Tag Archives: Russia

Iran plans for Aleppo, US pilots in Syria, Israel arrests Hamas leader, Congo protests…

Threat Information Office headlines 10-20-2015
Iran preparing forces for Aleppo battle as Quds Force chief reviews troops in Syria

Bashar al-Assad’s forces are preparing to battle for control of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo.  The highly strategic city, which connects from the Turkish border to Damascus along Syria’s main highway, is currently divided in three: the Syrian army, al-Qaeda and other rebels, and IS control sectors within and around the city.

To break the stalemate, Iranian Quds Force commander General Qassem Soleimani is directing reinforcements in the form of Shia militias from Iraq to join Iranian troops, Hezbollah fighters, and the Syrian army to attempt a takeover of Aleppo backed by Russian air strikes, which have mainly targeted secular and American-backed rebels. The Iranian move of resources from Iraq to Syria highlights the importance of Aleppo, as the Shia militias from Iraq were engaged in defending against IS there.

US pilots in Syria keep low profile against Russian jets as agreement on maneuvers is near

Syrian skies are increasingly crowded: American, Russian, Syrian, French, Australian, Saudi, Jordanian, and Emirati air forces are all flying missions, targeting everyone from IS to secular opponents of Bashar al-Assad.  This volatile situation could easily result in a disaster if not brought under control.  To prevent an incident with Russia, American pilots have been directed to avoid any perceived or real provocation by Russian pilots.

In the works for weeks, the agreement between the US and Russia on rules of engagement and flight procedures over Syria is expected to be announced today.  According to Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis, the agreement will be limited to prevention of aircraft collisions via a communications channel whose structure will be outlined in the final draft.

Israel arrests top Hamas operative as violence continues

Ongoing violence in Israel has led to the arrest of Hamas co-founder Hassan Yousef for “actively instigating and inciting terrorism” according to the IDF, which carried out the operation in Ramallah yesterday. Attacks targeting both Israeli soldiers and civilians have resulted in 9 dead and approximately 70 injured.  Yousef released a statement earlier this month in which he urged Palestinians to attack Israelis, which has been the pattern in the past week.  Yousef is a high level Hamas spiritual and political leader from the West Bank.

The most recent bout of violence shows no signs of calming down, as the Palestinians resort to knifings and running over Israelis.  UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is on a visit to the region, where he called for both parties to negotiate a two-state solution.

Congo opposition protests President Sassou Nguesso’s bid for a third term

Following a pattern seen throughout emerging African democracies, Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso is the latest leader seeking to extend his term past the constitutionally mandated limit.  Protests erupted in the Congolese capital of Brazzaville, with demonstrators demanding Sassou not hold a referendum this upcoming Friday that would eliminate age and term limits for the president.

Mobile service, internet, text messaging, and radio signals were cut ahead of the protests, which are largely led by Congolese youth.  By eliminating their access to their forms of communication, as well as radio for the population at large, Sassou appears to be in control of the narrative ahead of the referendum.

Other stories we’re watching:

Yemen government-in-exile and Houthi rebels begin peace talks

Russian airstrikes in Syria kill 45, including rebel commander

Kenyan security searching for 5 Kenyans suspected of al-Shabab links

Diversion in Syria benefiting Ukraine as peace deal in the works

Breakaway province South Ossetia seeks to hold vote on joining Russia

Obama authorizes Navy ships to sail close to artificial Chinese islands in S. China Sea

China condemns exiled Uighur leader remarks as Jinping arrives in UK

Initiative for Global Development to hold conference on African private sector in Washington

 

Palestinian Protesters set fire to tomb; Turkey shoots down drone; Brazil intelligence chief dies; Afghan government welcomes troop extension

Palestinian Protesters set fire to Joseph’s tomb in Nablus

Hundreds of Palestinian youth threw Moltov cocktail bombs at Joseph’s tomb complex on Friday morning. Some of the rioters then broke in and began throwing the explosives inside. Palestinian security then took control, firing shots into the air and removing them from the sight. Israelis are outraged, declaring the scene “unforgivable.”

The tomb is located in the West Bank City of Nablus and is revered as that of the biblical figure, Joseph. Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas has condemned the violence and said the site would be repaired. Earlier in the week, Abbas had claimed that Israel had executed a 13 year old Palestinian boy. Israeli PM Netanyahu quickly responded, accusing Abbas of “lies and incitement.”

Also on the West Bank, a Palestinian disguised as a news photographer stabbed and wounded an Israeli soldier, the attacker was later shot dead.

Turkey Warplanes shoot down drone near Syria, US suspects Russian origin

Turkey shot down an unidentified drone in Turkish airspace near Syria. US officials say that they believe it was of Russia origin. The Turkish military says that its jets shot down the aircraft after it continued on its trajectory after three warnings. The Russian defense ministry says that all of its planes in Syria had safely returned to base and that all drones were operating as planned. Russian jets violated Turkey’s airspace on two other occasions this month. Turkey has warned that it will respond if the instances are repeated.

Brazil ex-army intelligence Chief Dies  

Brazil’s former head of army intelligence, Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra, has died at the age of 83. The retired army Colonel had previously been accused by human rights activists of ordering the illegal arrest and torture of 500 left wing activists. He lead the Doi-Codi intelligence service from 1970-1974. Ustra never apologized for his activities against the left-wing, rather stating that he was “fighting terrorism.”

Ustra said that the current Brazilian President, Rousseff, belonged to four terrorist organizations. She was arrested in 1970 for her political activities. Ultra said that he was never in charge and only followed orders from superiors. Conflicting reports state that he was personally in charge of two torture centers. A judge found Ustra guilty in 2012 of human rights violations and ordered him to pay compensation to a journalist who was abducted by the secret police 30 years ago.

Afghan government welcomes troops extension

The Afghan government has welcomed the US’s decision to extend its military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2016. The US announced on Thursday that it would maintain 5,500 troops in Afghanistan until early 2017, a shift from the plans to remove most by late 2016; the Taliban has vowed to continue attacks on troops to force them out.  Currently there are 9,800 troops in Afghanistan, the US had planned to remove all but a small embassy based force of 1,000.

The Afghan government says the shift shows a “renewal of the partnership” and vows to step up anti-terror efforts. The Taliban has said in a statement that the removal of troops will not change their mission and attacks will increase. Last week US military commander in Afghanistan, Gen Campbell, stated that an enhanced military presence would be needed if the Taliban were to be expelled. These statements followed the Taliban’s brief capture of the northern city of Kunduz, marking their most significant gain since 2001. The Taliban maintains that this is an “unwinnable war” and that they will continue to step up their campaign.

Afghan forces have struggled to contain the insurgency and are relying on allies for support. The US fears the continual growth of the Islamic state in Afghanistan, as well as a rapid collapse of President Ghani’s government.

Other stories we’re following:

Malaysia arrests Kosovo man for “hacking US files for IS”

Dozens dead after attack on Nigerian mosque

Four wounded in violence in Central African Republic capital

Syrian Army and Russian jets target rebel towns north of Homs

Mexico, US to open jointly staffed border stations

Venezuelan opposition politician Manuel Rosales arrested

Russian offensive, Iraq prepares to fight IS, Iranian missiles, South China Sea tensions…

Threat Information Office Headlines 10-14-15

Russia on the offensive in Syria as Nusra front calls for revenge

Air strikes continue in what is now increasingly a proxy war in Syria between the US and Russia.   Reports indicate that Russian strikes have been focused on the western region of the country, targeting primarily rebel forces, some with US backing.  The US-led coalition is concentrating its air strikes in the eastern region, which is mostly held by the Islamic State.  In Hama, CIA-trained rebel forces have been using anti-tank TOW missiles against Syrian army troops, which are supported by Russian air forces.  CENTCOM spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren said that in Aleppo, the Russian strikes may help IS in their bid to take control of Syria’s second largest city.

Currently, Aleppo is divided between Syrian government forces, rebel groups, and IS. The Syrian army is conducting ground operations to seize control over the whole city, supported by Russian air cover, Hezbollah brigades, and Iranian army troops, which have recently arrived.  In response, Nusra Front leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani released an audio message calling for “mujahideen in the Caucasus” to launch attacks against Russia.

Iraq also launches operations against IS, but US concerned over cooperation with Russia

Seeking to retake territory lost to Islamic State last year, the Iraqi army has begun launching air strikes against IS as well.  While there have been recent successes, including the killing of IS second-in-command Fadhil Ahmad al Hayali in a US strike, the Islamic State remains in control over much of Anbar province. The Iraqi army has announced that it is prepared to wage battle for control of the provincial capital, Ramadi, after slowly gaining ground throughout the surrounding countryside.

While this is a welcome development, the US is wary over the intelligence-sharing alliance Iraq has entered into with Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.   The US shares intelligence with Iraq as well, raising concerns about what may be passed on to Russia and the other alliance members.  Based in Baghdad, the coordination center reportedly provided information that led to an airstrike on a convoy suspected of carrying IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. While by all accounts he was unhurt, the sharing of information between Iraq and Russia will continue, as Vladimir Putin has been invited to assist Baghdad in conducting airstrikes in Iraq, a prospect highly unwelcome in Washington.

Iran showcases missile capability

An Iranian state TV station aired footage of underground tunnels loaded with ready-to-fire long and medium-range missiles today. According to the broadcast, this underground facility is one of hundreds of underground bases throughout the country. Iran is currently allied with the Syrian army and Hezbollah in the fight against Syrian rebels.

The US State Department has announced that Washington will address Iran’s missile test on Sunday, which is considered a violation of a UNSC resolution, at the United Nations. State Department and White House spokesmen have attempted to differentiate between the missile test violation and Iran nuclear deal. On Tuesday, White House spokesman Josh Earnest announced that countries could be more proactive in stopping the flow of ballistic missile technology to Iran, saying the effort “requires international cooperation” with Gulf allies.

Tensions Rise in South China Sea 

The Obama administration is prepared to send Navy vessels to patrol the man-made islands constructed by China in the South China Sea. Apparently, the Pentagon has given Obama a number of options on how to carry out this operation—i.e. the amount of armament and distance from the islands. According to the US, which historically refused to take sides in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, man-made islands are not considered sovereign territory under international law.

Ever since US officials publicized this strategy, China’s response has been firm, as they are developing military facilities in some of the islands, though China has announced that the construction is legal and essential to safeguard sovereignty.

Meanwhile, China has shot down rumors that it intended to send military ships and its aircraft carrier to Syria to fight alongside Russia.

Other stories we’re following:

Putin criticizes lack of US cooperation in Syria

US and Russian aircraft fly within miles of each other in Syria

Israeli army deployed across cities to counter Palestinian knife attacks

Taliban withdraws from Kunduz, remain on outskirts

Turkish PM warns both US and Russia over Kurd support

Suicide bombing kills 7 in northern Nigeria

Uganda begins withdrawal from South Sudan

Abu Sayyaf releases hostage video in southern Philippines

Russia’s endgame in Syria: Follow the Money

As Vladimir Putin orders airstrikes against rebels of all stripes fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime, there are important strategic economic goals behind Russia’s actions in Syria.  The short term goal is easy to discern: prevent Assad’s collapse as no alternative suitable to Russian interests exists, preserve Russia’s only naval base in the Middle East at Tartus, and promote Russia both at home and abroad as a world power that counterbalances American hegemony.

Much of the media has focused on Putin as a personal driver of Russian behavior.  While forays into Georgia and Ukraine have accomplished the tactical goals of preventing increased European Union presence in Russia’s sphere of influence, these have come at a high cost both politically and economically in the form of isolation and sanctions. Putin seems to have concluded that intervening in Syria in the name of fighting terrorism can only help repair Russia’s battered image.

It is important to at least try to understand Putin’s motivation without delving too much into psychoanalysis.  He is on record as lamenting the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”  In power since 2000, the former KGB officer is an ardent Russian nationalist, a promoter of a personality cult concerned with his country’s standing and perception in the world.  With his career spent in the service of the state, he is not one to take a background role in world affairs. Putin has effectively used Russia’s alliance with Iran as an effective tool to undermine the US, both regionally in the Gulf and globally with the nuclear deal.

The current buildup at Tartus and Latakia is nothing new: since Hafez al-Assad’s rise to power in 1970, the Former Soviet Union and then Russia was and is a stalwart ally, long attempting to position Syria as a counterbalance to American and Israeli military superiority in the Middle East.

Russia’s actions are also a message to the world: unlike the US, which abandoned long-time ally Hosni Mubarak during his time of need in Egypt, Russia is prepared to intervene, militarily if necessary, to preserve a friendly regime in danger.  Therefore, it pays for autocrats to court Moscow, especially if they possess valuable resources or are in prime strategic locations.

While Vladimir Putin ostensibly espouses the acceptable goal of a global alliance against IS, the strategic context is that he has entered into a sectarian alliance with Shia Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the proxy army Hezbollah (The P4+1) against the American-backed Sunni alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE, all of whom insist that Assad has no future in Syria.

Through its airstrikes, Russia continues to advance the prior Syrian strategy of focusing efforts against pro-Western rebels, with the recognition that, while dangerous, the Islamic State is the one party in the conflict the West will never support.

The Islamic State will take advantage of both the respite, and the propaganda value of being the recognized number one enemy of the infidel coalition, which it uses to rally supporters simply by pointing out that its enemies are gathering to destroy the renewed Caliphate.

The one strategic motivation for Russia that has been widely ignored is the economic one.  Qatar, the richest country in the world per capita and also owner of the world’s largest natural gas field, proposed in 2009 to jointly construct a gas pipeline running through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and into Europe.  Assad, not wanting to provoke Moscow, refused to sign on.  Instead, he floated an alternative: an Iran-Iraq-Syria and possibly Lebanon pipeline, to then follow under the Mediterranean to Europe. The Qatar-Turkey pipeline would run through majority Sunni countries with the exception of Syria’s Alawite regime. Assad’s counter proposal follows the Shia crescent.

Russia, not wanting to lose its primary market in Europe, is adamantly opposed to a prospective Qatari project.  A military presence in Syria will guarantee that even if Assad is removed from power, the pipeline will not be built.  It will look on favorably to the Iranian proposal, provided Gazprom and other state-owned companies get their share of the pie.

Pipeline politics in the region have a long and varied history of Russian involvement.  The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was built only after Moscow’s demand for an alternative pipeline for Azeri oil to Russia was met.  During the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, US intelligence officials determined that an explosion on the pipeline near the Turkish-Georgian border was carried out via Russian government cyber warfare.  Days after the explosion, Russian fighter jets bombed positions in Georgia close to the pipeline. Although the BTC pipeline was built precisely to avoid Russian interference, the Kremlin has never let that stop them.

Turkey and Azerbaijan have also begun construction on a joint natural gas pipeline, the TANAP. This project’s stated goal is to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas, a prospect that cannot please Moscow.   Both the BTC and TANAP bypass Armenia, a Russian ally and wary of its neighbors in the Caucasus.

As the endpoint for the Qatari project, Turkey is adamant in calling for Assad to step down or be removed, which dovetails with the proposed Sunni pipeline.  By clearing the way through Syria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia can receive a handsome return on their investment in backing jihadis fighting Assad.  On the other hand, Iran will not sit idly by and leave potential billions of dollars in the hands of its ideological and regional enemies.

Russian intervention in Syria is just beginning. There is every possibility that it will expand as more targets are found, perhaps those that are in the way of the proposed Iranian pipeline, directly threatening Damascus and by extension, the Russian monopoly of gas exports to Europe.  For the time being, Putin has the world’s attention.

Yemen attacks, Russian air campaign, Iranian strike capability, Syrian rebels…

Threat Information Office Headlines 10-6-15 

Attacks in Yemen target government officials and UAE troops

A rocket attack aimed at the al-Qasr hotel in the coastal city of Aden, Yemen left at least 15 dead, including government officials and UAE troops that are participating in the Saudi-led campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.  A military base housing Emirati troops and a palace serving as UAE headquarters were also targeted.  Emirati Minister for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash blamed Houthi rebels for the attacks, saying that they are “waging a losing battle” after losing control of Aden to the Saudi-led coalition.

The Houthis still control the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, and as the coalition pushes north from Aden, the rebels have vowed reprisals following the bombing of their positions in the capital and surrounding towns. Although the coalition has the upper hand in terms of hardware and American logistical support, the Iranian-backed Houthis have managed to maintain their insurgency, showing no signs of folding anytime soon.

Russian air campaign in Syria places NATO and the US in a bind

Refuting Russia’s claims that its air incursions into Turkey over the weekend were accidental, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday that such actions were “very serious” and demanding an explanation from Russia over its two violations of Turkish airspace.  US Defense Secretary Ash Carter is also calling on Russia to respond to requests to coordinate rules of engagement and communication with American aircraft over Syria, as both countries conduct airstrikes on Islamic State (IS), while Russia attacks American-backed rebels.  Signaling growing U.S. concern, Mr. Carter said that they are “waiting on the Russians.”

Currently, Syrian skies are crowded with American, Australian, French, and Turkish jets on one side, and Russian and Syrian aircraft on the other, raising the specter of potential confrontation, particularly as Russia shows a willful disregard in its violation of sovereign airspace. With Bashar al-Assad receives timely assistance from Moscow, the Iraqi government is now also requesting assistance from Russia as well against IS.

Ahrar al-Sham and other rebels call for coalition against Russia and Iran

In a joint statement with approximately 40 other rebel groups, al-Qaeda linked faction Ahrar al-Sham has called for a “regional coalition” against Russia and Iran, accusing them of bombing civilian targets throughout rebel-held areas.  While Ahrar Al Sham’s ally and Al Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra front did not sign the statement (nor did IS), Al Nusra’s absence shouldn’t be viewed as a lack of support, but rather likely intended to help create the appearance of separation between the AQ-linked forces, as Ahrar al-Sham, has been at pains to present themselves as a “moderate” alternative to IS. Ahrar Al Sham has not waited for a response to its declaration however, launching attacks on Russian positions in Latakia.

The Ahrar Al Sham statement follows a fatwa by Saudi-based clerics calling on “all who are able” to join the fight in Syria against Assad. Although the kingdom has criminalized both joining jihadist groups and traveling to Syria to fight, the clerics are openly defying the Saudi authorities, who continue to provide material and military support to the “Islamic Army” which is allied with Ahrar Al Sham as part of the Islamic Front and has fought side by side with Al Nusra in the past.

Iran claims missile strike capability on all US bases in Middle East

In comments made to the Iranian state news agency, IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh claimed that all American bases in the ME are “within range” of their missiles and that the nuclear deal places no restrictions on further development capability. This statement continues an ongoing propaganda campaign. Last week, Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi stated that Iran is imposing its sovereignty in the Persian Gulf “very powerfully.” These statements are likely a reaction to the news that the US Navy will be reducing its presence in the Gulf, as for the first time in seven years there will not be at least one carrier strike group navigating the sensitive waters in the coming months.

Iran is also participating in the joint command center set up in Baghdad with Iraqi, Russian, and Syrian participation to coordinate the Syrian strategy.  The increased confidence and bluster exhibited by Tehran is only the beginning as the nuclear deal is implemented.

Other stories we’re following:

Tunisian police arrest 11 IS recruiters

Violence continues in West Bank, Israelis and Palestinians killed in protests

Afghan Army fighting to retake Kunduz from the Taliban

Russia conducts airstrikes against IS targets

Boko Haram attack leaves 11 dead in Chad

Nigeria arrests Boko Haram financier  

Congress seeks to eliminate Syrian rebel training program

State Dept: cyber warfare treaty with China not on the table

US Navy warns against restrictions imposed on South China Sea

Moves and Countermoves in Syria, Violence in West Bank, Chinese Carrier Construction…

Threat Information Office Headlines 10-5-15

Russian countermoves in Syria taking shape

With Russian TV forecasting today’s weather as ‘sunny with a chance of airstrikes,’ the Kremlin is clearly unapologetic regarding its aggressive strategy of anti-Assad forces in Syria.  Parliament Defense Committee chairman Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov said that the Russian Navy is studying the possibility of initiating a blockade on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, in order to shorten its logistical supply times from Crimea, as well as carrying out artillery strikes on rebel positions.  He also raised the possibility of Russian volunteers from Ukraine heading to Syria to fight the Islamic State, with Russia reusing the “Little Green Men” strategy of deniable volunteers it used in the invasion of Ukraine.

The US has announced that strikes against IS targets will continue, raising the possibility of a proxy war reminiscent of Afghanistan in the 80’s.  In the event of a full-blown conflict, the Pentagon is revising its contingency war plans, which have not been updated since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Violence intensifies in Jerusalem and the West Bank

Violence between Israel and Palestine has intensified over the past few days, killing Israeli citizens and wounding many Palestinian protestors. Israeli military reported that at a rally organized by Hamas, Palestinians “threw firebombs, rolled burning tires and threw rocks at soldiers who eventually opened fire after using tear gas and stun grenades.” The Israeli government has reportedly been forced to increase security measures. As of Sunday, Palestinians who do not live, work, or study in Jerusalem have been barred from entering the Old City. Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group claimed responsibility for deadly stabbing attacks against Jewish citizens.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced Sunday that more Israeli troops would be deployed to Jerusalem and the West Bank, in response to the violence. Netanyahu also announced that Israel was “waging a fight to the death against Palestinian terror” and that steps would be taken to “include speeded up demolition of terrorists’ homes.”  Later on Sunday, two rockets were fired from Gaza Strip towards Israel, leaving no casualties.

China is full speed ahead on aircraft carrier construction

Beijing is also busy implementing its power projection strategy in Asia: closely following its South China Sea island reclamation project is the news that it is constructing its first aircraft carrier.  While China currently possesses just one carrier, which was retrofitted from a Ukrainian model, plans call for an additional three ships.  A limiting factor is that unlike the US and France’s steam catapult launch systems, which give their aircraft a much longer range of flight, the Chinese carriers will employ the so-called ‘ski jump’ design, which means the aircraft will launch with their own power, restricting their range of operations.

Curfew imposed in Guinean city Nzerekore after political clashes

Rival political groups are clashing in Guinea as October 11 Presidential elections approach. Violence erupted in the city of Nzerekore during a visit by President Alpha Conde, who is running for re-election. Arrests and the imposition of a curfew followed. The medical charity, Alliance for International Medical Action announced that dozens were admitted to the local hospital suffering gunshot, stone, and baton injuries.

The main rivalry is between Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) party and the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) led by Cellou Dalein Dialo. Similar clashes took place in the northern town of Koundara late last month. With Conde favored to win in the upcoming election, opposition parties request that voting be “postponed to address alleged irregularities in the process.”

Other stories we’re following:

Baghdad’s ‘Green Zone’ open to public

2 Egyptian policeman shot by IS in Sinai Peninsula

British detainee on hunger strike in Guantanamo

Turkish jets intercept Russian warplane violating airspace

70 anti-IS Sunni Arab tribesman killed by IS in Iraq

Syrian man and Filipino accomplice arrested in Saudi Arabia for plotting attack

Ukrainian president insists on Russian withdrawal by year’s end

Russia Defense Ministry: 10 IS targets hit in airstrikes since Saturday

52 Saudi academics, clerics call on public in Syria to fight Russia

Somalian president sets one year deadline for defeating al-Shabaab

18 killed outside Nigerian capital in series of explosions; suspect Boko Haram

South Sudanese President apparently violates peace agreement

NYU Student released from North Korean custody

Trans Pacific Trade deal approved, putting pressure on China’s economy

Cyberattacks increase in Asia, Iran Seeks Investment, Israel Breaks IS plot…

Hackers increase attacks on Southeast Asia

According to security provider FireEye, South-east Asia has become one of the most targeted areas in the world following recent hacking attacks on the government and several companies. Organizations in the region are on average, 45 percent more likely to be targeted than organizations elsewhere. Most of the information targeted by the hackers focuses on intelligence on border disputes and trade negotiations.

The threat is particularly high because most organizations in the region are not required to report or share information on attacks, which hampers efforts to plan defenses. Earlier in the week it was reported that the Chinese were behind the attacks, with Ge Xing, as the alleged leader. Researchers found eight different types of malware being used to break into different systems, and tracked all of Xing’s work to daytime hours, leading them to believe that the Chinese government hired him as a professional hacker.

FireEye’s report was released following the United States and China’s agreement last month to end commercial hacking. Security breaches have reportedly cost the global economy more than $400 billion dollars. Besides South East Asia, Hong Kong and Taiwan stand as the most at risk with half of their organizations exposed to attacks. China has consistently claimed not to be involved with the hacking and complains of being victim to similar attacks.

Iran invites foreign investors to develop energy industry

Iran is invited foreign investors to develop its energy agency after sanctions ease in 2016 following the Iran Nuclear deal. Oil minister Rokneddin Javadi has announced that Iran will welcome all oil companies, including Americans to invest in Iran. Iran has been flooded by business delegations since the July 14th deal in which the United States and Western allies agreed to remove economic sanctions which had heavily impacted oil production.

Javadi says that Iran needs foreign know-how to improve oil fields, pipeline, and refinery infrastructure. He continues on to explain that Iran did not keep the US from investing in Iranian oil, rather American policy’s “unjust limitations” prevented it. While U.S. companies are surely lining up to partake in Iranian business following the sanctions lift, they are still faced with human rights sanctions and other legal hurdles.

7 Israelis charged with contacting IS fighters in Syria and encouraging attacks

Seven Israeli Arabs were charged the first attempted IS plot on Israeli soil Thursday. The accused lived in northern Israel, which has traditionally been a hotbed of support for Islamist activity and support for Hamas. They are said to have been gathering intelligence on an Israeli Defense Forces base and a police station near Nazareth. Four of the seven are being charged with setting up an IS cell in Israel.

The indictment states that the group purchased weapons, made contact with IS in Syria, and started planning a shooting attack in Emek Valley. The plotters also reportedly had contact with a convicted Al Qaeda-linked terrorist, Ahmed Ahmed, presently serving a life sentence for murder, instructing them to acquire M-16 rifles, but the attackers were unable to acquire them.  and instead prepared Molotov cocktails. One of the defendants admitted to also attacking a store that was selling alcohol in 2012. Three other Israelis were charged with assisting, but did not make allegiance to IS.

Nigerian City attacked; 1,600 killed in Boko Haram attacks since June; 80 Boko Haram fighters surrender

The Northeastern Nigerian city of Maiduguri was attacked on Thursday, by five young female bombers. Fourteen people including the girls died. People were waiting for evening prayer when the bombs struck the mosque. Officials say that the number of those who lost their lives is expected to rise. Some of the girls carrying out the attack were as young as nine. Amnesty International has estimated that since June 1,600 people have died in Boko Haram violence. The deaths in Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Niger have occurred despite military advances against Boko Haram. Attacks similar to the bombing in Nigeria continue with insurgents using increased suicide bombings on “soft” civilian targets such as mosques.

The Nigerian army has been able to make more significant gains against Boko Haram, destroying rebel camps along the Northeast. On Thursday the army announced that 80 Boko Haram fighters surrendered to their troops in Bama, Borno state. The announcement followed the surrendering of 200 terrorists, among those being commanders, suppliers, and foot soldiers. The army predicts that Boko Haram will soon be defeated, but the militant groups ties with IS means that it is likely the group will only be pushed into neighboring countries. Boko Haram’s propaganda campaign has declined since the beginning of the year after culminating in their allegiance to Islamic State.

Other Stories We’re Watching:

Columbia FARC Rebels halt military training

US, UK, Turkey, say Russian airstrikes will only fuel more extremism

Russia determined to reestablish President al-Assad in Syria

Deadly Russian rocket system spotted in the Ukraine for the first time

US, allies demand Russia stop attacks on Syrian opposition

Russia bombs Syria for third day

India fights against deadly dengue outbreak

Taliban claim downing US army plane in Afghanistan; 11 killed

Riots break out at German refugee center as tensions rise

Iraq would welcome airstrikes against IS, PM says

Israeli army launches man hunt after couple killed

Bahrain orders Iranian diplomat to be expelled

Over 10 Kurdish militants killed, 44 people detained in Instanbul

Syrian Foreign Minister says Russia’ airstrikes do not target civilians or moderate opposition in Syria

What now? How to deal with the utter collapse of Obama’s Syria-Iraq strategy

A year ago, in response to the growing strength of ISIS and outrage over internet videos of ISIS beheadings, President Obama announced a strategy on Sept. 10, 2014 to “degrade and destroy” ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

The president’s four-step plan included: a systemic campaign of airstrikes in Iraq and Syria; increased support to forces fighting ISIS on the ground in Iraq and Syria, including training and arming moderate Syrian rebels; expanded counterterrorism efforts to weaken ISIS and cut off its resources; and continued support to humanitarian assistance to civilians displaced by ISIS.

Twelve months later this strategy is in ruins. Russia has sent troops into Syria and began bombing ISIS targets Wednesday.  [Author’s note: There are some reports that Russia actually bombed non-ISIS Syrian rebels, including some rebels backed by the U.S.]

Also on Wednesday, the Russian government told the United States to stay out of Syrian airspace and remove American warplanes.

Iran has increased its presence in Iraq; Moscow has strengthened its relationship with the Iraqi government.

On Sept. 27, Russian officials announced a new anti-ISIS pact between Russia, Iraq, Iran and Syrian that will include intelligence sharing.

President Obama’s Iraq-Syria strategy collapsed so quickly because, as I wrote here for Fox News Opinion last May, it was really a non-strategy to do as little as possible about this crisis for the rest of his presidency so he can hand this mess to a future president.

Pinprick airstrikes in Syria under Obama’s policy did not stop ISIS from making gains on the ground.

In Iraq, ISIS took the city of Ramadi last May despite being outnumbered 10-1 by the Iraqi army.  Iraqi officials said they would retake the city “in days.”

Four months later, there is little prospect of this or an assault to retake Mosul which was supposed to occur last spring. This is due to the weakness of Iraq’s army and President Obama’s refusal to allow U.S. military advisers or special forces leave their bases and accompany Iraqi forces into the field.

The Obama administration recently admitted its $500 million plan to train and equip moderate Syrian rebels has been a disaster.  The program spent $42 million to train its first group of 54 recruits who entered Syria from Turkey last July.  The recruits were quickly attacked by the al-Nusra Front (the al-Qaeda franchise in Syria) and forced to surrender trucks and ammunition to this terrorist group.  Most of these rebels returned to Turkey; a U.S. general told Congress only “four or five” are still fighting in Syria despite a goal of training 5,400 per year.

The fighting in Syria has caused a huge flood of refugees to seek refuge in Europe.  At the same time, more than 7,000 foreign fighters – including 250 Americans – joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq over the last year according to a new bipartisan congressional report.

Obama officials responded to the rapid collapse of its Syria-Iraq strategy with spin to exaggerate the effectiveness of the president’s policy and dismissing ISIS gains.  50 Department of Defense intelligence analysts recently filed complaints with the Pentagon IG that their work was doctored to support the Obama administration’s claim that its anti-ISIS strategy is succeeding.

The failure of President Obama’s Iraq-Syria policy is now so obvious that his advisers can no longer spin it away.

Mr. Obama’s policy created a power vacuum in the Middle East that Russian President Vladimir Putin has filled.  By seizing the initiative in the fight against IS, Putin is trying to create a new Russian-led regional axis that will counter American influence and portray Russia as a more reliable partner.  This gambit could have major benefits for Putin, including possibly by convincing Europe to drop its sanctions against Russia due to its intervention in Ukraine by promising to stop the flow of refugees to Europe from Syria.

The Obama administration is scrambling to respond to these developments.  Obama chided Putin’s Syria moves in his speech to the UN General Assembly this week, called for the removal of Syrian President Assad but also expressed willingness to work with Putin in the battle against ISIS.  Putin dismissed Obama’s demands by blaming the United States for the civil war in Syria, called for working with the Assad regime and criticized America’s efforts to train and equip Syrian rebels.

The president’s Iraq-Syria policy continues to be incoherent and dangerous.  There’s no chance of removing Syrian president Assad due to Russia’s increased support.  In his UN General Assembly speech, President Obama expressed his willingness to work with Iran to fight ISIS and end the civil war in Syria even though increasing Iran’s role in Iraq and Syria will expand Iranian influence and exacerbate Sunni-Shia tensions in Iraq.

Given that this situation is the result of seven years of incompetent policy by this administration and the president’s continuing refusal to take decisive action in Iraq or Syria, it is hard to see what the Obama administration can do to reverse it.  But there are several guidelines Mr. Obama should consider employing to dig out of the hole his policy has created:

  • Recognize that Russia and Iran are the problem, not the solution.  The United States needs to maintain dialogue with Russia but stop talking about working with Russia and Iran to fight ISIS since their goals are counter to American interests and regional security. Mr Obama needs to realize that an expanded and entrenched Russian/Iranian presence in the Middle East will have dire long term consequences for America and the region.
  • Work with our European and regional states to form a better military alliance to combat ISIS and to counter Russian and Iranian influence.  This should include creating a safe haven protected zone in northern Syria and intensified air strikes against ISIS targets.  The refugee crisis probably has made Europe more willing to participate in such an alliance.  France conducted its firs airstrikes in Syria last week.
  • End the limitations on fighting ISIS in Iraq.  Let U.S. troops leave their bases so they can operate behind the lines in Iraq and support Iraqi security forces.  Provide better weapons to the Iraqi Kurds or let our allies arm them.  Incredibly, the Obama administration blocked Gulf states from sending heavy weapons to the Iraqi Kurds in July.
  • President Obama must stop making demands he has no intention of enforcing.  The world correctly sees Mr Obama’s demands that Assad leave office and Russia stop its military aid to the Assad government as idle threats.  Every time the president makes such demands, he further undermines American credibility and emboldens U.S. enemies and adversaries.  The word of the leader of the world’s superpower must be enough to change international events and not viewed as chatter that can be safely ignored.

Given his record to date, I doubt President Obama will adopt any of these guidelines.  I expect his administration will continue its non-policy policy to leave this crisis for the next administration to solve.  As a result, American interests and regional security are likely to suffer for the rest of this presidency as Russia and Iran increase their influence.

The presidential candidates need to watch this situation closely since the Middle East disaster they will inherit from Mr. Obama likely will be much worse than the current crisis.

Originally posted on Fox News.

Russia Launches Airstrikes, Explosions in China, 9/11 Lawsuit Against Saudi dismissed…

Russia conducts air strikes in Syria, boldly demands US jets withdraw

Hours after the Russian parliament approved the use of military force, Russian jets launched multiple airstrikes against targets in Homs, a vital link between Damascus and Aleppo to the north. The strikes came with just an hour warning to US forces, as a demarche delivered to the US embassy in Baghdad demanded that US fighter jets withdraw from Syrian airspace. Senior US officials note that the targeted area is free of IS elements, and that the US will continue its operations over Syria.

This development is the latest escalation by Vladimir Putin, who continues to push the envelope against the US.  While calling for a coalition against IS at the UN (which already exists but excludes Iranian allies Syria and Iran), Russia operates freely and confidently in Syria, oblivious to US pressure to bring Russia into line with the existing coalition.  Putin appears to believe that the Obama administration can be backed into a corner, and forced to acquiesce to Russian interests.

Mysterious explosions continue in China

Chinese state media is reporting that a series of parcel bombs have exploded in the southern city of Liuzhou, near the Vietnamese border.  While the authorities have ruled out a terrorist attack, the bombs were placed at shopping malls, hospitals, and government offices.  The death toll is at 7 with as many as 50 injured.

Chinese authorities are investigating the bombings as a criminal act for the moment.  While the explosions at the Tianjin port city warehouse last August were blamed on weak security procedures, today’s bombings occurred on the eve of China’s national day and were clearly coordinated.

Lawsuit against Saudi Arabia by 9-11 families dismissed

Citing sovereign immunity, federal judge George Daniels of the District Court of New York dismissed a lawsuit by a number of 9-11 victim’s families that sought compensation from the kingdom and accused members of the royal family of facilitating the attacks.  The judge’s reasoning was that the families did not present sufficient evidence of Saudi Arabia’s role in the 9-11 plot.

Even testimony from the alleged 20th hijacker, Zacarias Moussaoui, was not enough to compel the judge to allow the lawsuit to proceed.  Moussaoui claimed that an unidentified Saudi prince provided financial support to him and other hijackers.  Lawyers for the families will appeal, citing the US government’s refusal to declassify the 28 pages in the 9-11 report, which plaintiffs believe implicates Saudi Arabia as the main reason for the lawsuit not to go forward.

Hunt for warlord Joseph Kony leads to uncomfortable partnerships

US Special Forces operating in remote areas of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and the Central African Republic have been forced to partner with an Islamic militia known as the Seleka, (“Alliance”) as the U.S. hunts for notorious warlord Joseph Kony.  The Seleka, a collective of

President Obama is expected to re-authorize the approximately 100 operators to continue their efforts to capture Kony for at least another year.  Since being deployed in 2011, Special Forces have been unable to corner him, as he moves in an area the size of California and counts on corrupt government forces as well as the Seleka faction to elude capture.

Peshmerga launch major operation against IS in Kirkuk

Many Islamic State (IS) jihadists have been killed as Kurdish Peshmerga forces launched a major operation against the organization Wednesday morning. According to BasNews, Peshmerga forces have advanced on southern and western frontlines, aiming to disband IS and secure borders of Kirkuk. In the process, the Peshmerga have managed to drive the jihadists out of several villages, destroy vehicles and facilities, and disable roadside bombs and booby-traps.

Fighting amongst the two has recently slowed down since 2014, as both the central government in Baghdad as well as the US and its allies have pressured the Peshmerga to hold old off until the Iraqi government-led coalition was ready. The Peshmerga could barely keep up with the IS’s offensive last summer, however they have reconquered lost territory and are strengthening; fighting between IS and Peshmerga forces ensues throughout Iraqi Kurdistan.

Other stories we’re following:

US welcomes Russian intervention in Syria

Pentagon stops Syrian rebel training program

Saudi Arabia: military option to oust Assad on the table

Sixteen Turkish workers abducted by Shia militia in Baghdad released

Pentagon does not know what intel Iraq is sharing with Russia

Iranian boat loaded with weapons seized off the coast of Yemen

Afghan government bid to retake Kunduz from the Taliban fails

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi moves to Ramadi

French air strikes in Syria claim child victims

7 killed in suicide attack outside Baghdad

Army assault forces Burkina Faso coup strategists to abandon barracks in capital

2 killed in Central African Republic clash between gangs and militias

Russia sells 21 Bil $ worth of aircraft and satellite equipment to Iran

Pentagon: Russian build up in Syria will extend Assad’s stay in power, lengthen the conflict

Saudi Arabia and GCC rule out cooperation with Russia in Syria

Ukrainian President denounces Russia as having “license to kill” with UN veto

Pentagon official in charge of Russia and Ukraine resigns

Russian hacker sentenced to 4 ½ years in US prison

CIA cuts back staff in Beijing embassy after OPM hack

DNI Clapper: China will not stop hacking despite agreement with US

First Chinese-made aircraft carrier may launch by year’s end

2 Japanese citizens arrested and accused of spying in China

Obama says Assad not part of Syria solution, Russia to conduct airstrikes, Saudi prince calls for coup…

President Obama at UN: Assad not part of the solution in Syria

Speaking at the 70th UN General Assembly yesterday, President Obama clashed with Vladimir Putin over the role that Bashar al-Assad should play in any post-civil war political solution in Syria. Doubling down on US policy, which officially calls for Assad to be removed, Obama referred to the responsibility to protect doctrine employed in Libya: “When a dictator slaughters tens of thousands of his own people, that is not just a matter of one nation’s internal affairs.”

While the call for Assad to step down has been consistent American policy since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, unlike in Libya, there has been minimal follow through on how to achieve that goal. By now, it is clear that Assad will not resign and will hold on to the bitter end, especially after receiving a lifeline from Putin. Likewise Syrian rebels from all factions have made clear that no political solution where Assad remains in power is possible.

Vladimir Putin: We will conduct air strikes against IS, no Russian ground troops in Syria, for now

While reports from the ground in Latakia point out the presence of Russian troops and aircraft, Vladimir Putin took the podium at the UN General Assembly and strongly backed Bashar al-Assad as a reliable partner against terrorism in general and the Islamic State in particular.   In a follow up interview with Charlie Rose, the Russian president elaborated on his strategy for the time being: “Russia will not take part in any field operations on the territory of Syria or in other states; at least, we do not plan it for now,” Putin said.

It is clear that Putin is hedging his bets, leaving open for Russian troops to join the fight if the air operations are ineffective. Syria is Russia’s only outpost in the Middle East and outlet to the Mediterranean; the stakes could not be higher for Putin, who is taking advantage of the vacuum left by US disengagement from the region.

Anonymous Saudi prince calls for removal of King Salman

An unidentified Saudi prince has taken the unprecedented step of publically calling for the removal of King Salman, citing the Hajj tragedies, gross mismanagement of the country’s finances (exacerbated by the oil crash), and the floundering military campaign in Yemen. While criticism of the royal family is usually the domain of exiles and jihadis, it is extremely rare for a prince to speak out.

In a series of letters published by British newspaper The Guardian, the prince is explicit in his demand for a palace coup. Calling on the oldest (Bandar) to the youngest (Muqrin) sons of Saudi Arabia’s founder Abdul-Aziz al-Saud by name, the letters are sure to cause alarm in Riyadh. Beyond identifying the offending prince, the priority for the Interior Ministry, headed by Crown Prince Nayef, is to ensure the stability of the throne, even as reports of King Salman’s declining health continue to filter out.

Al-Shabaab undeterred by AMISOM in Somalia

The counter-terrorism mission in Somalia against al-Shabaab is at a stalemate, as the terrorist group continues to stage attacks with impunity and the six-nation coalition operates in a reactive capacity. Somalian president Hassan Sheikh Muhammad claims that the jihadis have been removed from the towns in the sourthern portion of the country they used to control. But observers point out that al-Shabaab has staged attacks against AMISOM bases and even a suicide bomb attack at the presidential palace just weeks ago.

For its part, AMISOM has not adapted to fight a highly mobile opponent, staying in their bases as opposed to conducting air strikes and gathering real-time intelligence. The fact that the AMISOM coalition lacks a unified command is the most likely cause of the failure of the mission, since al-Shabaab can and is exploiting differences in tactics between the different national forces.

Mission to retake Kunduz from the Taliban gets underway

A day after the Taliban seized the first major city center since being ousted in 2001, the US has launched air strikes meant to dislodge them. Quickly moving to assert control, the Taliban has caused Afghan government officials to retreat to the airport. The Afghan government has moved troops outside the key northern city, preparing for street to street fighting backed by American air power.

Just by raising their flag over government headquarters, the Taliban has scored a short-term propaganda victory. As Iraqi forces have demonstrated in urban fighting against Islamic State in Ramadi and Tikrit, even with the assistance of U.S. airstrikes, the fight to retake Kunduz will test the resolve and capabilities of the Afghan National Army without the support of American ground troops.