Tag Archives: Kurds

Venezuela elections, al-Shabaab returns to Kenya, Assad in Moscow, Chinese espionage at NASA…

Venezuela extends state of emergency as elections loom

President Nicolas Maduro has extended the state of emergency in Tachira, which borders Colombia, for an additional 60 days. This means the right of peaceful assembly, among other constitutional rights, will be forbidden on election day (December 6) when Venezuelans head to the polls to choose parliament representatives.  The potential for conflict remains high, as polls show the opposition is poised to obtain a clear majority.

Venezuela has refused election monitoring from the OAS and neighboring Brazil, claiming its electoral system is “fraud proof.” Previous elections have been conducted under a cloud of intimidation by armed “colectivos” which are paramilitary groups affiliated with Maduro’s governing party. The upcoming elections are seen as a referendum on Maduro, who is leader of the country with the world’s highest inflation rate, a collapsing economy, and a murder rate that is among the highest in the world.

Report claims Kenyan al-Shabaab fighters are returning home

A report by the International Organization for Migration alleges that approximately 700 Kenyan members of al-Shabaab have quit the Somalian jihadist group and returned home.  There does not appear to be any way to verify this figure or how the IOM arrived at it. Given that al-Shabaab is not known to take defections lightly, there is a probability that some or all of these reported defectors may part of an Al-Shabaab infiltration operation.

Kenyan security is directing most of its counterterrorism resources to contain al-Shabaab, which is active and has carried out multiple terrorist attacks inside Kenya. The most notable incident, the Westgate Mall massacre in Nairobi in 2013, was carried out by Al Shabaab members, some of whom hide among migrants fleeing Somalia.

The report also makes the claim that if the returned fighters are not quickly reintegrated into Kenyan society, the “response of the security forces” will be perceived as promoting further “radicalization.” This is a direct challenge to the obvious need by Kenyan forces to conduct serious counterintelligence and security screening of the returning fighters, and appears another example of the larger effort to propagandize against Kenyan efforts to fight Al-Shabaab.

Assad meets Putin in Moscow to coordinate strategy

Bashar al-Assad has made an unannounced visit to Moscow, at least in part to express gratitude for Putin’s military assistance in Syria. In a transcript released from the meeting, Putin expressed that he was hopeful that the successful military campaign could be shadowed by a “political solution” in Syria. Assad exclaimed, “If it was not for your actions and your decisions the terrorism which is spread in the region would have swallowed up a much greater area and spread over an even greater territory.”

The visit apparently consisted of three rounds of talks: a closed meeting between the two leaders, and two others that included Russia’s defense ministers.

This visit reflects the Russia’s growing significance in the Middle East as Syria’s most significant ally. While Western diplomats have seized on Putin’s claims of interest in a political transition, Assad, backed by Russian military might presses forward to establish a military outcome that improves his likelihood of maintaining power.

Two NASA supervisors indicted for espionage in connection with China

Two NASA supervisors were criminally charged for “willfully violating national security regulations while allowing a visiting foreign national to gain complete and unrestricted access to the space agency’s Langley Research Center.” Supervisors Glenn A. Woodell and Daniel J. Jobson were indicted under 18 U.S. Code 799, which relates to a “violation of regulations of National Aeronautics and Space Administration.”

Supervisors Woodell and Jobson permitted Bo Jiang unrestricted access, in addition to allowing him to travel to China with a NASA-issued laptop. Jiang was former NASA scientist employed by a NASA contractor, the National Institute of Aerospace, and was arrested in March of 2013 attempting to flee to China.

According to former Representative Frank Wolf, who first made the case public, NASA and the Obama administration were not compliant in the initial investigation. Currently, foreign nationals and green card holders are “treated like U.S. citizens with unrestricted access to all parts of the space research facility.”

Syrian Kurds declare semi-autonomous administration on Turkish border, Ankara disapproves

The Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) has announced that leaders of the multi-ethnic town of Tal Abyad, which was seized from IS after heavy fighting in July, have voted to join the autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Syria.  The governing council is composed of Kurd, Arab, and Turkmen members, yet there are reports of Arab displacement at the hands of Kurdish forces.

This development displeases the Turkish government, which views attempts by Syrian Kurds to expand as a threat to their national security.  Turkey takes a confrontational stance towards the PYD, which it calls the Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), considered a terrorist organization by both Turkey and the US.  The US has chosen to distance itself from the PYD, noting that its supply of weapons to rebels is not intended for them.  For its part, the PYD in alliance with other Kurd and Arab rebel groups, is reportedly preparing an assault on the IS de-facto capital of Raqqa.

Other stories we’re following:

US and Russia reach agreement on aircraft rules over Syria

Russia builds second military base in Arctic Circle

3 Russians killed in Syria, according to government source

Chinese propaganda operation now offering online courses, draws criticism

China to invest in UK nuclear plant

Congo opposition leader calls for peaceful uprising ahead of Sunday’s vote

Iraq’s PM urged to seek Russian air strikes on IS

AFP: Canadian fighter jets withdrawing from Iraq, Syria

Iran Supreme Leader endorses nuclear deal

Nigerian army issues ‘final’ warning to Boko Haram

Iraqi troops seize IS-held area in Beiji

Afghan forces backed by airstrikes battle Taliban in ongoing operation to seize area around capital

Turkish strikes on Kurds, Egypt battles insurgents, Bin Laden bodyguard released, Europe drawing migrants from beyond Syria

TIO Headlines: September 23, 2015 

Turkish army launches airstrikes on Kurds in Iraq

Turkish jets targeted a Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant camp in northern Iraq, destroying munitions depots and caves, according to Turkish security forces. The Turkish army also claims to have targeted a facility being used for “education and logistics”.

Following the collapse of the ceasefire back in July, Turkey has regularly been attacking camps of the outlawed PKK. Over the course of the PKK’s three-decade insurgency, about 40,000 people have been killed. Turkish officials are also concerned about the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG), which is an armed wing of the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Turkey has asserted that the YPG has connections to the PKK, though State Department Spokesman John Kirby has announced that the United States does not consider the YPG a terrorist organization, and that they have actually proven effective in the coalition against the Islamic State in Syria.

Egypt’s military changes tactics against IS; Sisi pardons 100 prisoners 

Egypt’s largest campaign against the Islamic State (IS) in the Sinai Peninsula is easing, according to its military spokesman. The campaign, which began after IS launched an attack in Sinai and partially seized the town of Sheikh Zuweid, has reportedly been successful; destroying hideouts, and capturing or killing IS jihadists.

Meanwhile, France released a statement Wednesday announcing that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will purchase two Mistral warships. It has not been announced how much Egypt will have to pay for these vessels, which are capable of carrying 16 helicopters, 4 landing craft, and 13 tanks. These ships were originally to be sold to Russia; however France retracted the offer following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

The sale comes at a time when Sisi has also been under international pressure with Amnesty International accusing Sisi of human rights violations, in his efforts to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood. Amnesty has itself faced criticisms when it was revealed a senior Amnesty leader has MB ties. Still outside pressure was likely behind Egypt’s decision to pardoned 100 prisoners the day before the United Nations summit of world leaders. Among those released were Al Jazeera journalists which the Egyptian government credibly accuses of broadcasting false propaganda on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Former Bin Laden bodyguard released from Guantanamo

Veteran jihadist and former Osama bin Laden bodyguard Abdul-Rahman Shalabi has been released after 14 years in detention at the Guantanamo Bay facility and repatriated to his native Saudi Arabia.  A member of Bin Laden’s security detail since 1999, Shalabi had received advanced training from Al Qaeda camps, and according to other detainee statements, was slated to engage in a 1999 suicide hijacking operation over Southeast Asia.

Upon his capture by Pakistani forces in December 2001, he was transferred to Guantanamo Bay, where he was judge a high risk detainee.  He gained notoriety in 2005 for leading a hunger strike to protest his detention.  His release comes after his agreeing to enter a rehabilitation program in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi rehab program is highly controversial, and the Saudis claim a recidivism rate of 20%. In a September 2014 terror raid, the Saudis found 59 of the 88 people they arrested were graduates of the rehab program.

European free-for-all draws migrants from beyond Syria 

Following the news of the European Union’s agreement to distribute approximately 120,000 migrants  among 23 countries, it is now reported that migrants from places like Iran, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Somalia, and many other impoverished countries are seeking to blend in with the Syrians and gain resettlement in Europe.  According to the report from Vienna:

Swimming in the river of humanity are shady characters, too, admitted criminals, Islamic State sympathizers and a couple of guys from Fallujah, one with a fresh bullet wound, who when asked their occupation seemed confused.

Fallujah is presently under Islamic State control. However, Finn Borch Andersen, head of the Danish Security and Intelligence Service, is on record as saying that there is no evidence that jihadist groups are using the migrant routes to infiltrate fighters into Europe.  Of course, this directly contradicts multiple reports, and including statements by Germany’s intelligence chief, that the migrants pose an incentive for jihadi recruitment and radicalization.

Other stories we’re following: 

Kidnapped British women and her 5 children rescued, Insurgent group in Syria claims

“Moderate” US-trained rebels apparently give weapons to al-Qaeda in Syria

Taliban insurgency kills Georgian soldier in NATO attack, according to Georgian military

Burkina Faso civilian President Kafando restored following military coup

Kenya found weapons, drugs on Norwegian-flagged ship last week

Yemen’s President returns from exile in Saudi Arabia

US to decide whether to coordinate military action with Russia in Syria

Moscow believes chance of international agreement on Syria is high

Ukrainian president strong advocate of joining NATO

Putin inaugurates Moscow’s largest mosque

Some Russian soldiers refuse orders to deploy to Syria

Xi Jinping pledges cooperation with US on cyber crimes

Chinese fighter jets come dangerously close to US surveillance plane

Foreign media welcome in Beijing, but restrictions remain

US may be ready to challenge South China Sea claims

Malaysia arrests 6 allegedly part of human trafficking network and involved in bombing last month

Video shows gunmen with abducted foreigners; escape to mountains in Philippines

Islamic State Deploys Chemical Weapons, Truck Bombs, as Fighting Continues

The Islamic State reportedly used a mustard agent against Kurdish force in Erbil, Iraq August 14, 2015. In 2013, the Syrian government admitted to having large amounts of chemical weapons, and claimed it would renounce its arsenal following the U.S. ultimatum. Syrian government forces have reportedly used chemical weapons against the rebel forces in the continuing civil war.

The mustard agent is a potential upgrade in the Islamic State’s battlefield capabilities that are already giving the U.S. trained forces problems. Reports indicate that around 60 Peshmerga fighters that help protect the Kurdish areas in northern Iraq, suffered injuries to their throats consistent with a chemical weapons attack.

This attack raises questions about the ability of the U.S. allies on the ground to fight the Islamic State. Kurdish, Iraqi, and U.S.-supported Syria rebels say they are not receiving enough U.S. aid to combat the Islamic State’s conventional weapons capabilities.
If the Islamic State gains access to more unconventional weapon that only makes matters worse. The U.S. allied forces would need specialized equipment and training to help protect them against unconventional weapon attacks. In the Syrian case this is a potential problem, since most Syrian rebels fight alongside the Al-Qaeda-linked al Nusra Front.

In addition, the Islamic State has claimed responsibility on August, 13, 2015 for a truck bomb explosion killing sixty people, at the Jamila market, in Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad, the deadliest attack in Baghdad since 2103.

Despite the U.S. continued bombing campaign and the presence of 3,000 American advisor troops for training Iraqi forces. Iraq struggles to regain territory seized by the Islamic State. General Ray Odierno, the U.S. Army chief of staff, described the battle against the Islamic State as a “kind of stalemate” in a Pentagon news conference.

Thus far, Iranian-supported Shiite militia forces and Kurdish Peshmerga forces have been the main contributors to fighting the Islamic State. The Islamic State is continuing to spread in the region despite U.S. bombing raids, which shows the importance of a reliable force on the ground to oppose Islamic State.

Unfortunately the U.S. has remained opposed to directly arming the Kurds, described as the most effective fighting force against IS, while continuing to support Iraqi troops and Syrian rebels, which have proven unreliable or unsuccessful time and time again.

Until the U.S. is prepared to adopt a full spectrum approach to defeating the Islamic State, the situation will continue to worsen.

IS U.S. Going to Be Backed into Airstrikes Against Assad?

The U.S. is now redefining it’s support relationship with “Division 30”, following its embarrassing launch last week.  Several of the U.S. trained Syrian rebels and their commanders were captured by Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front just days after the group’s entry into Syria. The U.S. has allocated $500 million for the training effort, which has so far produced approximately 60 fighters.

The attack by Nusra apparently took the U.S. completely by surprise, according to current and former officials interviewed by the New York Times:

While American military trainers had gone to great lengths to protect the initial group of trainees from attacks by Islamic State or Syrian Army forces, they did not anticipate an assault from the Nusra Front. In fact, officials said on Friday, they expected the Nusra Front to welcome Division 30 as an ally in its fight against the Islamic State.

“This wasn’t supposed to happen like this,” said one former senior American official, who was working closely on Syria issues until recently, and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments. The Nusra Front said in a statement on Friday that its aim was to eliminate Division 30 before it could gain a deeper foothold in Syria.

That the attack was not anticipated is a particularly egregious failure, seeing as Al-Nusra has undertaken to co-opt or eliminate every militia in Syria which the U.S. supported. Yet somehow U.S. planners failed to foresee the obvious. Following the attack, the U.S has now announced that it will use airstrikes against any force attacking Division 30, including the Assad regime’s forces. This is a relaxation of a previous more restrictive policy, which was formed under concerns that the rebels would attempt to direct U.S. ordinance against Assad instead of the Islamic State.

The U.S.’s policy towards Islamic State in Syria fails to address the reality that Islamic State is simply not a priority for any other force operating in the Syria except the U.S., its Western allies, and perhaps the Kurdish PKK/YPG. Turkey’s entry into the conflict, celebrated by U.S. policy makers, is almost entirely directed towards damaging the Kurdish PKK and preventing an autonomous or independent Kurdistan in Syria. The Syrian rebel forces, the vast majority of whom are Islamist in orientation, if not, like al Nusra, overtly jihadist, and are focused on Assad, not Islamic State.

What does the U.S. intend to do if, as seems likely, Division 30 forces engage Assad’s forces, either alone, or in coordination with other rebels? Will the U.S. provide airstrikes if Assad’s forces launch a counter offensive? Will it provide air cover to defend Division 30 against Assad’s Air Force? As Bloomberg’s Josh Rogin noted in January, this was not an unforeseen problem.

Then consider the deal for the use of Incirlik Airbase, which reportedly required the U.S. agreeing to Turkish effort to establish a “safe zone”,  along the border for Syrian rebels and refugees.

That agreement has been a long time desire of Turkey, Syrian rebels and pro-intervention U.S. lawmakers, and efforts to agitate for a no-fly zone have stepped up again in recent days.And while U.S. sources seek to emphasize the space is intended as an “anti-ISIS” safe zone, the real goal of the Turks and their rebel allies is, and has been since at least 2012,  a zone to shield forces from  Assad, and especially his air assets. In 2013, U.S. officials reportedly could not find a compelling national interest in establishing a no-fly zone over Northern Syria, and it 2014, National Security Advisor Susan Rice described a No Fly Zone or safe zone as “premature” or “a diversion”.

Yet it appears Turkey may now achieve this long-time objective. , thanks in part to the Islamic State.

Turkey Using Islamic State as Excuse to Fight the Kurds

Turkey and the US have reportedly agreed to establish a “safe-zone” along the Turkey-Syria border in exchange for US use of the Turkish Incirlik Air Base, located 60 miles northwest of Syria. Under the terms of the agreement, the Islamic State (IS) will be pushed out of a 68-mile-long area along the border. With the use of Incirlik, overflight of Syrian territory will bring US aircraft closer to the forces of the Assad regime.

US use of Incirlik will extend the reach of its airstrikes in the direction of Aleppo, the largest city in Syria. Fighting in Aleppo has mostly been between the Syrian government and Syrian rebels, and the US has been reluctant to strike forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad on behalf of the rebels. US officials do not intend to formally recognize the safe zone, which Turkey wants to establish as protected area for Syrian rebels and refugees.

Turkey has fought with the US over the terms of this agreement since last year due to disagreements over the creation of the safe zone where Syrian rebel fighters would theoretically be trained and based. The zone was a major source of contention, because Turkey insisted that Syrian rebels fighting Assad be based there. Turkey wants the US to focus less on battling IS and more on helping those fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In turn, the US has expressed concern over the groups that Turkey supports. Turkey backs a variety of Syrian Islamist militias. It has been openly accused of providing arms and support to Al Qaeda and permitting Islamic state fighters to travel back and forth across the Turkish border for medical treatment.

The problems with the establishment of the safe zone extend beyond the dangers associated with arming Al Qaeda-linked terrorist organizations. Though Turkey is claiming that the zone will help in the fight against IS, it is making no secret of the fact that its creation will bring Turkish forces into an area that has been predominately controlled by the Kurds. Turkey has been fighting the Kurds for decades. The peace process has been shaky at best, and the situation is devolving into all-out violence that has been spurred on by the fighting with IS.

On July 25, Turkey launched airstrikes against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) locations in Iraq. The airstrikes came in retaliation for PKK attacks last week, which came after IS bombed a gathering of Kurds and their supporters in Suruc, Turkey. The PKK blames Turkey for the Suruc bombing, saying that Turkey has previously allowed IS to attack Kurdish positions and to operate freely along the Turkey-Syria border.

Turkey has started launching airstrikes against IS in Syria, but the Turkish government has been treating its strikes against the Kurds as a part of the same operation. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that “we have given instruction for a third series of strikes in Syria and Iraq. Air and ground operations are under way. No one should doubt our determination… We will not allow Turkey to be turned into a lawless country.”

While Turkey is bowing under pressure from NATO to fight IS, it is using its involvement against IS as an excuse to conduct operations against the Kurds. Along with airstrikes against the two groups, it has detained at least 851 people. 28 are suspected of being linked to IS, 74 are tied to the PKK, and the connections of the remaining 749 have not been announced. The vast majority are likely linked to Kurdish groups. To make matters worse, a Paris prosecutor announced last week that the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) orchestrated the 2013 murder of three PKK leaders in Paris.

Turkish airstrikes against the Kurds have allegedly been accompanied by ground assaults. Forces from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria claimed on July 27 that Turkish tanks shelled them near Kobane, located in northern Syria near the Turkish border. Turkey has denied the reports.

However, the YPG has recently captured large amounts of territory in northern Syria from IS, and Turkey does not want to see the formation of an autonomous Kurdish state right across the Syrian border from its southwest region, where much of its own Kurdish population resides. Therefore, although the YPG has proven very successful in the fight against IS, Turkey does not want an effective Kurdish fighting force to exist along its border.

Turkey’s fight against IS is a pretext for attacking the Kurds, who are listed along with IS as a danger to the country’s security. The government has promised to continue attacking the Kurds, and Prime Minister Davutoglu said, “We will continue our fight… until we obtain a certain result.”

Davutoglu’s statement begs two questions: what does he mean by “a certain result?” and what is Turkey’s regional agenda?

The US must realize that Turkey’s political goals in the region are far different from American ones. Turkey aims to eradicate Kurdish influence while removing Syrian President Assad from power. In contrast, the US wants to defeat IS, and the two sets of objectives are mutually exclusive.

The best way to defeat IS in Syria is to help the Kurds. Turkey and the US are invested in completely different fights.

Kurds Blame Turkey for Islamic State Violence

On July 23, one Turkish policeman was killed and another was injured in a shooting in Diyarbakir. They were ambushed while investigating a traffic accident. The attack comes one day after two Turkish policemen were killed in Ceylanpinar. The officers were shot in the head and later found in the house that they were sharing.

Both attacks took place in the southeastern province of Sanliurfa, which is near the Syrian border and is a predominately Kurdish area. No one has claimed responsibility for the July 23 shooting. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization by the US, EU, and Turkey, claimed responsibility for the July 22 attack, and three suspects have been arrested. The PKK has also been blamed for a separate series of attacks, including shootings and arson, on the Turkish military on July 22. The PKK, or a related Kurdish militant organization, is likely responsible for the July 23 killing as well.

The PKK said that the July 22 killing was in retaliation for the Islamic State’s July 20 suicide bomb attack in Suruc, near the Syrian border. The bombing targeted a group of approximately 300 people from the Socialist Youth Associations Federation, who had gathered before volunteering in Kobane, a Kurdish city on the Syrian side of the border that had been the focus of a number of Islamic State attacks. Initially, officials believed that the bombing was carried out by a young woman, but later reports indicated that a 20-year-old Kurdish man linked to the Islamic State carried out the attack.

Tensions have been rising between the Turkish government and its Kurdish minority. In the hours following the July 20 suicide bombing in Suruc, members of the PKK fought with Turkish police in Adiyaman and one soldier died. Also on July 20, demonstrators blaming the government for the bombing clashed with police at the funerals of those killed in Suruc. They threw fireworks at the police, who responded with water cannons and tear gas.

Turkey often faces international criticism for its treatment of the Kurds, with whom it has fought for decades. Kurdish officials say that the Turkish government allows the Islamic State to operate in Turkey and attack Kurdish targets.

In Turkey’s elections last month, the predominately Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) won 12 percent of the vote, surpassing the 10 percent necessary for a political party to enter Turkey’s parliament. The win for the HDP came at the expense of the ruling Justice Development Party (AKP), which no longer holds a super-majority. The AKP has been consolidating power under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the Kurds’ rise to prominence in politics suggests that the country is growing tired of the “increasingly authoritarian” AKP rule.

Following the Suruc bombing, Turkey has begun building a wall along its border with Syria to curb the flow of Islamic State militants between the two countries. On July 23, members of the Islamic State clashed with Turkish soldiers along the border, killing one Turkish officer and injuring five soldiers. One Islamic State fighter was also killed. Unconfirmed reports stated that the Turkish army is conducting an operation against the Islamic State. Additionally, Turkey has finally given the US permission to use the Incirlik Air Base in the Adana Province to conduct airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria after months of negotiations.

Turkey is only stepping up to fight the Islamic State under growing pressure from other NATO countries. Turkey has been noticeably unwilling to prevent the organization’s operations, and has been credibly accused of helping to arm Syrian jihadist groups, including Islamic State and Al Qaeda. The Kurds have been most successful in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, and the Turkish government’s political problems with the Kurds could be solved if the Islamic State successfully defeated them. Fighting in Turkey will probably escalate in the near future, but there is an increasing risk that it will be between different groups: the Turkish military, the Kurdish militias, and the Islamic State, with each group fighting the others.

Explosions in Turkey and Syria Target Kurds

On July 20, a bombing in Suruc, Turkey killed dozens of people and wounded 100. Turkish officials believe that a suicide bomber carried out the attack. Turkish media reported that the attacker was an 18-year-old woman affiliated with the Islamic State (IS), though this has not been verified.

The blast targeted approximately 300 people from the Socialist Youth Associations Federation (SGDF) who had gathered at the Amara Culture Center. The group was planning to volunteer in Kobane, Syria to help rebuild the city after a series of IS attacks caused severe damage. Suruc, near the border between Turkey and Syria, houses many refugees who have fled Kobane after heavy fighting between IS and Kurdish militias.

In January, IS was driven out of Kobane by Kurdish forces. Late last month, its fighters, disguised as members of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), entered the city and began killing Kurdish civilians before they themselves were captured or killed. In recent weeks, IS has reportedly begun firing chemical mortar shells at the Kurds. Though it has experimented with chlorine-based chemicals in past attacks, its ability to fire chemical weapons from a distance shows a marked increase in capability.

Also on July 20, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb near a YPG checkpoint near Kobane. Though links between the two bombings have not been officially established, the explosion in Kobane is also believed to be an IS attack.

Neither attack has been officially linked to IS. However, they come 10 days after Turkey arrested 21 members of the group following a promise to NATO to crack down on militant activity. Turkey has faced criticism in the past for its ambivalent treatment of IS and for its rocky relations with the Kurds, with whom it has fought for decades. Kurdish officials regularly say that Turkey allows IS to operate unimpeded, and a former member of IS accused Turkish border guards of turning a blind eye to its operations while giving it weapons. Despite its proximity to IS activity in Syria, Turkey has largely avoided being targeted, so the July 20 attack in Suruc could indicate that the country’s hardening stance has caused IS to lash back.

Though Turkey may see a rise in militant violence, the July 20 attacks likely had very little to do with Turkey. The targets of both bombings were linked to the Kurds and Kobane, and IS has started using chemical weapons against them as well. Turkey actually has a history of acceptance of IS violence against the Kurds, raising the possibilities that Turkey may have facilitated the Suruc bombing by allowing IS militants inside its borders and that Turkish-Kurdish violence may erupt. The Kurds have generally been one of the most effective forces against IS, but the US is doing nothing to provide them assistance. In light of the new attacks, the US must start aiding the Kurds while monitoring Turkey’s actions, because the Kurds might not remain effective forever without the proper support.

Islamic State’s Dabiq 10 Emphasizes Global Jihad over Islamist Nationalism

The Islamic State recently released the tenth issue of its online magazine, Dabiq, titled “The Law of Allah or the Laws of Men.” Dabiq 10, the magazine’s Ramadan edition, focuses primarily on the Islamic State’s Muslim opponents, whom the group accuses of disregarding the word of Allah.

Dabiq 10 addresses two audiences. The first is the general global Muslim population and the second consists of other Islamist and nationalist organizations who have fought against the Islamic State. The Islamic State is trying to convince both to join its campaign of jihad against non-Muslims.

To the global Muslim population, Dabiq 10 stresses the authority of the Caliphate. In its opening remarks, the magazine states that

The call to defend the Islamic State – the only state ruling by Allah’s Sharī’ah today – continues to be answered by sincere Muslims and mujāhihīn around the world prepared to sacrifice their lives and everything dear to them to raise high the word of Allah and trample democracy and nationalism.

Repeatedly, Dabiq 10 denounces nationalism and calls upon Muslims to pledge their allegiance to the Islamic State, which serves Allah above men and nations. The magazine emphasizes the importance of Shariah and points to a hierarchy within Islamic law; it sees itself as having a monopoly over the understanding of this hierarchy. For example, it talks of the Islamic duty to honor one’s parents. However, the magazine notes that children must disobey parents that order their children to defy Shariah,  specifically addressing situations when children are forbidden by their parents to participate in jihad, saying,

Ibn Qudāmah said, “If jihād becomes obligatory upon him then the permission of his parents is not taken into consideration because the jihād has become fard ‘ayn and abandonment of it is a sin. There is no obedience to anyone in disobedience of Allah.”

The Islamic State believes that it represents the only legitimate source of Shariah jurisprudence as a result of having established the Caliphate under AbuBakr Al-Baghdadi. As a result, its declarations “to the sincere Muslims around the world to march forth and wage war against the crusaders and apostates who seek to wipe out the Sharī’ah” carry with them the force of religious obligation and law.

Continuing on this theme of its religious superiority, Dabiq 10 specifically talks about Muslim women whose husbands are either not Muslim or who are Muslim but fight against the Islamic State. These women are instructed to abandon their husbands and family. According to the magazine,

It is not permissible for you in any case to remain under the same roof with someone who has removed the noose of Islam from his neck, and the marriage contract between you and him was nullified the moment when he apostatized from the religion of Islam. …As such, any relationship you have with him is a relationship that is impermissible according to the Sharī’ah. Rather, it amounts to zinā (fornication), so beware.

Fornication carries with it severe punishments, including possibly stoning, so this represents  a thinly veiled threat to both the Islamic State’s enemies, and their spouses.

When addressing other Islamist and nationalist organizations, Dabiq 10 is fiercely critical of the numerous Kurdish nationalist groups and Al Qaeda-affiliated groups. It acknowledges that Kurdish fighters have had some success against its own armies, but it says that Kurdish gains have come at the cost of complete submission to the American “crusaders.” It puts forth the additional point that these Kurdish victories will be short-lived because they have a nationalist, rather than Islamist, agenda. The magazine says,

It should be noted here that all nationalist agendas in the Muslim’s usurped lands are ultimately doomed to fail, even those that seek to unite the members of one nation, or even one ethnicity as in the case of the Kurdish murtaddīn. This includes the agenda of the “Islamist” nationalists, who would readily sacrifice their religion for the sake of temporary political gain, in contrast with the mujāhidīn of the Khilāfah who would readily cut off the heads of the murtaddīn from their own people in defense of Allah’s Sharī’ah.

Dabiq 10 uses a similar argument to criticize Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, its affiliate in Yemen. These groups are faulted for working with nationalist militias and for failing to enforce Shariah law in areas they control. It accuses these groups of following the laws of men and paying no heed to the laws of Allah, because

Some of those mentioned had fallen into apostasy… like those who permit partaking in the shirkī democratic elections, or those who seek intercession from the absent and dead, or those who take the Arab and non-Arab tawāghīt as well as the Crusaders as close allies, or those who deny some of the obvious, definite laws of the Sharī’ah.

Muslims fighting in nationalist groups against the Islamic State are called upon to “repent to Allah and wake up, for by Allah you are fighting the Sharī’ah whether you realize it or not. So gather your brothers, rise in unison, and kill those who order you to fight against those who rule with the Sharī’ah.”

The magazine focuses more closely on Jahbat al-Nusra, whom it calls the “Jawlānī front” in reference to the group’s leader Abu Muhammed Al-Joulani.  It calls Nusra out for Joulani’s recent interview with Al Jazeera, where he specifically stated that the group is not attacking the Druze in Syria. Dabiq 10 features its own interview with Abū Samīr al-Urdunī, a former member of the organization who defected to the Islamic State. According to Urdunī, Nusra fighters were tricked into fighting the Islamic State because they were deceived into believing that Islamic State fighters were members of the pro-Assad Syrian army. Urdunī provided an anecdote to this effect, saying,

One of the soldiers saw a signboard that had drawn on it the flag of the Islamic State. So he shouted, “The Islamic State will remain!” So Abū ‘Abbās stopped the convoy and said to the soldier, “What are you saying?” He said, “The Islamic State will remain. These are our brothers.” He said to him “Do you not know where you are going?” He said “I don’t know.” He said “How do you not know? You are going to fight the Islamic State…” The soldiers said, “We do not want to fight the Islamic State and we don’t agree with fighting it. They told us that we were going for ribāt at the 17th.”

Ribat typically refers to border or guard duty. The 17th is likely a reference to the 17th Syrian division, an Assad regime army unit which had been stationed at a base near the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqa.

The remaining Islamist organization that Dabiq 10 addresses is the Taliban. It publishes a question from a member of the Taliban who is unsure if he should remain loyal to the Taliban’s leader, Mullah Omar, or if he should defect to the Islamic State. The article makes clear the Islamic State’s stance on the ongoing feud between the two groups over control of Islamist activity in Afghanistan. The magazine describes the Taliban as a nationalist movement, pointing out that Taliban leader Mullah Omar has been at best circumspect about his global ambitions, and never publicly declared his position as Caliph. In contrast, the Islamic State is a global movement which purports to have established the Caliphate, therefore rendering the Islamic State the supreme and ultimate authority. Also notable is the claim by the Islamic State that the Caliphate position must go to a Quraysh, which is the tribe of Islam’s prophet Mohammed. Mullah Omar has openly declared his ancestry, which is not Quraysh, and Al-Baghdadi claims (almost certainly falsely) that he is Quraysh and that he does meet this important requirement.

Throughout the entirety of Dabiq 10, the power of the Islamic State and its supreme authority over all of Islam is repeatedly emphasized. It is upon this mantle of religious authority as the reestablished Caliphate that the Islamic State claims the right to target and killed other Muslims who do not recognize their authority and so views even other dedicated jihadist organizations as apostates.

Twenty-One Members of IS Arrested in Turkey

On July 10, Turkish police arrested 21 people suspected of being members of the Islamic State (IS) in a major anti-terrorism operation. Three were foreigners, whose nationalities have not been released. Police also seized two hunting rifles, bullets, IS documents, electronics, and military uniforms. Arrest warrants had been issued for at least 30 people prior to the operation.

Several addresses in Istanbul, the Sanliurfa province near Syria, the Mersin province in the south, and the Kocaeli province east of Istanbul were raided. The Turkish suspects are believed to be helping IS recruit European fighters and helping them travel to Syria to join the group. The three foreigners were trying to go to Syria to fight for the group. All were taken to police headquarters in the provinces in which they were arrested.

The operation was conducted after a US delegation visited Turkey earlier this week. In discussions, Turkey promised to be more cooperative in the fight against IS. The delegation, headed by retired General John Allen, made steps toward reaching a deal with Turkey that would allow the US-led coalition forces to use the Incirlik military air base in the country’s southern Adana province to conduct airstrikes. In return, Turkey wants US help in establishing a safe zone in northern Syria near their border. The two countries have been negotiating over the details of these two points since last year.

Turkey, a member of NATO, has faced international criticism for not contributing to the fight against IS, and it has a number of reasons for not wanting to take part in the battle. It wants to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad removed from office; fighting IS and subsequently stabilizing the country goes against its political interests. In the past, it has said that it will only join the fight against IS if the US helps to set up the buffer zone in northern Syria, which the US has been reluctant to do. Additionally, the Turkish government and IS both hate the Kurds, who are an incredibly effective on-the-ground fighting force against IS. Seeing the Kurds fall at the hands of IS would be a political victory for Turkish President Erdogan.

In an interview last year, a former member of IS going by the pseudonym Sherko Omer, who initially travelled to Syria to join the Free Syrian Army’s fight against Assad but found himself forced into joining IS, explained Turkey’s role in aiding the group. He said that Turkey actually provided support by not doing anything to stop its illicit activities. According to him, the Turkish army was providing IS weapons and ammunition while allowing the militants to cross the border with Syria, and IS military commanders openly discussed their collaboration with Turkish officials.

In a separate interview, Salih Muslim, the co-chairman of Syria’s Kurdish Democratic Union Party, talked about many of the same things as Omer. He acknowledged that asserting the Turkish government directly aids IS may be an overstatement, but he explained that the government clearly turned a blind eye to the operations of Turkish NGOs that have helped foreign fighters travel to Syria. As evidence of Turkish complicity, he talked of the Kurds finding Turkish travel documents on the bodies of IS killed militants, suggesting that they were purposefully given the papers to allow them to easily cross the Syrian border.

Given Turkey’s history of helping IS both directly and indirectly, the July 10 arrests raises two questions: why now? and how serious is Turkey about maintaining this tough stance on IS?

In answer to the first question, the arrests appear to be Turkey’s attempt at demonstrating that it has chosen to stop letting IS operate freely within its borders. Given their timing immediately after the departure of the US delegation, the July 10 operation seems to be a gesture of goodwill, providing evidence that Turkey truly wants to be a part of the fight to defeat the group.

The second question is more difficult to answer due to the fact that Turkey has aided IS in the past. The US-led coalition, which wants to use Turkey as a staging site for airstrikes, must keep in mind the political reasons why Turkey did not originally work to take down IS. Turkey must be closely monitored to ensure that it keeps its word and continues to help fight the group moving forward.

Only 60 Syrians have Received US Training to Combat Islamic State

On July 7, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the US has only trained approximately 60 rebels in Syria to fight the Islamic State (IS). The number emphasizes growing concern over the efficacy of the US attempt to build up a local fighting force under American supervision.

Looking out at the Senate Armed Services Committee, Carter said, “I said the number 60, and I can look out at your faces and you have the same reaction I do, which is that that’s an awfully small number.”

Pentagon officials said they want to train 3,000 fighters by the end of 2015 and 5,400 by May 2016, but they are not on track to meet their goal. Though they have 7,000 Syrian volunteers, less than one percent has been able to successfully pass the strict vetting process thus far.

Carter talked about the difficulty in determining which volunteers should receive training, saying that “we make sure that they, for example, aren’t going to pose a green-on-blue threat to their trainers; that they don’t have any history of atrocities.” The vetting requirements dictate that the US must be able to ensure that those trained will focus solely on IS rather than on also fighting the soldiers defending the Assad regime. Additionally, Volunteers must pass a counterintelligence screening.

When Carter announced the $500 million training program was finally starting after a number of delays in May 2015, he said that 400 volunteers had been cleared to receive training. At the time of his May announcement, he noted that 90 Syrians had already begun the program and that another group would join them “in the next few weeks.”

Carter acknowledged in May that “this is a complex program” that is “going to have to evolve over time” and that “any continued support for [the fighters] would be strongly conditioned upon their continued good conduct.” However, the number of program participants he gave to the Senate Armed Services Committee on July 7 (60) is smaller than the number he gave in May (90), and clearly does not include the nearly 300 more that were originally supposed to join the training. No indication was given as to the reasons for the decrease in numbers.

The program was approved by Congress in October 2014. Before its approval, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, cautioned that “we have to do it right, not fast.”

The Pentagon must acknowledge that after a certain point doing it right becomes doing it fast. Currently, Kurdish forces have proven to be the most effective in combating IS. However, The US is working closely with the Iraqi government, which opposes an armed Kurdish force. This opposition has led the US to attempt to block Arab states’ efforts to directly arm the Kurds while also refusing to aid them itself. Everyone wants to defeat IS, but only IS is helped by these attempts to sabotage the Kurds, who are currently the most effective resistance to the group. After a certain point the US must consider whether or not vetting Syrian rebels is taking too long while also taking into account the possibility that large numbers of Syrian rebels may not actually be worthy of arming. In order to bring about real change in the fight against IS in Syria, the US should side with the already existing and effective fighters, rather than the ideal-but-imaginary force they want.