Tag Archives: NATO

Russia ramps up rhetoric in wake of downed jet

Outraged by the downing of a Su-24 jet that appears to have violated Turkish airspace, Russian president Vladimir Putin is vehemently denouncing Turkey, highlighting its in helping the Islamic State smuggle oil and facilitating the passage of foreign fighters into Syrian territory controlled by IS.  At the same time, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ankara of a “planned provocation.”

Turkish president Erdogan is undeterred, insisting that the lethal response came after repeated violations of Turkish airspace and sovereignty by Russian aircraft.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the organization “stands in solidarity with Turkey” but made no further comment beyond that.  In a joint press conference with French president Francois Hollande, President Obama blamed Russia for the incident, saying that their flights near the Turkish border are an “ongoing problem with the Russian operations.”

Perhaps mindful of Russian adventurism in the Caucasus, Georgia, and Ukraine, countries and regions that share geographical proximity to Turkey, Erdogan decided to take aggresive action to halt Russia’s probing of Turkish air defenses.

In the short term, Russian bombing of Turkmen rebels operating close to the Assad stronghold and location of Russian airbase Latakia also called for a response by Erdogan, who has staked nearly all his foreign policy credentials on Assad’s ouster and invested heavily in backing Syrian rebels.  The fact that the Turkmen rebels, who are ethnic relatives of the Turks, publicly appealed for Erdogan’s help also appear to have played a major part in the decision to risk a confrontation with Russia.

Both Putin and Erdogan’s perceived and real reputations as strongmen not to be questioned or provoked are well-established.  Sharing similar governing styles and designs to revive the aura of long-lost empires, they are both adept at exploiting events for political advantage.  Putin is now faced with a decision on how to respond, yet he must proceed carefully with a NATO member, second largest customer of Russian gas, and major competitor in the Syrian proxy war.

NATO member Turkey raises the stakes, shoots down Russian jet

In what could mark a turning point in the Syrian civil war, a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet near the Syrian border this morning after what Turkey claimed was a violation of its airspace and its multiple warnings to the Russian aircrew were ignored.

Speaking before a scheduled meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah in Sochi, President Vladimir Putin was visibly angry, accusing Turkey of facilitating the Islamic State’s oil sales and calling the jet downing a “stab in the back committed by accomplices of terrorists.”

The Turkish Air Force released a radar screen capture showing the flight path of the twin-seat Su-24 as it strays over a narrow sliver of land in southern Turkey.  According to a statement from the Kremlin, Turkish airspace was never violated and the jet was shot down over Syria.

What is certain is that Turkey has repeatedly warned against any violations of its airspace; in March of last year it shot down a Syrian jet that it also claimed strayed into Turkish territory, and last week a drone believed to be Russian was also downed.

The area in question is mostly populated by the Syrian Turkmen ethnic group, which has been fighting against Bashar al-Assad and has received military assistance from the Turkish government.  Footage from Turkish TV shows Turkmen fighters surrounding a dead Russian pilot, while the fate of the other pilot remains unclear; unconfirmed reports state he is also dead.

Turkmen rebels are also claiming to have destroyed a Russian helicopter on a search and rescue mission for the pilots with US-made TOW missiles.  Apparently, the helicopter made an emergency landing and its crew had departed before the rebels fired upon it.

Regardless of the purported airspace violation, downing a Russian fighter jet is a strategic gamble that could have far-reaching consequences; this is the first time a Russian jet has been shot down by a NATO member since the 1950s.  Soon after the news was reported, Turkey called for an emergency NATO meeting, which Putin notes it did even before officially notifying the Kremlin.

Turkey has been heavily invested in the Syrian civil war since its beginning, backing rebels seeking to topple Bashar al-Assad.  President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned Turkey to reap the benefits of being a regional hegemon in the event that Assad is finally removed from power and replaced with a leader more to its liking.

While in the summer the jihadists supported by Turkey were making verifiable gains against the Syrian army and had Assad acknowledging his situation was dire, the Russian intervention last month halted those advances, frustrating Erdogan’s Syrian strategy.

Shooting down the Su-24 is likely a message to Putin: stop bombing Turkish ethnic brethren in Syria, and stay away from the Turkish border.  The Russian Air Force has also been reported to have been probing NATO air defenses in northern Europe. Unwilling to let Russia cross its red lines, Turkey took matters into its own hands.

Turkeys Shoot Down of Russian Jet a Sign of Growing Belligerence by Putin

Turkey shot down a Russia SU-24 jet earlier today after it reportedly violated Turkish airspace near the Syrian border.  The Russian jet was warned 10 times in five minutes before being shot down, according to the Turkish air force.   Both Russian pilots ejected from the plane before it crashed.  One pilot reportedly was captured; the other reportedly was killed.

Russian officials claim the jet did not violate Turkish airspace.  Turkey claims otherwise and released a map showing how the Russian jet overflew Turkish territory.

Tensions have been growing between Turkey and Russia over violations of Turkish airspace by Russian jets since Russia began conducting airstrikes in Syria on September 30.  Russian jets violated Turkish air space near the Syrian border several times over the last month.  A Russian fighter jet locked its targeting radar on Turkish jets during the weekend of October 3.  U.S officials warned Russia that these violations of Turkish airspace could lead to a military incident.

The Turkish government also is also angry over intensified Russian airstrikes against Turkmen villages areas close to the Turkish border in northwest Syria.  The Russian ambassador to Ankara was summoned to the Turkish foreign ministry last week to hear Turkey’s demand that Russia halt these airstrikes.  Russia also has been targeting Syrian rebels groups backed by the United States.

While Moscow previously said its jets may have inadvertently violated Turkish airspace, these incidents are consistent with a larger pattern of Russian jets challenging NATO and the U.S. military since 2014.  These include incidents in or near American, Swedish, Danish, Canadian, Estonian, Ukrainian and Lithuanian airspace, fly-overs of American and British warships in the Black Sea, and Russian submarine activity near Sweden.

Russia’s provocative air operations in Syria represent more than Russian President Putin’s reckless attempt to shore up the Assad regime.  They are part of his dangerous effort to reassert Russian global influence.  If this continues and includes more provocations against NATO members, it could lead to more military clashes.

Brussels, seat of NATO headquarters, held hostage by the Islamic State

After uncovering the Islamic State cell that planned and executed the Paris attacks, Belgian authorities have increased the manhunt for Salah Abdeslam, who is suspected of being one of the gunmen in Paris and whose brother blew himself up in a suicide operation there.  Brussels, the location of NATO and EU headquarters, is now a city under military lockdown.  Subways and schools remained closed on Monday, as the threat of a “Paris-style attack” keeps residents and police on edge.

Hiding in plain sight within the large Muslim community centered in the Molenbeek neighborhood, the IS cell that executed the Paris atrocity may have prepared for another wave targeting Brussels,  according to Belgian authorities.

In response, they have urged the closing of popular bars and clubs, while hotels locked their doors, as a large number of travelers cancelled their stays.

The military personnel and armored personnel carriers now patrolling the streets evoke images of a city under occupation, and although 16 arrests have been made in connection with the attacks, Abdeslam and his accomplices remain at large.

As previously noted, IS has increased its operational capabilities beyond the borders of its self-declared caliphate and affiliated “provinces.”  Whereas, historically terrorist organizations executed operations in order to draw media attention for the announcement of clear political objectives, IS transcends traditional western concepts of terrorism. Instead, it is a global jihadist organization, seeking to goad Western powers into an apocalyptic conflict.

In the 1980’s and 1990’s, organizations such as Hezbollah held hostages for years and carried out operations at the behest of Iran, a clear case of state-sponsored terrorism.  Nowadays, a self-declared religious state, with no international recognition and a self-sufficient financial structure, is able to hold entire cities hostage; cities that serve as headquarters for international military and political bodies are now at the mercy of jihadists who reject the Western concept of the nation-state.

In a propaganda masterstroke, the Islamic State has succeeded in achieving one of its key goals: “striking fear in the heart of the enemy.”

Turkey funds Syrian rebels, German intel on migrants, Somali attack, Pro-Russian Ukraine rebels, US-trained Syrian rebels

TIO Headlines 9-22-15 

Turkey increases funding for Al Qaeda-Linked rebels

After its leadership was eliminated in an Islamic State bombing attack a little over a year ago, Syrian rebel group Ahrar al-Sham is back in a major way.  Replacing its command structure and appointing a new emir, it has fought and gained control of territory in Syria, even controlling the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey.

Ahrar Al Sham fights closely with Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra, and was co-founded and led by Al Qaeda leader and Zawahiri associate Khalid Al-Suri before his death in 2014.

NATO ally Turkey has increased its commitment to the jihadist group, appointing it as its negotiator in the event of ceasefire talks, which have already collapsed twice.

German intelligence adds twist to migrant crisis

German police raided eight properties in Berlin, acting on information that those residing there were providing assistance to jihadists in Syria.  This development follows the statement by Germany’s domestic intelligence service the BfV (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) that up to 700 Germans have left and joined the Islamic State. BfV also believes that there is increased potential that “radicals” could target “unaccompanied young refugees” for indoctrination and recruitment.  Germany has a sizable Salafi community, and German IS members have already threatened future attacks.

Al-Shabaab suspected of car bombing near Somali presidential palace

Following the conclusion of a conference debate on the Somali presidential election next year, a suicide car bomb exploded outside the gates of the presidential compound, resulting in six casualties, including a Turkish national.  While no group has claimed responsibility, al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab is widely suspected, as Al-Shabaab has orchestrated a series of car bombings against political figures, foreign diplomats and popular hotels in recent months. There is speculation that the attack may have been targeting a UN convoy that was seen leaving the palace, as well as presidential guards posted nearby.

NATO Chief: Russia still arming Ukrainian separatists despite ceasefire

As the media has focused on Russia’s escalation of involvement in Syria, it appears that Russian President Vladmir Putin is taking advantage of the diversion to also increase support for Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.  In a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that “Russia continues to support the separatists, provide them with weapons, with different kinds of equipment, training, forces.”  For the moment, Russia is keeping a low profile and has not responded to the accusations, ahead of Putin’s address to the UN General Assembly next week.

US-trained Syrian rebels arrested, then released as allegations of betrayal surface

In the continuing debacle that are US efforts in Syria, it is now being reported that approximately 75 members of the US-trained “moderate” rebel force Division 30 were arrested by elements of a coalition of Syrian Islamist rebels known as the Shamiyya Front soon after entering Aleppo province from the Turkish border crossing.

Initial reports state that Shamiyya Front troops were confused as to Division 30’s identity and allegiance. Other reports say that the 70 rebels of Division 30 reportedly surrendered to Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra shortly after crossing the border, handing over equipment and weapons. Additionally, Division 30 Chief of Staff Col. Muhammad Daher has apparently resigned citing problems with recruitment and training efforts. Daher’s resignation may lend credence to reports of continued problems with the U.S.-backed force.

Twenty-One Members of IS Arrested in Turkey

On July 10, Turkish police arrested 21 people suspected of being members of the Islamic State (IS) in a major anti-terrorism operation. Three were foreigners, whose nationalities have not been released. Police also seized two hunting rifles, bullets, IS documents, electronics, and military uniforms. Arrest warrants had been issued for at least 30 people prior to the operation.

Several addresses in Istanbul, the Sanliurfa province near Syria, the Mersin province in the south, and the Kocaeli province east of Istanbul were raided. The Turkish suspects are believed to be helping IS recruit European fighters and helping them travel to Syria to join the group. The three foreigners were trying to go to Syria to fight for the group. All were taken to police headquarters in the provinces in which they were arrested.

The operation was conducted after a US delegation visited Turkey earlier this week. In discussions, Turkey promised to be more cooperative in the fight against IS. The delegation, headed by retired General John Allen, made steps toward reaching a deal with Turkey that would allow the US-led coalition forces to use the Incirlik military air base in the country’s southern Adana province to conduct airstrikes. In return, Turkey wants US help in establishing a safe zone in northern Syria near their border. The two countries have been negotiating over the details of these two points since last year.

Turkey, a member of NATO, has faced international criticism for not contributing to the fight against IS, and it has a number of reasons for not wanting to take part in the battle. It wants to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad removed from office; fighting IS and subsequently stabilizing the country goes against its political interests. In the past, it has said that it will only join the fight against IS if the US helps to set up the buffer zone in northern Syria, which the US has been reluctant to do. Additionally, the Turkish government and IS both hate the Kurds, who are an incredibly effective on-the-ground fighting force against IS. Seeing the Kurds fall at the hands of IS would be a political victory for Turkish President Erdogan.

In an interview last year, a former member of IS going by the pseudonym Sherko Omer, who initially travelled to Syria to join the Free Syrian Army’s fight against Assad but found himself forced into joining IS, explained Turkey’s role in aiding the group. He said that Turkey actually provided support by not doing anything to stop its illicit activities. According to him, the Turkish army was providing IS weapons and ammunition while allowing the militants to cross the border with Syria, and IS military commanders openly discussed their collaboration with Turkish officials.

In a separate interview, Salih Muslim, the co-chairman of Syria’s Kurdish Democratic Union Party, talked about many of the same things as Omer. He acknowledged that asserting the Turkish government directly aids IS may be an overstatement, but he explained that the government clearly turned a blind eye to the operations of Turkish NGOs that have helped foreign fighters travel to Syria. As evidence of Turkish complicity, he talked of the Kurds finding Turkish travel documents on the bodies of IS killed militants, suggesting that they were purposefully given the papers to allow them to easily cross the Syrian border.

Given Turkey’s history of helping IS both directly and indirectly, the July 10 arrests raises two questions: why now? and how serious is Turkey about maintaining this tough stance on IS?

In answer to the first question, the arrests appear to be Turkey’s attempt at demonstrating that it has chosen to stop letting IS operate freely within its borders. Given their timing immediately after the departure of the US delegation, the July 10 operation seems to be a gesture of goodwill, providing evidence that Turkey truly wants to be a part of the fight to defeat the group.

The second question is more difficult to answer due to the fact that Turkey has aided IS in the past. The US-led coalition, which wants to use Turkey as a staging site for airstrikes, must keep in mind the political reasons why Turkey did not originally work to take down IS. Turkey must be closely monitored to ensure that it keeps its word and continues to help fight the group moving forward.

Russian Spies Evicted From NATO, Nemtsov Report Released

NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg revealed in an interview with The Guardian that NATO is reestablishing Cold War-era hotlines to the Kremlin and the Russian general staff in order to reduce risks of military escalation in the case of an incident. This decision comes in the wake of increasing Russian air activity over the Baltic, Norwegian, and Black Seas, as well as last month’s decision by NATO to restrict non-NATO member state’s diplomatic delegations at NATO’s Brussels headquarters to no more than 30 people. Russia is the only non-NATO country that has more than 30 delegates present at NATO headquarters. NATO officials estimate that about half of Russia’s delegation, estimated to be around 37-90 people, are believed to be working for Russian intelligence services.

A key element in worsening relations between NATO and Russia is purported Russian support for separatist rebels in Ukraine. As of yesterday, friends and colleagues of murdered Russian dissident Boris Nemtsov released Nemtsov’s last work, an investigative report on the civil war in Ukraine and how the separatist movement was allegedly orchestrated by the Russian government. Key allegations are that Russian soldiers and hired mercenaries posting as “volunteers” are active among the separatist fighters, and that Russia has been supplying the separatists with arms, spending over 53 billion rubles ($1 billion) to supply and reinforce the Donetsk and Luhansk rebels. The report names several separatist leaders as agents for the Kremlin, subordinate to Putin’ aide Vladislav Surkov. Other claims by the report is the significant financial loss incurred by Russian actions in Ukraine (estimated at 2 trillion rubles in salaries and 750 billion rubles in savings) as well as the deaths of at least 220 Russian soldiers so far.

The Nemtsov report claims that Russia has up to 10,000 troops active in Ukraine under the guise of “volunteers.” Evidence of direct Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine is supported by sightings of advanced Russian made weaponry in Ukraine developed after the end of the Cold War, such as the Pancir-S1 surface-to-air defense system and the Tornado-S multiple rocket launcher system.

It remains to be seen just how the Russian government will respond to the Nemtsov report, and for Nemtsov’s associates who finished and published the report. Russian opposition activist and report author, Illya Yashin, has confirmed that the website hosting an online edition of the report is currently experiencing a DdoS attack and that he and other authors working on the report have received threats.

ICYMI: Fred Fleitz on Obama, Intelligence, and Russia

Center for Security Policy Senior Fellow Fred Fleitz was interviewed on the September 4th, 2014 edition of Secure Freedom Radio. The entire interview may be listened to here.

On President Obama’s attitude towards his Presidential Daily Briefs:

My view is that [President Obama] is taking after one of the worst presidents in American history, Bill Clinton, on foreign policy. He thinks he knows better than the experts, and he has very bad plans that he’s come up with himself. I think he reads this intelligence in the [Presidential Daily Brief], and since it doesn’t match his policy assumptions—and we saw Bill Clinton do this—he’s just rejecting it…I think that there is an arrogance here, and it is made worse by incompetence.

On Vladimir Putin:

I’m writing a piece write now that looks at statements by Obama officials that nations simply don’t engage in military operations to bully and invade other nations in this century like they did in the 19th century. Putin has done this repeatedly: in Georgia, in Moldova. Look at the outrageous crackdowns in Chechnya. He’s done this again and again and again. There are still troops in Georgia, there are still troops in Moldovan territory. The West protested, then moved on. Putin has no reason to believe NATO won’t do the same thing with Ukraine.

No NATO Arms for Russia

Now that Russia has overtly invaded Ukraine, even some of the NATO allies who have been staving off meaningful penalties for Vladimir Putin’s aggression seem to agree that more needs to be done.

At the moment, the next step seems likely to be in the form of additional economic sanctions, whereby whole Russian industries would be targeted. Putin’s palpable contempt for the West might even prompt this week’s NATO summit finally to green-light weapons transfers that would give the Ukrainian military a fighting chance to defend its homeland.

If NATO really wants to show Putin it is serious, though, the allies need to stop arming the Russian military. But France wants to deliver the first of two amphibious ships ideally suited to future attacks on Russia’s neighbors.

NATO should just say “Non.”

Putin’s New ‘Nuclear’ Option

The escalating crisis in Ukraine being engineered by Vladimir Putin is taking on the feel of the Guns of August: an inexorable march towards a wider conflict, and perhaps a conflagration. Having few good options to prevent the Russian autocrat from taking whatever he wants from Ukraine and possibly other neighboring states the Kremlin in what calls “the Near Abroad,” Europe and the Obama administration have been ratcheting up economic sanctions on individuals, banks and companies known to be favored by the Putin regime.

The London Daily Telegraph gives a flavor of what is in store in the wake of murderous attacks on Ukrainian military personnel by Russian special forces and others and retaliatory action by the government in Kiev:

“The International Monetary Fund said the conflict risks deep damage to Russia’s economy, starving it of foreign funds and know-how. ‘Geopolitical tensions have brought the Russian economy to a standstill. Russia’s actions have increased the uncertainty of doing business in Russia and are having a chilling effect on investment. Capital outflows could reach $100 billion in 2014.”

“This comes at a crucial moment when the old growth model based on energy has been exhausted, [the IMF] said. [It] expects growth to fall to 0.2 percent this year, with risks ‘starkly to the downside.’”

“Russia’s central bank chief Elvira Nabullina said capital flight was playing havoc with exchange rate policy. ‘Rouble stability is impossible unless we slow capital outflows.’”

If Putin intensifies his interference in Ukrainian affairs, the Russians seem likely to experience still worse economic dislocation. The Telegraph reports that German chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union has issued a strategy paper that “called for a complete change in policy, deeming it impossible to work with the Kremlin so long as Vladimir Putin is in charge.” That would mean that the Western government heretofore most determined to avoid harsh sanctions on Russia (not least because they would harm Moscow’s many trading partners in Germany) will no longer run interference for the Kremlin and will seek the downfall of its long-time master.

So far, Vladimir Putin is responding to such economic measures and strategic developments by doubling down. He declared on July 1, “I want everyone to understand: Our country will continue to defend the rights of Russians abroad and to use our entire arsenal.”

Such statements would be ominous under any circumstance. That arsenal is formidable and has, to varying degrees already been brought to bear:

Putin has put into place the ground forces needed to seize the industrial heartland of Ukraine. Other nations on Russia’s littorals – including NATO member nations in the Baltics – could also suddenly face Kremlin-manufactured separatist movements that ask Mother Russia for solidarity and protection.

Putin has already engaged in economic warfare against Ukraine, most recently cutting off its access to natural gas imports – ostensibly over payment arrearages, but clearly with an eye toward euchring accommodation of Russian demands.

President Putin has made no secret of his determination to brandish Russia’s nuclear weapons stockpile. He is comprehensively modernizing it, in contrast to the steady atrophying of America’s strategic forces, rationalized by President Obama’s reckless, unilateral pursuit of a “world without nuclear weapons” – starting with ours. The Russian despot has resumed provocative Cold War-style penetrations by long-range nuclear-capable bombers of U.S. and allied airspace. He has also threatened to engage in nuclear attacks on adversaries, near and far.

It appears, however, that Putin may have just added to his “arsenal” a new weapon, one that could give him a new and devastating “nuclear option.” In fact, the mere threat of its use against the Europeans and the Americans may be sufficient to impel their acquiescence to his demands on Ukraine and, for that matter, just about anything else he wants.

According to a CNBC report on July 1, “The industrial control systems of hundreds of European and U.S. energy companies have been infected by a sophisticated cyber weapon operated by a state-backed group with apparent ties to Russia.” If true, Putin could threaten to unleash at any time via a Stuxnet-like computer worm an attack on the electric grids of the United States and Europe. Such a cyber attack could potentially disrupt the distribution of power to their respective critical infrastructures for protracted periods.

Should that occur, societal breakdowns, economic collapse and losses that run to the hundreds of millions of lives are distinct possibilities, if not certainties. The Free World as we have known it could cease to exist, without a shot being fired.

Such a scenario was among those validated in London this week at a meeting of top government officials, legislators, public utilities regulators, electric industry leaders, scientists and other experts from the United States, Britain, Israel and a number of other countries. The good news is that, in light of such very bad news about the dangers we face – with or without a Russian Stuxnet 2.0, this Electric Infrastructure Security Summit seemed to precipitate an unprecedented willingness on the part of the various stakeholders represented to collaborate for the purpose of protecting the grid against all hazards.

The prospect of Vladimir Putin or any other adversaries being able, one way or another, to pose such an existential threat to our nation demands corrective action without further delay. What is needed now is nothing less than a crash, supreme-priority Manhattan Project-style national effort. We must bring to bear the best minds and the necessary resources to protect our critical infrastructure and, thereby, help preserve this country and the rest of the Free World in the face of the present danger – and those in the offing.