Tag Archives: North Korea

U.S. Set for Harsh Response to Foreign Election Meddling

Originally published on The Washington Free Beacon:

The U.S. government has prepared harsh responses to any nations or groups that seek to disrupt the midterm elections this week, according to a senior National Security Council official who recently left the White House.

Fred Fleitz, the chief of staff for the NSC until last week, also said the United States may not extend the New START arms treaty with Russia over concerns Moscow is not complying with the 2010 strategic arms accord.

On potential meddling by China and Russia in the midterm elections that end Tuesday night, Fleitz, a former CIA analyst, said the NSC held hours of meetings to discuss threats and responses.

“Our enemies have been trying to meddle in our elections for many years. It didn’t just happen in 2016,” Fleitz said in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon.

“I know that there are very, very sound and serious policies to stop any meddling in the 2018 election, and to hold any parties that do that accountable,” said Fleitz, who will soon take over as president of the conservative Center for Security Policy, a Washington think tank.

Fleitz, as chief of staff and executive director of the NSC, had access to some of the nations most intimate secrets and also helped coordinate key national security policy. He took part in internal White House meetings on the threat posed by foreign targeting of the midterm elections.

Press reports, he said, about the administration’s planning and policies were “extremely distorted” in failing to recognize the large amount of time senior officials devoted to “making sure this doesn’t happen again.”

“My hope is there won’t be any meddling,” he said. “But if there is, I think there are going to be dire consequences for the nations and parties that do that.”

Asked whether U.S. government agencies are preparing to conduct counter cyber attacks against foreign states that seek to disrupt voting or vote tallying, Fleitz declined to elaborate.

“I can simply say it is a very substantial policy,” he said. “Many, many hours were spent putting it together.”

Under new authorities authorized by the president, the U.S. intelligence community and Pentagon are prepared to conduct counter-hacking attacks on Russia or China if election interference is detected. Doing so would be one of the first uses of American offensive cyber attack capabilities.

The Fort Meade-based Cyber Command and the National Security Agency are the government’s two main cyber attack centers.

No details of plans for counter cyber attacks have been disclosed. They likely would involve conducting intrusions into bank accounts and information systems of foreign actors linked to election meddling operations. The goal could be to sabotage cyber attack infrastructures or funding sources.

An NSC spokeswoman did not comment on what plans are in place for countering foreign election meddling.

Trump administration security officials said in a briefing on election security last week that elections will be held in about 10,000 local districts nationwide.

“Every single one of those has a range of authorities and emergency plans that are in place already to be able to deal with a range of emergencies that happen,” a senior National Security Council official said.

President Trump in September signed an executive order on election security that directs the imposition of sanctions against states caught engaging in election interference.

The Department of Homeland Security is monitoring election infrastructure while the FBI and CIA are conducting intelligence gathering related to foreign election interference.

The interference can range from influence operations, such as advertising and lobbying to affect voting, as well as the use of social media to sow division and planting stories in English language media. Seeding disinformation about political candidates and disseminating foreign propaganda are other foreign influence tools.

Separately, technical interference through cyber and other electronic means is also a concern.

That interference could include actions taken against the electoral systems and processes. Potential activities could target the infrastructure used to register voters, generate ballots, record votes, tally votes, and to certify votes that are then delivered to authorities. It could also include seeking to interfere with approval or disapproval of ballot measure or referendum.

“That has to be met with swift and severe action, which is why the president has put that executive order in place to make sure that we bring to bear all capabilities of the federal government to react, number one, warn off our foreign adversaries; and number two, react swiftly and strongly in the case that we do see that level of interference,” the official said.

The administration has set up a special unit to monitor election processes from the White House. DHS, the FBI, and U.S. intelligence agencies will be monitoring the election Tuesday and for days after.

“The FBI is concerned about ongoing interference campaigns by Russia, China, and other foreign actors, including Iran, to undermine confidence in democratic institutions and influence public sentiment and government policies,” a senior intelligence official told reporters last week.

“These activities also may influence voter perceptions and decision-making in the 2018 and 2020 U.S. elections.”

“Foreign interference in U.S. elections is a threat to our democracy, and, as such, identifying and preventing this interference is a top priority for the FBI and federal government,” the official added.

Vice President Mike Pence last month outlined Chinese election interference as a covert and overt effort by Beijing to unseat the president.

Pence said China is engaged in an unprecedented bid to influence voters, such as those farm states hit by U.S. trade measures against China.

Beijing is targeting American public opinion, the 2018 election, and the environment leading up to the presidential election in 2020. China “wants a different American president,” Pence said.

Based on the high profile Russian meddling in the 2016 election, security officials are monitoring Russian intelligence and influence activities closely for signs of any new and different tactics in Moscow’s interference activities.

So far, no Russian technical operations have been detected targeting election infrastructure. Some efforts to use social media such as Facebook and Twitter have been spotted.

On arms control, Fleitz said the president will decide in the future whether or not to extend the 2010 New START arms treaty. The treaty expires in February 2021.

Fleitz suggested Russia has not complied with New START. The treaty limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed warheads.

Russia is engaged in a significant strategic nuclear forces buildup that includes several new missiles, including some that may not be compliant under New START.

“There is going to have to be a serious evaluation of the New START treaty—whether it is in American interests [and] whether Russia is complying with that treaty and then we’ll see if it will be extended,” Fleitz said.

Fleitz praised Trump’s announcement that the United States would jettison the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty based on Russian violations.

The INF Treaty was a good treaty for its day negotiated during the Cold War under President Ronald Reagan, he said.

“The problem is even the Obama administration had to acknowledge that the Russians were violating it but didn’t do anything about it,” Fleitz said.

“This is a priority for Ambassador Bolton that these treaties like this have to be fair and have to bind everyone, not just the United States.”

Russia violated the treaty by developing a ground-launched cruise missile with INF range and has deployed significant numbers of the SSC-8 missile.

“Now with Russia cheating, and with significant missile programs, not just by China but by Iran and North Korea, this treaty just didn’t make any sense,” he said. “If there is going to be an INF treaty it has to be a global INF treaty and for me this was just a no brainer.”

On other issues, Fleitz said Trump is taking on China’s unfair trade practices and theft of American intellectual property in ways no previous president has done.

“For years the United States has tolerated huge trade imbalances with the Chinese, the theft of intellectual property,” Fleitz said.

“The president has taken a different approach—he’s just not going to go along with it. We haven’t had a president prepared to confront the Chinese, maybe take on some short term economic pain to our country to make it clear that this behavior is unacceptable.”

Fleitz said he believes the pressure on Beijing is making a difference. “They see a president who is basically undeterred in his effort to press the Chinese for free and fair and balanced trade,” he said.

China’s leaders are “dragging their feet as much as they can” in giving in to Trump’s demands, Fleitz said, and that is leading the president to increasing the pressure.

“I think that’s the way it is going to keep going, that the pressure will continue until China’s behavior changes,” he said, noting that developing better trade ties is a significant priority for the president and his administration.

Fleitz said he is optimistic on negotiations with North Korea to denuclearize but that the process will be difficult.

“The North Koreans are balking and they’re threatening they’re going to pull out if they don’t get what they want. That’s just the way the North Koreans negotiate,” he said.

Fleitz also voiced concerns about the so-called snap-back sanctions that went into effect on Monday.

“Iran is one reason the president chose John Bolton to be national security adviser because he had the Bolton plan to get out of the Iran deal,” he said.

Bolton believes the Iran deal negotiated under President Barack Obama was a “fraudulent deal that couldn’t be fixed.”

The new strategy is to pursue a new deal by re-implementing sanctions that were lifted under Obama.

“This is good,” Fleitz said. “What concerns me and what concerns some conservative experts is that there are exceptions to these sanctions. Some countries will be allowed to buy oil from Iran, supposedly temporarily. I’m a little worried about that.”

Fleitz said if the president wants to maintain pressure on Iran “that means no exemptions.”

Those officials in the administration who are part of what Fleitz termed the Washington “swamp” have argued that granting the exemptions to the sanctions will be temporary.

“Giving exemptions to these sanctions I don’t think is consistent with the president’s policy and it is my hope that these exemptions will be canceled very quickly,” Fleitz said.

Fleitz said it was a privilege working for Trump, Bolton, and the NSC.

“I’m always astounded at how Ambassador Bolton absorbs huge amounts of intelligence every morning and feeds it back to the president throughout the day and in various meetings,” he said.

“an extraordinary breakthrough”


Center President Frank Gaffney discussed President Trump’s handling of the Palestinians and South Korea’s “pro North Korea president” who is “doing everything possible, it seems, to promote the idea of unification with the North Koreans, pretty much on North Korea’s terms.”

Secretary Mattis Visits Beijing

On Wednesday, June 27, Secretary of Defense James Mattis met  with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting took place in the context of recently increased economic conflict between the two nations. Both the United States and China have been implementing steep tariffs against one another. Various issues were discussed at the talks including North Korean denuclearization and the South China Sea conflicts.

The most significant issue discussed deals with the continued militarization of islands by China within the South China Sea. China has long claimed that their reason for building in the South China Sea, including construction of military facilities over the last several years, relates to defensive purposes only. Secretary Mattis reinforced the U.S. position that the islands lie in international waters and that China must adhere to international law regarding the them.

This is not the first time that China has been told it needs to follow international law. In May Mattis said that China was “out of step” with its interpretation of international law with respect to these international waters and islands.

Secretary Mattis’ visit to China comes just weeks after China was disinvited from a large scale military exercise in the Pacific Ocean, a move many saw as a signal from Washington of the continued growing concern over China’s actions in the South China Sea.

The issue with China taking over islands in the South China Sea is not a new one. Since 2013, China has been engaged in the building of large military outposts on various coral reefs and islands within the South China Sea including the installment of anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on at least three of these islands.

Further complicating the issue is that five other countries also lay claim to the islands that China is building on: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.

Mattis made it clear that freedom to navigate the international waters within the South China Sea is something the United States takes very seriously and always seeks to promote. China needs to respect the international laws dictating control over islands and ocean areas.

Another serious point that was discussed centered on how to ensure that North Korea follows through with the agreement to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe had an open and honest discussion with Secretary Mattis and both sides agreed that North Korea should ultimately give up its nuclear weapons. China, being North Korea’s main source of aid and diplomatic support, said that the approach to denuclearization should be “phased and synchronous” instead of Washington’s preference for an instant and total end to a nuclear program.

China does not want to see the denuclearization take place to fast due to the benefit that they receive from North Korea having nuclear weapons. For the Chinese, denuclearization is very much a double edge sword. On the one hand, North Korean denuclearization will hurt China economically because they will lose their monopoly on products and supplies going to North Korea. China provides North Korea with food and energy supplies, and in 2015 China and North Korea launched a bulk cargo and container shipping route between the two countries.  China also fears a regime collapse. If this were to happen China would be faced with a potential refugee crisis on its border, in addition to the loss of the buffer that the North Korea regime provides between its border and that of the U.S.-allied South Korea. On the other hand, having North Korea denuclearize promotes peace in the region which is already rife with hostility over land and international boundaries.

 

North Korean Summit

On Tuesday June 12th, 2018 President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un both met in a historic summit between the two nations. President Trump and Kim Jong Un met around 9 a.m. Tuesday Morning, which was 9pm Monday in Washington.

President Trump and Kim Jong Un signed agreements laying out activities that both sides are going to be partaking in within the coming months. President Trump announced that the United States would freeze upcoming war games with South Korea. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not specify what security assurances would be granted to the North Koreans, but did say that they would not go further then what was agreed to in 2005. The 2005 nuclear deal was issued by negotiators from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea. The statement said that the North would allow inspectors to enter the country and they would stop all production and testing of nuclear bombs.

The White House released the text of a joint statement following the meeting. The joint statement detailed four different points that the two nations acknowledged to work towards, including establishing new relations, discussing the establishment of a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula and the complete denuclearization of the Peninsula. The fourth and final point was to commit to recovering POW/MIA U.S. service members lost during the Korean War.

The president’s decision to meet with the North Korean President comes at a time of heightened security and alertness within the region.  Just this last year  North Korea conducted numerous ballistic missile tests while the president and Kim Jong Un traded barbs. This meeting comes in the wake of the North Koreans and South Koreans joining together for the Olympic games and also following the meeting of both South Koreans president Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un of North Korea. During the joint Koreas meeting they signed the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification on the Korean Peninsula. There were also potential talks about formally ending the Korean War.

Following President Trump and Kim Jong Un’s historical meeting, many unanswered questions remain. The looming question is where or not Kim Jong Un will follow through with denuclearization, as well as questions about how the U.S. will verify such measures.

Follow up negotiations are supposed to take place with Secretary of State  Mike Pompeo and a high level North Korean official, at the earliest possible date between the two countries. It’s likely that these meetings will begin to lay the groundwork for an actual agreement, and where sharp disagreements between the two sides are most likely to arise.

The United States has hit North Korea with multiple different sanctions over the years to try and attempt a meeting with them. The most recent sanctions were put on by Executive Order 13810. Which states that no property may be transferred to North Korea including but not limited to; construction, fishing, energy, medial, mining, manufacturing, or transportation. Further more the order stated that making any type of contribution would be blocked by the government. These sanctions made it so no one in the United States could do any type of business with the county of North Korea.  By issuing strong sanctions it was one tool that was used to bring Kim Jong Un to the talks in Singapore.

China did state that sanctions relief could be considered for North Korea, following the meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong Un. China was one a country that did sign on to the United Nations sanctions against the north. China did state that sanctions can be changed given changes in politics.

It seems at this point that the United States will not be relieving sanctions against the North Koreans while the talks are ongoing. The US does not want to lose the leverage it currently has over the regime.

President Trump and Kim Jong Un both expressed optimism at the conclusion of the summit, with Trump thanking Kim Jong Un for taking first steps to help bring about a denuclearized Korean peninsula.

North Korean Military Shakeup

Over the weekend of June 3rd ,2018, it was reported that three top military officials had been removed from their posts. Supposedly the shakeup come as Kim Jong-un is trying to silence dissent ahead of the summit with President Donald Trump, on June 12th.  The three officials that have been reported to be removed are defense chief Pak Yong-Sik;  chief of the Korean People’s Army (KPA), Ri Myong-su, and Kim Jong-gak the director of the KPA General Political Bureau. Pak Yong-Sik was listed in recent Department of Treasury designation targeting North Korean leaders.

The shake up in leadership may allow Kim  to tighten control over the Korean Army before the meeting with the U.S. next week.  Tightening control over the army would allow Kim control over economic development efforts, as the army plays a major role in the North Korean economy.

All the newly appointed officials are younger than their predecessors. One new appointees is 63-year-old Ri Yong-gil, who is 21 years younger than Ri Myong-su. It was reported that Kim Su Gil, another replacement appointment has risen in prominence within the recent months and was seen accompanying the North Korean leader on a May 26th.

This is not the first time that Kim Jong-un has removed top officials within his administration. In early August 2016 Kim ordered the execution of two top officials. Ri Yong Jin, a senior education ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption after reportedly falling asleep during a meeting, and Agriculture Minister Hwang Min was killed after reported involvement in working on a proposed project not favored by Kim. Both officials were executed by anti-aircraft gun. This was the first recorded execution by Kim of an official that was not within the military ranks.

One of the most high-profile executions was the execution of Kim’s uncle Jang Song-thaek. Thaek was charged with corruption including selling natural resources at a discount to China. Close ties to China has been a common theme among purged officials.

Other high profile executions include military chief Ri Yong Gil who was charged with corruption. General Pyon In Son who disagreed with Kim and finally defense minister Hyon Yong Chol for sleeping during a rally. Reports of the purges are not uncommon but sometimes are not the most reliable and hard to prove.

General Hyon Yong Chol was killed by anti-aircraft fire after reportedly dozing off in a meeting and second guessing orders by Kim. Since 2012 it is reported that 68 senior officials have been killed for not following orders of Kim or questioning his decisions.

In February 2017 it was reported that 5 officers of the State Security Ministry were killed by anti-aircraft guns after falsifying reports that were sent to Kim Jong Un. The reports were about worker party officials as well as the citizens of North Korea.

Also in February of 2017, Kim Jong Un’s half-brother Kim Jong Nam was killed while waiting to board a flight at Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Two women put a nerve agent on his face while he was checking in at the Kiosk for his flight. It was later determined that the nerve agent that was the agent VX a banned nerve agent by international treaty.

Kim continues to remove any obstacle to his authority entering into the upcoming summit June 12th. While it’s important for U.S. negotiators to have confidence that Kim has the ability to enforce any agreement which may arise, the history of purges remains a reminder of the nature of the North Korean Regime.

 

Yahoo News takes notice of prescient North Korea book by Fred Fleitz published by CSP in March

Yahoo News reported on an important Center publication in a post on Wednesday, June 6.  Entitled “The Coming North Korea Nuclear Nightmare: What Trump Must Do to Reverse Obama’s “Strategic Patience,” it was released on the eve of the initial announcement that a Trump/Kim summit was in the offing.

Commenting on the importance of Fleitz’s book, Yahoo notes:

While different officials and ideas rapidly fall in and out of favor in the White House, Fleitz’s book sheds light on what exactly Bolton and his allies could be pushing for on one of the most crucial foreign policy issues facing the Trump administration.

The Coming North Korea Nuclear Nightmare was published by Center for Security Policy Press. Links to a free PDF, paperback, Amazon kindle and Facebook live-stream video of the book’s launch event can be found here.

 

North Koreans Illicit Oil Trade

On Thursday May 31st,2018 while visiting North Korea, Russians foreign minister Sergei Lavrov extended an offer to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to visit Moscow. This took place while most media was focused on meetings between North Korean negotiator Kim Yong Chol and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Moscow says it wants all parties to take a delicate approach towards North Korean denuclearization.  Moscow is also seeking the easing of sanctions prior to the conclusion of the process, in contradiction to U.S. policy, which is intended to prevent the North Koreans from pocketing early concessions during ongoing negotiations.

Pyongyang’s view of the denuclearization is dramatically different then that of the United States. Pyongyang has emphasized concerns that total denuclearization would leave the North vulnerable, saying it will only relinquish nuclear weapons in engage for a security guarantee from the United States.

The meeting between Kim and Lavrov was the first Russian official to be received by Kim Jong-un. Lavrov is Russia’s top diplomat and pictures were released of the two men shaking hands and smiling. The visit of Lavrov comes a very crucial time in the International Security community before next months planned meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump.

Last month, it was reported that Ri Yong Ho, North Korea’s foreign minister, held talks with Lavrov in Moscow. It is very interesting that these talks are taking place with the summit between Pyongyang and the United States taking place in Singapore on June 14th, 2018. I believe that Moscow is trying to get a stake in the talks without being in Singapore during the actual meeting.

The meeting between Russia and North Korea comes after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s meeting with Kim Yong-Chol, Kim is one of the top lieutenants in the Workers party in North Korea.

. Russia and North Korea have a long-standing relationship that goes back to the end of World War II. Since the 1990s North Korea has relied on a robust black market and illict industries to meet such shortages that its state-run economy cannot meet, utilizing connections with Russian mafia groups.

It was reported that in recent months going back to December 2017. Russian tankers have been supplying fuel to North Korea on multiple occasions. It appears that the Russian vessels made the transfers at sea to the North Koreans, the transfers included oil and or petroleum products in direct violation of United Nation sanctions.

European security sources said the shipments did not appear to be backed by the Russian government, although its unclear how they reached this conclusion.

In a statement the United States Department of State said they have called on Russia and other U.N. members to make sure that sanctions against North Korea are strictly enforced and enforced properly and that all U.N. prohibited activities are put to an immediate end.

In addition to oil, Russian sanctions violators are also playing a major role in allowing the North Koreans to smuggle coal.

The Russian seaport of Kholmsk on Russia’s Far East coast has seen a major increase in the amount of vessels carrying North Korean coal, which is illegal to import due to United Nation’s sanctions against North Korea.

Ships flying multiple country flags have left North Korean ports loaded with coal and then “laundered” it by claiming the product is actually Russian coal, upon which there are no sanctions. The coal trade with Russia has been ongoing as early as January 2017. On August 5th, 2017 the United Nations officially banned the shipment of North Korean coal to any country.

Some of the “laundered” coal ended up in countries supportive of the North Korean sanctions including Japan and South Korea.

On February 28th, 2018, President Trump announced that sanctions against 28 different ships from  China and 7 other countries would be put in effect to close the loophole that allows North Korea to import oil and export coal. . The illegal ship-to-ship transfers of coal and oil have allowed North Korea to bypass sanctions that were put in place after repeated nuclear and missile tests.

These actions are the exact reasons that the Trump administration has imposed new economic sanctions on North Korean related shipping

The intervention of other parties, especially strategic adversaries like Russia remains a risk to ongoing U.S.-North Korean bilateral negotiations. This is particularly the case given Russian profiting from sanctions violation, and strategic desire to see North Korea remain a potential threat to U.S. interests in the region.

 

 

New book dissects the North Korean threat, Obama’s role and what President Trump must now do


New Fleitz Book Dissects the North Korean Threat, Obama’s Role in Its Growth and What Trump Must Now Do About It 
With President Trump’s recent agreement to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Pyongyang’s reported willingness to discuss denuclearization, the Center for Security Policy is proud to issue a new book that provides a timely and comprehensive analysis of the North Korean threat and how the Obama administration’s Strategic Patience policy allowed this threat to surge unchecked. Most importantly, The Coming North Korea Nuclear Nightmare: What Trump Must Do to Reverse Obama’s “Strategic Patience” explains how President Trump’s North Korea policy has changed the dynamics of this crisis and why his policy may be the world’s last hope to end it.

The Coming North Korea Nuclear Nightmare was written by the Center’s Senior Vice President for Policy and Programs Fred Fleitz who followed the North Korean nuclear program for the CIA, State Department and the House Intelligence Committee staff. Fleitz is one of Washington’s leading experts on the North Korean nuclear program and briefed top secret intelligence on this program to members of the House Intelligence Committee.

View the full book launch livestream event featuring Fleitz and fellow experts President and CEO Frank Gaffney and VP for Research and Analysis Clare Lopez

Fleitz’s analysis of the Obama administration’s failed North Korea policy is a must-read for Trump officials to help them avoid repeating the mistakes of the last administration.

Fleitz makes clear that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is not a deterrent – it is an offensive force that it will one day use to try to reunite the Korean peninsula on its terms and drive U.S. forces from the Asia-Pacific region.

With over a dozen charts, maps and photos, The Coming North Korea Nuclear Nightmare is designed to help the reader understand the scope and size of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile arsenals and the huge surge in these programs during the Obama years.

Center for Security Policy President Frank Gaffney said about The Coming North Korea Nuclear Nightmare:

The new book by Fred Fleitz could not be more topical. He makes the case that President Trump’s North Korea policy is succeeding, despite the mess he was left by President Obama. More importantly, in this highly readable yet comprehensive analysis, Mr. Fleitz has provided in the nick of time a crucial guidebook for any future talks with North Korea and, in particular, a meeting between the leader of the Free World and the tyrant that brutally misrules one of the planet’s most unfree – and dangerous – nations: Kim Jong Un.