Tag Archives: Menges Hemispheric Security Project

Venezuela Brief: Countdown to Tyranny IV

by the Menges Hemispheric Security Project


 


Violence levels in Venezuela worry Amnesty International


 


Due to the escalation of violence and protests against the Constitutional Referendum proposed by Chvez, Amnesty International has urged the Venezuelan government to take into account these incidents. Amnesty says the government needs to guarantee appropriate conduct by members of the security forces, who should keep their weapons in check without attacking the students who protest daily in the streets.


 


In the last few days, the police and the National Guard have breached the autonomy of universities in the cities of Caracas, Barinas, Mrida and Barquisimeto, and the confrontations have left two people dead and many injured. The atmosphere in Venezuela is extremely tense and many fear that the violence might get out of control.


 


Former Candidate Manuel Rosales and the Vice-President of the Venezuelan Episcopalian Conference, call people to vote against the Reform


 


In a campaign that has extended throughout the whole country to out-win nonparticipation in the Referendum, Manuel Rosales and Monsignor Lckert are trying to convince people to vote against the Referendum, since they believe the Constitutional Reforms deprive people of their freedom, impose a socialist model on society and give unlimited powers to the President.


 


They are doing this because Venezuelans are skeptical that their votes will not be respected since they believe the National Electoral Council is controlled by the government. In addition, they are suspicious about the voter’s list for the national elections and, in general, distrust the whole electoral process which lacks transparency.


 


 


Niveles de violencia en Venezuela alarman a Amnista Internacional


 


La violencia que ha escalado en las ltimas semanas en Venezuela ante el Referndum Constitucional planteado por Chvez para el 2 de diciembre, ha llevado a Amnista Internacional a instar al gobierno a tomar en cuenta estos incidentes y garantizar que las fuerzas de seguridad acten de forma adecuada, controlando el porte de armas y sin agredir a los estudiantes que protestan diariamente en las calles.


 


En los ltimos das, la polica y la Guardia Nacional han violado la autonoma universitaria en ciudades como Caracas, Barinas, Mrida y Barquisimeto, y de los enfrentamientos han resultado dos muertos y varios heridos.  Los das en Venezuela transcurren con gran tensin y temor de que se desborde la violencia.


 


Ex candidato Manuel Rosales y Vicepresidente de la Conferencia Episcopal venezolana, llaman a votar por el No a la reforma


 


En una campaa que se ha extendido en el pas para vencer el abstencionismo en el Referndum de diciembre, Manuel Rosales y Monseor Lckert, llaman a votar por el No en el Referndum por considerar que la Reforma Constitucional va en contra de las libertades del pueblo, impone un modelo socialista y otorga poderes ilimitados al Presidente.


 


Este llamado se hace ante la falta de confianza de los venezolanos de que su voto se respete, dadas las dudas que genera un Consejo Nacional Electoral en manos del gobierno, un padrn electoral poco claro y un mecanismo electoral que no garantiza la transparencia.

Venezuela Brief: Countdown to Tyranny III


by the Menges Hemispheric Security Project.








“Silence is golden” – Chavez is trying to harass his critics into quiescence.
Geneva – The International Labor Organization (ILO) censored the Venezuelan government’s performance for violating the rights of employers and their associations. ILO Governing Body implemented the recommendations made by the Committee on Trade Union Freedom, following a complaint filed by the Ibero-American Business Organizations (OIE) against Venezuela. Since 2003, OIE has filed multiple charges with ILO to denounce “harassment of businessmen present in Venezuela and their associations, as well as some media outlets,” OIE Secretary-General Antonio Pealosa stated.


The International Labor Organization has asked Venezuela to investigate suspected kidnappings and harassment of private sector employers, as well as property confiscations , officials said. A key ILO committee submitted a report recommending that Venezuela address accusations of expropriation of land and measures taken against employers, including the abduction of three sugar producers in 2006.


[More]Acting on a complaint brought by the International Organization of Employers (IOE), it cited suspected harassment of employers’ leaders in hostile speeches by President Hugo Chvez and a climate of intimidation. ILO regrets that the Government has ignored the offer of ILO technical assistance in order to move forward in solving the many problems that exist.


The ILO committee voiced concern at suspected discrimination against the business chamber, Fedecmaras, and called on Caracas to investigate a pro-governmental mob which forced its way into Fedecmaras offices and damaged property in March. Fedecmaras head, Albis Munoz, and eight other employer leaders should be allowed to travel, it said. Her predecessor Carlos Fernandez, who is in the United States, should be permitted to return to Venezuela without risk of reprisals and an arrest warrant against him should be annulled.


The IOE, a Geneva-based body linking employers’ groups in 140 countries, welcomed the ILO decision – which also said authorities should remove restrictions on independent media. “It is recognition of our concerns,” IOE Secretary-General Antonio Pealosa told Reuters. “Fedecmaras was attacked in March by people close to Chvez, who used municipal or official cars. We have their names and pictures,” he said. “The police force was close but remained passive and they didn’t do anything to prevent the attack.”


Concerning the attacks on means of communication, which resulted in the closing of Radio Caracas TV and the harassment of Globovisin, the Government is requested to refrain from interference in the editorial policy of independent communication media , including the use of economic and legal sanctions, and to guarantee the existence of independent means of communication, as this is essential for the exercise of fundamental rights and freedom of expression of employers and workers.


Given the nature of the proposed constitutional reforms, it is likely that Venezuela under Chavez’s iron rule will impose more burdens and restrictions on privately owned businesses.


 


Venezuela al da: cuenta regresiva hacia la Tirana – III 


Ginebra.- La Organizacin Internacional del Trabajo (OIT) censur la actuacin del Gobierno de Venezuela por violar los derechos de los empresarios y de sus asociaciones. El Consejo de Administracin de la OIT adopt las recomendaciones que hizo el Comit de Libertad Sindical del organismo, que a su vez recogi las quejas de las Organizaciones Empresariales Iberoamericanas (OIE) contra Venezuela


Desde 2003, la OIE ha elevado varias quejas ante la OIT para denunciar “el acoso a los empresarios en Venezuela y a sus asociaciones, as como a algunos medios de comunicacin”, dijo el secretario general de la OIE, Antonio Pealosa.


 


La OIT tambin solicita al Gobierno que deje sin efecto la orden de captura y procesamiento de Carlos Fernndez, ex presidente de Fedecmaras, para que pueda regresar a Venezuela sin sufrir represalias. Adems, pide que se le devuelva la libertad de poder viajar  a la ex presidenta de Fedecmaras, Albis Muoz, y a ocho dirigentes empresariales ms y tambin solicita al Gobierno que no interfiera en las asociaciones empresariales “con la promocin de organizaciones afectas al rgimen”. 


La resolucin reclama que responda a los alegatos de la OIE sobre secuestros, invasiones, confiscaciones y expropiaciones. “Se trata mayoritariamente de propietarios de plantaciones agrcolas que perdieron sus terrenos y a cuyas alegaciones el Gobierno an no ha respondido incluyendo el decomiso de tres productores de azcar en el 2006, dijo Pealosa. No obstante, el dirigente empresarial seal que la OEI, que agrupa a empresarios de 140 pases, est “satisfecha” por la resolucin adoptada hoy. 


Por ltimo la OIT subraya la obligacin del gobierno venezolano de garantizar el ejercicio de los derechos de las organizaciones de empleadores en un clima exento de temor, intimidacin y violencia, instndole a que identifique y emprenda acciones judiciales en contra quienes en marzo amenazaron a dirigentes empresariales, atacaron y destrozaron el exterior de las instalaciones de la sede de FEDECAMARAS. La OIT se lamenta de que “el Gobierno rechace la oferta de asistencia tcnica de la propia OIT para avanzar en la solucin de los numerosos problemas existentes”.


En cuanto a los ataques a los medios de comunicacin, a raz del cierre de Radio Caracas TV y al acoso a Globovisin, se solicita al gobierno que se abstenga de toda injerencia en la lnea editorial de los medios de comunicacin autnomos y que garantice la existencia de medios de expresin independientes, por ser medios esenciales para el ejercicio de los derechos fundamentales y libertades de expresin de empresarios y trabajadores.


Dada la naturaleza de las “reformas” constitucionales propuestas, es muy probable que Venezuela, bajo la mano dura de Chvez, imponga ms cargas y restricciones a la empresa privada.

Venezuela Brief: Countdown to Tyranny II

by The Menges Hemispheric Security Project








Where’s the beef?  Chavista socialism is causing food shortages in Venezuela.
Amid oil opulence, Venezuelans are now spending hours in line waiting to buy basic foodstuffs. For several months now there have been reports of food shortages. Supermarket shelves remain stocked with aged whiskey and imported wine, but basic products are nowhere to be found. First there was a shortage of sugar and people started to use brown sugar when they could find it. Then there was no meat so Venezuelan’s could only eat chicken since fish is too expensive. Next the supermarkets had no milk, cooking oil or black beans. There are now no eggs, no powdered milk, nothing. To go out to the supermarket, people need to wear low-heeled shoes because they have to walk a lot in order to get what they need, despite leftist President Hugo Chavez’s social program that promises to provide low-cost groceries for the majority poor.


[More]In an effort to resolve this problem, the government has, among other things, removed taxes on certain goods. Nevertheless, the situation appears to be getting worse as products have not become less expensive. There is not only trouble with food shortages but also with medicines and cosmetics. People in Venezuela say that it is hard to find certain labels, for example, and they have to buy things of lesser quality. Sometimes there are areas of the supermarket that are completely empty. Many people wonder if they are living in a war zone and some are beginning to feel that what they are enduring already resembles Cuba.


Businesses say price controls on staple foods are so low they discourage investment and force stores to sell at a loss. Venezuelans waste several hours a week trawling for food. Retailers ration their supplies, and some even stamp customers’ hands so they do not line up twice. A black market has sprung up where informal vendors illegally peddle bags of sugar, beans and precious powdered milk — for as much as double the regulated price.


Of course, Chavez doesn’t acknowledge this problem and says all of this is to help the poor. After all, when you can buy a gallon of gasoline for 16 cents, who needs to eat?


Protests


Several media outlets in Caracas have reported today that the new protests where thousands of students from all over the country participated against Chavez’s Constitutional “reforms,” left many students wounded. There were violent confrontations with the police in many Universities and there are reports of protesters having bullet and pellet wounds. Allegedly, one is in critical condition. Some newspapers have published news that many students have been detained by the authorities.


Demonstrations also occurred in other cities: Maracay ,Valencia ,Yaracuy and Puerto La Cruz and there is information that many professors joined their students. For this Sunday, all the student leaders will join their forces and will march in a huge demonstration to reject Chavez’s plans to turn Venezuela into an oppressive and tyrannical country.


 


Venezuela al da: cuenta regresiva hacia la Tirana – II 


A pesar que en Venezuela abunda el petrleo, Chvez esta llevando a su pas al totalitarismo siguiendo los pasos de Fidel Castro. Por meses, ha habido reportes de escasez de alimentos bsicos. Los estantes de los supermercados estn llenos de whisky y vinos caros, pero los productos bsicos brillan por su ausencia. Primero fue el azcar y la poblacin empez a usar azcar rubia cuando la lograban encontrar. Luego haba escasez de carne y los venezolanos empezaron a consumir pollo ya que el pescado es muy caro. Despus la gente no poda encontrar leche, aceite y frijoles. No hay huevos, leche en polvo; nada. Para salir de compras, las personas tienen que usar zapatillas ya que tienen que caminar por horas para tratar de obtener lo bsico a pesar que el programa social de Hugo Chvez prometa dar alimentos a bajo costo a los pobres. Es un desastre. Como no hay leche baja en grasa, la gente tiene que mezclar agua con calcio.


En un esfuerzo por resolver el problema, el gobierno elimin los impuestos a ciertos alimentos. Pero la situacin cada vez est peor. Los productos no bajan de precio; pero no solo eso; tambin faltan medicinas y cosmticos de ciertas marcas y los venezolanos se ven obligados a usar productos de peor calidad. Muchas veces hay zonas enteras de los supermercados que estn completamente vacas. Muchos se preguntan si estn viviendo en una zona de guerra o si ya estn sufriendo los efectos de la “cubanizacin” de Venezuela.


Las PYMES (pequeas y medianas empresas) dicen que los controles de precios sobre los productos bsicos desaniman a los inversionistas quienes se ven forzados a cerrar sus negocios tomando prdidas. Los venezolanos desperdician varias horas de su tiempo tratando de encontrar comida. Los minoristas muchas veces tienen que racionar su stock y algunos ponen sellos en las manos de los consumidores para que no regresen a comprar. Un mercado negro ya esta operando donde los informales venden productos bsicos al doble del precio regular.


Por supuesto, Chvez no reconoce este problema y dice que todo lo hace para ayudar a los pobres. Despus de todo, cuando puedes comprar un galn de gasolina por 16 centavos, quien necesita comer?


Protestas


Varios medios de comunicacin de la capital venezolana informaron hoy que las nuevas protestas en donde participaron miles de jvenes en todo el pas, dejaron varios estudiantes heridos. Hubo enfrentamientos con la polica en varias universidades y hay reportes de estudiantes heridos de bala y perdigones. (Hay un estudiante que se encuentra en grave estado). Algunos diarios han publicado noticias de varios jvenes que han sido detenidos por las autoridades mientras marchaban.


Las manifestaciones estudiantiles se realizaron tambin en las ciudades de Maracay, Valencia, Yaracuy y Puerto La Cruz, y hay reportes que varios profesores se unieron a sus alumnos. Para este domingo, todos los lderes estudiantiles tienen planeado unir a sus agrupaciones y organizar una gran manifestacin en rechazo de las pretensiones de Chvez de convertir a Venezuela en un estado opresor y tirnico.

Countdown to tyranny in Venezuela

On Friday November 3, the Venezuelan Congress voted to approve a constitutional reform that would allow President Hugo Chavez to be re-elected indefinitely. The same amendment will enable the President to handpick rulers of new regions to be created in the future, and, will also facilitate expropriations of private property. This setting will help consolidate Chavez absolutist rule, which will eventually end in a totalitarian XXI century socialism. Opposition forces and students in Venezuela organized protests against the project that is scheduled to be ratified by popular vote on December 2nd.

General Raul Baduel, a friend of Hugo Chavez, a protector and an accomplice of Chavez who has supported the process of ‘totalitariazation’ of Venezuela for the last five years (including the co-optation of the army into Chavez political agenda) rebelled against the constitutional reform. Baduel claims that this constitutional reform goes against the rights of the people. He urged the population to vote against the ratification of the reform and urged Congress and the judiciary to restore the people’s rights. Baduel has expressed concern over violence and civil war in Venezuela.

[More]Hanz Dietrich, the German ideologist of the idea of XXI century socialism, a strong supporter of Chavez and the idea of Latin American integration into a socialist Bolivarian framework, wrote a column on November 11, expressing concern over Baduel’s revolt. He believes that Baduel’s surprising move indicates that the general is willing to become the opposition leader that Venezuela does not have right now. Dietrich is very concerned that Chavez‘s revolution is weakening and surprisingly calls to avoid conflict. He believes that a defeat for Chavez on December 2 will put an end to the revolution. Thus, Dietrich calls on Chavez to co-opt Baduel, negotiate with him, cut an alliance with him, and thus prevent civil war and secure the continuation of the revolution. The very scared Dietrich is concerned about a repetition of the Bolivian case where President Evo Morales does not have enough support for his constitutional reform. Dietrich ends up the article by saying that the constitutional reform in Venezuela is not necessary after all.

Let us ask, if the power of that revolution was so strong, how come Dietrich is so concerned. In fact, Dietrich calls to co-opt Baduel and cancel the constitutional reform to continue cheating the nation. After all Dietrich is telling Chavez, you can still subjugate Venezuelans without asking them for permission.

El Nacional reports this morning that based on a poll, 40% of the Venezuelans will abstain from voting on December 2. Two groups, the Patriotic Front and the National Command for the Resistance call the population to abstain on December 2. The logic of these groups is to show that Chavez constitutional reforms are supported by a minority and not by a majority as Chavez wants. By contrast General Baduel has called on people to vote "no" on December 2. Baduel seems to believe in the honesty of the process.

Meanwhile it has been reported that 11 organizations have expressed public opposition to the constitutional reforms.

El Universal reports this morning that the Business association (Fedecameras) expressed public opposition to the constitutional reforms predicting a period of civil war and violence in Venezuela. Fedecameras president Juan Manuel Gonzales stated that constitutional reforms seek to "perpetuate the power of one will, one voice. The constitutional reform also is trying to transform us from being citizens in a democratic republic into activists of an enslaving socialism"

Gonzales also denounced that the fact that there are petro-dollars circulating in the market does not mean that the economy is strong. "There is no milk, there is no sugar. Soon we will not have cereals, medicines and materials for construction and efficient manpower to work in agriculture". "We are experiencing scarcity of basic products. This is a situation we never experienced before". Price-controls in Venezuela have systematically discouraged production in the last several years.

Meanwhile El Nacional reports this morning that Chavez is planning to travel to Teheran next week. The reason for their visit is to follow up on previous agreements signed between Caracas and Teheran. The Venezuelan Ambassador in Tehran, Arturo Gallego reiterated Venezuela’s support for Iran’s nuclear program.

Would there be any relation between the internal revolt in Venezuela and Chavez’s trip to Tehran? After all the Iranians have been very skillful in repressing opposition forces. Perhaps the Iranians will teach them something Venezuelans do not know.

Venezuela Brief: Countdown to Tyranny I

To our readers:


Due to the dire situation inside Venezuela, the staff at the Americas Report will publish daily news briefs between now and December 2, 2007 when the Chavez “reforms” are due to voted on by the electorate. In addition to keeping our readers informed of the latest news coming out of Venezuela, we also want to salute the courage of the students and all those in opposition to this latest attempt by Mr. Chavez to turn Venezuela into a totalitarian state. We welcome your comments and any information you believe is relevant to the situation. We may be contacted at: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org.


A Nuestros Lectores:


Debido a la terrible situacin que se esta viviendo actualmente en Venezuela, el equipo del “Americas Report” publicar noticias todos los das desde hoy hasta el 2 de Diciembre del 2007, fecha en la que el pueblo votara si acepta o no las “Reformas Constitucionales” de Chavez. Adems de mantenerlos informados sobre los ltimos acontecimientos en Venezuela, queremos felicitar a los estudiantes de ese pas y opositores el rgimen, por la valenta demostrada en su lucha por tratar de impedir que el Sr. Chavez convierta a Venezuela en un pas totalitario. Con gusto recibiremos y leeremos sus comentarios y cualquier informacin relevante con respecto a esta situacin. Nos podrn contactar al: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org.


“Venezuela News Brief: Countdown to Tyranny I”


On Friday November 3, the Venezuelan Congress voted to approve a constitutional reform that would allow President Hugo Chavez to be re-elected indefinitely. This setting will help consolidate Chavez absolutist rule, which will eventually end in a totalitarian XXI century socialism. Opposition forces and students in Venezuela organized protests against the project that is scheduled to be ratified by popular vote on December 2…learn more opening the attachment.


“Venezuela al da: cuenta regresiva hacia la tirana I”


El viernes 3 de diciembre, el Congreso Venezolano aprob una reforma constitucional que permitir al Presidente Hugo Chvez ser reelecto indefinidamente. Este escenario ayudara al Presidente Chvez a consolidar su poder absoluto que en definitiva terminara convirtiendo a Venezuela en un pas totalitario logrando finalmente lo que Chvez llama el “socialismo del siglo XXI.” Las fuerzas opositoras y miles de estudiantes organizaron protestas en contra de este proyecto que est programado a ser ratificado por voto popular el 2 de Diciembre…sepa mas abriendo el attachment.


Main News:



  • Ibero-American summit ends in Chile.



  • Ibero – American summit: Spain’s king tells Chvez, Why don’t you shut up?’ (Video available). Chilean FM takes sides with Spain in impasse with Chvez. Chavez threatens Spanish firms in Venezuela. Despite booming oil prices, Venezuela with the highest country risk in the region. Chvez’s landings in Bolivia spark protest. Chvez on “rush” tour on Saudi Arabia, Iran, France, Portugal. Congress asks Venezuelan govn’t to declare IAPA persona non grata. Venezuela Keeps Official Exchange Rate Despite Flourishing Currency Black Market Trade. Petrobras leaves gas project in Venezuela. Fedecmaras: Govn’t is sponsoring rejection against constitutional reform. University students spread over freeway against changes to the Constitution. Chavez to Meet with Colombian ELN.



  • “People Summit” Concludes in Santiago de Chile.



  • Bolivia : Morales has delivered USD 80 million in Venezuelan checks. Strike over back wages halts Bolivia ‘ s busiest airport.



  • Uribe-Chvez ties unlikely to harm Colombia-US relations. Colombian President would like FARC chief to meet with justice.



  • Chile : Bachelet refuses Chvez offer to back “Transantiago”. Strong earthquake shakes Chile.  



  • Brazilian Congress postpones voting on Venezuela’s admission to Mercosur.



  • Peru & China to Negotiate Free Trade Agreement. Venezuela’s Investment in Peru’s Oil Resisted by Critics.



  • Argentina: Cristina Kirchner names Cabinet. Argentina : Iran seeks arrests of Argentines (AMIA). South Bank to Open in Argentina.

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Ver la versin completa del Informe de Amricas (PDF)




For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org or to hemisphericsecurity@gmail.com. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Ecuador’s reforms: in the footsteps of Chavez

This past September Ecuadorians went to the polls and voted for a constituent assembly whose function it will be to write a new constitution. The new constitution is scheduled to be written within 180 days of the September 30th election. The Assembly has been given full powers, and since the overwhelming majority of Assembly members belong to Correa’s party, members of the assembly will likely adopt principles that will follow Correa’s dictates and wishes. Many observers agree that the constitution Correa is pursuing will follow the Venezuelan model. An analysis of Ecuador’s worrisome situation.

Articulo en español publicado 1ro de Noviembre, 2007: "El Gran error del Congreso Americano con respecto a Colombia podría significar el triunfo de Chávez."

Para leer el artículo, porfavor abrir el attachment. (PDF)

NEWS:

  • Guatemalan Voters Elect Businessman.
  • Bush asks Congress to pass free trade agreements to tackle "false populism."
  • UN Chief on Biofuel Balance in Brazil.
  • Ibero-Am Leaders Unify in Chile.
  • Iran, Cuba to form shipping company.
  • Venezuela ‘s Chavez to Press Ahead with Changes, despite violent Protests. Venezuela police clash with students protesting constitutional reforms. Property under state control. Former Minister of Defense Raúl Isaías Baduel: Tell "no" to Chávez’ reform. Chávez: "Baduel is just another traitor." Baduel does not rule out entering the political arena. Chávez: FARC’s envoys are in Venezuela. Hostages’ relatives hopeful about Chávez-FARC meeting. Andean Community to address Venezuela’s return. Venezuela to Issue $1.5 Billion Bonds, Introduce New Currency in 2008.
  • Colombia: FARC-Chávez meeting should not be a "social gathering."
  • Oil Prices Soar, Dollar Dives.  
  • Venezuela allegedly funding trade union rally and ALBA offices in Peru. Peru: Authorities to Explain Terrorist Attack on Police Station in Apurímac.
  • Interpol issues arrest warrants to Iranians involved in the 1994 AMIA bombing.

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

America’s blunder, Chavez’s success

The recent Colombian elections for governors, mayors, plus state and city legislators were remarkable, with much good news about the state of democracy in the long troubled country. Unfortunately, there was as much gloomy news as the nation looks to 2010 presidential elections. Good, bad or neutral, these polls between the 2006 and 2010 presidential races resemble U.S. midterms where future trends are often detected.

First, the good news, representing a stark contrast to elections in neighboring Venezuela:

  • Nearly 15.5 million men and women cast ballots – some 48 percent of registered voters – an increase of more than 20% over 2003.
  • 86,449 candidates competed for 18,527 positions with an historic low in violence [sadly, 20 candidates lost their lives, at least 15 at the hands of FARC, the ruthless communist terrorist and narcotics trafficking organization].
  • Overall, non-radical candidates won a significant majority of executive and legislative races.

Clearly, the elections reflected a vibrant democratic spirit throughout the country. That said, however, portents for the presidential stakes in 2010 have become even more clouded than they were pre-election.

Last year’s presidential race was won overwhelmingly by incumbent President Alvaro Uribe, who received more than 62% of the popular vote. Tellingly, Marxist professor and former judge Carlos Gaviria of the ultra-leftist, Polo Democrático, party finished a distant second with 22% and the candidate of Colombia’s long-established Liberal party, placed third.

To be sure, the Liberal candidate, Horacio Serpa, was a previous two-time loser, accused of having close ties to narco-traffickers, but Polo Democrático had well-known ties to the murderous FARC guerrillas and clear ties to Venezuelan dictator, Hugo Chavez.

Last Sunday’s election results cause concern because the Polo Democrático candidate for mayor of Bogotá, Samuel Moreno, won a resounding victory, retaining control for the party of the country’s second most powerful elective position. Receiving nearly 44 percent of votes cast, while the second place candidate mustered just over 28 percent, Moreno’s 900 thousand votes were the most ever cast for a mayoral candidate.

Moreno’s victory was a stinging setback for President Uribe who backed the second place finisher, former mayor Enrique Penálosa. Polo Democrático’s chances for winning the presidency in 2010 are thus significantly strengthened. Should this happen, Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution will have gained its biggest prize yet: Colombia, the United States’ strongest Latin American ally.  

The Chavez regime machine is already laying extensive groundwork, contacting some two million Colombians living in Venezuela illegally, to offer them permanent residence, jobs and/or "settlement stipends" on condition they remain loyal to the "Bolivarian Revolution."  

Chavez has allowed the FARC to establish bases in southwest Venezuela and residences for its representatives in Caracas. Mobile medical clinics have been sent to the Venezuelan–Colombian border, where Cuban doctors provide free medical services to thousands of Colombian campesinos in neighboring areas.

With Polo Democrático retaining political control of critically important Bogotá at least through 2011, the 2010 presidential race becomes very problematic.  Consider the following scenario:

  • Polo Democrático nominates a popular figure, such as former President Cesar Gaviria, leader of the Liberal party, to run in a united front.
  • The nominee receives the support of Polo Democrático’s political organization in Bogotá.
  • The nominee receives clandestine support from the FARC, who have long been Polo Democrático supporters, which retain strong organizations in several rural and southern areas of the country.
  • Hugo Chavez, who has said he would spend $5 billion or more in the coming election, provides a substantial amount to the FARC for "campaign expenses".
  • The FARC pays 50 thousand pesos [$25.00] to millions who would normally have voted for an opposing candidate, or not voted at all.

While publicly denying the possibility of such a drastic change, respected political analysts privately worry that the above is indeed possible.  Unfortunately, as they see no single, strong center-right candidate on the horizon, some have proposed that President Uribe be drafted to serve a third four year term.

Such a development would severely cloud Colombia’s great democratic achievements during the last several years, with detractors charging the nation’s president had become convinced – like so many developing world leaders – he was indispensable to Colombia’s continued survival.   Rather, it is incumbent on President Uribe and like-minded leaders to select and support an equally incorruptible candidate who embraces solid democratic principles.

Many of Bogotá’s elites contend Polo Democrático cannot possibly succeed nationally, saying the citizenry would reject such radical leadership.  They cite the generally conservative nature of the population plus the need for the winning presidential candidate to get 50+ percent to win, which could mean a runoff of the two top vote getters in the event of a multi-candidate initial election.

These factors, albeit correct, ignore another indicator: many 20-something Colombians are declaring support for the red-shirted, charismatic Chavez, who has a Che Guevara-like attraction for a cross-section of youth, a possibility many of the same leaders in the country’s capital said could never happen.

The situation is further hurt by the failure of the U.S. Congress to ratify the free trade agreement that was agreed to by the two countries a year ago.  Failure to do so has played into the left’s hands as proof the United States does not stand by its friends.

 

It is also important to keep in mind that Peru might follow in Colombia’s footsteps since Ollanta Humala is already campaigning for the 2011 Presidential elections, is being funded by Hugo Chavez and is a strong believer in his Bolivarian Revolution.  

What does all this mean, potentially?  Unless current trends are reversed, the western hemisphere’s ongoing struggle to establish strong, viable democracies could well lose one of its greatest current success stories, Colombia and possibly Peru. In short, friends of a democratic Colombia – at home and abroad — must do everything possible to strengthen the country’s institutions and support proven patriotic leaders.

John R. Thomson is a Journalist, businessman and former diplomat comments frequently on developments in the developing world. 

 

America’s blunder, Chavez’s success

 

The recent Colombian elections for governors, mayors, plus state and city legislators were remarkable, with much good news about the state of democracy in the long troubled country. Unfortunately, there was as much gloomy news as the nation looks to 2010 presidential elections. Possible worrisome scenarios for Colombia’s future.

NEWS:

  • Argentina elects first lady president. Kirchners to have control over Congress. President Bush congratulates Argentine president-elect.
  • Guatemala candidates spend Millions.
  • Brazilian president dismisses speculation on third term. Brazil denies "arms race" with Venezuela. Interoceanic Highway to join Peru-Brazil and benefit millions.
  • Chavez meets with new U.S. ambassador to Venezuela. Venezuelan cocaine traffic increasing. Syria, Iran, Malaysia and Venezuela ink 2.6-billion-dollar oil deal. Venezuela to Give 14.2 Million for Emergency in Nicaragua. Venezuelans line up for milk in latest shortage. Spain’s Secretary of State meets with Chávez. Chavez’s arms race complicates the region.
  • UN condemns embargo on Cuba.
  • Peru: Japanese politicians meet in Congress to help Alberto Fujimori. U.S. House Committee approves Peru-U.S. free trade agreement unanimously. Peru seeks extradition of former top adviser of Bolivia’s Morales. Peru governor stands up for ALBA.
  • Antarctica sea bed: Chile will assert rights in UN. Bachelet Does Not Recover in Chile.
  • Evo Blasts U.S. "Imperialism" from Italy. Bolivian Senate OK’s more diesel imports from Venezuela.  

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Fujimori: The other side of the story

The latest news about former Peruvian President, Alberto Fujimori is that he has been extradited from Chile to face seven charges in Perú. The charges range from claims of having committed crimes against humanity to corruption. The Peruvian mainstream media as well as several leftist NGO’s and many self-proclaimed "intellectuals," have gone to great lengths to portray him as a corrupt criminal, a traitor, a fugitive and a murderer. But this is not what all Peruvians think of him. There is another side of Fujimori that his enemies don’t want you to know.

Peru is now a safe country, with a growing economy and on the verge of signing a beneficial Free Trade Agreement with the United States. This is the context today but seventeen years ago before Alberto Fujimori became President, in 1990, Perú was completely different. The current President, Alan García’s first term in office between 1985 and 1990 was marked by bouts of hyperinflation which reached 7,649% in 1990 and had a cumulative total of 2,200,200%, thereby profoundly destabilizing the Peruvian economy.

Owing to such chronic inflation, the Peruvian currency, the sol, was replaced by the Inti in mid-1985, which itself was replaced by the nuevo sol ("new sun"), at which time the new sol had a cumulative value of one billion (1,000,000,000) old soles. By the end of his term in 1990, national reserves were a negative $900 million dollars. García also made an attempt to nationalize the banking and insurance industries. He incurred the wrath of the International Monetary Fund and the financial community by unilaterally declaring a limit on debt repayment equal to 10% of the Gross National Product, isolating Peru from international financial markets. [1]

Peru was also in the midst of an awful civil war against two terrorist groups known as the Sendero Luminoso or "Shining Path" and Movimiento Revolucionario Tupac Amaru (MRTA). These groups controlled about a third of the country and were responsible for the death of thousands of innocent civilians.  In addition, hundreds of brave army and police personnel who fought these terror groups were killed or badly hurt while thousands of children lost their parents, many of whom witnessed their executions.  Many local government officials in the Sierra had to endure "public trials" and some of these individuals were killed in front of their communities with no chance to defend themselves. These acts were meant to scare the population so they wouldn’t cooperate with the government or dare to vote in any election.

The SL and MRTA began attacking electric towers, causing almost daily blackouts all over the country. The García administration unsuccessfully sought a military solution to the growing problem, allegedly committing human rights violations which are still under investigation. These include the Accomarca massacre, where 47 campesinos were gunned to death by the Peruvian armed forces in August of 1985, the Cayara massacre (May 1988) in which some thirty were killed and dozens disappeared, and the summary execution of more than 200 inmates during prison riots in Lurigancho, San Juan Bautista (El Frontón) and Santa Bárbara in 1986. According to an official inquiry, an estimated 1,600 forced disappearances took place during García’s presidency. His own personal involvement in these events is not clear. [2]

The MRTA used kidnapping and extortion as well as drug trafficking to finance their activities. In addition, the country was being ravaged by corruption, by drug problems, and by terrorist warfare.  Most universities were inaccessible since they were dominated by these violent groups. [3]

In general, everyday life was harsh. There were food, water and electricity shortages, car bombs exploded almost every day, killing and severely injuring thousands of people as well as members of the military and police. Soon, the attacks were also felt in the capital city of Lima and people lived in constant fear. There were limits on the amount of food each family could buy, and supermarkets were meagerly stocked as prices changed by the hour.

So when Fujimori become president in 1990 Perú was facing catastrophe. His appealing election slogan, "Honesty, work and technology" represented a departure from the failures of the traditional ruling parties. To tackle the economic problems, "El Chino," (Fujimori’s nickname "the Chinese" although he is from Japanese descent), decided to adopt a program of shock treatment similar to that advocated by defeated Vargas Llosa. Fujimori made his priorities clear: on the one hand there was an urgent need to boost the economy and on the other to eliminate terrorism. Within a year, he brought down inflation from a peak annual rate of 7,650% to 139%.   Near the end of his tenure as president in 1999, the annual rate of inflation had fallen to 3.7%. [4]   He worked non – stop, traveling all over the country, to the most remote areas to see first hand, the needs of the people.

The problem was that his political group "Cambio 90" lacked a majority in Congress. His victory that took place in the second round of elections meant that Fujimori’s group was the third party with the most members in Congress. [5] It was very difficult to implement his policies since Congress blocked all his proposals to combat terrorism and improve the economy and there was constant fighting in the legislature.   His opponents stalled all his initiatives to force him from power.

On the fifth of April, 1992, a frustrated Fujimori decided to close the Congress. Many called this action "autogolpe" or self-coup. This decision was attacked by traditional politicians and by the international community, which accused him of being antidemocratic. Surprisingly for many of his critics, he won local support and said that he would rule Peru in accordance with national interests and not to make himself more popular. According to polls, nearly 80% of the population approved of his decision. [6]

He also decided to suspend the Constitution, declaring that he needed a freer hand to introduce more economic reforms, combat terrorism and drug trafficking and root out corruption. He also purged the judiciary, dismissing 13 of 23 Supreme Court justices and dozens of other justices with alleged ties to extremist groups. Soon, he called elections for a Democratic Constitutional Congress that would serve as a legislature and a Constituent Assembly. Some parties attempted to boycott this initiative, but the Popular Christian Party and many left-leaning parties participated in the election. Fujimori won a majority and drafted a New Constitution in 1993. A referendum was scheduled, and the document was approved by a majority of the population. [7]

After the self-coup the Congress was changed from two legislative bodies to one and the army was restructured to operate directly under the president’s control. The "National Council of Defense" was established to unify the "National Service of Intelligence" (SIN) and the "Secretariat of National Defense." Fujimori appointed important military servicemen to head these institutions. Then he promoted many high-ranking military officers to participate in the government and integrated the National Police, the Armed Forces and the SIN transforming the defense apparatus into a strong ally. [8]

On the war front, the MRTA and the Shining Path were being confronted both militarily and legally. The new Constitution allowed strong measures to combat these subversive forces. These actions alienated the leftist parties, politicians and organizations which, for years, had advocated for negotiations between the government and the terrorists and had denounced any kind of military intervention. With these measures the government was able to break the drug-terrorism alliance by offering the barons protection so they would stop providing the terrorists with resources. In the end the terrorist groups were left without economic support.

Suddenly the left parties, organizations and associations disappeared from the political scene but they would never forgive Fujimori for this and continuously accused him of having committed crimes against humanity in the war against terrorism. Of course they never defended the true victims; the innocent; their only concern was the terrorists. The government established the "rondas campesinas" (peasant rounds) a program that provided the campesinos in the interior with the means to combat terrorism and defend themselves and their families.

Significant developments soon took place. Major Benedicto Jimenez, an officer in DINCOTE (The National Office Against Terrorism) who was disgusted with the civil war, had proposed to capture the leaders of the Shining Path by patient detective work and set up a small unit with that objective. On September 12th, DINCOTE led a raid on a house in an upscale neighborhood in Lima and arrested Abimael Guzmán, the Maoist leader of the Shining Path. [9] That was the turning point in the war against terrorism that is estimated to have cost 30,000 lives.

Prior to the 1995 elections Fujimori’s opponents attempted to undercut his popularity by challenging his human rights record. Despite those challenges, Fujimori’s accomplishments overwhelmed his critics at the polls, where he won the presidential elections outright, gaining more than 60% of the votes.

But then on December 17th 1996, in the residence of the Japanese ambassador, a party in honor of the Emperor’s birthday was in full swing when Tupac Amaru terrorists seized the building and took 452 guests hostage, including Fujimori’s brother, the foreign minister, the agriculture minister, high ranking army officials, the Japanese ambassador, and prominent Japanese businessmen. The terrorists demanded the release of several hundred MRTA members who were held in Peruvian prisons. Over the next four months negotiations took place and some hostages were let go but 72 were still being held enduring inhumane treatment and living under terrible conditions. Then on April 22nd 1997, all but one who suffered a heart attack, were freed in a dramatic raid by Peruvian commandos. All of the 14 MRTA members and two brave soldiers died in the assault. [10] The successful freeing of the hostages boosted Fujimori’s popularity to new heights.

 

 

On the economic front, the reinsertion of Peru into the international financial community was achieved due, in large part, to the process of privatization. The inflation rates were reduced to less than 10% and Perú was made eligible again for external loans and became an important emerging market country due to successful economic policies. On the Social Front, Fujimori constructed thousands of miles of roads, and also built schools, rural hospitals and implemented measures to alleviate poverty by bringing running water and electricity to poor communities. In addition, Peru finally achieved peace with its neighbors Ecuador and Chile. Fujimori and Ecuadorian, Jamil Mahuad, signed the "Acta de Brasilia" which ended the conflict between Lima and Quito.

Signs of Trouble

The Constitution of 1993 states that a president can be re-elected for an immediate consecutive term. Fujimori had been president since 1990 and according to many he could not run for the 2000 elections. But some close advisors decided to interpret the constitution differently which was a decision many analysts believed to be a huge mistake. Under the new Constitution, Fujimori had only been elected once since the election of 1990. His supporters approved the "Ley de Interpretación Auténtica" in August of 1996. The relationship between the government and the opposition became very strained. Critics decided to publicly act voicing their discomfort. In this process the "Tribunal Constitucional" decided to vote against the "Authentic Interpretation" and widespread opposition began to emerge. This began to undermine Fujimori’s legitimacy. After the judges of the Tribunal were dismissed, the opposition campaigned for a referendum to be conducted to decide on the interpretation of the law. The dismissed judges became the new point of convergence of the opposition forces. They began a number of protest rallies against the government. [11]

Nonetheless, Fujimori did run for President in the elections of 2000. These elections were highly criticized by international observers such as Transparency International. The Organization of American States (OAS) sent representatives to monitor the process and called for the delay of the elections arguing that the computer system that had to count the votes did not work well. A drill was performed to demonstrate otherwise and the system proved accurate. But a dark cloud began to emerge regarding the elections.

On Election Day (April 9th, 2000) some polls informed the public that Alejandro Toledo, Fujimori’s rival, had the upper hand, but Transparency International had the real figures and knew that Fujimori was the real winner. Curiously, they never informed the public thus creating an atmosphere of doubt. Opposition leaders denounced the elections as a fraud. Soon they organized the "Marcha de los Cuatro Suyos" which created a tense situation. Thousands of people arriving from all over the country participated (their transportation costs were covered by unknown people or groups) and many violent incidents occurred. The leftist groups saw this as an opportunity to act and joined forces with opposition groups, reappearing on the political scene.

There can be no understanding of the Fujimori regime without making reference to Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos Torres. Montesinos was a lawyer who had served in the military for many years. He was an obscure but efficient figure who handled the powerful National Intelligence Service since 1990. He was Fujimori’s right hand. Vladimiro was very servile when he was in the presence of Fujimori but had actually been successful in defeating terrorism and destroying the drug-trafficking machinery. But secretly, he built a huge network of personal relations that penetrated every aspect of political, economic, social and military life. He also secretly gained control over the media.

The darkest side of him was revealed in the year 2000 when it became public that he videotaped all his meetings and then used these tapes to blackmail people. In most of this so called "Vladivideos," he appeared giving huge amounts of cash to people from every sector of Peruvian society. After the uproar that ensued following the first video broadcast, Fujimori announced that he would hold new presidential and parliamentary elections in which he, himself, would not be a candidate. At the same time, he announced the dissolution of SIN, el Servicio de Inteligencia Nacional (the National Intelligence Service), of which Montesinos was chief. It is not clear who leaked the first tape to the media. Some speculate that a lover of the former chief of SIN (Matilde Pinchi Pinchi) became jealous and stole the tape wanting revenge. It is said that Montesinos had amassed a fortune of $800 million dollars thought to have been taken illegally from the Peruvian government’s coffers. But no one can say for sure where the money came from.

Montesinos had decided that if Fujimori ousted him, he would stage a military coup. Anticipating Vladimiro’s actions, the president decided to grant Montesinos immunity, giving him political asylum in Panama. The Organization of American States intervened to achieve this outcome since the atmosphere in Peru was extremely tense and Montesinos’ presence contributed to this situation. Montesinos fled to Panama but felt unsafe and contrary to what was decided with Fujimori and the OAS, he returned to Lima and went into hiding.

This scandal had already changed the distribution of political forces and the opposition tried to censure the Board of Directors of Congress (all members of Cambio 90, Fujimori’s party). If they achieved this censure, Fujimori could be overthrown. The President ordered the arrest of the former SIN chief and he was finally captured. When he saw his power slipping away, Vladimiro lost control. His illegal associations were so strong that with one order, Fujimori could be sent to jail or killed. Fujimori was advised that he had no option but to flee the country. On November 17th the President arrived in Japan after attending a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Brunei. Three days later he faxed his resignation to Congress which was rejected outright. They instead voted to sack Fujimori on the grounds that he was "morally unfit" to govern. The Board of Directors was finally censured and Valentin Paniagua became President of the transitional process until new elections could be called.

Accusations against Fujimori

The accusations against Fujimori include the 1993 slayings of nine students and a professor at La Cantuta University, which was controlled by terrorist groups, and the 1991 killings of 15 people at Barrios Altos, a working-class neighborhood of Lima. Let’s keep in mind that Peru was in a civil war and the armed forces were under extreme pressure and sadly, in every war, mistakes are made. The corruption charges involve alleged payoffs to lawmakers and to news media, illegal phone tapping and misuse of $15 million in government funds. It is important to point out that on July 17, 2007 the Chilean Supreme Court Judge, Orlando Álvarez, ruled that he had not found any evidence linking Fujimori with all the corruption cases and alleged human rights violations of which he was accused. Judge Álvarez declared to the Chilean newspaper, El Mercurio, that all the accusations were based on gossip and innuendo. The ruling was appealed to the Chilean Supreme Court. [12]

On September 21, 2007, the Chilean Supreme Court granted Fujimori’s extradition to Peru on 7 of 13 charges which passed by 3 votes in favor and 2 votes against. Fujimori and other prominent lawyers claim that the charges are politically motivated. The former President says that while his government made mistakes, his conscience is clear: The extradition "does not mean that I’ve been tried, much less convicted. … I hope that in Peru, there exists the due process to clarify the accusations against me," he told the Chilean newspaper El Mercurio. While acknowledging "gross failures," he told Peru’s RPP radio: "In the trials themselves, I will show that I acted in a correct manner." [13] Let’s bear in mind that every person is innocent until proven guilty.

Why the Fujimori regime ended

The accusations of corruption and authoritarianism contributed to create a strong opposition, but the determining factor was the feud with Montesinos and the uncertainty Fujimori felt about his future. Vladimiro could not function without Fujimori and when he saw his fate sealed he was determined to take Fujimori down with him. This ended Fujimori’s presidency after almost eleven years. But he still has huge support in Peru especially amongst the poor since many have not forgotten and remain grateful for what he did. In the latest poll (carried out in October, 2007), 54.6% of the population say they approve of his government and 35.7% say they sympathize with him. His daughter, Keiko, who is a member of Congress, has an approval rating of 41.8%. [14] These numbers are likely to grow since Fujimori just arrived in Peru a few days ago and is in jail and has not made a public appearance yet.

There are many lessons to be learned. If Fujimori had listened to all the accusations regarding Montesinos, he probably would have asked for his resignation in order to separate him from his government. If he hadn’t pushed to run again in 2000, he probably would not have encountered such strong opposition and would be viewed more favorably today.  But he made mistakes, as all humans do, which contributed to the end of his regime. Maybe Fujimori’s political career has not been sealed yet and we will stay tuned to see what happens in his trial.

Part II

 

 

To the surprise of his critics, in the latest poll (carried out in October, 2007), 54.6% of the population indicated their approval of his government and 35.7% said they sympathized with him. His daughter, Keiko, who is a member of Congress, has an approval rating of 41.8%.1 These numbers are likely to grow since Fujimori recently arrived in Peru and is in jail and has not made a public appearance yet. His many supporters still regard him as the man who rescued Peru from the verge of economic and political collapse.

He had inherited hyperinflation from the previous administration of Alan Garcia (1985-90), and had managed to stabilize this situation with help from multi-national banks. He then presided over a period of economic recovery, during which real living standards rose rapidly from the abysmal levels they had reached in 1990. Fujimori was successful too in dealing with the other scourge he had inherited from the Belaúnde (1980-1985) and Garcia (1985-1990) regimes: terrorism.

Many "human rights" organizations, his critics and enemies and the left are delighted with their "success" in bringing Fujimori back to Perú. They worked on the case for seven years and finally their efforts seem to have paid off. But they seem unaware of what Fujimori’s presence in the country might trigger.

Implications of Fujimori’s presence in Peru for the future of the Garcia regime

The first problem for the Garcia regime is that his victory in the 2006 elections was very slim and his party (APRA) lacks a majority in Congress. To pass legislation and to avoid censure of Ministers, the President’s party has relied on the support of Unidad Nacional (UN) and Alianza para el Futuro (AF), Fujimori’s political party. The problem for Alan Garcia is that just a few days after Fujimori arrived in Peru, his daughter, Keiko Sofia Fujimori, publicly claimed that her father was enduring harsh treatment in jail, even worse than the terrorist leader, Abimael Guzman. She firmly stated that her father is not allowed to walk like other inmates and that since he suffers from high blood pressure; he is not in good health and has not been allowed to take his medicines. Furthermore, Mrs. Fujimori has said that the government is responsible for all this. As expected, the former President’s followers are outraged by the news and AF Congress members have already said that they will no longer collaborate with the government.

Secondly, since APRA can no longer depend on the continued support of AF, it will have to look elsewhere for support. But the options are very limited. They may try to win over supporters of Ollanta Humala, the leftwing populist whom Garcia only narrowly defeated in the second round of presidential elections in 2006, (the Humalistas form the largest bloc in Peru’s congress), but since Chavez’s buddy is already campaigning for the 2011 elections, the Garcia regime will find it difficult to secure their cooperation. If APRA doesn’t get more people to cooperate with them in Congress, Garcia will have a hard time passing legislation and governing effectively.

Third, Fujimori is going to be tried for corruption. Garcia’s first time in office (1985 – 1990) has been widely credited as being one of the most corrupt in recent Peruvian history. Garcia narrowly managed to avoid being charged when there was congressional hearings into corruption just prior to his 1992 self – coup. Garcia fled to France and lived between Paris and Bogota and was never tried. Any hearings into corruption under Fujimori might lead to revived accusations over Garcia’s own responsibilities during his time in office. Fourth, regarding "Human Rights" accusations, the findings of Peru’s Comisión de la Verdad y Reconciliación (Truth and Reconciliation Commission or CVR), lead by prominent leftist intellectuals and published in 2003, concluded that the death-toll during the five years of Garcia’s administration was considerably higher than that during Fujimori’s time in office. Garcia’s critics have accused him of involvement in several notorious killings, including the massacres that took place in the Andean villages of Accomarca (1985) and Cayara (1988). They have also held him responsible for the mass-killings of inmates in three Lima jails in 1986. During Fujimori’s trial, these cases are likely to be brought up by Fujimori’s defense. Garcia has skeletons in his own closet regarding corruption and the revival of these cases might trigger a backlash for his regime. Fifth, Fujimori’s presence in Peru will definitely divide opinions and cause a major distraction for the current regime. The justice system will be put to a test and as the trial goes on, many will start to remember the former President’s achievements and his popularity is likely to increase. In fact, his defense might have important information under their sleeve which could have huge repercussions for the current regime. But we will have to wait for the trial to start, to see how things develop.

Implications for Ollanta Humala

It is well known that Mr. Humala’s staunchest ally and most important financier is Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez. In fact, he is already campaigning for the 2011 elections with money sent directly from Caracas. Humala was defeated by a miniscule margin in the 2006 elections so he has a huge support base. In fact, many followers of Fujimori voted for Humala since they saw in him something the former President had: charisma and the idea that he would take care of the poor as Fujimori did during his presidency.

The only person capable of defeating Humala in 2011 is Fujimori. But some people, sadly, don’t seem to recognize this. If Fujimori’s trial drags on for years and he is not able to run in the next presidential elections, Chavez will have one more friend in the region to expand his "Bolivarian Revolution." Fujimori’s capacity to attract followers is impressive. In addition, he has concrete evidence that he can do what no other President ever did by reminding people of his accomplishments. They are hard to miss: he implemented measures to achieve economic prosperity, to reinsert Peru into the international community; he defeated terrorism and achieved peace with Ecuador. In addition he built schools and hospitals in remote areas, provided poor communities with water, and electricity, and constructed thousands of miles of roads. All these accomplishments attracted foreign investment and now Peru is a more prosperous country.

Already, there is speculation that Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko, might be able to run instead of her father. This is a possibility since she won 500,000 votes in the 2006 congressional elections which was far more than any other candidate.

Soon the trial will begin and it could be the perfect platform for the Peruvian people to have their say regarding Fujimori. There are many people inside Peru who would like to believe that Fujimori has returned to the political scene and that he will be able to run in 2011. But only time will tell how these events will shape Peru’s future.

Notes:

  1. Kimura, Rei. Alberto Fujimori of Peru: The President who dared to dream.
  2. Ibid.
  3. Ibid.
  4. Aspen, Rino. Fujimori: Milagro Peruano, Tigre Pacificador.
  5. Bowen, Sally. Expediente Fujimori.
  6. Bowen – Ibid.
  7. Aspen, Rino. Fujimori: Milagro Peruano, Tigre Pacificador.
  8. Bowen – Ibid.
  9. Rino – Ibid.
  10. Bowen – Ibid.
  11. Chile Judge Rules against Extraditing Fujimori. The Santiago Times. July 18, 2007.
  12. Peru’s ex-president sent home to face charges.  September 22, 2007. USA Today.
  13. Grupo de opinión pública de la Universidad de Lima.

Fujimori: the other side of the story (part 2)

Klein/Mack Resolution to combat terrorism in Latin America passes Foreign Affairs Committee

U.S. Reps. Ron Klein (FL-22) and Connie Mack (FL-14) praised Committee passage of their resolution calling on the U.S. government to work with countries in the Western Hemisphere to combat terrorism and Hezbollah’s growing influence in Latin America.  H.Res. 435 passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously this morning and now awaits a vote in the full House of Representatives.

Fujimori: The Other Side of the Story – Part II

The Americas report of October 16th, 2007 focused on Alberto Fujimori’s extradition from Chile. As stated he is now in jail in Peru facing seven charges that range from claims of having committed crimes against humanity to corruption. We also provided background information of what Peru experienced prior to Fujimori taking office and some of his accomplishments during the time of his presidency. Today’s story focuses on the implications of Fujimori’s presence in Peru for the Garcia regime and for Ollanta Humala, the Chavez backed candidate for president in the Peruvian elections of 2011.

NEWS:

  • Bolivians foil Morales.
  • Thousands march against Chavez reforms. Chavez’s secret services suspected of trying to spy on Zapatero. PDVSA to Enlarge its Workforce. IAPA denounces "serious outrage" against press freedom in Venezuela.
  • Russia Boosts Links in Argentina.
  • US the Target of Muslim Terrorist Organization Operating in Lima, Peru. Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro Continue to Aid Peru’s needy. Trade between Peru & Venezuela Amounts to U.S. $500 Million.
  • Brazil Proposes FTA with India And South Africa.
  • Costa Rican President Makes First China Visit since Cutting Taiwan Ties.
  • Ecuador rejoins OPEC.
  • Argentine first lady is clear favorite in presidential race.
  • Colombian President Kicks off Election Crusade. Colombia candidates murdered by FARC.
  • "The Iranian House of Latin America" visits Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
  • Bush’s drug war funding plan draws fire in U.S., Mexico.

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

View the Klein/Mack Resolution on combatting terrorism in Latin America (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org.  If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.