Tag Archives: Taliban

The Afghan army may not be capable of combating Islamic terrorism on its own.

On March 8th, four Islamic State terrorists attacked a military hospital in Kabul killing over 30 people and wounding over 50. The group included two suicide bombers who detonated upon entering the hospital. The attack lasted several hours and it was not until mid-afternoon that Afghan forces were able to begin clean-up operations.

The IS attack on a military hospital, which is located in Kabul’s heavily guarded diplomatic center and near two civilian hospitals, shows that the Afghan army will likely be unable to defeat the Islamic terrorists alone in the foreseeable future.

IS began operating in Afghanistan in 2014 when members of Pakistan and Afghan Taliban began pledging allegiance to the organization. This occurred the same year that the U.S. and NATO officially ended the ISAF combat operations in the country.

The Islamic State has successfully carried out attacks on politicians, sectarian demonstrators, and foreign consulates. They have also been in constant conflict with the Taliban whose members have been carrying out their own terrorist attacks.

Since NATO combat operations ended the number of attacks has risen. Most of these attacks have been perpetrated by the Taliban. The jihadists have gone so far as to attack NATO military bases still in the country, with one such attack at the Bagram air-base last year killing 4 soldiers.

The NATO troops that were attacked in Bagram were part of “Resolute Support.” The alliances new Afghanistan mission, provides security assistance and training to Afghan forces. The mission suffers from endemic problems within the country’s armed forces however. This is most visible in problems with the military supply chain where corrupt practices have left soldiers with little to no access to water, food, or ammunition.

The corruption within the Afghan army has made it difficult to supply the army with the necessary equipment and hindered combat operations to the point where U.S. troops had to be deployed.

In the Helmand province the fight against the Taliban has been stymied by corruption among high ranking Afghan commanders. The corruption made it difficult to supply troops and led to desertions. U.S. responded to the developments in Helmand by sending around 300 Marines to help the Afghans fight back the jihadists in January, 2017.

This may not be enough because as of November 2016 Taliban controlled much of the Afghan countryside while the Afghan army is holding onto the cities. The USFOR-A (The U.S. army command in Afghanistan) report from August, 2016 the Taliban controls only 8 of the country’s 407 districts downplays the groups influence in rural areas and portrays only the best-case scenario.

Additionally, the Taliban was able to launch assaults on Afghan cities like Kunduz and cut off all roads to Maidan Wardak (a provincial capital near Kabul) in November, 2016 further showing the group’s ability to project their influence.

To keep Afghanistan from completely falling apart U.S. troops would probably have to be redeployed into combat missions in the near future. The U.S. troop surge from 2009 to 2012 saw American forces defeat the Taliban in their strongholds of Helmand and Kandahar while making the country more secure.

Given the success of the Afghan surge a similar mission could be launched, but this time it would likely have to be followed by restructuring the Afghan army and government. Since corruption permeates all levels of government and the military replacing just a few politicians and generals will not be enough. The problem is so endemic that the structure will likely have to be rebuilt from the ground-up.

This could take time, would face heavy opposition from the local population and would likely lack much political support in the United States., if Afghanistan is to have a military capable of suppressing the Taliban and maintain control of the country the entire institution needs substantial rebuilding..

 

 

 

 

 

IS Claims Responsibility for Bombing on Afghan Supreme Court

Twenty-four hours after the February 7th deadly suicide bombing on the Afghan Supreme Court in Kabul, the Khorasan Province of the Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack. IS identified the bomber as Abu Bakr al-Tajiki, a Tajik national according to the SITE Intelligence Group. IS warned that “more devastating and bitter” attacks on Afghan courts and judicial staff members were to come in a statement released Thursday. The IS presents an ever growing threat and a rival to the Taliban.

As workers were leaving the parliament complex around 4pm, the suicide bomber entered the court’s parking area and detonated his suicide vest near an entrance where guards were performing security checks. Local police reported that 20 people were killed and 45 others were wounded in the explosion.

IS announced its expansion into Afghanistan in January of 2015 and has since secured footholds in at least four districts in the Nangarhar province. Initially, IS faced armed resistance from both the Afghan troops and the Taliban but in recent months their number of attacks has risen exponentially. IS increased its number of deaths and injuries from 82 in 2015 to 899 in 2016.

This increase in attacks can be credited to the fact that in mid-2016 IS altered its tactics and, according to the UN, “increased [its] ability to conduct large, deadly attacks against civilian targets in Kabul.” Last July IS carried out the first of four attacks on civilians in Kabul – a blast that targeted a Shia Muslim protest. The first three attacks all targeted Shia Muslims and the final attack targeted the Presidential Protection Service.

The Supreme Court bombing is the second major attack by IS on Kabul. The previous attack, deemed the deadliest attack since the Afghan war started in 2001, was in July 2016. IS triggered two explosions at a rally organized by the Shiite Hazaras that killed 80 people and wounded another 231.

An entire day passed before IS claimed responsibility for an attack that resembled previous Taliban attacks on Afghan judicial institutions.

Since the beginning of 2015 the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has documented 74 attacks on judicial authorities in Afghanistan by the Taliban. These attacks have resulted in death of 89 judges, prosecutors, and judicial staff members and 214 injuries.

The attacks in 2016 followed the execution of six convicted Taliban militants last May. Among those sentenced to death by the Afghan government was one of the top facilitators for al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Anas Haqqani.

The Taliban attempted to thwart the executions by releasing a hostage video to the American and Canadian governments of Canadian Joshua Boyle and his American wife Caitlan Coleman. They urged the American and Canadian governments to pressure the Afghan government to release the captured Taliban fighters.

President Ghani maintained his tough stance and continued with the executions despite the pressure from the Taliban.

Shortly after the executions, a suicide bomber targeted a bus carrying court employees killing 11 people in an act the Taliban called revenge.  Just one month later, in June of 2016, Taliban gunmen killed seven people, including the newly appointed chief prosecutor, in a court building in the eastern Logar province.

Just last month the Taliban also claimed responsibility for the twin bombings of government workers outside parliament – this attack killed 30 and injured 70 others.

The UN reported 2016 the bloodiest year for Afghan civilians since the war began in 2001. The Afghan government stresses that is important that judicial members are considered civilians and thus these attacks are on civilians.

This rise in casualties is credited to the Taliban’s slow gaining of ground across the country. The Afghan government currently controls no more than two-thirds of the country and about half of that area is hotly contested. Until recently, the Islamic State (IS) was a relatively minor faction in Afghanistan.

Since establishing itself in early 2015, IS has been fighting the Taliban for land and influence. In June of 2016, both groups claimed responsibility for an attack on Kabul that left 14 dead. The presence of IS in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s opposition to IS present complications for the US in fighting IS in the war in Afghanistan.

Why is Pakistan failing to combat Islamism?

On the outskirts of Pakistan’s capital Islamabad a shrine to Mumtaz Qadri, an assassin of the Pakistani governor and lawyer Salman Taseer who was defending a Christian woman Asiya Bibi accused of blasphemy, is being built. Once completed the shrine will include a mosque and an Islamic school.

The complex is being funded through donations. The fact that there is enough people willing to donate to fund a large shrine to an executed killer is indicative of the increasing strength of Islamist sentiments in Pakistani society.

The construction of the shrine coincides with an upsurge of protests by clerics in support of the country’s strict blasphemy laws. The four days of protests ended when the government promised not to amend the statues. This approach to Islamists is mirrored in the Pakistani army and government.

In the past three years Pakistan’s army under Gen. Raheel Sharif has claimed to be successful in decreasing the number of people killed by terrorist attacks from 5,379 in 2013 to 1,720 in 2016 and restoring order to Pakistani cities. However, Sharif failed in eliminating the heads of Taliban and Al-Qaeda who are still hiding in Pakistan. While their groups shifted their operations into Afghanistan increasing instability there. Gen. Sharif’s actions might be part of Pakistan’s deliberate strategy to destabilize Afghanistan.

Kabul had just started to take control of the country and now it faces a new wave of jihadists in its tribal regions. So while Afghanistan has to deal with renewed insurgency, in Pakistan Gen. Sharif enjoys immense popularity.

While in the east of the country Pakistan’s army has actively abetted activates of Islamists groups like Hizub-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) in their fight against the Indian army in Kashmir. JEM has been implicated in the bombing of a Pathankot Air Force Base in India. This caused India to retaliate with surgical airstrikes, which have undermined Pakistan’s army policy in the region. The civilian government has tried to use this as an excuse to wrestle the Kashmir policy out of the army’s hands.

Besides allowing Islamists to operate in the country’s border regions Pakistan’s military has also permitted them to infiltrate their intelligence service, the ISI. Its intelligence officers have been providing financial aid and training to Taliban fighters. While on the front lines ISI officers have tipped off Taliban fighters to U.S. air-strikes so they could escape.

On the civilian front things are not much better. The government under Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has done little to stop the growing influence of Islamic parties. Instead, he has actively abetted the Islamists with his secular Pakistani People’s Party (PPP) entering a coalition with the Islamic Jamaat Ulama-e-Islami (JUI) party after the 2013 elections. However, such a move was unnecessary because the PPP won a decisive majority and did not need a coalition partner.

Islamic terrorists are also gaining more influence in the government. In the border province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa the HUM was able to get its political wing, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), to enter a governing coalition with other religious parties.

The HUM’s leader Syed Salahuddin has ties with Islamic terror groups like Lashkar-al-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. So JEI allows Salahuddi to wage jihad on the ground in Kashmir while trying to implement Islamist policies through legal means in the government.

What is perceived as a failure to adequately tackle Islamic extremism is a deliberate policy on the part of Islamabad to maintain influence in the region with the use of jihadists as proxy forces. By pushing the Taliban into Afghanistan Pakistan makes sure that its neighbor remains unstable and will not be able to threaten Islamabad’s standing.

Pakistan also has interests in keeping the conflict in Kashmir going. Since independence Islamabad has claimed that the Muslim majority states of Jammu and Kashmir should be part of Pakistan. However, these regions are administered by New Delhi, which considers them part of India. The two countries have fought inconclusive wars over the region in the past, but the situation has become complicated since both became nuclear powers in the 1990s. So the Pakistani military decided to utilize jihadists as proxies in order to exhaust the Indian army and eventually drive them out of Kashmir.

This support of Islamic terrorists to achieve geopolitical objectives does not come without a cost. The recent Indian surgical air strikes show that New Delhi will not stand by while Pakistan’s military continues its support for jihadists. While on the civilian side the HUM has its own political party, which it uses to push Islamic policies in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

If Pakistan continues its jihadi friendly policies relations with India will likely continue to deteriorate and Islamic parties will continue gain more power. By accommodating jihadists in exchange for their help Islamabad might be sowing the seeds of its own downfall.

 

Taliban Offensive Repulsed, Threat Continues

October 3rd the Taliban took over the town of Nawa in the southern province of Helmand in Afghanistan after successfully detonating an improvised explosive device contained with a Humvee. After several hours of fighting Taliban forces gain controlled over Nawa by approximately 8:00 am local time.

The same day Kunduz, a northern province, was attacked in a raid by the Taliban. According to reports Afghan forces never allowed the Taliban to gain full control over Kunduz but police headquarters and other government areas were compromised.

Both Kunduz and Helmand are provinces with significant Taliban activity, their mission to gain territory in Afghanistan.

In early August of 2016 the Taliban took control of Nawa, including districts buildings and the management of national security building. By mid-August the Afghani government reentered the city and took back control.

In August 2016 the Taliban had control over 10 of the 14 Helmand’s provinces. Now they control 5 of the 14.  Helmand is a very significant territory as it is the main location in the country for the production of opium.

The fall of Kunduz in 2015 represented significant capture of an urban center, it was their first city seizure during the last 15 years of war. However, this successful advance did not last after the Taliban faced heavy US airstrikes, permitting the Afghan government to retake Kunduz within 15 days.

Press reports from Afghanistan as of October 4th indicated that Nawa remained contested. supporting Afghan forces in Helmand and Kunduz. The Afghani military forced out the jihadi group out of Kunduz’s center with the help of US conducted airstrikes.

With President Ghani’s new financial aid of $3 billion and international support against the Taliban, it remains to be seen what their next move will be. Even with the most recent offensive blunted, the Taliban will continue to launch attacks in these areas.

Multiple Bombs Strikes Kabul While Taliban Threatens Blood Shed

On Monday there were a series of  three bombings in Kabul, Afghanistan. The first two explosions were carried out near the Afghan Ministry of Defense and later that evening a third device went off in a residential neighborhood nearby. Taliban openly claimed responsible for the first two attacks but no group has yet laid claim to the third attack.

Around 3:30 pm local time, a bomb went off near the Ministry of Defense, according to defense ministry spokesman.  A Taliban official claimed that the initial blast was a remote-detonated device which was followed by a Taliban member. Afghan police say the bomber was wearing a bomb vest and an Afghan National Army uniform.

The third attack took place Monday night, around 11pm, consisting of a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) and was followed by gunfire. The explosion targeted Shar-e Naw, a residential neighborhood not far from the Afghan Ministry of Defense. After the blast, three gunmen barricaded themselves in an office complex where government officials and Care International personnel work. The gunfire did not stop until Tuesday morning, when Afghan Special Forces killed the gunmen. The number of causalities is only 1 with 6 wounded, at this site. The death toll from all three bombings is 35 people and 103 wounded.

As the capital and largest city of Afghanistan, Kabul has a high attack rate and this past year they have been hit hard.

April 19th Taliban carried out a truck bomb attack leaving 64 dead. June 20th a Taliban suicide bomber attacked a capital bus killing 23 people, including 14 Nepali Security Guards and Canadian embassy workers. On June 30th suicide bomber targets a bus carrying police cadets, once first responders came to the site a second bomb was detonated, leaving at least 30 dead and 50 wounded.

In the series of attacks that have hit the country, many of the targets have been personnel in uniform and military and government installations. With many of the Taliban members imprisoned the targets intensify.

Anas Haqqani and Qari Abdul Rashid Omari have been imprisoned since 2014. Anas Haqqani and Omari are both important figures in the Haqqani Network. Anas Haqqani is the brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is the leader of the Haqqani, and the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the founder of the Haqqani Network. Anas’ role was to fundraise for the network. Omari also comes from a jihadist family. His brother, Mohammad Nabi Omari, was one of the five prisoners at Guantánamo Bay in the exchange for the American soldier Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. Omari was the network’s military commander for southeastern Afghanistan, meaning he choose targets and provided resources to bombers.

Since their imprisonment, both have been sentenced to death. The Taliban have tried to pressure the Afghan Government by releasing a video of American and Canadian hostages.      On Monday the Taliban increased their rhetoric, warning that “blood will be spilled” if Anas Haqqani is executed.

Even while the Taliban increases its rhetoric over captured prisoners, they aren’t letting the loss distract from their continued efforts. Early Thursday the jihadist group launched an offensive to take control of Tarin Kot, the capital of Uruzgan province in southern Afghanistan.

Anas Haqqani and Omari imprisonment may add rhetorical fuel to the Taliban’s fire, but the Taliban continues to advance its broad strategic agenda; a few prisoners does not change that.

Taliban Threatens Hostages as Key Leader Faces Afghan Death Sentence

On August 30th a Taliban hostage video intended to persuade the American and Canadian governments to pressure the Afghan government not to execute Taliban prisoners went viral. The video does not appear to have altered the stance of the Afghan government however, and is unlikely to dramatically affect the ongoing 15-year long Afghan conflict.

In 2012, a Canadian man, Joshua Boyle, and his American wife, Caitlan Coleman, were traveling the Warduk region of Afghanistan, when they were captured and held hostage by the Taliban. The couple had been on a globetrotting journey, and passed through Russia, as well as central Asia, before entering Afghanistan.

The Taliban recently released a video of the two, the first time in three years there has been any sign of the couple. In the video they urge the American and Canadian governments to pressure the Afghan government to cease upcoming executions of captured Taliban fighters.

A second video that has not yet been released reportedly shows the couple and their two sons, both born in captivity, according to sources speaking with the Daily Beast. The video has not gone viral, was reportedly intended to demonstrate that the family is safe and together.

The use of hostage videos from the Taliban is common, but this recent video can be viewed as response to recent Afghan government actions.

On April 19th, the Taliban conducted a large-scale attack in Kabul, Afghanistan’s largest city, killing 64 people. That led the Afghani President Ashraf Ghani to end an amnesty program for the Taliban and their affiliates, and a promise to execute those involved in terrorism.

Among those imprisoned is Anas Haqqani, the brother of Siraj Haqqani, commander of the Haqqani network which is closely affiliated with Taliban, and is also a top facilitator in Afghanistan for al Qaeda.

It’s likely that the video release was intended to influence Anas Haqqani’s sentencing, but on September 3rd Haqqani was sentenced to death by an Afghan court.

The President Ghani was not fazed by the Taliban’s effort to pardon their affiliates. This toughened stance comes in the time that the Taliban are seeking to gain new and more authority.

In the 15-year long insurgency against the U.S. supported government, the Taliban have remained a powerful and effective competitor. Last year the group’s financial resources were measured at between 500 million and 2 billion dollars, the majority of which comes from the cultivation, processing and transport of narcotics, including as heroin and hash. The Taliban also profits from the smuggling of drug processing components and chemicals. Despite worldwide financial sanctions, the Taliban also continues to receive monetary contributions from other Islamic groups outside Afghanistan. Support also comes from the Persian Gulf region, including supporters in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 when it was toppled by the US for providing refuge to al Qaeda after the 9/11 attacks. Taliban maintains a strong presence throughout much of Afghanistan, retaking substantial territory since the drawdown of U.S. and allied forces. While  about 9,800 US troops remain in country to assist the Afghani military, they have faced restricted and byzantine rules of engagement. The troop numbers are scheduled to drop to about 5,500 troops by the end of the year, which can be expected to further affect the Afghan government’s ability to defend from Taliban attacks.

With President Ghani’s denial of pardon for the Taliban prisoners and the death sentence of Anas Haqqani, it remains to be seen how the Taliban will respond. With the Taliban in Afghanistan’s strong presence, and the Afghan government signaling that it does not intend to back down, we can expect to see the Afghanistan war continue to rage even as U.S. troops prepare to depart.

Taliban Attempt to Siege Kabul’s North Gate Hotel

On Monday August 1st, an Afghan compound used by US military contractors was rocked by an explosion from a large truck bomb. The event occurred at the North Gate compound on the outskirts of Kabul at around 1:30 a.m.

Promptly following the detonation, two gunmen attempted to breach the compound. According to Kabul police chief Abdel Rahman Rahimi, the two gunmen failed to force their way into the resort and instead took up station in a nearby house. Gunfire and other explosions followed the truck bombing for several hours until the both of the attackers, in addition to one police officer, were killed in the combat.

Reports from several witnesses illustrated the massive size of the explosion, one that shut down power in sectors surrounding the compound and shook several buildings. An individual interviewed by the BBC illustrated the size of the initial explosion by claiming that it was the largest he ever experienced. The witness added that the compound was likely attacked due to the leniency of the Afghan police force on checkpoints during the later hours of the night.

Commonly known as the Northgate Hotel, the Kabul compound is utilized as a housing complex for visiting foreign security contractors. Many who attend the hotel are known to provide logistical support to the Afghan military and other security organizations. Despite the level of security at the North Gate and the importance of those who stay there, the Taliban have previously been able to conduct several attacks on the compound, such as their assault on the facility in 2013, in which seven contractors were killed.

According to Afghan security officials however, no contractors staying at the compound were injured during the attacks on Monday.

Proceeding the bombardment and subsequent assault on the North Gate hotel, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack in an online statement. The terrorist group cited the facility as a target because it is a “place of vulgarity and profanity” for foreign “invaders” who must leave Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Afghan security forces have responded to the terrorist acts by closing roads near the base and launching an operation to clear the site.

One week prior to the Taliban bombing, Kabul faced its deadliest attack this year in which two suicide bombers linked to Islamic State killed 80 people and wounded 230 others. The bombing took place during a protest in the city center that targeted civilians from the Shiite Hazara minority. The Hazara ethnicity has a long legacy in Sunni-Shia conflicts both in Afghanistan and Syria. The IS bombing can be viewed as  both an attempt to bring the Afghan theater into the wider Sunni-Shia conflict and to extend the borders of its jihadist front, a strategy Islamic State has followed in other areas where it needed to compete with established Sunni jihadist groups.

Conversely, the Taliban’s assault on the North Gate hotel likely indicates that it views targeting civilians as currently unnecessary. As the Long War Journal has noted, the Taliban is selective about targeting civilians and while it has a code of conduct which largely precludes civilian targeting, it ignores these restrictions when there are concerns regarding loss of influence or control over territories to the Afghan government. The Taliban’s adherence to targeting security forces can thus serve as an indicator of how the Taliban views its position vis-à-vis challengers.

Taliban Suicide Bombings Illustrate Terror Influence as Ramadan Comes to an End

The Taliban conducted sequential suicide bombings on an Afghan military convoy and its first responders on Thursday, June 30th.  The attacks occurred in the western outskirts of Kabul, where buses were carrying newly graduated cadets back into the city after completing training.

In the company area of Kabul City near the neighboring Wardak province, a single suicide bomber targeted police busses filled with recently graduated Afghan police recruits. Twenty minutes after the attack, a second terrorist detonated a car bomb, specifically targeted the first responders on the scene.

In an online twitter statement, a Taliban spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, claimed that his notorious terror group had coordinated the attack.

Following the attacks, the U.S. Embassy in Kabul condemned the terror group’s operation as a “cruel and complete disregard for human life during the holy month of Ramadan….”

In total, the Taliban suicide bombers claimed the lives of over thirty people, both security personnel and civilians, while wounding another forty.

The Taliban have conducted several mass casualty operations in 2016, one of which occurred ten days prior to the June 30th bus bombing. Many of these large scale attacks on Afghan and other security forces and officials is part of the major Taliban operation, codenamed “Operation Omari.” The operation is named after former Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, who was killed back in July 2015. Following his death, the group announced that it would be using suicide bombers to target both Afghan and foreign forces and that the group is backed by “thousands of fully armed martyrdom seekers”

The rise in Taliban attacks during June is not surprising to some analysts who have seen similar actions in the past; however, the success with which the group is having with its operations is in fact concerning.

In addition to these Taliban attacks, Afghan authorities have began engaging in combat with Islamic State in the east of the country. The extension of the jihadist group’s battlefield into Afghanistan occurred in the last year, and the group was reported to have little to limited success in the country.

Statements from Afghan President Ghani in March outlined the defeat of the group and their quelled existence in the eastern region; however, some individuals dispute the President’s claims regarding the lack of progress of IS in Afghanistan. Notably, the Daily Caller outlined the increase in former Taliban militiamen taking up arms for Islamic State. Such actions have not been uncommon among Taliban leaders, who have faced numerous issues due to fragmented control over the Afghan-based group in the last year.

The solidification of security in Afghanistan has long been a U.S. project since its intervention in the country back in 2001. After ousting the Taliban regime, United States forces have been working endlessly to establish a democratic form of government that is able to secure its borders and the civilians in them. Yet, after fifteen years of troubleshooting, the United States has began to draw back its influence in the country and its attempts to aid in maintaining security.

Presently, one of the talking points set to be discussed during the NATO Summit this July is the involvement of the United States and other countries in Afghanistan. NATO plans to meet in Warsaw in the coming weeks to discuss the future of Afghan support, which has been previously coordinated through the Resolute Support Mission, a program designed to assist, train, and advise Afghan security forces. Ultimately, the program that was instituted in 2015, aims to remain in place until beyond 2016, with funding continued until 2020.

Additionally, the efforts of The Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) to end sectarian and insurgent fighting in the country have lead to proposed peace deals with jihadist groups and former Taliban allies. China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States have aimed to open up cease-fire discussions with a number of terrorist and sectarian groups, including the Taliban. Such conciliatory efforts were made to Hezb-I-Islami in May of 2016, and no discussions have been had so far with the Taliban, after the group declined several invitations.

Between efforts to decrease US and foreign military involvement and proposals for peace-talks in which amnesty concessions are given, the United States’ hand in Afghanistan appears to be a rather mixed  and contradictory approach to increasing security and combating terrorism. These efforts, in addition to the recent threat and surge of Islamic State forces in the region, only appear to stagnate the process of government building, self-sufficient security, and the larger effort to rebuild the broken Afghan state. Come July 8th, NATO has a significant discussion on their hands with regard to the future of Afghanistan, as the Taliban’s consistency to maintain influence has proved unwavering.

Taliban Appoints New Leader

Early on the morning of May 25th, Taliban leadership acknowledged the death of their premier leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansour. The announcement occurred after both US and Afghani officials claimed that the high-profile terrorist leader had been killed by a U.S.-led drone strike in Pakistan.

In addition to releasing information on the death of Mansour, senior Taliban figures also announced the appointment of Hibatullah Akhundzada as the official leader of their organization.

There is speculation on his age, but Akhundzada is thought to be around fifty-five years old and have lived in Afghanistan almost all of his life. Alongside Mansour and other Taliban figures, Akhundzada was involved in the Islamist resistance against the Soviet military campaign in the 1980s. Akhundzada also joined other Taliban leaders in the government after they took power in 1996.

After the US-led coalition in 2001 ousted the Taliban government, Akhundzada became head of the group’s council of religious scholars and reportedly ran a religious school near Quetta. Despite his proclaimed longtime residence in Afghanistan, Akhundzada is known to have ties to the Quetta Shura, the highest Taliban leadership council, located in Quetta, Pakistan.

Political commentator Gharzai Kwakhogi worked under the Taliban for some time and stated that, “[Hibatullah Akhundzada has lived most of his life inside Afghanistan and has maintained close links with Quetta Shura,” a group known for running operations in southern and western Afghanistan.

Since the fall of the Taliban government, Akhundzada has been known as more of a religious leader than a military tactician. Despite being a member of several military councils for the group, Akhundzada was mostly responsible for issuing the Taliban’s fatwas – important religious decrees or opinions handed down by an Islamic religious leader.

Most recently, Akhundzada served as deputy to previous Taliban chief Mansour.

Taliban senior figures claimed Mansour directly named the high-ranking cleric, Akhundzada, as successor in the his will. Taliban sources similarly cited this as the reason for their unanimity in electing Akhundzada to power; though, these claims could be an attempt to legitimize such a crucial transition of power.

Attempting to take advantage of the change in Taliban leadership, the Afghan government has offered Adhundzada an opportunity for prospective peace negotiations.

Javid Faisal, a deputy spokesman for Afghanistan’s chief executive, urged Akhundzada to join peace-talks in a statement on Wednesday, declaring that “political settlement is the only option for the Taliban or new leadership will face the fate of Mansour.”

Prospective peace settlements appear unlikely for Akhundzada or the Taliban.

His recent appointment appears to be an effort to more greatly unify Taliban forces as divisions in recent years have set the group back, while reports of retaliation following Mansour’s death appear imminent.

Al Jazeera news agency cited an anonymous Taliban source as stating, “They [the foreign forces and Afghan government] should now fasten their seat belts as the attacks will continue and will be stronger than before… We will be taking our revenge and will also make sure we come out stronger than before.”

It appears that Taliban forces have already began such attacks. During morning rush hour on Wednesday, May 25th, a suicide bomber targeted a minibus carrying court employees in Kabul. Statements released by the Taliban said that the bombing was retaliation for “the killing of six prisoners” early this month. At the time of the executions, President Ghani said that he approved of the hanging of the six terrorists who perpetrated grave crimes against civilians and security personnel.

Ultimately, Akhundzada’s appointment is only meant to strengthen the Taliban’s jihadist movement, an objective that is opposed to any current peace offering. It appears that peace in Afghanistan will remain elusive and Afghani officials will likely have little choice but to pursue a long-term resolution through military action.

 

U.S. Drone Strike Kills Taliban Leader

Early on the morning of May 23rd, President Obama reaffirmed  earlier reports from the Afghan National Security Directorate (NDS) that Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour was killed in an airstrike in Pakistan on Saturday, May 21st. Following the positive identification of Mansour by U.S. officials, President Obama stated that the death of Mansour was “an important milestone.”

Mansour’s rule highlighted many prominent successes not seen by the organization since 2001. Under Mansour, the Taliban primarily engaged in a combination of suicide bombings and militia led attacks throughout Afghanistan. His reign lasted from 2015 onward, with his most notable victory coming after taking control of the northern city of Kunduz for a brief four-day period.

Beyond his conquests around the countryside, Mansour’s notoriety as leader derived from his frequent and brutal attacks in Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, where he primarily coordinated suicide bombing in civilian dominated areas along with attacks on several government buildings.

The Taliban’s top leaders have yet to report the death of Mansour; however an alleged meeting took place on Sunday, May 22nd, to discuss the framework of the council’s leadership, possibly in the wake of Mansour’s death.

The most likely prospective successor to Mansour is Sirajuddin Haqqani. Haqqani has long been linked to the al-Qaeda Haqqani Network, a subgroup of the Taliban,  and currently has a five million dollar U.S. bounty on his head.

Haqqani is one of several men thought capable of succeeding Mansour’s role as leader of the Taliban. Among them is the son of the Taliban’s founder as well as its former leader, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob. Mansour officially replaced Yaqoob’s father, Mullah Omar, in 2015 after Omar was killed in a U.S.-led bombing in 2013.

Another contender for the position is former Guantanamo detainee, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir. United States security officials are familiar with Zakir after he was freed from Guantanamo Bay’s detention center in 2007 and sent back to Afghanistan. There, he rejoined the Taliban as a strategic commander of southern Afghan operations and has since held a leadership position on the group’s elite council.

Regardless of who takes power of the terrorist group, Afghan and United States’ officials are hopeful this most recent killing will push the new Taliban leader closer toward a peace settlement. President Obama, speaking at a press conference in Vietnam, outlined how Mansour had “rejected efforts by Afghan government to seriously engage in peace talks,” and that “the Taliban should seize the opportunity to pursue the only real path for ending long conflict.”

Despite these diplomatic comments, experienced analysts of the Taliban like Long War Journal are skeptical of the prospects of a peace settlement, especially if Haqqani takes helm of the jihadist organization. What is certain though, is that the new Taliban leader will have significant impact on any prospective cease-fire as well as the future security of Afghanistan.