies, he acknowledged that practically this task is difficult due to each government having their own priorities, sources, and methods.  This is just one of the many obstacles hampering the fight against the jihadist organization and declared caliphate known as the Islamic State and other terrorist groups.

While much has been written about the sophisticated propaganda and social media presence of the caliphate, the fact remains that an increased reliance on electronic surveillance, data mining, and analytics has undermined human intelligence collection efforts.

As the reporting on the presumed mastermind of the Paris attacks Abu Omar al-Baljiki makes clear, he managed to travel to Syria, back to Belgium, and escape to Syria again despite his photo and name being made public, featured on newscasts, and known to Belgian intelligence.  The fact that he was able to cross borders undetected, with the presence of CCTV cameras, facial recognition software, and databases elucidates the fact that while technological advances have been crucial in foiling terrorist plots in the past, a determined adversary can and will find ways to stay one step ahead of technology.

Brennan said as much yesterday, pointing out that the attacks were “carefully planned” and that “We had strategic warning. We knew that planning by ISIL was underway.”  The failure to stop the attacks, he said, were due to a combination of factors, including the ability of European intelligence to monitor individuals traveling to Syria being under strain due to the sheer volume of them, increased operational security by the jihadists, who are skilled at adapting to circumstances and in effect becoming “early adopters” of secure encrypted communications, and “unauthorized disclosures” (Snowden most likely) along with “policy and legal actions” by governments that have resulted in the CIA and other services’ ability to uncover and dismantle terrorist networks becoming increasingly difficult.

The CIA’s response to these challenges has been in part, the creation of the Directorate of Digital Innovation.  Calling it “the biggest change to the CIA’s structure in five decades” Brennan announced that the recently created department is tasked with “accelerating the integration of our digital and cyber capabilities across all our mission areas – espionage, all-source analysis, open-source intelligence and covert action.”

While the focus on preventing information dominance by the jihadists is to be commended, the fact remains that reliance on technology can lead to disastrous consequences.  Satellite and drone surveillance can track a jihadists’ movements, but they are incapable of infiltrating networks, spying, and collecting information.  A dedicated human intelligence effort is urgently needed to stop an organization that long ago ceased to be a “JV team” if it ever was one.