Tag Archives: Russia

Taliban Seizes Kunduz, Shia Militia Frees Turkish Workers, Kurds in urgent need of economic support…

Threat Information Office Headlines 9-28-15

Taliban seizes Kunduz, Islamic State Launches attacks

The Taliban carried out one of the most serious security breaches in the 14 years of war yesterday, seizing the city of Kunduz, in Northern Afghanistan. Taliban forces reportedly freed hundreds of prisoners from a local jail, and forced Afghan forces to abandon their provincial headquarters. Videos reportedly show Taliban forces raising their flag over the city, while others show what is purported to be seized military equipment, including Humvees and tanks. The attack shows that the Taliban continues to achieve battlefield successes following the death of leader Mullah Omar last July.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State has been strengthening its insurgency against Afghanistan, launching a major attack on Afghan security forces yesterday, though IS has since been forced to retreat. Apprehensions are growing amongst plans to reduce US presence in Afghanistan, which will inevitably face increased pressure by the Taliban and other rebels, following U.S. withdrawal. Though the US international commander in Afghanistan has sent recommendations and risk assessment to the Pentagon and NATO, the Pentagon has not yet released any recommendations on how to modify the current strategy.

16 Turkish workers abducted September 2, 2015 in Baghdad reportedly released

One month after being kidnapped just outside Baghdad, 16 Turkish workers have been released, according to a recent online video, purportedly shot by the kidnappers. The kidnappers had previously communicated by online, with a video showing armed men shouting Shi’ite Muslim slogans capturing the workers serving as the initial evidence of the abduction.

On September 5th, the Iraqi military raided the Baghdad HQ of the Iranian-linked Katib Hezbollah over the abduction but the militia group denies its involvement and there has been no official confirmation of the identities of the kidnappers. The release of the hostages followed a deal to safely extract Syrian Shi’ite villagers who had been blockaded by Turkey-supported rebels.

Baghdad has struggled to contain the Shi’ite militias that make up the Popular Mobilization forces, which Iraq relies heavily upon in its fight against Islamic State.

Kurdistan Regional Government announces inability to respond to humanitarian crisis

The Kurdistan Regional Government has announced that “without a significant increase in funding from the international community and financial transfers from the Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Region will not be able to contain the humanitarian crisis, and faces exceedingly dire consequences.” KRG says they have been unable to maintain public services and provide basic needs for IDP’s, as the government of Iraq has been withholding 17% of their share of the annual budget.

The (KRG) has been dealing with a humanitarian crisis due to the influx of Iraqi refugees as well as Internally Displaced Persons (IDP). A World Bank report revealed that prices and unemployment have increased, while wages are decreasing due to refugees entering the labor market, and the Islamic State’s insurgency has been disrupting supply and transportation routes.

Historically the KRG has been anxious to highlight its role in supporting refugees and IDPs, particularly Christians and Yezidis, as part of its effort to win support from Western governments.

US Intel: Russian strikes in Syria imminent

A US intelligence assessment of the Russian deployment to Syria suggest a Kremlin project is under way to establish Syria as a satellite state by providing military dominance. The analysis, which was delivered to President Obama on the eve of his meeting with Vladimir Putin at the UN General Assembly, describes a Russian buildup of air forces, complemented by Russian drone surveillance flights in areas where IS presence is minimal at best. This report strongly contradicts Putin’s claim that Russian intervention in Syria is aimed at helping to combat the Islamic State.

The Russian Air Force deployment of surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles can be interpreted as a pre-emptive move to possible Western intervention to topple Assad, as the IS has no air force. While the US and Russia agree to talks in order to determine the degree of cooperation in Syria, as well as to avoid incidents, Russian air force planes continued to land in Syria over the past week, casting doubt on Putin’s intentions in the Levant.

New Chinese air-to-air missile has US Air Force concerned

As Chinese President Xi Jinping wraps up his US state visit and addresses the UN General Assembly, there is increasing concern in the American military over China’s expanding arsenal. USAF Air Combat Commander Gen. Herbert Carlisle noted last week that China’s PL-15 air-to-air missile is on par with the AIM-120, the USAF’s most advanced tactical aerial weapon. While the range and strike capability may be similar, it is the amount of missiles that may be loaded on a Chinese fighter jet that causes concern in the Pentagon. According to the article in The Daily Beast:

“China’s J-11 fighters—versions of the iconic Russian Flanker jet—could, with upgrades, haul as many as 12 missiles the size of the PL-15, plus two smaller missiles, for a staggering 14 weapons in total.

By comparison, the U.S. Air Force’s top-of-the-line F-22 in its normal configuration carries a maximum of six AIM-120 missiles and two shorter-range Sidewinders.”

While China continues its aggressive posture in the South China Sea and engages in constant cyber attacks against US targets, it is crucial to develop a coherent strategy to counter their expanding military capacity.

Son of US Army psychiatrist sentenced for terrorism recruiting in Texas

American-born son of a US Army doctor Rahatul Ashikim Khan was convicted and sentenced to ten years in prison for his active recruiting on online message boards on behalf of the Islamic State. Court records also show that he led a group in Austin, Texas, who pledged loyalty to former Taliban leader Mullah Omar. Arrested as he was about to board a plane in Houston to join IS, Khan was active in the “Authentic Tauheed” (“Oneness”) website chat room, where he encouraged others to wage jihad overseas.

Along with associate Michael Wolfe and similar cases in Miami and Chicago, the cases point to a growing trend towards radicalization among a subset of American Muslims, where technology facilitates the networking and plotting for jihad both here and abroad.

Other stories we’re following:

27 reported dead in Yemen air strike at wedding

New Israeli/Palestinian clashes at holy site in Jerusalem 

2 IS suspects killed, 3 arrested in Saudi security raid

France launches first airstrikes against IS in Syria

Number of killings/arrests increasing after Burundi President enters 3rd term 

3rd day of protests in Central African Republic ignited by murder of Muslim man

Woman uses fake papers to try to smuggle illegal aliens by airplane in Mexican border city

NSA to end bulk collection of phone metadata

Obama to meet Raul Castro at UN

Putin calls US support for Syrian rebels illegal, mocks efforts to topple Assad

Obama and Putin to meet at UN Gen. Assembly

Russia tests cruise missile banned under 1987 treaty

Putin to call for world alliance against ISIS at UN

Pentagon: US willing to work with Russia against ISIS as long as Assad is not involved

Obama and Jinping agree to combat cyber attacks

Jinping, Obama agree on climate change talks next year

Russia-Iran-Syria form Coordination Center, Cartels Seek Asian Expansion, Uganda Warns of Alshabaab threat…

Russians, Syrians, and Iranians setting up military coordination cell in Baghdad

Russian, Syrian, and Iranian military commanders have set up a coordination cell in Baghdad to begin working with Iranian backed Shia militias fighting the Islamic state. US officials say it is unclear if the Iraqi government is involved, but the cell includes Russian generals. Russia has been building up their support in Syria, worrying U.S. policymakers who fear it could have a destabilizing effect. Moscow has fostered ties with both the Syrian and the Iraqi government. The coordination comes after Russia has greatly extended its role in Syria, moving armor and fighter aircraft into the country to back Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. U.S. officials say the Russians successfully camouflaged the fighter jets by hiding them among the increased flow of cargo flights, beginning September 18th and 19th. Russian destroyers are also in position off the Mediterranean coast.

 

Mexican drug cartels interested in Asian markets

As wealth grows in Asia, so has the presence of Latin American drugs. Drugs represent a significant portion of the illicit economy, worth more than $100 billion a year in East Asia alone. As the illicit economy increases, so have seizures, with 254 million methamphetamine pills intercepted between East and Southeast Asia in 2013. In several Asian countries, smugglers run the risk of the death penalty. There has been a drastic increase in the demand for cocaine, with key suppliers coming from Mexico. In Asia, a gram of cocaine can sell up to three times the price it would in the US. The cartels are studying regional trade deals, like TransPacific Partnership, currently under discussion, in an attempt to find new routes in which to hide contraband. Police and custom officials in Asia currently lack the connections and intelligence necessary to defeat Cartel traffickers. An increase in communication and cooperation with American law enforcement and intelligence agencies will be necessary to combat the growing Asian drug market.

 

Uganda warns of possible al Shabaab attack

Ugandan police are warning the public to be careful flowing reports of planned attacks by al Shabaab on the country’s mosques, including ones in the capital, Kampala. Police say that they received word of the possible attack on Thursday during the Eid al-Adha holiday. The search for the group is still continuing, but the public is being warned to remain alert. The city is currently under increased police protection. Since 2010 when twin bombs killed 79 people, the country has frequently operated under threat warnings. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for those attacks, claiming that they were seeking revenge for Uganda’s deployment of troops as part of the AMISOM against Al Shabaab in Somalia.

 

Gunmen open fire on Burundi’s capital

An unidentified gunman attacked a police station in Burundi, marking the latest example of violence in the country that has been in political turmoil since April. The East African nation has been under various attacks following President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek a third term. The decision resulted in violent protests from opponents who say that he is constitutionally barred from another term. No one has claimed responsibility for the raid, with witnesses saying they began to hear heavy gunfire at 9 pm. The US and the EU have denounced Nkurunziza’s additional presidential term, saying the election was neither free nor fair.
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NSA Says China Encourages Cyber Crime

U.S. Hosts Chinese President for State Visit

Criticism grows over Hajj deaths

Saudi suggests pilgrims at fault over haj deaths

US jails German Ex-sniper over Liberia assassination plot

UN denies Ship seized in Kenya delivering weapons is illegal

South Africa recalls troops from Congo for misconduct

Kurdish sources say Iranian agent attempted to assassinate Kurdish leader in Kirkuk

Russian fighter jets enter Syria with transponders off

Ukraine bans Russian aircrafts as a part of war sanctions

Russia Announces Naval Drills in Eastern Med

Nigeria Issues Ban over Boko Haram, 25 Killed in Yemen Mosque Blast, Hamas Calls Day of Rage…

All forms of transportation banned in Nigeria to prevent Boko Haram attack

As of Wednesday evening, all transportation, including cars but also livestock including horses, donkeys, and camels, have been banned from entering Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state in Nigeria. This ban has been enforced with the intention of preventing a possible Boko Haram attack. The Muslim Eid al-Ahda holiday (Festival of Sacrifice) began Wednesday, creating a prime opportunity for the jihadists to carry out an attack. As of Sunday a Boko Haram attacks have begun in Borno, where 54 people died in a triple bombing. This is not the first time that the Nigerian military has been forced to ban transportation in the past.  Boko Haram fighters have repeatedly both cars and trucks but also horses and donkeys in their movement and to disguise explosives.

25 Killed in Yemen suicide bombing

An attack in Sanaa has left 25 dead and 36 wounded. The Islamic State has been said to have carried out the attack, which featured a suicide bomber, apparently disguised as a woman, entering the Shiite al-Balili mosque as worshippers were in their morning prayers. One bomber reportedly detonated explosives inside the mosque and as people fled, a second bomber set off explosives at the entrance. This is one of several times that Islamic State fighters have targeted Shiite Houthi mosques. While both Islamic State and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula routinely target Shia. While Islamic State prefers to focus on religious targets, while AQAP typically targets the Iranian-backed Houthi forces. Neither Jihadist force has been targeted by the Saudi-led coalition which is currently fighting against Houthi forces in Yemen on behalf of ousted president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who recently returned to Yemen from exile in Saudi Arabia.

The UN says that almost 4,900 people have died in Yemen due to Saudi-led coalition air strikes and fighting on the ground since March 26th.

 

“Day of Rage” called by Hamas over Al-Aqsa Mosque

Hamas has joined the Global Muslim Brotherhood in calling for a “Day of Rage” at the Al-Aqsa mosque. Israeli police barred young men from their prayers at the site. Police and the Palestinian protesters clashed over the sacred area for three days during this week’s Jewish New Year holiday. The police have limited the age of Muslim worshippers entering the Temple Mount area, allowing only men over 40 to enter, and women of all ages.  This restriction is aimed at keeping out the younger Palestinian males who typically form the backbone of the violent protests. Israeli officials are worried that as religious holidays continue, the trouble will increase. Prior analysis has shown that the Muslim Brotherhood and its Palestinian branch Hamas are highly effective at orchestrating protests, frequently violent, on their behalf, often on short notice.

 

Russia seeks UN approval for Middle East “broad-front fight”; announces naval drills; jets strike Islamic State

Putin visited the UN’s general assembly in an attempt to gain international approval for Russian military entrance into Syria, promoting a “broad-based counterterrorism fight.” U.S. diplomats immediately shut down the proposal. Russia has been working to gather a proposal that would include jets, airbases, and drones in Syria as part of a plan to bring stability to a strife-torn region and fight against IS. Facing resistance from the US and other nations, Russia agreed changed some of the provisions that would appear to grant U.N approval to Russian military action in Syria.

Russia has also announced that they will conduct “combat exercises” in the Mediterranean Sea. The US has continued to accuse Russia of a military build up in Syria. Officials say that there should be forty combat exercises in total taking place through September and October. The drills are likely to continue to increase tensions between Kremlin and the NATO military alliance.

The Russians have also given their jets to Syria to use in airstrikes against the Islamic State. Syrian forces used Russian warplanes to fight against IS insurgents in Northern Syria in an attempt to break a siege on a nearby airbase.  While the Assad regime has been criticized in the past for an apparent disinterest in targeting Islamic State forces, the most recent round of airstrikes, accompanied by ground attacks, are likely intended to reinforce Russia’s position that it is legitimately supporting an ally engaged in a fight against terrorism.

 

Fighter group Jaish al Muhajireen wal Ansar swears allegiance to Al Nusra Front

Jaish al Muhajireen wal Ansar (JMA), or “The Army of the Emigrants and Helpers,” has made a not-so-surprising move by pledging allegiance to a the Syrian branch of al Qaeda, the al Nusra Front. JMA is a declared terrorist organization by the State Department and is comprised of foreign fighters, often fighting alongside al Nusra as well as other al Qaeda-linked organizations in Syria.

JMA has recently undergone a power shift, with its emir, Salahuddin Shishani removed from his post in June. His replacement was succeeded by al Mu’tasim Billah al Madani, a Saudi sharia court judge and rumored ideologue in al Qaeda’s network. Al Madani is strongly opposed to the Islamic State, even contributing to a fatwa encouraging rebellion against Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and the Islamic State.

 

Chinese president Xi Jinping arrives in Washington as China continues military expansion

Reflecting the complicated and nuanced US-China relationship, Xi Jinping arrives for a state visit amidst tensions regarding cyber attacks and Chinese military moves in the South China Sea.  While Jinping has pledged cooperation with the US regarding cyber warfare, analysts point out that hacking attacks originating from China have increased since Jinping took office in November of 2012.  A pact that would establish definitions on what is and isn’t a considered a cyberattack remains in the negotiation phase, with the White House stated that a formal announcement is not imminent.

At the same time, concern is mounting in the military sector over China’s development of advanced weaponry, including a nuclear submarine that Pentagon analysts believe can carry missiles designed to strike anywhere in the US.  The JL-2 missiles, which have a range of about 4,598 miles, are the latest addition to an arsenal that already includes the so-called “carrier killer” DF-21D anti-ship missile.

 

Venezuela’s death spiral continues, Guyana latest target

As President Nicolas Maduro’s woes continue, Guyanese President David Granger has denounced “a persistence of aggressive behavior” towards his country, which borders Venezuela.  Guyana claims that armed Venezuelan vessels have violated its sovereignty, perhaps in a bid to assert control over waters in which Exxon Mobil is conducting oil exploration.  According to Maduro, a centuries-old land dispute between the two countries is being exploited by oil companies.  In response, the Venezuelan military has deployed troops in what it calls a simple military exercise.

This saber-rattling looks to be a reaction to the news coming out of Havana that the Colombian government is close to reaching a peace treaty with the narco-terrorist FARC.  As a staunch backer of the rebels, the Venezuelan government stands to lose if and when the guerrilla war in Colombia comes to an end. While the border crisis with Colombia concludes, Maduro seems desperate for a cause to rally his shrinking base as the parliamentary elections in December loom.

Other headlines we’re following:

Over 700 dead outside Mecca during annual haj pilgrimage

Syrian army bombs IS in Aleppo using Russian warplanes

Pentagon denies report that U.S.- trained rebels defected to al Qaeda

Iran develops recon drone, according to Tasnim news agency

Russia coordinates with Israel to prevent confusion in Syria

Group of nations seeks tribunal for Malaysia plane shot down over eastern Ukraine

Russia plans military base near Ukraine border

Putin to meet with Obama at UN next week

China to provide economic assistance after sanctions lifted

US: Chinese hackers took 5.6 million fingerprints of federal workers

Turkish strikes on Kurds, Egypt battles insurgents, Bin Laden bodyguard released, Europe drawing migrants from beyond Syria

TIO Headlines: September 23, 2015 

Turkish army launches airstrikes on Kurds in Iraq

Turkish jets targeted a Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant camp in northern Iraq, destroying munitions depots and caves, according to Turkish security forces. The Turkish army also claims to have targeted a facility being used for “education and logistics”.

Following the collapse of the ceasefire back in July, Turkey has regularly been attacking camps of the outlawed PKK. Over the course of the PKK’s three-decade insurgency, about 40,000 people have been killed. Turkish officials are also concerned about the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG), which is an armed wing of the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Turkey has asserted that the YPG has connections to the PKK, though State Department Spokesman John Kirby has announced that the United States does not consider the YPG a terrorist organization, and that they have actually proven effective in the coalition against the Islamic State in Syria.

Egypt’s military changes tactics against IS; Sisi pardons 100 prisoners 

Egypt’s largest campaign against the Islamic State (IS) in the Sinai Peninsula is easing, according to its military spokesman. The campaign, which began after IS launched an attack in Sinai and partially seized the town of Sheikh Zuweid, has reportedly been successful; destroying hideouts, and capturing or killing IS jihadists.

Meanwhile, France released a statement Wednesday announcing that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will purchase two Mistral warships. It has not been announced how much Egypt will have to pay for these vessels, which are capable of carrying 16 helicopters, 4 landing craft, and 13 tanks. These ships were originally to be sold to Russia; however France retracted the offer following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

The sale comes at a time when Sisi has also been under international pressure with Amnesty International accusing Sisi of human rights violations, in his efforts to suppress the Muslim Brotherhood. Amnesty has itself faced criticisms when it was revealed a senior Amnesty leader has MB ties. Still outside pressure was likely behind Egypt’s decision to pardoned 100 prisoners the day before the United Nations summit of world leaders. Among those released were Al Jazeera journalists which the Egyptian government credibly accuses of broadcasting false propaganda on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Former Bin Laden bodyguard released from Guantanamo

Veteran jihadist and former Osama bin Laden bodyguard Abdul-Rahman Shalabi has been released after 14 years in detention at the Guantanamo Bay facility and repatriated to his native Saudi Arabia.  A member of Bin Laden’s security detail since 1999, Shalabi had received advanced training from Al Qaeda camps, and according to other detainee statements, was slated to engage in a 1999 suicide hijacking operation over Southeast Asia.

Upon his capture by Pakistani forces in December 2001, he was transferred to Guantanamo Bay, where he was judge a high risk detainee.  He gained notoriety in 2005 for leading a hunger strike to protest his detention.  His release comes after his agreeing to enter a rehabilitation program in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi rehab program is highly controversial, and the Saudis claim a recidivism rate of 20%. In a September 2014 terror raid, the Saudis found 59 of the 88 people they arrested were graduates of the rehab program.

European free-for-all draws migrants from beyond Syria 

Following the news of the European Union’s agreement to distribute approximately 120,000 migrants  among 23 countries, it is now reported that migrants from places like Iran, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Somalia, and many other impoverished countries are seeking to blend in with the Syrians and gain resettlement in Europe.  According to the report from Vienna:

Swimming in the river of humanity are shady characters, too, admitted criminals, Islamic State sympathizers and a couple of guys from Fallujah, one with a fresh bullet wound, who when asked their occupation seemed confused.

Fallujah is presently under Islamic State control. However, Finn Borch Andersen, head of the Danish Security and Intelligence Service, is on record as saying that there is no evidence that jihadist groups are using the migrant routes to infiltrate fighters into Europe.  Of course, this directly contradicts multiple reports, and including statements by Germany’s intelligence chief, that the migrants pose an incentive for jihadi recruitment and radicalization.

Other stories we’re following: 

Kidnapped British women and her 5 children rescued, Insurgent group in Syria claims

“Moderate” US-trained rebels apparently give weapons to al-Qaeda in Syria

Taliban insurgency kills Georgian soldier in NATO attack, according to Georgian military

Burkina Faso civilian President Kafando restored following military coup

Kenya found weapons, drugs on Norwegian-flagged ship last week

Yemen’s President returns from exile in Saudi Arabia

US to decide whether to coordinate military action with Russia in Syria

Moscow believes chance of international agreement on Syria is high

Ukrainian president strong advocate of joining NATO

Putin inaugurates Moscow’s largest mosque

Some Russian soldiers refuse orders to deploy to Syria

Xi Jinping pledges cooperation with US on cyber crimes

Chinese fighter jets come dangerously close to US surveillance plane

Foreign media welcome in Beijing, but restrictions remain

US may be ready to challenge South China Sea claims

Malaysia arrests 6 allegedly part of human trafficking network and involved in bombing last month

Video shows gunmen with abducted foreigners; escape to mountains in Philippines

Turkey funds Syrian rebels, German intel on migrants, Somali attack, Pro-Russian Ukraine rebels, US-trained Syrian rebels

TIO Headlines 9-22-15 

Turkey increases funding for Al Qaeda-Linked rebels

After its leadership was eliminated in an Islamic State bombing attack a little over a year ago, Syrian rebel group Ahrar al-Sham is back in a major way.  Replacing its command structure and appointing a new emir, it has fought and gained control of territory in Syria, even controlling the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey.

Ahrar Al Sham fights closely with Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra, and was co-founded and led by Al Qaeda leader and Zawahiri associate Khalid Al-Suri before his death in 2014.

NATO ally Turkey has increased its commitment to the jihadist group, appointing it as its negotiator in the event of ceasefire talks, which have already collapsed twice.

German intelligence adds twist to migrant crisis

German police raided eight properties in Berlin, acting on information that those residing there were providing assistance to jihadists in Syria.  This development follows the statement by Germany’s domestic intelligence service the BfV (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) that up to 700 Germans have left and joined the Islamic State. BfV also believes that there is increased potential that “radicals” could target “unaccompanied young refugees” for indoctrination and recruitment.  Germany has a sizable Salafi community, and German IS members have already threatened future attacks.

Al-Shabaab suspected of car bombing near Somali presidential palace

Following the conclusion of a conference debate on the Somali presidential election next year, a suicide car bomb exploded outside the gates of the presidential compound, resulting in six casualties, including a Turkish national.  While no group has claimed responsibility, al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab is widely suspected, as Al-Shabaab has orchestrated a series of car bombings against political figures, foreign diplomats and popular hotels in recent months. There is speculation that the attack may have been targeting a UN convoy that was seen leaving the palace, as well as presidential guards posted nearby.

NATO Chief: Russia still arming Ukrainian separatists despite ceasefire

As the media has focused on Russia’s escalation of involvement in Syria, it appears that Russian President Vladmir Putin is taking advantage of the diversion to also increase support for Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.  In a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that “Russia continues to support the separatists, provide them with weapons, with different kinds of equipment, training, forces.”  For the moment, Russia is keeping a low profile and has not responded to the accusations, ahead of Putin’s address to the UN General Assembly next week.

US-trained Syrian rebels arrested, then released as allegations of betrayal surface

In the continuing debacle that are US efforts in Syria, it is now being reported that approximately 75 members of the US-trained “moderate” rebel force Division 30 were arrested by elements of a coalition of Syrian Islamist rebels known as the Shamiyya Front soon after entering Aleppo province from the Turkish border crossing.

Initial reports state that Shamiyya Front troops were confused as to Division 30’s identity and allegiance. Other reports say that the 70 rebels of Division 30 reportedly surrendered to Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra shortly after crossing the border, handing over equipment and weapons. Additionally, Division 30 Chief of Staff Col. Muhammad Daher has apparently resigned citing problems with recruitment and training efforts. Daher’s resignation may lend credence to reports of continued problems with the U.S.-backed force.

China moves, Israel & Russia meet, Iran inspections, Syrian rebels

TIO Headlines: September 21, 2015

U.S. Seeks Accord on Cyber, Backed off on South China Sea

On the eve of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s state visit come reports that the US and China are negotiating a cyber attack peace agreement in which each country promises not to be the first to strike at the other’s critical infrastructure via cyber warfare. As both countries routinely engage in cyber attacks against each other, there is no current international agreement that adequately defines what sort of incident is considered a cyber attack.

This move  comes as China asserts its increasing dominance over Asia, seemingly with the tacit permission of the US. Assistant Secretary of Defense David Shear told a Congressional committee, that the US Navy has not sailed or flown within the 12 nautical mile limit of Chinese artificial islands in the South China Sea since 2012.  Failing to enforce freedom of navigation in the area may result in the de facto acceptance of China’s sovereignty aims over that body of water.

Meanwhile, as U.S. Asian allies, including Japan move to increase their security, the US appears to be prepared to welcome Chinese expansion in Central and South Asia. China is preparing to protect its vast economic interests in Pakistan and Afghanistan, even participating in Afghan peace talks it had once shunned. If China is successful in linking the vast oil and gas reserves in Central Asia to the Indian Ocean, it is likely that the US may have spent spending billions of dollars in Afghanistan only to secure China’s influence in the region.

Israel skeptical of Russian moves in Syria

Israel has been largely overlooked when gauging responses to Russia’s expansion of its military forces in Syria. While Israel has remained publicly neutral in the conflict, it has repeatedly struck at Hezbollah targets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to present his concerns over the Russia presence in Syria.

Israel is rightly concerned about the prospect of Russian weapons and equipment flowing to Hezbollah, who also fight on Assad’s side. Furthermore, the fact that Iran is also deeply involved in the civil war and is Hezbollah’s chief patron cannot be taken lightly by the Israelis.

Iran collecting environmental samples without UN inspectors

Environmental samples such as soil, air, and dust from equipment were collected by Iranian nuclear experts at Parchin military base, according to Iran’s atomic energy agency spokesman. According to Western diplomats, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors were supposed to be present while the samples were taken. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) insists that all regulations were. Deputy IAEA Director General Tero Varjoranta was quoted as reassuring that the sampling procedures were followed, as there was video monitoring, GPS tracking, and risk assessment at the time of the collection. That the Iranians would be permitted to provide their own samples from Parchin was one of the “secret side deals” not included in the text of the Iran deal provided to Congress, but concluded during negotiations in Austria.

75 US-trained rebels enter Syria and Syrian regime carries out attacks on IS

75 US-backed Syrian rebels have reportedly entered Syria through Turkey, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Just days after US General Lloyd Austin reported that only a handful of US-trained rebels remained, more rebels returned to Syria in 12 vehicles equipped with machine guns. Previous efforts to introduce U.S. backed Syrian rebels have met with failure, when force came under repeated attack by Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al Nusra.

The Syrian army is taking action of its own, carrying out at least 25 air strikes Saturday on the ancient city of Palmyra, which is currently held by the Islamic State (IS). This is the second bombardment by the Syrian military in the territory. According to the Observatory, 12 IS members were among the 26 killed. The Syrian regime forces also fired missiles on the city of Aleppo Monday, in which control is currently divided between the government and opposition. At least 18 civilians were reportedly killed in the attack.

Other news we’re following:

US to accept 100,000 refugees by 2017

Former lieutenant of Osama bin Laden killed

55 Kurdish rebels killed in Turkish airstrikes, according to Anatolia news

56 Syrian regime forces killed in mass execution this month

Americans, Saudis, Briton released by Yemen’s Houthi group

Burkina Faso coup leaders agree to return to democracy

Al-Shabaab threat causes evacuation of 20,000 in Kenya

5 killed in suicide bombing in Cameroon

54 killed in Boko Haram attack in northern Nigeria

Russian foreign contacts cause suspicion

Fighter jets latest addition to Russian arsenal in Syria

Russian hackers using multiple techniques to attack US networks

Putin orders ground troops into Syria

US-Russia Military Talks on Syria, New York Man Arrested Joining IS, Pakistani Taliban kill 16…

US and Russia begin Military talks on Syria; Russian troops fear involvement

Secretary of State, John Kerry has announced that the US is prepared to engage in military to military discussion with Russia about Syria. Kerry says the purpose of the talks will be to discuss options for a political solution to Syria, while continuing the Obama administrations goals of defeating the Islamic State. Kerry will also be meeting with the British foreign secretary and then will travel to Germany for discussions focused on the Syrian crisis. In addition to propping up Assad, Russia does have an interest in dealing with Islamic State, particularly since nearly 2,400 Russian fighters have reportedly joined the Islamic State.

In recent weeks, Russia has been upping its support for President Assad by deploying weapons and personnel to Latakia, Syria. On Sept. 5th, Kerry warned the Russian foreign minister that the Kremlin should not expand its support for the Syrian government, which could fuel Syrian conflict. The Russian foreign minister has said that they are willing to coordinate with the Pentagon to avoid “unintended incidents.”

The presidential Human Rights Council has reported that they have been contacted by some members of the Russian military claiming that they were told they would be headed to fight “somewhere hot.” The council says it has received messages from worried soldiers and family members that they might be sent to Syria. The US has expressed concern over a Russian military build-up near Latakia. Russia is building an airbase there, but it is unclear if Russian troops are directly involved in the Syrian fighting.

New York man repeatedly tries to fly to the Middle East; tweeted with ISIS

A New York man, Ali Saleh, 22, faces terrorism charges after attempting several times to fly to the Middle East to join Islamic State. He appeared in Federal court on Thursday and is being held on bail. Authorities say that Saleh was providing material support to the terrorist organization.

It is alleged that Saleh has contacted Islamic State facilitators about joining before making several attempts to board flights between August 2014 and September of this year. A few days before his first attempt at boarding a flight, Saleh tweeted “I’m ready to die for the Caliphate, prison is nothing.” The Islamic State’s supporters view it as the revived Caliphate, with its leader AbuBakr Al Baghdadi the legitimate caliph.

Saleh tried on several other occasions to leave for the Middle East, attempting to board flights in Newark, Philadelphia, and Cleveland. Authorities say that Saleh maintained that he would have continued to try and leave the country had he not been arrested.

Gunmen kill at least 16 people in an attack on Pakistan airbase

Dressed in police uniforms, gunmen stormed the Badaber air base in Pakistan on Friday morning killing sixteen during morning prayers at a mosque inside the compound. The Pakistani Taliban has taken credit for the attack. The gunmen entered the base at two points and then split into groups.

While Pakistani security officials say thirteen of the intruders were reportedly killed the Taliban maintains only one of its fighters died. The Pakistani military reports another 29 people were injured. The airbase provided residential housing for military members. Pakistani Taliban spokesman said a suicide unit carried out the attack. It is the first on a military target since a Pakistani navy ship was attacked last September by jihadists linked to Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), formed last year. During that assault Al Qaeda was able to utilize Pakistani naval officers who defected from the national military.

Other Stories We’re Following:

Mexico arrest Guerrero gang leader; key figure in disappearance of 43 students

6 injured Mexican tourists returned from Egypt following accidental attack by military

Japan passes security bill

Burkina Faso’s interim President freed

Half a million children have left Boko Haram over 5 months

Kenya seizes ship transporting drugs

Russian cyber-espionage campaign uncovered

Cybersecurity researchers in Finland have recently identified a Russian hacking group carrying out attacks on foreign governments and other organizations for over seven years. F-secure lab reports that cyberattacks were launched to support Russian intelligence gathering using malware to infiltrate computer networks and steal information. The malware has been reportedly used before, but this report is being considered the most definitive evidence that the Russian government is supporting the attacks.

The well-resourced Russian hacking group known as “the Dukes,” have targeted government institutions and political think tanks in the US, Europe, and Central Asia. The Dukes campaigns utilize a “smash and grab” approach. F-Secure described the method as a “noisy, fast break in”, and then the extraction of as much data as possible. If the data proves valuable, the group will then switch to a more exact and strategic method.

The first known campaigns began in 2008, with targets including the Ministry of Defense in Georgia, and the ministries of foreign affairs in Turkey and Uganda. F-secure believes that “the Duke’s primary mission is to be so valuable to their benefactors that is continuation outweighs everything else.” Some of the group’s operations have been uncovered before, however it was difficult to link them to the Russian government.

Although The Dukes have targeted governments all over the world, they have not been reported to have ever attacked the Russian government. Artturi Lehtio, F-secure’s researcher headed the investigation stated, “the connections provide evidence that helps establish where the attacks originated from, what they were after, how they were executed, and what the objectives were. And all signs point back to Russian State sponsorship.”

In April, Russia launched cyberattacks on the White House network, and the State Department reported that its computers had been targeted as well. Over the summer, the US admitted to being hacked again on the Pentagons’ joint staff email. While, F-secure does not directly implicated the Dukes in leading these attacks, they do believe that they represent possible perpetrators.

The group has been linked to the attack in October 2014, when hackers breached the email system of the Executive Office of the President. This hack broke down the system for months and was successful in accessing some non-classified information such as President Obama’s schedule and some emails. While Kaspersky lab, which is known to be close to Russian intelligence, said in July that 50 percent of all malware attacks come from Russia, F-secure has spent the last seven years confirming the links between these hacks with the Russian government.

Russia’s ability to utilize outside hacking groups in order to conduct state-sponsored cyber-espionage helps to provide Moscow with an added layer of plausible deniability, and waiting for the years it make take to secure absolute assurance of Russia’s involvement makes a swift and coherent response from the U.S. difficult.

Senate Hearings Reveal Confusion in plan to counter IS/Russia in Syria

Buried under the incredulous headlines (‘that’s a joke’ quipped Sen. Kelly Ayotte when informed that just four or five US-trained Syrian troops are currently fighting IS) is the fact that with a little over a year after President Obama declared that the objective of Operation Inherent Resolve was to “degrade and destroy” the Islamic State, the mission still lacks a coherent and defined strategy to achieve that goal.

Although both CENTCOM Commander Gen. Lloyd Austin and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that progress is being made against IS, the changing realities on the ground point to a looming potential disaster in the long term.

To start, the recent news that Russia is expanding their presence in Syria from an advisory and armament supply role to active participation in the civil war on the side of Bashar al-Assad has the potential to escalate the cold war-like conflict between Moscow and Washington. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) questioned whether Russian aircraft pose a threat to coalition flights and what our response would be, to which Gen. Austin replied that while there is concern for such an event, the current policy is to avoid those encounters, since there are no rules in place as of yet with regards how to deal with Russian forces on the ground, because the Russians have not yet initiated military operations.

Not only is this a very dangerous situation for US pilots to be in, the lack of a response will only embolden Vladimir Putin, as he fortifies Assad’s positions. While some analysts say that this is a defensive posture in light of Assad’s loss of territory against both the al-Nusra front and IS, others say this is just the beginning of a large-scale effort to take the fight directly to the jihadists.

Then there is Iran. Awaiting its financial windfall after sanctions are lifted, Ayatollah Khamenei has dispatched Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani to Moscow in order to coordinate their efforts to back Assad. While both Russia and Iran back the Syrian ruler to the hilt, the US engages in double-speak with regards to his regime: First, Ms. Wormuth states that he still commands the most powerful military force on the ground and faces no imminent danger. Then, she says that the best solution is his removal from power while maintaining Syrian government institutions.

At the same time, Gen. Austin pointed out that the only way Assad comes to the negotiating table is if he feels that he is under mortal threat. While our stated goal is the removal of Assad from power in order to facilitate a political solution, the focus of the operation remains IS only. Confusion and contradictions between words and deeds have never won wars; a lesson Iran and Russia know only too well.

Under questioning from Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), Gen. Austin was unequivocal in his claim that Iran can not be a partner against IS, since they have no productive role in the conflict. What about Russia? The Senator did not follow up with that question and we are only left to wonder, since Putin publicly claims he is intervening to help an ally fight terrorism.

With regards to actual air operations, the revelation that there are no actual forward air observers on the ground in Syria is startling, as the reliance on remote air operation centers restricts target acquisition, especially in IS-held fortified areas.

In the hearing that followed, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations asked foreign policy experts Dr. Kimberly Kagan, Mr. Brian Katulis, and Mr. Michael Bowers for their analysis of the US role and strategy in the Middle East. To put it blunty, both short and long-term outlooks are bleak.

Dr. Kagan described the Islamic State as operating in three spheres: internally in Iraq and Syria, outwardly in the historical caliphate lands of Islam, and externally into the US and Europe. She also maintains that currently, the main parties in Syria (Assad, Iran, jihadists, and other rebels) do not want a political solution. They are all concerned with preserving their position. Her concluding opinion is that there will not be a political solution until there is security on the ground, which is a long way off.

For his part, Mr. Katulis stated that many of the other countries in the coalition have not made degrading and destroying IS their priority, even the US, as we gave priority to the Iran nuclear deal while IS seized territory and cities like Palmyra in Syria. For example, a directly affected country like Turkey worries more about Kurd separatists than the jihadi threat next door. Furthermore, according to him, we are reacting in ad hoc fashion to their very effective social media campaign and our narrative is a piece by piece response to their atrocities with no concrete results.

Finally, Mr. Bowers weighed in on the migrant issue, stating that the US can and should do more to resettle them here. In his estimation, every worst-case scenario since the start of the Syrian civil war has come true: increased jihadi activity, breakdown of the Syrian state, and foreign intervention.

Both of these hearings highlighted the fact that our counter-terrorism strategy in general, and against IS in particular, lacks direction and a clear, defined objective. From Russia catching us by surprise to IS fulfilling their objective of remaining and expanding, the need for clarity in our efforts is critical.

Russia and Chinese expansion, Nigeria fights Boko Haram, France and Australia strike IS

Russia’s moves put the US in a box

Reading the White House’s dithering over the Syrian dilemma as total confusion, Vladimir Putin has positioned troops and naval forces in Assad’s Alawite stronghold of Latakia, under the cover of helping an ally fight terrorism. Putin is determined to salvage his only Mediterranean port at all costs. Russia continues to coordinate with Syria’s other patron, Iran, with IRGC Quds Force Commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani reportedly in Moscow for a second time in as many months, violating a UN travel ban. Russian adventurism will place greater strain on the upcoming military budget for FY16, as the Pentagon seeks to increase funding for all military branches to counter Russian expansion in the Levant.

Putin has also used Russia’s seat on the UN Security Council to block sanctions against South Sudanese rebel leaders, where fighting continues despite the peace deal signed last month. A crucial U.S. ally, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is under U.S. pressure to keep the ceasefire at all costs, another example of how U.S. allies find themselves at a disadvantage against Russian proxies.

China’s expansionism making its neighbors nervous

China continues its aggressive moves in the South China Sea.  Recently, Vice Adm. Yuan Yubai told a joint US-China military forum that the South China Sea, “belongs to China’. Beijing appears to have begun construction on yet another airstrip in the disputed islands.  This development is viewed with alarm by the Philippines, which worries that it would place the Chinese military within striking distance of Reed Bank, where Manila is exploring for oil and gas.

Japan is also concerned by the prospect of Chinese expansionism, so much so that it has offered naval equipment, including patrol boats, to Vietnam, another claimant in the South China Sea. These developments are sure to be on the agenda next week as Chinese Premier Xi Jinping makes a state visit to Washington. The long announced, but so far undelivered U.S. ‘pivot to Asia’ may be the driving force behind Beijing’s effort to fortify “facts on the ground” in its stated sphere of influence.

Nigerian army rescues women and children from Boko Haram, no Chibok schoolchildren

Nigerian forces cleared a Boko Haram camp in Borno state, where they rescued a dozen women and children, but none of those recused were from the 2014 kidnapping of Chibok schoolchildren. It has been reported that these girls have now been turned into Boko Haram fighters. Boko Haram has killed around 400 civilians in northern Cameroon since January 2014. Additionally, Amnesty International reports that dozens more have been killed in Nigeria security response, due in part to deteriorating prison conditions.

France and Australia launch airstrikes inside Syria

Australia’s Royal Australian Air Force launched three airstrikes against the Islamic State on Monday, destroying a crude oil collection point and an armored personnel carrier. Australia has launched airstrikes against IS for about a year in Iraq, however these are the first strikes targeting forces in Syria. France has also announced that it will begin airstrikes in Syria due to concerns over the rapid expansion of IS in Syrian territory and threatening Western-supported Syrian rebel forces. French officials remarked that these strikes will be carried out independently of U.S. command.

Other news we’re following:

Russia

With Ukraine in stalemate, some Russian rebel leaders return to Moscow

DNI Clapper: Russian hackers gained access to electrical grid

Russia declines to help OPEC increase oil prices

Middle East

At least 20 killed in Syrian rebel attack in Aleppo

At least 54 Yemeni’s killed in Saudi-led airstrikes against Houthi’s, according to Houthi-run news network

Assad: West to blame for refugee crisis

12 Killed in PKK bomb attack, clashes in Turkey

Pentagon’s Inspector General to investigate Centcom and apparent manipulated IS progress reports