Tag Archives: United States

Kim Jong-un Open To Negotiations Over Nuclear Weapons

North Korea seeks to open talks between Pyongyang and Washington, according to a South Korean envoy who recently returned from North Korea.

Kim Jong Un reportedly said he is willing to negotiate with the U.S. on abandoning his nuclear weapons, also adding that he would suspend all nuclear and missile testing while such talks are underway.

Chung Eui-yong, South Korea’s national security adviser, said in a statement that the North has said there is no reason to possess nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime be guaranteed and military threats against North Korea removed.

The Koreans also agreed to hold a summit meeting between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un at the border in late April. Before the meeting the countries will install a hotline, for the first time, where both leaders can talk on the phone directly.

This is the first time under Kim Jong Un’s rule that he has discussed relinquishing his countries nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees from the U.S., following in his father Kim Jong-Il’s footsteps in 2005 when North Korea said they would end their nuclear weapons programs in return for security and energy benefits, but ultimately nothing happened.

President Donald Trump tweeted about the statements saying that “the world is watching” and “May be false hope, but the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!”

President Trump may be right about “false hopes”. North Korea has shown no signs of dismantling their nuclear program, which in January of 2003 North Korea withdrew from the NPT and in February reactivated a 5-megawatt nuclear reactor.

In the past, North Korea has made agreements about disabling nuclear facilities but have never followed through and acted. For example, in 2007 under the Bush administration the North Koreans agreed to disable all their nuclear facilities for 950,000 metric tons of fuel oil by the end of that year. But North Korea ended up missing the December 31st deadline giving no explanation.

Kim Jung Un’s offer to South Korea and the U.S. has come after months of mounting sanctions against his regime, which include relisting North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism, and tightening oil sanctions, both of which removed advantages won by North Korea in previous rounds of failed talks.  U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in mid-January that there is “a lot of evidence that these sanctions are starting to hurt” North Korea.

Observers have credited an increasingly hard line taken by President Trump, who has repeatedly targeted North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and has warned the U.S. stood ready to take action if necessary, with the recent change in North Korean policy.

Though Kim Jong Un’s willing to negotiate is a positive sign, the history of North Korea’s past negotiations gives little room for optimism.

MS-13 Killing Raises Questions About How To Handle Transnational Threat Groups

Written By: Preston Panetti and Dominic Smith

On March 6, 18 year old Carlos Otero-Henriquez was lured into a vehicle by six members of the Mara Savatrucha-13 (MS-13) gang. Under the impression that he was headed to a party. The police later found Carlos’s body at a rock quarry near Harpers Ferry in West Virginia. The group then dumped his body into a nearby ditch.

Carlos was stabbed more than 50 times and murdered over his apparent connection to the MS-13’ rival the 18th Street or Barrio-18 gang.

The MS-13 gang developed in  Los Angles in the 1980s, following the end of civil wars taking place throughout Central America. The influx of refugees fleeing conflicts in Guatemala ,Nicaragua and El Salvador provided a large community from which MS-13 could both hide among, as well as victimize.

The gang was originally composed of immigrants from El Salvador, many of them former guerillas with the communist Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). FMLN is currently the ruling political party of El Salvador, with which MS-13 maintains close ties. Some FMLN leaders provide the gang with international connections, including to the Venezuelan government and the Colombian terrorist organization, The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). MS-13 is believed to have 10,000 members in the US alone across 46 states with another 30,000-50,000 members in Central America.

The gang leaders in El Salvador maintain effective command and control of U.S. based “cliques” through a process known as, “La Programma.” La Programma provides direct control between gang leaders in Central America and MS-13 members on American streets. According to the U.S. Justice Department “La Programma” has directed U.S. MS-13 members to exercise increasing amounts of violence in order to secure territory.

The MS-13 gang is the only street-level gang referred to as a transnational criminal organization by the U.S. Government.

The MS-13 gang  produces approximately 31.2 million dollars in revenue a year, primarily from drug and human trafficking, with sidelines in money laundering and prostitution.

The MS-13 gang have become allies with the Los Zetas, Surenos, and the Sinaloa Cartels, which control drug trafficking routes into the United States from Mexico.

Arch rivals of MS-13 include Barrio 18 and their 50,000 members they have nationwide. The killing of the 18-year-old in Loudoun County had to do with the relationship between Barrio 18 and MS-13 because Carlos Otero-Henriquez was believed to have been a member of Barrio 18.

Recently Attorney General Jeff Sessions has raised the specter of designating MS-13 as a terrorist organization. While classifying MS-13 as a terrorist organization would provide more focus and resources to the effort, it does not seem to accurately reflect the current nature of the group, which is a criminal enterprise.

While a terrorism designation for MS-13 may be stretch, it is clear that the U.S. needs to make a more concerted effort to respond to what the recent U.S. National Security Strategy identified as “Transnational Threat Organizations,” which includes both terror groups and criminal organizations like MS-13. The proposed Trump Administration strategy stresses that such organizations rely on exploiting an open American society through loose network or confederations using encrypted or secure communications and taking advantage of access to territory within fragile states or ungoverned spaces. These challenges are magnified in cases where such groups have state sponsorship.

As a result, the U.S. must focus on stripping these advantages from Threat groups if they are to effectively deal with an organization like MS-13. This includes taking legislative steps to prevent transnational gang members from taking advantage of lax citizenship or immigration laws. The effort will also require working with willing U.S. allies in Central America, as well as pushing back against countries which cooperate or provide safe-haven with MS-13, possibly by sanctioning individual members of political parties or governments which facilitate such behavior.

Burkina Faso Capitol Rocked By Simultaneous Attacks

On March 2nd, seven soldiers and 9 assailants were killed, and 80 civilians were wounded during two simultaneous attacks on the French embassy and a military headquarters in Burkina Faso’s capitol Ouagadougou. While the other was on a military headquarters. The attack was claimed by the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin) or JNIM.

The attack began when five gunmen jumped out of a truck in the city center shooting at passersby and then heading toward the French embassy, engaging local guards. No French troops were harmed during the attack.

The second attack took place at a military headquarters approximately 2 km away, and was initiated by a car bomb, followed by four gunmen opening fire on local troops. Victims were killed both on the perimeter as well as inside the premises.

The bombing likely targeted a G5 Sahel meeting being held on the base. G5 Sahel is a French-backed partnership of five countries in the Sahel region of Africa to fight against terrorism, the five countries include Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Chad.

The Ouagadougou attacks followed French raids in northern Mali carried out in past weeks. On February 14th a French operation took place killing 20 Jihadists that belonged to JNIM. A senior founder of JNIM Hasan al-Ansari was killed during the operation. JNIM issued a statement claiming the attack as revenge for recent French counterterrorism activity.

There are 4,000 French troops deployed in the region to work with militaries and engage with terrorist fighters. The U.S. has been hesitant to help the G5 Sahel due to their lack of a concrete border strategy but pledged $60 million in support. A 36-country coalition under the auspices of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (UNMISMS) also has 12,000 peace-keeping troops operating in Mali. The G5 Sahel force is pooling 5,000 men whom will become operational in mid-2018 alongside the 4,000 French forces.

G5 was launched in 2014 to develop policies on security matters in West Africa. In February of 2017 leaders of G5 as well as French President Emmanuel Macron decided to establish a joint force known as the G5 Sahel force, whose goal is to fight armed groups and transnational crime.

The G5 have identified three areas where the Sahel force will began operations, the cross border region of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the second being the border between Mali and Mauritania, and lastly on the Niger Chad border where they will focus on combating groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic Maghrib (AQIM).

The estimated annual cost for the G5 Sahel will be $500 million, most of the money supporting the G5 is coming from outside of the region. The five African nations have pledged $57 million and the UN will match that amount while the U.S. has already pledged $60 million, other donors include the EU at 100 million Euros, Saudi Arabia at 100 million euros, and the United Arab Emirates at 30 million euros.

The G5 is an important movement in the Sahel region, many countries in this region have poor national governments, weak borders, wide open areas, and wide spread poverty which terror organizations and criminal networks thrive off. Attacks such as the one that occurred in Burkina Faso will only continue until the terror networks in the region are successfully confronted.

 

U.S. State Department Designates The Maute Group As A Terrorist Organization

On February 27th, the U.S. State Department designated ISIS-Philippines and the Maute group as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. As a result, U.S. persons are prohibited from engaging in transactions with the group.

Founded approximately 7 years ago by Omar and Abdullah Maute, the Maute group declared its allegiance to ISIS in 2014.

The Maute group is responsible for multiple attacks throughout the Philippines, including the September 2016 Davao market bombing killing 15 people and wounding 70 others, as well as an attempted bomb attack in November of 2016 near the U.S. embassy in Manilla.

The group is also responsible for the siege on the city of Marawi located in the southern island of Mindanao which occurred in May of 2017. The Maute group executed the attack in concert with the jihadist terror group Abu Sayyaf.

Born in the city of Marawi both brothers studied in the Middle East and became fluent in Arabic.

Omar attended Al-Azhar University in Egypt and Abdullah studied in Jordan. Their father Cayamora Maute had ties with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). MILF’s goal is to liberate the Mindanao region from the Philippines.

Abu Sayyaf broke away from MILF in 1991 because they disagreed with MILF’s policy of wanting to pursue regional autonomy. Abu Sayyaf seeks to establish an independent Islamic state in the southern Philippines. The U.S. State Department designated Abu Sayyaf  as a terrorist organization in 1997 and the group has long standing ties to Al Qaeda.

The battle began due to government forces attempting to arrest a top IS leader Isnilon Hapilon, an Abu Sayyaf leader. This prompted the IS-affiliated groups Abu Sayyaf and the Maute to fight back. The groups burned buildings and took control of major bridges leading into the city.

The siege lasted 6 months and ended in October of 2017 after government troops stormed a hideout killing Hapilon. The battle resulted in 920 jihadist fighters, 165 government troops, and 45 civilians being killed.

The Maute brothers were both reportedly killed during the siege, Abdullah Maute was killed during an air strike in August of 2017 and Omar Maute was killed by a Filipino sniper in October of 2017.

Islamic terrorism is not a new phenomenon is the Philippines, MILF was founded in the 1970s and Abu Sayyaf split off from MILF in the 1990s. The identity and whereabouts of Maute Group’s current leader are unknown.

It is difficult for the Filipino government to maintain control over the entire country because it is made up of 7,107 islands.

The U.S. declaring the Philippines IS and the Maute group as terrorist organizations will limit the groups resources they need to carry out terrorist attacks which may help the Filipino government better take control of their country. However, over past years since 9/11 the U.S. has helped the Philippine military both financially and strategically.

After 9/11, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo pledged her support for the U.S. saying that the Philippines are “prepared to go every step of the way,” allowing U.S. forces to use Philippine airspace, sea lanes, and military facilities. President Arroyo also stated that the country is ready to “deploy support and medical personnel and combat forces if requested by the United Nations.”

The Philippine government hoped that by working so closely with the U.S. military this would help them in their fight against terror groups like Abu Sayyaf in Mindanao, which the U.S. in fact did.

In 2003, U.S. aid to the Philippines was $78.65 million as well as $2.4 million for military education and training and $93.2 million worth of military equipment. The U.S. has also directly supported the Philippine military by conducting military operations such as the Balikatan exercise.

The Balikatan exercise in 2002 lasted between January 15th through July 31st where 1,650 to 2,665 U.S. military personnel conducted for the first time in hostile areas in southern Mindanao, which was a big change from the original Balikatan exercises that began in 1981.

The latest Balikatan exercise was held in 2017 between May 8th – May 19th. The Balikatan exercise has been scaled down focusing more on humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and counter terrorism.

Throughout 2018 the Philippine and U.S. militaries are planning on holding a total of 261 activities focusing on exchanges and exercises such as territorial defense exercises and humanitarian assistance.

The continued presence of terror threats like the Maute Group on the Philippine Islands is a reminder of the ongoing global nature of the U.S.-led fight against jihadist organizations, which takes place on every habitable continent. The U.S. must continue to coordinate with regional allies, and provide the necessary support to prevent the growth of ungoverned territory where terrorists can freely operate.

 

Islamic State Attacks Yemeni Government Counter Terrorism Center, Killing 14

On February 24th in the city of Aden in southern Yemen 14 people were killed and another 40 wounded during an attack on a Yemeni government counterterrorism center.

The attack took place in an area called Gold Mohr in Aden’s Tawahi district. Security sources said two suicide bombers detonated cars filled with explosives at the camp’s entrance just before six attackers attempted to enter the camp but were killed by guards. Many of the dead were soldiers, but a woman and two children were also killed.

This was the first terrorist attack since battles broke out last month between the Yemeni government and separatists over the control for Aden. Aden is the temporary capital of Yemen’s Hadi Government. The traditional Yemeni capital of Sanaa remains in the hands of Iranian-backed Houthi rebels after being captured early in the ongoing civil war.

Islamic State (IS) claimed the attack on their Amaq website. Over the past few years the IS has repeatedly attacked Aden mainly targeting government forces and Shia mosques.

As the civil war in Yemen continues to create problems for U.S. Counterterrorism operations. In December of 2017 the U.S. Defense Department acknowledged that the U.S. had launched “multiple ground operations” in Yemen and that the IS has doubled in size throughout 2017. The IS fighters are fleeing the fallen strongholds of Raqqa and Mosul through secret deals with Kurdish or other Arab forces and making their way to Yemen.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) also said that the U.S. had conducted more than 120 airstrikes against al-Qaeda and the IS throughout 2017.

Up until these statements, very little was known about U.S. involvement within Yemen. In January of 2017 officials acknowledge a ground raid against al-Qaeda where one Navy Seal was killed.

The goal of the U.S. attacks was to disrupt the IS and al-Qaeda from using ungoverned spaces in Yemen as a hub for recruitment.

Donald Trump said in his National Security Strategy that “We crushed Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorists on the battlefields of Syria and Iraq,” “and will continue pursuing them until they are destroyed.”

In order to do that the Trump administration will need to do more than “destroy” the IS with airstrikes. As long as Yemen remains a largely ungovernable space, it will continue to draw IS fighters and attacks will continue.

State Department Designates Ansarul Islam As A Terrorist Organization

On February 20th the United States State Department designated Ansarul Islam (AI) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, which results in the imposition of certain key sanctions on the group’s ability to engage in financial transactions and receive support.

AI is a terrorist group located in Burkina Faso. The group was formed in 2016 in Mondoro, Mali by Ibrahim Mala Dicko. Dicko created an operational base in the forests of central Mali, which was just across the border of Burkina Faso.

Dicko has a history of attempting to join other jihadist groups in West Africa. Dicko attempted to link up with Mali-based jihadist group Ansar Dine which has al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) ties. During the 2012 Mali conflict Dicko went and joined the northern rebels trying to take over the government. AQIM is a jihadist group and designated by the US as a terrorist organization. AQIM joined the northern rebels during the conflict, but the rebels were repelled by French forces and other African allies, with U.S. assistance in early 2013.

Dicko was arrested by French forces but was eventually released in 2015. He died in early 2017 and his brother Jafar took control of Ansarul Islam. Jafar was previously with Katibat Macina, an affiliate of Ansar Dine located in southern Mali.

AI launched their first ever attack in December of 2016, attacking military personnel in the town of Nassoumbou in northern Burkina Faso. The attack left 12 soldiers dead, one of the deadliest against Burkina Faso troops.

The group was also believed to be responsible for a February 2017 attack on two police stations in the Soum region of Burkina Faso, as well as the murder of two men in the village of Kourfayel in March of 2017.

Burkina Faso is a small land-locked country, but it is relatively new to being targeting by jihadist groups. The fear is that northern Burkina Faso is the starting point for AI and that they will eventually spread further south if not confronted.

For some time, the government has not done enough to combat the group. Officials have repeatedly condemned terror attacks but have taken limited action. After the attack on Kourfayel in March officials proposed withdrawing peace-keeping contingents in Sudan and Mali and reassigning those troops to fight the AI in the north, creating a multinational force in the Sahel region.

Burkina Faso is a new front for al-Qaeda and their affiliates through AI. The US declaring AI as a terrorist organization will place restrictions on them, such as that AI will not receive any US foreign assistance and Americans will be prohibited from doing transactions with the group, there will also be a ban on defense exports and sales. These restrictions will hopefully slow AI down from spreading throughout Burkina Faso.

Syrian Government Joins Forces With The YPG Against Turkey

On February 19th the Syrian government moved troops towards the Northern Syrian city of Afrin, where Turkish troops are currently engaging the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Unit (YPG). Over the last few weeks Turkey has focused on taking the town of Afrin as part of an effort to create a buffer area in Syria, pushing the YPG from its border. The Syrian government has called the attack on Afrin a “blatant attack” on its sovereignty.

On February 20th a convoy of pro-Syrian militia forces entered Syria’s Afrin region. The Turkish military reportedly fired “warning shots” forcing the 20 plus vehicle convey to withdraw to about 10km away from the city.

The YPG said that the Syrian forces will deploy alongside Afrin’s border with Turkey. Erdogan said on Tuesday “The besieging of the Afrin city center will start rapidly in the coming days.”

The Syrian moved sparked substantial diplomatic activity. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke on the phone with his Russian and Iranian counterparts. But  Russia’s Foreign Ministry called on Turkey to speak directly with the Syrian government.

Erdogan also spoke with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Rouhani reportedly said the Iranians sought to see Syria cleared of “terrorists” but also insisted on that Syrian’s territorial integrity be respected according to a statement from Rouhani’s office.

Turkey publicly views the YPG as a terror organization but has also been one of the primary backers of Sunni Syrian rebels seeking the overthrow of Iranian ally Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Over the last few years Turkey has increasingly accepted that Assad’s government is unlikely to be ousted by Syrian rebels. Turkey wants to maintain their image of standing by the rebel groups it supports. In practice this has meant agreeing to work with Iran during “De-Escalation” agreements with Russia.

Though Iran and Turkey have been working together for a while, in 2009 Erdogan told the British newspaper The Guardian that “Iran is our friend” saying he had good relations with their leaders.

In 2016 Turkey’s relationship with Iran has also strengthened over support for Qatar, when Turkey sent troops to Qatar following the Saudi-led boycott of the country over Qatar’s support for terrorist groups including Al Qaeda-linked groups, Hamas and Hezbollah.

The YPG relationship with Assad’s forces remains uneasy. Both powers hold more Syrian territory than any other group. The YPG seek autonomy over the regions they control, while Assad continues to seek the restore Syrian control of the entire territory, calling the YPG traitors in the past.

The YPG had no other choice but to ask Assad’s military for help since no other outside force would help them against Turkey, which includes the United States.

The U.S. has been backing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes the YPG throughout the course of U.S.-led effort against Islamic State, but does not back YPG efforts at autonomy. The U.S. recently backed Kurdish forces in the city of Manbij where Turkey threatened to attack the city. U.S. presence in the area was enough to hold the Turkish forces at bay.

The U.S. foreign policy in Syria today remains convoluted.  In 2013 under the Obama administration the U.S. undertook a policy of covertly arming Syrian rebels to overthrow Assad. The Obama administration’s red line on the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime was repeatedly violated, despite the Obama administration’s reaching an agreement with the Russians for the disposal of Syrian chemical weapon stockpiles.  But in 2015 the U.S. began using airstrikes to combat the Islamic State which had taken over a significant amount of Syrian territory.

Today the U.S. plays a minimal role with the wide variety of Sunni Syrian rebel groups who rely primarily on support from Turkey and Qatar. The majority of  U.S support is going towards the SDF/YPG in north east Syria in the continued fight against the IS, which has been largely ousted from its territory in Syria and Iraq.

 

 

Iranian Drone Shot Down Over Israel

On February 10th Iran launched a drone into Israel from Tiyas airbase in Syria’s central Homs region. In response Israel used an Apache attack helicopter to down the drone. It is unknown whether or not the drone was armed.

Israel then sent four fighter jets into Syria to strike the Tiyas airbase. During the attack Syrian anti-aircraft batteries downed one jet which crash-landed in Israel.

Both pilots ejected before crashing, one pilot is in critical condition. The anti-aircraft fire went into northern Israel triggering an emergency lockdown. No civilians were reported injured.

Israel then launched 8 fighter jets for another raid into Syria striking 12 targets, a mixture of Syrian air defense batteries and Iranian assets.

On Saturday evening, Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Vladimir Putin over the phone informing him that Israel intends to defend its self from any form of aggression and to prevent Iran from establishing a presence within Syria. Recent reports have suggested that Russia has continued to deploy advanced S-400 Air Defense system in Syria, and Russian defense officials claim to have integrated the their Air Defense network with the Syrian system.

One of Israel’s primary objectives has been to intervene when necessary to prevent Iran from using Syria as a corridor to Lebanon to transfer advanced weapons to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah hailed the Syrian air defenses after they shot the fighter jet down. They claim that this is a new era in which Israel cannot enter Syrian airspace without confrontation.

Israeli security officials have publicly stated of that the Iranian drone which entered Israeli airspace was a copy of a U.S. drone captured by Iran in December of 2011. Iran denied the claim.

Iran has for some time been working on their drone program, which includes “suicide” drones armed with explosives which have reportedly been provided to Hezbollah according to the U.S. Army. In 2012 Hezbollah threatened to use such drones to target nuclear infrastructure in Israel. By 2015, Hezbollah had a fully operational drone base in Lebanon from which to target Israel.

On February 6th of 2018 Iran announced a mass production of bomb-carrying drones which can carry smart munitions and strike a variety of targets.

Russian foreign ministry officials said that they were concerned about these recent events, and that everyone must exercise restraint to avoid further actions.

The US also commented on the recent events in Israel, the Department of State said that the US is deeply concerned about the escalation in violence over Israel’s border and supports that Israel has a right to defend itself.

The US continues to push back on Iran’s malign activities and has called for an end to Iranian behavior that threatens the stability of the region.

As Iran is slowly gaining confidence within their military due to their success in Syria, they are beginning to test Israel to see how they will react to certain situations. After Israel’s retaliatory attack no further escalation has occurred.

The United States condemned Iranian aggression and backed Israel’s right to self-defense while Russia publicly urged de-escalation and caution for all parties.

Absent some miscalculation on Iran’s part it seems unlikely that there will be further escalation on this issue. We can expect that Iran will continue to test the Israeli border and its response, both directly and through proxies in the short to medium-term, and that the use of unmanned vehicles will continue to play a prominent role in Iran’s provocative tactics.

US Airstrikes Pro-Assad Fighters

On February 7th and 8th in the Khusham province of Syria, the United States military killed approximately 100 members of a pro-Assad militia, according to U.S. military officials.

Airstrikes were called in after about 500 attackers launched a coordinated assault, by firing mortars 5 miles east of the Euphrates river, targeting U.S-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The mortar fire covered the advance of artillery and tanks. The U.S. responded after 20-30 tank and artillery rounds landed within 500 yards of U.S. allies.

U.S. officials said that the airstrikes were launched in “self-defense.” U.S. military officials called their Russian counterparts and warned them about the buildup. The Russians reportedly told the Americans that U.S.-backed forces would not be harmed. The U.S. and Russia back opposing forces in the area, which has necessitated a substantial deconfliction effort.

While the U.S. defended the SDF against pro-Assad forces the same cannot be said about the SDF coalition member the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which has come under repeated attack from Turkish forces.

Recently the YPG and Turkey clashed in the city of Afrin. Turkish forces are attempting to push YPG forces back from the Turkish border and capture the city.

The city of Manbij is the farthest west U.S. troops are stationed with the SDF in the fight against the Islamic State. This means so far, no U.S. troops have been endangered by Turkish strikes, even while the Turkish offensive has undermined U.S. efforts against the Islamic State.

The U.S. has largely avoided taking any steps that could be interpreted by the Turks as defending the YPG, but the rhetoric is escalating.

On February 6th, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who directly threatened Manbij calling it a “Bastion of terrorists” and demanding that U.S. forces leave. The Americans refused, with Lt. Gen. Paul Funk saying the U.S. would respond aggressively if attacked.

Funk was one of two senior American generals who traveled to the front lines just outside of the city of Manbij to meet with the SDF’s Manbij Military Council on February 7th.

Turkey’s military offensive against the U.S.-backed Kurds, and increasingly belligerent rhetoric against the U.S., continues to raise questions about Turkey’s role as NATO member and U.S. ally.

Hamas Continues Attacks on Israeli Citizens, US Places Sanctions

On February 6th, in the village of Yamun near Jenin, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli Security Forces (ISA) killed Hamas commander Ahmed Nasser Jarrar in a raid in the early morning. Ahmed Jarrar was a leader of Hamas’s Izz al-Din al Qassam Brigades. Hamas praised Jarrar following the announcement of his death.

According to the IDF, the building Jarrar was found inside was surrounded by security forces. Jarrar armed with an M-16 rifle emerged from the building and was shot dead.

Following the raid, Israeli security forces clashed with dozens of Palestinians. According to the Palestinian Red Crescent two Palestinians were wounded by rubber bullets and 7 Palestinians were hurt from inhaling tear gas. No Israeli forces were reported injured.

Israeli security officials held Ahmed Jarrar responsible for the January 9th drive by shooting which killed Rabbi Raziel Shevach on the road near his home. Shevach was in his car when men opened fire on him.

Ahmed Nassar Jarrar is the son of Nassar Jarrar, Nassar was a senior Hamas commander and was the leader of Hamas’s forces in Jenin, playing a significant role in the 2nd Intifada until he was killed by Israeli troops in 2002.

This is not the only incident of a Rabbi being murdered this year in Israel. On February 5th a Rabbi named Itamar Ben-Gal was violently stabbed to death at a bus stop outside of the city of Ariel. Israeli security forces believe a man named Abed al-Karim Adel Assi who is linked with the Palestinian Authority (PA) carried out the murder.

President Netanyahu referenced the successful Israeli operation “determined and complex” in a statement, highlighting the raid as an example of Israeli justice.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh vowed that attacks would continue, referencing the “liberation of Jerusalem” Jerusalem has been front and center of Hamas’ calls for action following an operation on the Temple Mount killed two Israeli police officers in July of last year; and has remained a propaganda focus following the announcement of the U.S. decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.

Over the last month the US has laid out new sanctions that target individuals and entities connected to Hamas, including Haniyeh. The designations are at least partially in response to news that Haniyeh was the preferred Hamas leader of the Iranians, who have renewed financial support of the Palestinian terror group.

The US Treasury Department placed Haniyeh on a sanctions blacklist that will freeze any US based asset he may have and prohibit any individual or company from doing business with him.

Haniyeh has said that these sanctions delegitimatize the US as a peace broker between Israel and Palestine. Hamas reacted to the sanctions by saying it shows the “depth” of US bias toward Israel.

It seems likely that continued low level terror attacks by Hamas will continue against Israeli targets, as part of a long running campaign that has sometimes been called the “knife intifada” due to the relatively unsophisticated attack methods that have been prevalent. Still it seems unlikely that Hamas would choose to substantially escalate this low intensity conflict with Israel in the short term, as it continues to reestablish ties to its Iranian backers.