Tag Archives: Menges Hemispheric Security Project

Fujimori: the other side of the story (part 1)

The latest news about former Peruvian President, Alberto Fujimori is that he has been extradited from Chile to face seven charges in Perú. The charges range from claims of having committed crimes against humanity to corruption. The Peruvian mainstream media as well as several leftist NGO’s and many self-proclaimed "intellectuals," have gone to great lengths to portray him as a corrupt criminal, a traitor, a fugitive and a murderer. But this is not what all Peruvians think of him. There is another side of Fujimori that his enemies don’t want you to know. What Peru looked like before he became President and what he achieved during his time in office.

NEWS:

  • Argentina: Cristina Kirchner leads in opinion polls.
  • Peru’s People Disapprove of Ollanta Humala – Alejandro Toledo Political Partnership.
  • Former Bolivian ruler warns against Chávez’s hegemonic plan.
  • IMPORTANT: Chávez: Venezuela and Cuba, the same government. Threatens Bolivian opposition with arms. Chavez warns of a US plan against Morales and threatens the "Oligarchy." Lukashenko: Belarus in talks to sell weapons to Venezuela.
  • Bush: New Free Trade Deals Will Strengthen U.S. Economy, Create Jobs.
  • Correa announced Ecuador returns to OPEC next month.
  • Uribe, Chávez and Correa open gas pipeline. Colombia’s Uribe: Will Join "Banco Del Sur."
  • Lula Admits Running for a Third Term as Brazil’s President in 2014.

View the full version of the Americas Reports (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Chavez comes to the aid of Lukashenko

The human rights violations of the current Belarusian regime are notorious. There are serious concerns about people disappearing, summary executions, arbitrary arrests and detentions without trials. Religious and political activities are strictly controlled, and there is no freedom of the press. The use of Neo-Nazi thugs to intimidate opposition supporters and Union activists is common. Poles, Jews and other minority groups are often harassed. Even ordinary people are fearful of the secret police. In 1995, current Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko praised Adolph Hitler in a Russian NTV interview, igniting widespread international indignation.

In response, both the U.S. and the European Union have imposed political and economic sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime.  However, Belarus has been able to overcome some of these economic difficulties due to its key location as a transit route for the raw material transported between Russia and other former Soviet Republics to Western Europe, and to large Russian subsidies. Currently, the Belarusian economy is characterized by an over-concentration on high-tech military production.

[More]However, the relationship between Moscow and Minsk deteriorated in 2006 when the Russian State-owned gas company, Gazprom, decided to increase the oil price to Belarus. This turned into a crisis last January when Belarus started to siphon the oil off the pipes and Gazprom then cut the oil from pumping. It was at that point Europe questioned whether Russia could be relied on as a safe supplier of oil.

Although Moscow and Minsk eventually reached an agreement, alleged violations led Gazprom to announce a cut in the supply of gas to Belarus due to a debt of over 450 million dollars, leading to a new crisis that could strangle the Belarusian economy. However, the Belarusian dictator’s headache is gone. Another dictator, the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, has come to the rescue and paid the Belarusian debt to Gazprom.  In addition, Chavez plans to give the Belarusian state oil firm concessions to exploit oil fields and sell the petroleum to the United States. The Belarusian government expects to earn enough profits so that they will eventually be able to develop their own refineries.

 

What is the explanation for Chavez’s generosity? After congratulating the Belarusian dictator for choking off opposition protests, Chavez labeled his partnership with Lukashenko as being strategic. Chavez perceives the alliance to be strategic because of the Belarusian over-capacity of military production. As a matter of fact, Venezuelan authorities have announced the acquisition of a Belarusian missile-shield system, and although President Bush has said that he does not consider Chavez a threat, the fact is that Chavez is actively working to create a world coalition against the United States.

Well-advised by the Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, an uncultured person endowed with unrealistic dreams of glory, social hate and an inferiority complex, he has undertaken the enormous task of destroying capitalism and creating a new world order based on the socialism of the twenty first century, which is a fuzzily defined version of twentieth century communism. In undertaking that task, Chavez has created strong links with Cuba, Iran and Syria, flirted with North Korea, and extended his friendship with Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Khadafy in Libya, as well as the Russian and Chinese governments. In Latin America, he financially helped not only Evo Morales in Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and Rafael Correa in Ecuador to win their elections, but also anti-democratic groups in Mexico, Central America, Peru and Argentina. It is well-known that he has strong links with the Colombian terrorist guerrilla group known as the FARC. Now, Chavez has extended his network to include a new partnership with the Belarusian dictator, Lukashenko. As a matter of fact, using a military argot, both dictators have recently announced a joint front against the U.S., which they identify as the leading enemy to defeat in their crusade against market economies and representative democracies.

Yet, how does Chavez plan to achieve this world revolution? Using his country’s oil money and an oil price over seventy dollars per barrel, the first step is to build strong support within Latin America. For this purpose, he is planning to create the greatest army in the region as well as establishing his own free trade block called ALBA.  Chavez is using his country’s oil wealth to finance anti-democratic groups in other Latin American countries by supporting leftist candidates who share his views and will help to further his agenda. Examples of this would be his continued financial support of Ollanta Humala in Peru and his provision of sanctuary to the FARC inside Venezuela.  In addition, Chavez has deepened his links with Russia and China, countries that are now providing the tropical dictator with the fighter aircraft and other equipment he needs to bolster his military.

At the same time, Chavez tries to build world alliances with countries that share his antipathy towards the United States. That explains his friendship with Ahmadinejad. Even though Iran is viewed as a rogue state by many in the international community, Chavez has promised that Venezuela will come to their defense if need be. That is why the acquisition of a Belarusian anti-aircraft missile system of Russian technology plays the strategic role he claims. Besides intimidating neighbor countries, that system intends to dissuade any potential U.S. military action against Venezuela.

On the economic side, Chavez is expropriating American oil companies and giving those concessions to Belarusian firms , with the purpose of making the U.S. energy supply dependent on its archenemies; Chavez and Lukashenko.  In addition, if we take seriously the rumors that Venezuela is supplying uranium for the Iranian nuclear project, Chavez’ dreams of glory could pose a real threat to the western hemisphere.

Jose Noguera obtained a Ph.D. degree from State University of New York at Buffalo. He currently teaches and conducts research on macroeconomics, political economy and development with the rank of Associate Professor at the Whittemore School of the University of New Hampshire. He has also been appointed at Michigan State University, CERGE-EI (Prague, Czech Republic), University of Warsaw, Central University of Venezuela and Mohila Academy University of Kiev.

Chavez comes to the aid of Lukashenko

Venezuelan President Chavez and Belarusian dictator Lukashenko have become strategic partners, recently announcing a joint front against the U.S., which they identify as the leading enemy to defeat in their crusade against market economies and representative democracies. An analysis of why this partnership could represent a real threat to the entire western hemisphere.

NEWS:

  • Free-trade deals critical, Rice says.
  • Costa Rica approves CAFTA. "Yes" victory in Costa Rica viewed as defeat for Chávez.
  • Peru: Keiko Fujimori says her father is treated like a convicted criminal. Peru ‘s terror group "Shining Path" Gaining Ground. Southern Perú Cooper Corporation Workers End 8-day Strike.
  • Argentina: Cristina Kirchner rejects "neo-liberal" economics. Argentina first lady defends official inflation data.
  • Ecuador: Correa demands 99% of profits from oil companies. Ecuador Correa Overhauling Cabinet to encourage "People’s Revolution."
  • IMPORTANT: Venezuela walks the path towards socialism. Venezuela ‘s Chavez announces plans for ‘collective property.’ Chávez swore in electoral taskforce for referendum for new Constitution. Venezuela: Chavez imposes crazy and strict "moral code." European Union backs Chávez-FARC talks. IAPA charges the Venezuelan government with boycott of meeting. Colombia-Venezuela to Open Pipeline. IAB demands restitution of signal to RCTV.
  • Uribe: no answer to Chávez’s request to take a messenger to the FARC.
  • Brazil Hosts Bank of South Meeting.
  • Aide to Guatemalan Presidential Candidate Shot Dead.

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Latin American leaders at the UN

During Evo Morales’ and Daniel Ortega’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly, we witnessed and confirmed something that we at "The America’s Report" denounced a long time ago: the expansion of the alliance between Chávez and his supporters in Latin America with the Islamic Republic of Iran. An overview.

NEWS:

  • Value of the U.S. Dollar has reached an all time low in Peru.
  • US: success in cutting flow of cocaine from Mexico.
  • Brazil ‘s Real Falls on Speculation Central Bank May Limit Rally.
  • Guatemala : Pérez Molina Could Win Run-Off.
  • CAFTA Ratification Race Tight in Costa Rica.
  • Chile : Bachelet’s approval rating falls.
  • Pentagon Chief on Latin America Security Mission. US Defense Secretary: Chávez is a threat for Venezuela. Venezuela Offers Collaboration to Peruvian Firms.
  • Chavez Threatens to imprison university and school Principals. Venezuela to House Bank of the South.
  • Argentina : Cristina Kirchner accused of malfeasance of public funds. Argentina: Sempra Energy gets $172M settlement.
  • Colombia : FARC for New Government.
  • Bolivia : Paranoid Morales suggests move U.N. Headquarters from US.  

Editor’s note: "Ecuador’s National Assembly: Correa set to Follow Chávez’s Path"

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org.  If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Latin American leaders at the UN

 

This past week we witnessed and confirmed something that we at "The America’s Report" denounced a long time ago: the expansion of the alliance between Chávez and his supporters in Latin America with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Whether in the past it was clear that the Bolivian president, Evo Morales, was following the Chavista blueprint in domestic politics by initiating a constitutional assembly and by promoting a revolutionary socialist regime, it was not at all clear as to what kind of foreign policy he would pursue. By the same token, Nicaraguan President, Daniel Ortega, who ran in the elections stating that he is "a changed man", was expected to follow a rather pragmatist foreign policy. This week these two leaders of small and impoverished nations clearly sided with Chávez’s foreign policy by openly supporting Iran and by making statements of hostility against US world leadership.

Indeed, during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, President Morales criticized the concept of globalization as well as what he calls a "US policy of discrimination against indigenous rights in Latin America". Morales criticized US "policies of military and economic intervention" referring to the US intervention in the region in the fifties, sixties and seventies and in reference to the "Washington Consensus" that promoted neo-liberal policies in Latin America in the 1990’s. Literally following Chavez’ clichés pretty much like a parrot, Morales blasted the development of ethanol in Latin America promoted by the US and Brazil because; "it steals from the land food products to make automobiles run". Curiously enough, this statement reflects word-by-word Chavez’ emotional reaction to the US-Brazilian agreement last March for cooperation in the development of ethanol.   Last year Morales also nationalized the production of natural gas in Bolivia one day after a meeting he held with Hugo Chávez. All of the above confirms Morales’ undignified status as a "Chavez stooge".

Of course, the Morales performance did not end in mere rhetoric. A few days later in La Paz he hosted the embattled Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Together they signed an alliance of cooperation that had, on the one hand a symbolic component and on the other hand a very real one. Morales backed Ahmadinejad’s nuclear program joining Venezuela, Libya, and Cuba and moved to establish diplomatic relations with Teheran. This makes Bolivia into a de-facto international ally of Iran, joining countries considered to be rogue states. As such Bolivia runs the risk of isolation.

Bolivia and Iran signed an agreement on energy and industrial cooperation, which involved funding of $1.1 billion. According to this agreement both countries will cooperate in the areas of energy exploitation and exploration and in joint ventures involving petrochemical and hydroelectric development as well as hydrocarbons, mining, agriculture, infrastructure, science and technology.

The leader of Bolivia’s opposition, Jorge Quiroga, rightly criticized Morales stating that the Bolivian leader is following Chávez dictates. There is no question that the symbolic value of this alliance is more important because most likely Morales will become an instrument not only in the hands of Chávez but also in the hands of Ahmadinejad who is struggling to develop his nuclear program and to break his increasing international isolation.

The question is: what benefits Bolivia can extract from a technological cooperation with Iran? According to experts living and working in Iran, the state of technology and technological innovation in Teheran is precarious as it depends on international relations that are currently much deteriorated. Moreover, brain power has emigrated from the Middle Eastern country and state intervention in all areas has undermined an effective development of civilian technologies. This does not mean that Iran will not be able to complete a nuclear program, but civilian technologies including those where Bolivia seeks assistance are highly undeveloped except perhaps in the area of mining. Iran is definitely a semi-developed country (it was defined as such by the UN) despite the noise caused by its nuclear program. Most of its GDP is coming from petroleum, which constitutes 80% of its exports and almost half of its population is employed in the service sector.   Further sanctions against Iran are likely to worsen this situation.

Yet, according to some reports, Ahamdinejad is believed to be interested in mining because he is seeking Bolivian uranium to continue developing his nuclear program. This can place Bolivia in a very dangerous situation that this tiny and disadvantaged nation that is still struggling to get access to the sea may not be able to afford in the long run.  

In other words, Bolivia needs to engage in good relations with as many countries as possible and Morales’ actions are not helping this endeavor.  Morales’ goal of improving the situation of indigenous people in his country might be hard to achieve.  Moreover, his current actions will not only lead to losing status in the United States but also in the developed world, particularly Europe which is siding more and more with Washington, as is demonstrated in the new pro-American foreign policies of French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. International concern with terrorism does not make things any better for Bolivia.  Indeed, Morales’ alliance with Chávez and Ahmadinejad generates great concern in the US and among Latin American democracies but Bolivia will be the first to pay the price.

Nicaraguan President, Daniel Ortega, used the stage in the UN General Assembly to launch an attack against "imperialist global capitalism". He also called the US "the worst tyranny in the world". Ortega went a step further, blaming natural disasters and hurricanes like Hurricane Felix that recently devastated Nicaragua, as the result of "aggression against mother nature carried by the greediness of imperial capitalism". He stated that regardless of who is the President of the United States (be it Democrat or Republican) he/she would always be mere "instruments of the empire". "Empires, he added have a "short life in history" and sooner or later they will collapse." The US is more oppressive and violent today than ever, Ortega pointed out. Then he proceeded to reinforce a third world discourse by pointing out that the world is dominated by a minority of dictators that try to impose an economic order, subjugate African and indigenous peoples and expropriate land that "does not belong to them". Ortega blasted European immigrants to America for taking away property from the natives as well as for imposing their own foreign culture. This is why the West is the worst dictatorship on earth. Then, he moved to defend Iran’s nuclear program, which Ortega not only supports on the grounds of "being used for peaceful purposes" but also stated that he sees nothing wrong even if Iran wants to have a nuclear program for military purposes. Ortega went on to ask "What is the right of the only country that launched an atomic bomb on the innocent populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to demand from another country to abstain from developing nuclear technology?"

These words put Ortega not only at odds with the interests of his own nation but also portrayed him as being as unreliable as he was in the past. The man who declared during the elections that he is not the same that he was 20 years ago and who was defeated in three prior democratic elections has come back as a radical associated with Chávez and Ahmadinejad. Hurricane "Felix" showed how much the country needs international help and neither Chávez nor Ahmadinejad can help Nicaragua face this difficult situation. Such an impoverished country is now associating with two isolated countries whose promise of financial or other type of aid may not have a long-term effect. Indeed, the Nicaraguan daily "El Nuevo Diario" conducted a poll via Internet asking people if they agreed or not with Ortega’s speech. The poll indicated that 78% of the population opposed it. By the same token, 50 out of 92 members of Nicaragua’s National Assembly rejected it as well. This body also blasted Ortega for not raising awareness of those affected by "Hurricane Felix" and instead, promoting nuclear proliferation. The statement by the representatives of the national assembly also states (contrary to Daniel Ortega) that Nicaragua is interested in good relations with all the countries in the world and that they are grateful to those countries that have provided assistance.

Of course the declaration by the national assembly (which was blocked by the Sandinista legislators) speaks volumes for the value of these Latin American democracies. Evo Morales also confronts domestic criticism as his projects for constitutional reform continue to stagnate and raise animosity. As Morales was flirting with Ahmadinejad and being politically nursed by his fatherly mentor, Hugo Chávez, workers and indigenous representatives asked to dissolve the Bolivian constituent assembly accusing Morales’ party, MAS, of promoting violence and unnecessary dissent among Bolivians. These new "petty dictators" in Nicaragua and Bolivia reflect Chávez’ views but by no means the people’s will. This is why these two leaders along with the Venezuelan President and an embattled Rafael Correa in Ecuador, who this Sunday will see a vote on the constitutional assembly, are trying to shut down the voice of the people.   

The episodes of last week should reaffirm the principle, which the US and most Latin American countries have almost unanimously subscribed to in the last two decades:  it is only democracy that will counterbalance the power of fraudulent, authoritarian dictators. This is why the Organization of American States (OAS) with the help of the United States must make sure that democracy is not suppressed. Otherwise, it is an open gate for vicious elements such as Chávez and Ahmadinejad.

The OAS has done a very poor job in denouncing Chávez’ excesses and in protecting and monitoring democracy. On the other hand, the OAS has been very skilful in remaining attached to the principle of "not rocking the boat". They will pay a high price for this negligence.   As for the US, this is the time to become more active, leave the comfortable desks of Washington, DC and get to know and work with these heroic opposition forces operating in each of these countries and try to understand the realities of each country further.

 

Free trade: An antidote to Chavez

As Congress debates the merits of ratifying free-trade agreements with three Latin American countries, many arguments have been advanced from both sides. The politically charged climate on Capitol Hill obscures the underlying rationales favoring the treaties—and, broadly, free trade.

Agreements have been negotiated with Colombia, Panama, and Peru, each geopolitically and commercially important to the United States.

  • Colombia is our closest friend in Latin America. Washington has worked to strengthen U.S.-Colombian ties and to assist Bogotá in eradicating its narcotics production and stabilizing its democracy. Venezuela’s autocratic socialist President Hugo Chávez presents an enormous external challenge.
  • Panama, created by a U.S.-Colombian treaty in 1903 as an independent entity to construct a Pacific-Atlantic canal, enjoys significant growth and is planning a major expansion of the critical waterway. China sought to become a major factor in the country before the United States ceded control of the canal to Panama in 1999. Hong Kong’s Hutchison-Whampoa group has since operated the canal, so crucial to world trade. 
  • Perú is one of three major centers of cocaine production in South America, with Bolivia and Colombia. President Alan García, elected in 2006, has committed his second term to free-market, democratic policies, in sharp contrast to his 1985–1990 first presidential term, which was characterized by a radical socialist agenda. García has also pledged to cooperate with Washington to replace cocaine production with economically viable, legal agricultural activities.

Each of these nations plays a key role in Latin America, for the region as a whole and for the United States.

In The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith considered free trade a great boon to the participating nations’ economies, workers and consumers. Charles Rangel (D-NY), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, frequently opines that free trade is especially beneficial to unemployed workers in developing countries. Both assessments are correct, as we have witnessed in virtually every free-trade agreement (FTA) enacted by recent administrations.

Most recently, the U.S.-Uruguay FTA changed Montevideo’s political orientation from sympathy towards Hugo Chávez’s populist, socialist Bolivarian Revolution to solid friendship with the United States, re-committed to the market economy. The Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) with four Central American nations and the Dominican Republic, also concluded during the current Bush Administration, has stabilized their economic and political climates.

Perhaps most important, the NAFTA agreement among the United States, Canada and Mexico, enacted during the Clinton Administration, has seen significant stabilization of all three signatory countries’ economies and of Mexico’s unpredictable political situation.

Two observations illustrate NAFTA’s enormous positive impact. During the twelve years the agreement has been in force, the U.S. economy has added thirty million jobs and unemployment has steadily declined to the current five percent level—despite AFL-CIO fears to the contrary. While this did not happen solely because of the trilateral accord, economists generally agree that NAFTA has been a significant contributor.

Several Mexican analysts credit domestic economic improvements created by NAFTA with the victory of Felipe Calderón in last year’s presidential election. Calderón won despite being a member of the same political party as the disappointing outgoing president, Vicente Fox, defeating ultra-leftist Andrés López Obrador by less than 234,000 out of 41.6 million votes cast, a razor-thin margin of 0.56 percent.

President Calderón has further opened Mexico’s economy, and is aggressively fighting endemic corruption by replacing thousands of corrupt police and sacking hundreds of conniving government officials. Calderón is also helping the United States’ illegal immigration dilemma by deploying 20,000 army regulars to the border area. These troops are fighting the extremely powerful narcotics organizations that refine and ship 90 percent of the cocaine that enters the United States.

Uruguay and Mexico exemplify a critical benefit of free-trade agreements, well-understood by America’s enemies: Fair and balanced economic relations set the stage for close relations at all levels.

Opposition in Bogotá to the pending U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement comes virtually exclusively from the Left, particularly from those in open or covert alliance with Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez.  Opposition to what Colombians call the TLC (for tratado de libre comercio, free-trade agreement) is based solely on critics’ not wanting Colombia to have close economic, military, political or cultural relations with the United States.

Chávez’s allies in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua show no interest in being part of what Chávez refers to as the Bush "empire." They have been co-opted into close political—and anti-American—relations by the checkbook diplomacy of Venezuela’s president. (In just the last two years, Venezuela has loaned Argentina’s tottering government at least $6 billion.)

Two of the three pending FTA’s are with Colombia and Peru, major cocaine-producing countries. The agreements, along with existing governmental programs, will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, a large majority of which will allow farmers who cultivate coca to desist from doing so. General Freddy Padilla de Leon, commandant of Colombia’s armed forces, observes:

Growing cocaine allows the farmer to buy his family rice, meat and other necessities. But our farmers don’t want that. To work cleanly  and legally gives a man peace; to work illegally puts the [communist narco-trafficking guerrilla movement] FARC in control of his life.

We must fight the narcotics scourge at every level, but especially the agricultural sector. With solid economic growth, small farmers can enter the legal economy, which will decimate the cocaine crop and sharply cut the FARC’s income options.

Plan Colombia, instituted by the Clinton Administration, has for eight years trained and upgraded Colombian military and police forces, established job training programs for demobilized guerrillas and paramilitaries, and trained local government officials in effective community administration.

The U.S.-Colombia FTA, coupled with the extension of Plan Colombia, can deal a lethal blow to the Colombian drug trade and strengthen democratic forces prior to critical 2010 presidential elections.

Hugo Chávez is reportedly plotting with Colombia’s far left Polo Democrático Party to elect a radical socialist successor to President Álvaro Uribe, who was resoundingly re-elected in 2006. They plan to focus on some two million Colombians living in Venezuela—most of them illegally—offering permanent resident status, jobs and stipends in return for voting the Chávez-anointed presidential ticket. This, and Chávez’s commitment of five or ten billion dollars or more behind the chosen candidate, threatens to halt Colombia’s steady progress under Uribe’s leadership.

Colombian-American Manuel Rocha , a retired U.S. ambassador whose career focused on Latin America, including tours in Havana, Buenos Aires and La Paz, Bolivia, sees a continuation of Washington’s:

Self-punishing neglect of the region if Plan Colombia is not renewed and the FTA with Colombia not ratified. It will do far more than undermine our closest friend and the most entrenched democracy in Latin America. It will tell those who wish to be friends and allies of the United States they cannot rely on us, and open the door for more lethal mischief by Hugo Chávez. In so doing, we set the stage for a revolutionary hotbed south of the Rio Grande, and face the loss of Latin America to the free world for a generation.

On the other hand, informed Latin American and U.S. observers agree that successful implementation of free-trade agreements with Colombia and Peru, together with ongoing progress in Mexico, can substantially curtail the cocaine industry in Latin America and simultaneously strongly challenge Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution.

In addition to everything else, as political analyst and commentator Michael Barone recently observed, passage of all four pending free-trade pacts will provide 125 million potential customers for U.S. manufactured products.

Those who urge that a global World Trade Organization agreement is preferable to a series of bilateral and multilateral pacts ignore the WTO’s very limited progress towards creating global free trade. When the current expansion of free-trade accords has covered an overwhelming percentage of world trade, it may be possible for the WTO to fix the system, so no nation has preferential bias with one or another trading partner over others countries.

Indeed, as Congress demurs on the four critical agreements, a host of progressive-minded governments continue pursuing free trade with nations important to their economic and overall geopolitical interests.  The creation and steady expansion of the free trade European Union of 27 countries is a fundamental reason for the region’s return to at least limited growth.   Japan has negotiated an agreement with Indonesia canceling duties on 90 percent of products the countries trade, and is negotiating similar pacts with India and ASEAN.   The 10 country Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is progressively converting the four decade old mutual defense organization, into a free trade bloc by 2015.

Colombia is undertaking free trade negotiations with 32 countries: the European Union plus Canada, Iceland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.   Mercosur , the world’s fourth largest trading block with a 250 million population and $1.1 trillion in cumulative GDP, has been invigorated by Venezuela’s entry in 2006.   Chavez is promoting free trade among the signatory nations – A rgentina , Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela – accounting for 75 percent of South American GDP, as he pushes for Bolivian and Nicaraguan membership.   Ecuador, currently an associate, is a likely additional full member.

Colombia ‘s lead negotiator, Hernando Gomez, president of the Private Competitive Council, observes that during the four year process:

Both sides made compromises, resulting in a fair, strong, positive agreement, which our legislatures must now approve. Neighboring Peru will surely be approved in Washington first. If they have, say, a 20 vote margin in the House of Representatives, Colombia’s chances are good, but if it is very close….This is why it is so important for us to move forward with other FTA’s. When Congress realizes we are going to be importing wheat, soybeans and barley at favorable prices from Canada, they may see the value of taking action.  

After a one and a half hour meeting, a visitor wonders why the articulate, well-informed Gomez is not involved in Colombia’s Washington lobbying effort.   Knowledgeable advocates like General Freddy Padilla and Hernando Gomez could well make the difference.     

There can be no doubt that taken together with strengthening bonds of friendship among like-minded governments in an increasingly tense world, passage of the pending FTA’s is clearly a deal Congress should not refuse.

John R. Thomson is a businessman and journalist who writes frequently on geopolitical issues. He served as senior trade development representative in the Africa, Near East, South Asia (ANESA) region during the Reagan Administration. Mr. Thomson welcomes comments at thomson.john.r@gmail.com.

Free Trade: an antidote to Chavez

Agreements have been negotiated between the United States and Colombia, Panama, and Peru, each geopolitically and commercially important to this country. But as Congress demurs on the critical agreements, a host of progressive-minded governments continue pursuing free trade with nations important to their economies. Why the pending FTA’s is clearly a deal the US Congress should not refuse.

Articulo: "El Libre Comercio: antídoto contra Chávez"

Tratados de libre comercio se han venido negociando con Colombia, Panamá y Perú, países geológica y comercialmente importantes para Estados Unidos. Pero Mientras el Congreso sigue sin decidirse si ratificará o no los tratados, un grupo de gobiernos con mentalidad progresista continúan firmando convenios de libre comercio con países importantes para sus economías. Razones por las cuales la ratificación de los TLC es claramente una oportunidad que el Congreso no debe dejar pasar.  

NEWS:

  • Condoleezza Rice supports Free Trade with Latin America.
  • Peru : Former President Alberto Fujimori extradited from Chile and suffering harsh conditions in a local prison. Supporters welcome their leader. Terrorist group MRTA threatens the Peruvian government through a "Chavista" website.
  • Venezuela : to build 400 houses in Pisco and Chincha after earthquake in Peru. Iranian President visits Venezuela and Bolivia this week. Letter exchange between FARC leader and Chavez. Chavez Tells Private Hospitals to Lower Costs or Face Nationalization.
  • Israel sends hurricane aid to Nicaragua. ALBA members to meet in Managua.
  • Argentine favorite treats presidential campaign more like a coronation.
  • Social conflicts in Bolivia. Bolivia to sign agreements with Iran.  
  • Ecuador : Correa to win assembly elections.

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For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.

Iraqi-American smuggling ring in Peru

This past July, a criminal ring attempting to smuggle Iraqis into the United States was discovered in Peru. The drama began on July 21st when three Iraqi siblings, two men and one woman, arrived at Jorge Chávez International airport in Lima and bought three tickets to travel to Los Angeles, California. They were planning to board a LAN Chile flight carrying German passports. Their names: Nader Yusef-Adib, (aged 21), Nasim Yusef-Adib, (aged 23), and Lina Yusef-Adib (aged 33). [1] 

When they were passing through security, they presented boarding passes bound to Santiago, Chile instead. Apparently, what happened is that in the waiting room they switched their boarding passes to avoid the scrutiny that passengers go through when traveling to the U.S. Airport officials scanned the woman’s passport and discovered that it was fake. She requested to go to the restroom and that is when a female worker discovered Ms. Lina destroying the boarding passes and other documents and contacted the police.

Using a translator, they said they had arrived in Lima from Brazil where they had traveled after leaving Iraq two days prior. "The suspects said they wanted to go to the United States to work because the situation in Iraq is very difficult. We have requested the help of the Directorate Against Terrorism (Dircote), they are working on the case," were the statements of the Chief of the Directorate of Criminal Investigation. [2]

Peruvian officials contacted German authorities and found out that the passports had been stolen from three German nationals: Matthias Becker, Meike Barth and Diego Amson. Local authorities learned that another group of Iraqis had been en route to the airport. "The others were slowed by traffic on their way to the airport," Coronel Roberto Luján said. "When they arrived, they apparently saw what was happening and left." Peruvian police are checking for possible connections to international terrorism networks and the suspects are being charged for lying to immigration officials and using false documentation. US Intelligence officials were soon contacted and arrived in Lima to investigate the case. [3]

Not even a month after this incident, Peruvian intelligence units spent several days watching an individual by the name of Mr. Pati and others thought to be part of the smuggling ring. Early in the morning of July 17, 2007, police in Lima raided three luxurious apartments in the upper scale district of Miraflores. They found six Iraqis with fake Dutch passports. No weapons were found on the premises but authorities alerted the US embassy asking for help in the investigation. The names of the people involved are: Mushtaq Yhana (aged 25), Loay Elda (aged 29), Adelmika Homow (aged 61), Salema Kalzeak (aged 53) and the brothers Danik (aged 26) and Nail Mansour (aged 29). [4]

 

Col. Luján, the official in charge of the raid and the case, stated that the leader of the criminal ring that smuggles illegals into the United States is Iraqi citizen, Rafid Jaboo Pati (aged 40). According to Mr. Luján, Mr. Pati had the responsibility for the Iraqis who had arrived in Lima from Ecuador, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic with the intention of smuggling them into the United States. The suspects stayed in lavish locations while other members of the ring falsified the Dutch documentation in order for them to travel to Miami, New York, San Francisco, New Orleans and other US’ cities. [5] Rafid Jaboo Pati was captured in Miraflores, Lima with an Ecuadorian passport and identity card from the same country. Pati confessed that the other six Iraqis had arrived in Lima 25 days earlier. [6]

The seven people are currently being held by Peruvian immigration officials, Lujan added. Police also seized a laptop, a cell phone and other false documents, including an Ecuadorian driver’s license and fake Dutch, Ecuadorian and Iraqi passports from one of the apartments. "We’ve sent their fingerprints to Interpol headquarters in France to find out if they are wanted by the international police," said Col. Luján. He said the seven had been under police surveillance since they entered Peru illegally by land from Ecuador 25 days ago. [7]

"Peru has a growing problem," a U.S. official said. "It has become a center for people trying to enter the United States illegally." Peruvian police became suspicious when it was determined that none of the Iraqis spoke Dutch or German. For now they will be charged with falsifying documents. [8]

Mr. Luján has said that the three Iraqis caught in the airport and the seven others seized in Miraflores are part of the same group under the leadership of Rafid Jaboo Pati.   An 11th person was not in the apartment at the time of the raid and is at large, officials said. "The Iraqis refused to give the name of the missing individual," "We have been told by Interpol sources in Lima that fingerprints of one of the men carrying a Dutch passport have been sent to Baghdad and is thought to have links to al Qaeda," Col. Luján said, adding that he could not identify the man for security reasons. [9]

Lujan rejected a theory that the men could be Chaldean Christians, a group said to frequently attempt to enter the United States on claims of religious persecution in Iraq. "These people were not part of that group," he said. "Besides the brothers, they did not even know each other." One man was arrested while clutching a flag of unknown origin. [10]

One of the 10 Iraqis arrested in Peru was clutching this flag. A Peruvian investigator dismissed the idea that they were Chaldean Christians seeking asylum in the U.S. Source: The Washington Times.

Analysis

Telling Peruvian officials they were on their way to Chile and not the United States is what raised suspicion and led to their incarceration but there are many questions surrounding this bizarre incident. First, did the three that were caught in the airport buy tickets to both Chile and the United States which resulted in them having two different boarding passes? Secondly, this must have been a very well financed and orchestrated operation: where did they get the funding to travel to Brazil, then Peru and while there have cash for expenses? It is evident they had plenty of money to buy six tickets, three to Chile and three to the US. Then there are the added operating costs of having a contact and leader, Rafid Jaboo Pati, who made arrangements for their accommodations and prepared their false documents. Were they buying tickets to different destinations to obtain different boarding passes to mislead authorities and illegally enter the US? Maybe other Iraqis did this before successfully. Returning to the money issue, if they say they were en route to the US to find work because of the harsh conditions in their country of origin, where did they get the money to do all this?

Were the seven others caught in the luxurious apartments the ones that were to travel together with the three siblings and when they saw that something was wrong in the airport, decided to run away? Dutch and German citizens do not require visas to enter the United States, but if Peruvian authorities discovered the passports were fake, in the US they would have been surely caught. If those arrested were Iraqi Chaldean Christians who frequently try to enter the U.S., claiming they face persecution in Iraq and California is home to a sizable Chaldean community, why make false statements and destroy documentation at all? What were they trying to hide so desperately? They could have contacted the Chaldean community in the United States to get help.

Many Iraqis who try to get to the US have to find different routes to get to their destination. These individuals were caught in Peru but there must be other rings similar to this one operating in different countries. They may be trying to use countries that are U.S. friendly to avoid raising suspicions. Also, there is the issue of picking countries that are perceived as lax regarding security issues. It might be the case that some might be trying to find a better life, but that might not be true for everyone.

Every year, hundreds of thousands of people try to come to this country seeking better opportunities. Some go through the regular process and get rejected and some have better luck; some cross the Mexican or Canadian borders illegally; but this case is bizarre because of its complexity and for the availability of monetary resources at hand.

Peru handled this case in a very professional manor; identifying the problem, immediately beginning an investigation and seeking international cooperation to arrest the suspects. However, it still is not known what the true intentions of the Iraqis were other than their desire to enter the U.S. Hopefully, through the cooperation of the Peruvian authorities, INTERPOL and the U.S., we will learn whether they were asylum seekers or terrorists. Stay tuned.   


  1. Detienen a iraquíes con pasaportes falsos en Perú. El Universal, Venezuela. June 22, 2007
  2. Detienen a iraquíes que pretendían viajar a Los Ángeles desde Lima. El Comercio, Perú. June 22, 2007.  
  3. Ibid.
  4. Iraqis captured en route to U.S. The Washington Times. September 11, 2007.
  5. Descubren tráfico de iraquíes a EEUU. July 18, 2007. La Republica, Perú.
  6. Ibid.
  7. Ibid.
  8. Ibid.
  9. The Washington Times – Ibid.
  10. Ibid.

A dangerous dance in Colombia

The Colombian government has invited Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chavez to mediate the FARC conflict in the hope of achieving a "humanitarian accord;" the euphemism for swapping approximately 40 hostages in exchange for an estimated 350 mid-level convicted FARC representatives, mostly captured in violent clashes with the Colombian army. The mutual intentions of the two governments have not always been particularly benign. The diplomatic move coincides with ostensible snubbing of Uribe in the U.S. Congress combined with diplomatic pressure from a newly elected French President, Nicolas Sarkozy. 

The Democratic majority in the Congress, who follow their intuition when blocking free trade deals, have stalled the ratification of the signed free trade agreement with a government presiding over Colombia’s recovering, almost surging economy. It is fair to say that the Democrats deserve credit for pushing the necessary purge of Colombia’s forces, eliminating officers with ties to the right wing paramilitary, but the important human rights "score points" at home might come at a high cost, alienating the closest U.S. ally in the Andean region. 

Additional cuts in "Plan Colombia" will reflect in the army’s future capabilities and may shift the military advantages in favor of the FARC.  Since the United States is Colombia’s largest trading partner, the stalled ratification might hamper further increase in foreign investment, partially based on the expectations of better market access for Colombian goods.  The seduction of protectionism in the Congress is likely to damage a successful example of a market oriented economy which is heavily challenged by a reversion to "21st century socialism."  

In contrast, the Colombian government received support from Canada which has taken a more pragmatic stand on development and is moving towards a separate trade agreement with Colombia.  Canadian President, Steven Harper, completed a visit to Canada’s third largest South American export market, lauding Uribe’s measurable successes in improving security and recommending free trade as a tool for sustainable economic development. However, Canada will never be able to replace the United States market.  

The failure to reach a Free Trade Agreement has slightly lowered Uribe’s overwhelming popularity, since he has always pushed for the FTA against domestic resistance.  The feeling of humiliation emanating from Washington might have influenced the government to recalibrate its regional relations.  In this regard, Uribe has recently called on Hugo Chavez to mediate the FARC conflict, brokering a deal to swap prominent hostages like the former presidential candidate, Ingrid Betancourt.  Since the FARC insists on the creation of a demilitarized zone, prior to any negotiations, the government has picked up the Venezuelan offer to mediate the negotiations.

The FARC lost considerable influence over the last years after being pushed back deep into the jungle by determined and sometimes harsh military measures and is now in a weakened position.  The creation of a demilitarized zone has met with consistent objections from the Colombian government. In the past, the demilitarized zone provided fertile territory for violence for paramilitary and guerilla activity.  Some seven years ago, when the FARC took most of the current hostages and controlled an estimated 40 % of the country’s territory, there already was a demilitarized zone.  A good number of atrocities from left and right wing paramilitary forces took place in the power vacuum and allowed the recruitment of many fighters.  It helped create the largest number of Latin American internally displaced persons.  Cuts in "Plan Colombia" and the failure in Washington to ratify the FTA probably was an impetus in convincing the government to request help from a dangerous power broker.  

Colombian representatives have frequently accused Venezuela of harboring and supporting FARC terrorists. The Granda affair only seemed to confirm that Venezuela’s connections to the FARC exceed sheer toleration. Rodrigo Granda, a prominent FARC leader, was able to attend a conference in Venezuela, in December 2004, despite being a sought-after criminal in Colombia.  After being seized by Colombians on Venezuelan territory has now been released and has left for Cuba.   This is mainly due to massive French diplomatic pressure.  Sarkozy is now interested in liberating Ingrid Betancourt who holds French/Colombian dual citizenship.  Ms. Betancourt, the former Colombian presidential candidate was kidnapped by the FARC because she journeyed into their territory despite warnings from the Colombian authorities not to do so.

 

Uribe won his first term by advocating a hard-line strategy against the FARC, as opposed to the failed negotiations of his predecessor, Andres Pastrana.  If Colombia reenters talks now, it can do so from a position of strength, more so now than at any time before.  The negotiations are now supported by the majority of Colombians, within a climate of general "normalization."

Needless to say, Chavez immediately jumped on this opportunity to mediate between the two sides. What better stage is there for the leader of a Pan-Andean movement than to broker a deal in a neighboring state; at a time when some analysts already saw him past his zenith: the RCTV scandal has finally scarred his image among the human rights activists, mainly in Europe.  The Brazilian legislature shows reluctance to ratify Venezuela’s MERCOSUR membership and the announcement by Chavez to institutionalize his persona together with the "Bolivarian revolution" indefinitely, has been met with criticism even inside his own camp.  Besides, there is no better opportunity to loosen the close U.S. Colombian alliance than exploiting the current disappointment in Bogotá.  Chavez might have some leverage over the FARC and is almost more respected than is appropriate for a mediator between a regular government and a faction, widely recognized as a terrorist organization. "Commandante," Raúl Reyes, a senior FARC representative hailed Chavez’ initiative and called him a "leader of outstanding importance on the continent."  Reyes commands the "Southern Block" of the FARC operating in the jungle region along the Ecuadorian border.  During the same interview with the Mexican newspaper, "La Jornada," he admitted to knowing the Venezuelan president personally.

 

Using Chavez as the mediator might come with further diplomatic costs for Colombia, however: Chavez announced that his involvement might also be an opportunity to settle the pending border dispute over the potentially energy rich Gulf of Guajira.  It is hard to imagine, in this context, that Colombia would not be forced to make some concessions over the disputed areas.  

Chavez’s ties to the FARC might almost be too good; but he undoubtedly has some leverage over the guerillas and is a person they trust. An agreement to resume negotiations with the guerillas represents a 180 degree shift in Colombian policy but they might have their own calculus. If the talks fail, this could be blamed on Chavez, satisfying the general desire for negotiations without giving the blame to Uribe. A favorable deal would benefit the Colombians in substance, since any alleviation of this endemic conflict will benefit the whole country ending the domestic paralyzing situation. At least, the French demands for negotiations would be met. The move might also be a hint to the U.S. Congress, conveying the idea that Colombia is not invariably bound to the U.S. alliance in its foreign affairs nor that its allegiance can be taken for granted.  Better relations with Venezuela will also alleviate the antagonism of the majority of left leaning governments in the Andean region.

 

However, it is a risky move inviting a political rival into the most vulnerable Colombian sphere, as the ongoing conflict has been Colombia’s Achilles heel for decades. Chavez is not just antagonistic to prosperous market oriented capitalism and liberal democracy but towards everything that Uribe stands for, especially his strong alliance with the United States and his backing of Plan Colombia.  Chavez has been underestimated on many accounts and tends to be cleverer than competitors and opponents assumed.  It is clear to many observers that while Chavez’s short term goal is to elevate his image in the eyes of his countrymen, his overall aim is to strengthen the FARC and to weaken the Uribe government.  The mediation might deliver a two-edged result; getting a favorable hostage deal for the government – difficult to reject – but providing the FARC an urgently needed breathing space for rearmament in a demilitarized zone. After all, the Colombian move has been an official invitation to mingle in Colombian affairs and might bear more risks than are now perceived.  

A dangerous dance in Colombia

The Colombian government has invited Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chavez to mediate the FARC conflict in the hope of achieving a "humanitarian accord" to swap approximately 40 hostages in exchange for an estimated 350 mid-level convicted FARC representatives. The mutual intentions of the two governments have not always been particularly benign. The diplomatic move coincides with ostensible snubbing of Uribe in the U.S. Congress combined with diplomatic pressure from a newly elected French President. But Chavez’s might deliver a two-edged result for Colombia. Analysis and implications.

NEWS:

  • Bolivia and Iran Forge Diplomatic Links.
  • Guatemala: Electoral Runoff.
  • Peru: Trade Agreement with the U.S. closer.  Lima rejects opening of ALBA offices.  Poll: Alan Garcia’s Approval Rating increases in Peru, Ollanta Humala not as Popular.  Congressmen and Ministers want new and stronger NGO law.  Mining referendum: emotions running high in northern Peru, "Chavistas" involved.
  • Mexico Investigates Pemex blasts.  Claims that Chavez is behind it.
  • Panama:  Noriega Remains in U.S. Custody after Prison Term Ends.
  • Venezuela and Bolivia deals include iron joint venture. Chavez: Venezuela to launch defense satellite.
  • Bodies of FARC hostages recovered.  Chavez offer on FARC is rejected.
  • Ecuador’s Correa says Congress should be dissolved.  Correa threatens not to renew TV station license.
  • Brazil: Senate Leader Absolved Of Corruption Charges.
  • 14 candidates register for Argentina’s presidential vote.  Shell’s Argentine refinery to reopen Tuesday.
  • Colombia’s biggest drug lord caught.

View the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)

 

For any questions, comments, or those interested in receiving this report in the future or seeking to have their email removed from our list please contact Nicole M. Ferrand at our new e-mail address: mengesproject@centerforsecuritypolicy.org. If you have news stories that you think might be useful for future editions of this report please send them, with a link to the original website, to the same e-mail address. If you wish to contribute with an article, please send it to the same address, with your name and place of work or study.