Tag Archives: U.S.

U.S. Targets IS in Libya Despite Ongoing Unity Talks

A U.S. airstrike targeting a major Islamic State (IS) operative, Noureddine Chouchane, may have killed upwards of 40 IS trainees in Sabratha, Libya. It is currently unconfirmed if Chouchane was among the dead.

Chouchane was a Tunisian operative of IS working out of Libya. A Western official claim reconnaissance of Chouchane’s location suggested he was involved in training recruits for what appeared to be an attack on a foreign target. The airstrike targeted a barn that is believed to have been used as the trainees’ barracks.

Aside from training foreign recruits, Chouchane was believed to have helped organize two major attacks in his home country, Tunisia. The first attack last March on the National Bardo Museum in Tunis killed 20 to 22 people. The second attack, last June, targeted a Beach Resort in Sousse killed 39.

IS has begun to establish a highly effective branch in Libya amid infighting between the Libyan Dawn, factions which seized control of the capital of Tripoli and claims political authority and the internationally recognized government in Tobruk. IS has proven to be a thorn in the side of both, as they have launched attacks on Tripoli as well as government oil terminals.

IS has established a stronghold in the towns of Sirte and Sabratha. They have held territory in the towns of Derna, Benghazi, and Ajdabiya.

The growing threat of IS has not gone unnoticed, with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates  launched successful airstrikes against IS positions in February 2015. The strikes were later criticized for the high collateral damage against Libyan civilians.

While Egypt and the U.A.E. targeted fighting positions, the U.S. has predominately targeted key terrorist leaders in Libya, both Al Qaeda, and Islamic State. Last November, U.S. launched an airstrike killing the IS leader in Libya, Abu Nabil.

The U.S. has been considering increased military action for some time. The Guardian reported on photos of U.S. Special Operations Forces in Libya who were reportedly on the ground to make contact with Libyan militias in order to determine whom to work with against IS within the divided country.

The two governments in Libya are currently engaged in talks that would unite the government. The self-proclaimed government in Tripoli ousted the legitimate government in August 2014 after losing the democratic elections. The UN has been brokering a unity agreement that would reunite these two governments, but it may be a dangerous move.

Two of the current leading parties in Tripoli, Justice and Construction Party and the Loyalty to Martyrs Bloc, are dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. This becomes dangerous when there is rumors of a potential cooperation council between the Muslim Brotherhood, IS, and Al Qaeda within Libya. Also, Libya Dawn, the government in Tripoli’s military arm, is allied with Ansar Al-Sharia, AQ’s Libya branch.

The U.S., Egypt, Turkey, Germany, Russia, and China along with 16 other countries have signed an agreement to cut off aid to militias who do not support the deal.  The U.S. and Egypt do not want to pledge significant military support against IS until the government unites, yet IS may be gaining a position in the government if the mega-merger takes hold.

IS has been able to extend its reach all through North Africa. It is believed they have recruited upwards of 7,000 Tunisians to the fight in Syria, and these recruits are more than willing to come back home to fight. The vast numbers that IS can pull from has made targeted killings less effective.

Libya serves as a major hub for recruit training and transport of fighters throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Allowing any terrorist organization to maintain their stronghold would pose significant threats to neighboring countries, Europe, and the Middle East.

While the death of Chouchane may serve as a major morale boost for Libya and foreign governments fighting IS, it is unlikely to have any major impact on IS operations.

Ankara Bombing Sparks Turkey to Increase Attacks Against Kurds

On Wednesday, February 17, 2016, a car bomb detonated besides a convoy transporting Turkish military personnel killing 28 and injuring another 61 in Ankara. The next morning another military convoy was attacked in Southeast Turkey killing six.

Soon after the bombings the Turkish government accused the Kurdish Democratic Union Party’s (PYD), a Syrian Kurd rebel group, military wing, the YPG, of being behind the attacks. The Turkish government alleges the bomber was Salih Necar, a Syrian national whom the Turkish government says had ties to the YPG.

Reuters spoke to a co-leader of PYD, Saleh Muslim, who denied any responsibility to the bombing. The Syrian Kurds have been heavily preoccupied with their fight in Syria, and have not, or have rarely, been involved in Turkey.

Soon after the attack, Turkey began bombing Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets in Northern Iraq. The PKK is a Turkish Kurd group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Turkey. The PKK also denied any claim to the attacks.

The PKK has been engaged in a brutal war with the Turkish government since 1984. The PKK has sought out an independent Kurdish state within Turkey, and the resulting conflict with the government has killed over 40,000 people. In 2013 a ceasefire was reached between the PKK and the Turkish government, but it was abandoned after the government began airstrikes against Kurdish positions in Iraq.

Turkey has been the target of recent bombings from not only Kurdish rebels, but also the Islamic State (IS). This past January, an IS suicide bomber killed ten in Istanbul’s historic district. The attack prompted Turkey to launch airstrikes against IS held territory in Iraq and Syria. Even though IS has been active recently, it does not seem they have been considered by the government as a possible suspect.

Four days ago Turkey began shelling YPG positions in Syria. The YPG has been close to controlling the Azaz corridor which would cut off the supply line from Turkey to Syrian rebels in Aleppo.

If the YPG are able to take control of Azaz it would unify Kurdish-held territory in Northern Syria and potentially provide access to the Mediterranean, making an autonomous Kurdish state all the more viable.

The Free Fire Blog discussed Turkey and Saudi Arabia considering entering ground troops in the Syrian war, and the recent bombings would provide impetus for Turkey to intervene more aggressively.

While Turkey openly opposes the Kurds in Syria, the U.S. and Russia has been aiding the Kurds fight against IS. The U.S. has provided military aid to the Syrian Kurds, while Russian airstrikes have paved the way for the Kurds to take rebel controlled territory.

The U.S. has called on the YPG and Turkey to halt hostilities to focus on IS, but it is unlikely Turkey will cease its shelling of YPG targets as long as Azaz is in danger.

The recent bombings have given the Turkish government an excuse to increase attacks on Syrian Kurds to protect its border region and attempt to forestall a Kurdish state. This increased aggression puts the U.S. in the difficult situation of whether to continue support of the YPG, who have been one of the most effective group against IS, despite hostilities from their NATO ally.

SAMs in the South China Sea Will Extend China’s Regional Control

In a recent move to step up control over the South China Sea, China has moved Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) on to Woody Island, part of the Paracels Island Chain. The island has been Chinese-controlled since 1956. Taiwan and Vietnam also have made their claims of control.

China has not denied or admitted the presence of SAMs on Woody Island, but only claimed China has had defenses on the island for years.

$5 trillion in trade every year go through the South China Sea, making it a vital Asian trade route. While numerous different island chains and reefs have been contested for years, China has ramped up its militarization of the region in the past 18 months.

Over the past year and a half China has drastically increased its construction of artificial islands, and has pushed itself further into contested areas. China even went as far to build on top of a reef already claimed by the Philippines in the Kalayaan islands. While Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Philippines have all constructed artificial islands; none matches the intensity of China’s effort.

China’s artificial reefs are becoming home to expanded airstrips for use with military aircraft. By expanding their military across the region, China will be able to dictate trade routes and who can trade. With no other nation being able to challenge the Chinese, they would simply have to play by China’s rules.

Aside from islands and reefs, the South China Sea is home to a plethora of natural resources, especially natural gas and oil. Securing the majority of these reserves would allow China to exercise greater energy independence and possibly become more involved in the oil market.

China has been rapidly militarizing over the past several years, and not just in the South China Sea. China’s military spending is suspected to reach up to $145 billion, a 10.1% increase from the previous year.

The U.S. has voiced criticism of China’s South China Sea activities many times, and has been patrolling the area to ensure the freedom of navigation. China’s foreign ministry has claimed its island construction will not interfere with the freedom of navigation or overflights, yet U.S. planes have been warned to divert their course when flying near the islands.

China’s placement of SAMs suggests they may be prepared to enact an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea, similar to the ADIZ they enacted in the East China Sea November of 2013. The danger in China establishing an ADIZ in the South China Sea is they would be establishing its borders far larger than the internationally recognized border.

The U.S. further tested China when it sailed a warship 12 miles off the coast of Triton Island, a Chinese controlled territory in the Paracel Island chain. While China did not engage the ship they warned the U.S. of future maneuvers that may provoke conflict.

Yesterday, Gordon Chang, a writer for Forbes and Daily Beast, was a guest on Secure Freedom Radio. Chang emphasized that the U.S. must work closely with regional countries to counter China. If the Chinese are able to get away with this, other nations around the world may try to close off their waters to trade. However, Chang was skeptical that any action the U.S. and regional countries take would drastically alter China’s behavior.

As China’s influence throughout Asia continues to grow and despite U.S. announcements of a “pivot to Asia” in 2011, U.S. ability to project power in the region remains on a decline. As a result, it’s likely China will continue to act to advance its South China Sea policy relatively unhindered.

Massive Military Exercise May Point to a Saudi Intervention in Syria

This week the Saudi government is drawing from 20 nations to launch the largest ever military exercise in the region, North Thunder. The drills participants will be drawn from member states of the Saudi-led “anti-terror” coalition the Kingdom established two months ago.

The Saudi government has staged large military exercises in the past, but it seems each year these exercises grow larger. With the Saudi government concerned with threats from their southern and northern borders, they now need to project an even stronger presence in the region.

Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Al-Asiri claims the exercise is intended to “enhance fighting abilities, increase coordination between countries participating in the exercise, and facilitate the exchange of information and experience.” The drill may be about more than improving cooperation for counterterrorism however.

The Saudi government has actively opposed the Assad regime, and has aided rebel groups for several years now. But Syrian rebels are continuing to lose territory to Syrian military forces backed by Iranian and Russian assistance.

Taken together with reports of the Saudi aircraft arriving at Turkish base of Incirlik and discussion of a possible Turkish and Saudi ground intervention, and the military exercise could be seen as a show of force to Syria and its allies Iran, Russia, and Iraq.

While the Saudis say any potential intervention would be aimed at Islamic State, the Guardian quoted Saudi Foreign Minister, Abdel al-Jubeir, saying Assad’s removal was necessary to defeating the Islamic State (IS). If the Saudi government and its coalition engage Assad’s forces, it could severely escalate the conflict and possibly start a major war throughout the Middle East.

Aside from the large military exercise, Turkey has been actively attacking Syrian Democratic Forces (made up primarily of Syrian Kurds) through airstrikes and artillery in the past weeks

The Syrian Kurds have primarily targeted Islamic State and Syrian rebel groups they accuse of being allied with Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al Nusra.

The Kurds have seen recent successes with the help of Russian airstrikes, and are closing in on an effort to join Kurdish held territory around the city of Afrin to the Kurdish held Hasakah province.
Doing so would block off the crucial Azaz corridor, which is the Syrian rebel force in Aleppo’s only means of resupply from Turkey. Aleppo currently faces a siege from Assad’s forces.

While Saudi Arabia and its coalition continue to escalate their military preparations, the U.S has pushed heavily towards peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition forces, and just last week the International Syria Support Group agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria, but both Russian airstrikes and Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions continues.

With Saudi-supported rebel force in dire straits, States opposed to Assad, including Saudi Arabia, find options other than direct intervention dwindling. Saudi Arabia is traditionally considered to be highly reluctant to intervene directly, but the changes to their relationship with the United States, and their recent intervention in Yemen may represent a changing calculation. If so the upcoming military exercise could be a harbinger for a more robust Saudi intervention policy.

Russia Continues Push to Remove U.S. Influence from Middle East

Reuters reports that Russia is ready to send civil airliners and continue to provide military aid to Iraq to fight the Islamic State (IS). This comes at a great detriment to the U.S. who may lose vital influence in the Middle East.

Russia has been providing financial and military aid to Iraq for several years, but it now makes a major commitment to Iraq when the Assad regime looks prime to take back Aleppo, a major rebel stronghold.

Russia had been a long time supporter of the Iraqi government. Russia signed a treaty of friendship with Iraq in 1972 because of Iraq’s size, strategic position, and oil, and this relationship continued well into the Saddam years. The Washington Times reported that Russia may have been tied to moving Iraqi arms to Syria before the U.S. intervention in 2003, and between 2008 and 2011 Bagdad purchased up to $246 million dollars of military aid from Russia.

Russia has been engaging more with Iraq in support of its intervention in Syria. This past September Russia entered into a four-way intelligence sharing agreement between themselves, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Aside from intelligence, Russia has provided military aid such as jets, military experts, tanks, artillery equipment, and armored vehicles to Iraq.

Russia has no vital interest in the region. They have no ports in the country like they do in Syria, nor do they have any military bases. Russia’s interest in Iraq lies primarily in weakening U.S. influence in the region. The U.S. was providing large amounts of military aid to Iraq, and Russia does not want to see that relationship grow any further.

The U.S. has spent up to $20 billion in military equipment and training for the Iraqi military. The U.S. has also sent ground troops and advisors to combat IS. However, this aid has not been enough to gain Iraq’s support.

Iraq has criticized the U.S. for being too soft on IS and terrorism. The Iraqi government believe the U.S. was not moving fast enough against IS, and they wanted to see greater results. This claim of being too slow comes at an even greater detriment when the Assad regime has made up significant ground in three months with the help of Russian airstrikes. The Iraqis may see the Russians as the answer to defeating IS, and the U.S. will continue to lose any influence in the region if they cannot prove they can provide valuable support against IS.

CBS News reported last October that U.S. officials have told Iraqi leaders to choose a side, Russia or the U.S., and it’s increasingly clear that the Iraqi governments ties to Iran and Russia trump those with the U.S.

Russia continues its support for a Shiite axis (Iran-Iraq-and Syria), and it has created a commanding influence in the Middle East. The U.S., on the other hand, has continued to alienate its longtime allies in the region, in part through the misguided effort to secure an Iran nuclear deal.

U.S. Conditions IS Libya Fight on Unity Government

February 2, 2016, Secretary of State John Kerry met with officials from 23 nations in Rome to discuss combating IS. Secretary Kerry addressed his growing concerns of the Islamic State’s (IS) presence in Libya especially. The growing fear is that the terrorist organization will take advantage of the lack of stability to control oil fields to further finance its operations.

Libya has been in turmoil since the NATO-backed ousting of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi, in 2011. The Libyan government is currently split between an internationally recognized government in Tobruk, the General National Congress (GNC), and an unofficial government in Tripoli led by the Islamist Libya Dawn faction. Libya Dawn was able to force the GNC out of the Tripoli in 2014, and the international community has been working ever since to unite the two governments.

Libya Dawn and the GNC signed a UN-brokered agreement to unify the government last December. However, it is unclear what Libya Dawn hopes to get out of the agreement, as it was their decision to attempt to seize power following election losses that led to the current fissure.

While the Libya Dawn government may claim they want to end hostilities and unite the government, it’s likely just a play to regain power.

Libya Dawn is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, and the enemy of the El-Sisi government in Egypt. This had led to the decision by Cairo to fully back the GNC and openly opposed any agreement that would return the Islamists to legitimate political power. Egypt has been the driving force behind Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s anti-Islamist “Operation Dignity” campaign which has seen battlefield gains against the Islamist factions.

IS has become a growing concern to North African nations. The Free Fire Blog recently discussed the growing connections between the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and IS’s growing trade network with Hamas in Gaza. In Libya, IS has taken control of Sirte, a city that links east and west of Libya, and has launched numerous attacks around the country.

International Business Times reported last year of IS threatening to wage war on Libya Dawn, but those hostilities may subside while both sides are being targeted by Egyptian and UAE airstrikes.

Breitbart News reports on troubling news of possible cooperation  between IS, Al Qaeda (AQ), and the Muslim Brotherhood within Libya. This merger would threaten any chance Libya has at stability, and if the Brotherhood were to take over, it would further threaten the neighboring government of Egypt.

Libya’s hopes for stability are quickly fading, and the Obama Administration may be apart of the blame. The Obama Administration allowed for weapon shipments to be sent to armed rebel groups during the uprising against Qaddafi. Some of these weapons fell in the hands of jihadist groups which allowed them to fight for control of Libya once Qaddafi was killed.

While the U.S. initially armed rebel groups, it has taken a step back from Libya. Instead, the Obama Administration has harshly criticized those who take part in Libya’s issues through violence, especially the UAE and Egypt. It seems ironic for the Administration to criticize others for trying to stop terrorism when they were the ones who facilitated it.

Libya’s stability is crucial against the fight against terrorism. Terrorists have been smuggling fighters through Libya to Europe and Syria. Libya is also an important connector between Islamic State’s home base in Syria and it’s efforts in West Africa. Without a stable government to prevent this, it will continue to threaten the stability of the region.

While Secretary Kerry may be worried about IS in Libya, there must be a greater focus on the wider Islamist threat to the country. The Muslim Brotherhood poses just as large a threat to Libyan stability as IS, and if they are given any political legitimacy it will only serve to expand jihadist activity in the country. Despite the Obama Administration’s insistence to the contrary, a GNC victory over Libyan Dawn would have a better impact on security than enforcing upon Libya a unity government that neither side really wants.

Yemeni Civil War Provides Perfect Cover For AQAP Expansion

Reuters reports that Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) has reclaimed the Yemeni city of Azzan. AQAP reestablished control of the town after being ousted by local tribesmen and armed residents loyal to the government in May, 2012.

By taking Azzan, AQAP adds to the territory it controls in Yemen. The Long War Journal reports that AQAP controls the Shabwa, Abyan, and Hadramount provinces. The group also secured several neighborhoods in the city of Aden, an important port city and the new home of the Yemeni government.

Azzan served as a major commercial city to Yemen. It also serves as a crossroads between Aden and the oil and gas-rich Hadramaount province, where another major port city Mukalla, also controlled by AQAP, is located. By reclaiming Azzan, AQAP puts itself in a better position to move against Aden.

AQAP has been able to maintain control of entire Yemeni provinces due to the current civil war, which began when the Yemeni government was pushed out of the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014 by the Houthis, a Shiite rebel group backed by Iran.  In response to the Houthi move, a Saudi-led coalition, along with government forces of Yemen, began an operation to roll the Shiite rebel group back.

With the Saudi coalition and Yemeni government forces focusing on the Houthis, AQAP has been able to capture territory with minimal resistance. This lack of resistance has also allowed AQAP to set up their own forms of government, and imposing sharia law on their controlled territory.

While AQAP has seen little resistance from the government, they have begun to feel pressure from a growing Islamic State (IS) presence. In early 2015, the two groups engaged each other in Yemen’s eastern provinces over contested territory. Aside from these early engagements, the two groups have remained focused on fighting the Shiite Houthis. Katherine Zimmerman from the American Enterprise Institute believes that if IS begins to dominate the fight against the Houthis, it may drive AQAP to “attack Western targets or increase funding to anti-Houthi militias.”

Even prior to the civil war and AQAP’s most recent advances, the U.S campaign to target AQAP faced substantial challenges. The group has been targeting the Yemeni government for years, and has been largely undaunted by targeted killings directed at their leadership.

The U.S. has backed the Saudi coalition in Yemen despite ambivalence towards the high civilian casualties caused by Saudi air strikes.

The Obama Administration’s new relationship  with Iran and subsequent falling out with the Saudi kingdom has limited U.S. influence over the Saudi aggressive air campaign. The withdrawal of U.S. military and intelligence operations from Yemen following the Houthi take over has hampered the U.S. effort to target AQAP.  Without forces of their own, and with the Saudi government focused on the Iranian threat, the U.S. has limited options as AQAP continues to strengthen itself and plot for future attacks.

Taliban Continue War Against Afghan Government Amid Peace Talks

On Sunday, January 17, 2015, a suicide bomber struck the house of a prominent, local Afghan politician Obaiduallah Shinwari. The blast killed 14 and wounded another 13. Shinwari escaped with minor injuries.

It is still unconfirmed who was responsible for the attack, but Taliban leaders have voiced their innocence. The second round of Afghan peace talks was set to take place soon, and some believe this attack was meant to disrupt any meaningful progress. The talks are meant to focus on a possible peace between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

The Taliban were absent from the first talks, but the U.S., China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan all took part. For almost a decade the government has been at war with the Taliban, and internal and external powers would like to see an end of hostilities.

Peace may be even more critical in the upcoming years as a branch of the Islamic State (IS) has begun its push into Afghanistan. Last week IS incited an attack near the Pakistani consulate building in Jalalabad. While ideologically aligned, the Taliban and IS remain competitors.

While the Taliban may not have been behind Monday’s bombing, they have done little to show their commitment to peace. This past September the Taliban overran the city of Kunduz after months of fighting government forces. The capture of Kunduz served as not only a military victory, but also a political victory. Kunduz was the largest city to be captured by the Taliban since 2001. While in the city, the Taliban released hundreds of Afghan prisoners into the streets and reportedly burned police stations.

Government forces were able to recapture the city of Kunduz, but their troubles did not end there. Just months later in December, the Taliban launched a major attack on the Kandahar airport, one of the most heavily fortified military compounds in the country. The attacks resulted in 22 military personnel and 9 Taliban being killed.

Later in December the Taliban attempted to capture Sagin. If the Taliban had captured Sagin they would have been able to cut off a key supply line coming from Lashkar Gah. The Taliban would have had better mobility in the north. Government forces were eventually able to stop the assault, but lost a police headquarters and the governor’s compound.

While Afghanistan, the U.S., Pakistan, and China would all like the Afghan government and Taliban to come together, recent trends would suggest peace is not on the horizon. The Taliban’s attacks on Kunduz and Sagin indicated the Taliban are trying to weaken the Afghan government militarily and politically. Currently the Taliban are attempting to control the Helmad region. Afghan and U.S. forces are working together to repel their attacks, but even if they stop the Taliban here there will surely be more attacks to come.

Back in October, President Obama issued a statement claiming around 5,500 American troops will remain in the country after he leaves office, but given the 10,000 soldiers currently in Afghanistan have been unable to positively impact the current situation, a downgrade will make matters worse. Given the failing strategy of the Obama Administration, it is up to the next President to thoroughly evaluate America’s Afghan policy.

Pakistani Taliban Continue to Fight Back in Northeast

The Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has claimed responsibility for suicide bombing a security checkpoint along a Pakistani highway in the Peshawar region, Tuesday. A Talban supporter reportedly drove a bomb-laden motorcycle into the security checkpoint killing 10 and wounding another 20. A TTP splinter group has also claimed responsibility for the attack.

TTP senior commander Mabool Dawar claimed the attack was in retaliation to recent arrests and killings of Taliban supporters. The increase in arrests is a result of an increase in security forces along the Pakistani-Afghan border to combat the influence of the Taliban and other groups in the region.

Reuters reports the number of attacks has gone down since the government forces crackdown on terrorist groups in the region, however TTP has continued to conducted attacks around the country in recent months. Just last week TTP claimed responsibility for the bombing of a polio center that killed 15.

The recent government crackdown was instigated by a TTP assault on a Pakistani school that killed 145 people, 132 of them being schoolchildren. The government responded with fierce air strikes against Taliban strongholds, and has since been closely monitoring the border region to limit operations in the Northeast.

Since June of 2014, Pakistani government forces have launched numerous offensives under Operation Zarb-e-Azb to route the Taliban out of the border region. However, this offensive has sparked extreme hostility from TTP.

Last Friday Newsweek reported that nearly 80 TTP supporters surrendered to government forces. An unnamed Tribal Leader hoped that this would be the beginning of more surrenders by Taliban forces, yet recent weeks have painted a different picture. The surrender may have been the impetus for Tuesday’s attack, and there may be more to come in the future.

TTP seems to be less intimated than government and news sources have led on. While the number of attacks may have gone down, TTP have been more brazen in recent months attacking security forces and installations in the region. In September 2014, TTP launched an attack on a Pakistani naval yard in Karachi that killed one person. This past September, TTP fighters attacked a Pakistani air force base in Peshawar, which killed 29 people.

Aside from attacking military installations, TTP and Pakistani Taliban splinter groups have continued to target civilian populations throughout Pakistan. On January 30, 2015, Jundullah, a TTP splinter group, bombed a Shia Mosque in the Shikarpur district killing 40 people. February 13, 2015, TTP attacked another Shia mosque in Peshawar killing another 20. March 15, 2015, TTP attacked a church during Sunday Mass in Lahore killing 14. Finally on December 29, 2015, TTP claimed responsibility for the bombing of the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) office killing 26 and wounding another 45.

The Pakistani Taliban may have lessened the number of attacks since the government crackdown, but they are still playing a dangerous role in the country. With the U.S. limiting its military and drone efforts around the region the only force to challenge TTP is Pakistani government forces.

Al Shabaab Continues Assault on AU Forces

Early Friday morning, January 15, 2015, the New York Times reported that Al Shabaab, an Al Qaeda affiliated group, forces had overrun an African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) base in El-Adde, Somalia, located in the Southwest region of the country. Somalia National Army (SNA) and Kenyan Defense Force (KDF) soldiers occupied the base.

Al Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Abdulaziz Abu Musab, claimed dozens of AMISOM soldiers had been killed, but reports from AMISOM, claim these figures may be exaggerated.

The assault began when an Al Shabaab fighter detonated a suicide bomb at the gates of the African Union (AU) base. After the gates were destroyed, more Shabaab soldiers flooded into the complex starting a massive firefight. After hours of fighting the Shabaab fighters were repulsed.

According to VOA reporter Harun Maruf on Twitter, Al Shabaab was able to secure a large quantity of weapons and 13 military vehicles during the attack.

Mail & Guardian Africa news reported both Shabab and AMISOM have hid exact casualties figures in the past, so it unclear exactly how many soldiers each side lost. However, The Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission (SRCC) for Somalia, Ambassador Francisco, stated there were casualties on both sides.

The AU established AMISOM in order to bring stability to a country that has been racked by civil conflict for almost three decades. However, AMISOM has struggled with battling Al Shabaab since its arrival in January 2007. To date 22,000 AMISOM soldiers occupy Somalia, which far surpasses its original mandate of roughly 1,600 troops.

This attack does not mark the first time Shabaab has infiltrated an AMISOM base. In June 2015, Shabab raided an AMISOM base in Lego, near the capital of Mogadishu. Witnesses claimed to have seen dozens of AMISOM soldiers laying dead on the ground, yet, once again, AU commanders denied the large number of troops killed. Shabaab launched another attack on an AMISOM base in Janale in early September 2015. The attack was characterized as a suicide assault as Shabaab fighters rushed the base strapped with suicide vests. 12 Ugandan soldiers were killed as a result to the attack.

Aside from attacking AMISOM bases, Al Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the 2010 bombing in Uganda that left 74 dead, the 2013 bombing of a Somali UN office that killed 15, the 2014 attack on the Westgate Mall in Kenya that killed 64, and, as of most recently, the attack on Garrisa University that killed 147.

BBC news and Somali President Yoweri Museveni both have claim that Al Shabaab is on its last leg. While the group may have just recently suffered a recent defection of a small group to the Islamic State (IS), there is no reason to believe they are defeated or even on the run.

Al Shabaab’s decentralized structure makes the organization one of the most difficult to combat. The ability for different clans to act independently makes targeting killings of leadership rather ineffective. The U.S. has targeted several key members of Shabaab recently, and the group has still seen growth. U.S. ground forces have entered the country, as well as continued its drone campaign in the region. Aside from providing military support the U.S. has donated billions to the Kenyan military to keep the pressure on Shabaab.

While Shabaab continues to move on the offensive, AMISOM forces continue to retreat from Somali territory. This gives Shabaab the ability to hold valuable territory in the region, and further exert its control.

Al Shabaab poses, and will likely continue to pose, a dangerous puzzle to Somalia for the foreseeable future.