Tag Archives: Yemen

French Navy Seizes Second Large Cache of Weapons off the Coast of Somalia This Month

On March 20, 2016, the French navy seized a ship in the north of the Indian Ocean carrying several hundred AK 47 assault rifles, machines guns, and anti-tank weapons. A French helicopter spotted the vessel that was unregistered, and it was soon intercepted by the FS Providence.

After the French seized the vessel, the crew of 10 were brought in for questioning. There has been no mention of any information given by the crew, but they have since been released.

The French Navy has yet to reveal any further information about the origin or final destination of the ship, but the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), the group of nations policing the Indian Ocean, stated the arms were meant for Somalia.

While the CMF reported the ship was destined for Somalia, a U.S. assessment believes the arms were in fact destined for Yemen, originating in Iran. The U.S. came to a similar conclusion after the Australians seized a arms cache from another ship earlier in the month. The Iranians have been accused of arming the Houthi rebels, which gives this assessment credence.

The CMF is made up of 31 nations that patrol vital shipping lanes from terrorism and piracy. Some of the notable nations involved are: the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, and the UK. The CMF’s mission in the Indian Ocean is the Combined Task Force (CTF) 150, which includes the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman.

Reuters reported in 2013 that the Somali terrorist organization Al Shabaab had been receiving weapon shipments from Yemen and Iran. The group receives weapons into the Puntland, the autonomous region of Northern Somalia, and further moves them south to their strongholds.

Al Shabaab is Al Qaeda’s Somalia branch, and the group has received support in the past from AQ’s Yemen branch, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Yemen and Somalia are close in proximity, so it is possible to send weapons or personnel through shipping vessels.

Iran does not have any immediate ties to Al Shabaab or any terrorist organization in Somalia could have motivation to arm Al Shabaab. Turkey, who has been supporting Syrian opposition forces against Iran’s ally Syria, just made a deal with the Somali government to increase its investment in the country. In order to counter Turkish interference in Syria, Iran may be willing to aid Al Shabaab in disrupting rebuilding efforts. That said the Turkish-Iranian relationship is highly complex with Iran has previously worked with Turkey on gold sales in order to cheat sanctions.

While it is a possibility Iran could be aiding Al Shabaab, they do not have enough interest in Somalia to actively aid the terrorist organization opposed to the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis have been fighting the Yemeni government and a Saudi-led coalition of Gulf States since last March. The two groups were able to recently agree on a ceasefire that will take place on April 10. However, this could just be a time for the Houthi rebels to rearm. Iran has reportedly been aiding the rebels, although they deny any of these claims. Iran would surely like to see Saudi influence decrease in Yemen, and backing the Houthis will aid this mission.

While it is unlikely the ship originated in Iran, it is still important that the shipment of arms was stopped. With the CMF forces continually releasing those who pilot the vessels filled with arms, they are likely to continue their trade.

U.S. Drone strike May Suggest New Strategy to Combat Terrorism

On Tuesday, March 22, 2016, a U.S. airstrike targeting an Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) training camp reportedly killed dozens of the groups fighters. The Pentagon has been cautious to reveal the exact location of the camp, but Yemeni security forces have mentioned the camp was situated near AQAP’s stronghold in Mukalla.

The U.S. looks to be instituting a new tactic of targeting large training camps of terrorist organizations. The U.S. in the past have been known to use targeted killings that resulted in the deaths of few terrorists, but these strikes are inflicting wider damage on our enemies.

In February the U.S. targeted an Islamic State (IS) camp in Libya, near the Tunisian border, that killed upwards of 40 IS fighters and Noureddine Chouchane, the organizer of two major attacks in Tunisia. Earlier this month the U.S. targeted an Al Shabaab graduation ceremony in Somalia, which reportedly killed 150 Al Shabaab fighters. In both of these strikes training camps were the primary targets, and this suggests a new effort by the U.S. to attack terrorist organizations’ ability to fight while also targeting their leadership.

 

The same day the U.S. struck the IS camp in Libya, February 19, 2016, the Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) struck an Al Shabaab training camp killing Al Shabaab’s head of intelligence. It appears that the U.S. is not the only ones to begin this new tactic. It is likely that more nations will attempt to use this style of strike to inflict the most possible damage on their targets as groups like IS, AQAP, and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) make significant gains in their regions.

According to the Long War Journal database, the U.S. has launched roughly 135 airstrikes in Yemen since 2002, and has launched 5 this year alone. A U.S. drone strike targeted and killed Jalal Baleedi, an AQAP senior field commander, earlier this year, but this did little to slow down AQAP’s movement in the country. Shortly after Baleedi’s death AQAP was able to take the town of Ahwar in Southern Yemen, further increasing their area of control over Southern Yemen.

AQAP has been able to take significant territory in Yemen due to the fighting between Houthi rebels and forces supporting the Yemeni government. Since the Houthis pushed out the Yemeni government, the Southern and Western portions of the country have been ungoverned territory and easily captured by groups like AQAP and IS.

The U.S. has attempted to do its part to combat AQAP while a Saudi-led coalition of Gulf States focuses on the Houthi rebels.

  • In April of 2015, Ibrahim al-Rubaish, AQAP’s top ideological leader and mufti, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Yemen.
  • That same month, a U.S. drone strike killed Nasser bin Ali al-Ansi, a senior AQAP leader and AQ’s global deputy manager.
  • In June 2015, the U.S. was able to target and kill AQAP leader, Nasir al Wuhayshi, also served as AQ’s second in command.

All of these strikes targeted major players in AQAP’s ranks, but they did little to stop the group from claiming important territory within Yemen. This trend was not unique to Yemen, however. In Somalia, the U.S. successfully targeted many high ranking officers within Al Shabaab, yet this did little to hinder the groups gains in the country.

While it is still too early to identify if this new strategy will have any significant impact against terrorist organizations, it is encouraging to see the U.S. and its allies move in a new direction. Targeting membership in depth may have a major effect on a group’s morale, and it will certainly force these organizations to rethink its strategies. It would be wise for the U.S. and other allied nations to get the most out of this new strategy before these organizations change their tactics.

AQAP Continues Their Push Through Weak Opposition in Yemen

Another town in Southern Yemen has fallen under control of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) over the weekend. Ahwar, a Southern city located in the Abyan Province, was seized by AQAP fighters after ousting the group of Popular Resistance Force fighters in the area.

The Popular Resistance Force (PRF) is group of militias that has aided the government in their fight against the Houthi rebels and AQAP. The group is made up of Southern militias, and have been able to provide adequate support to the national army when fighting the Houthis. However, when fighting AQAP their effect has been minimal.

The PRF lost both Zinjibar and Jaar to AQAP late last year. A PRF leader mentioned the lack of support the PRF receives from the government has allowed AQAP to be so effective in the region.

AQAP has taken significant territory within Yemen as the government and Saudi-led coalition of Gulf States continues to fight the Houthi rebels. By taking Ahwar, AQAP further solidifies its control of the Abyan province. The group also have predominant control over the Shabwa and Hadramount provinces.

Along with taking Ahwar, AQAP assassinated Sheikh Mazen al-Aqrab, gunned down in a drive-by in the capital of Aden. Al-Aqrab was one the PRF’s most senior commanders.

Ahwar serves as a strategic point between the cities of Zinjibar and Mukallah. By taking Ahwar, AQAP is creating a region of influence along the coast line. The government forces and Gulf Coalition are primarily focused on the Northwest portion of the country, and this leaves the rest of Yemen virtually ungoverned. AQAP, and to some degree the Islamic State (IS), has taken full advantage of this situation, and has quickly seized important cities in Yemen.

Soon after AQAP reclaimed the city of Azzan, AQAP senior field commander Jalal Baleedi was killed in a U.S. drone strike. While Baleedi was a high ranking officer, his death has had little impact on AQAP’s progress. The U.S. drone strike program continues to achieve tactical successes eliminating local AQ commanders, while not altering the strategic outcome, similar to the situation currently playing out in Somalia with Al-Shabaab, with whom AQAP has close ties.

AQAP’s push through the Southern coast of Yemen is drawing the group closer to the current capital, Aden. After the government forces were expelled from Sanaa, they soon moved to Aden where they are still in control. While the government has control over the majority of the city, AQAP has been able to seize several neighborhoods on the outskirts. By controlling the entire Southern coast, AQAP may be attempting to cut the government off from its allies in the South, primarily the PRF.

If AQAP successfully establishes control over the Southern coast of Yemen it gives the group the ability to threaten a sizeable shipping lane, along with access to support their fellow Al Qaeda ally in Somalia, Al Shabaab.

The situation in Yemen is unlikely to change and AQAP will continue to poses a threat to Aden as long as the Saudi-led coalition remains focused exclusively on the Iranian-backed Houthis and the PRF militias remain a relatively weak force.

Death of Senior Commander Unlikely to Have Effect on AQAP Progress

A U.S. drone strike has reportedly killed Jalal Baleedi, an Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) senior field commander also known as Hamza al-Zinjibari. Baleedi and 11 other AQAP followers were killed during the February 4, 2016 strike in Abayan Province according to residents.

Baleedi served as a regional field commander for the provinces of Abyan, Shabwa, Hadramout, al-Bayda, and Lahj. Baleedi is best known for an operation that ambushed and executed 14 Yemeni soldiers in the city of Seiyoun on August 8th 2014.

There have been rumors that Baleedi defected to the Islamic State (IS), but this has not been substantiated.

In the past year the U.S. has successfully targeted AQAP leadership including:

  • In April of 2015, Ibrahim al-Rubaish, AQAP’s top ideological leader and mufti, was killed in a US drone strike in Yemen.
  • That same month, a U.S. drone strike killed Nasser bin Ali al-Ansi, a senior AQAP leader and AQ’s global deputy manager.
  • In June 2015, the U.S. was able to target and kill AQAP leader, Nasir al Wuhayshi, also served as AQ’s second in command.

Baleedi was born and raised in the Abyan province in Yemen, where he served as imam for a mosque in Zinjibar before joining AQAP in 2011. Several members of Baleedi’s family are members of Al Qaeda, and it is believed these ties drew him into the organization.

One of Baleedi’s strengths has been his ability to persuade others regarding Al Qaeda’s positions. This is in part because Baleedi is well-known around Yemen, including in his time serving as an imam. He appeared regularly in recruitment and field operation videos, and he also sat down for interviews with Yemeni reporters.

The U.S. State Department placed a $5 million reward on Baleedi after he was suspected of planning attacks on Western diplomats in 2013.

AQAP has recently taken considerable territory around Yemen. They now control the commercial city of Azzan, the port city of Mukalla, and are continuing to move into Aden, a major port city and new home of the Yemeni government. Baleedi, serving as field commander to the regions where these cities are, is likely to have been involved with planning and execution of these operations.

Baleedi’s death, if confirmed, will affect AQAP in the region, but although the death of a senior field commander may slow their push west, it likely won’t be enough to stop their recent successes.

With the Saudi coalition and Yemeni security forces engaged primarily in fighting the Iranian backed Houthis, it’s unclear if there is a force willing or able to capitalize on Baleedi’s death with movement on the ground. As a result the U.S.’s ability to kill high-level AQAP leadership continues to have a limited strategic impact on AQAP’s efforts.

Economic Warfare in the Middle East May Keep Oil Prices Low for the Near Future

Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil at high levels despite dropping oil prices. Oil makes up 80% of the Saudi economy, yet prices have dropped significantly over the past few months. The price now sits just over $30 a barrel. With their increasing production

OPEC nations agreed to increase oil production in hopes of weakening U.S. shale oil production. Most Middle Eastern countries can produce oil at less than $30 a barrel, while it takes around $60 to produce a barrel through fracking, the method used by shale oil producers. OPEC achieved its goal of slowing down U.S. production; however Saudi Arabia and Iran refuse to lower their own production, as oil has become a strategic weapon in the larger geopolitical conflict between the two Gulf rivals.

Saudi Arabia has expressed a desire for OPEC nations to lower production levels in order to see a rise in oil prices.  However, Iran is anxious to raise its own output levels as the U.S. lifts its sanctions. As a result, the Saudis are reluctant to decrease their own production as Iran makes up for lost profits in the oil market. With well-established cash reserves and the lowest breakeven price per barrel in OPEC, Saudi Arabia suffers less from low oil prices than does Iran.

Despite this however, the Saudi government is aware that its cash reserves are dwindling rapidly at the current price, and has lately debated new methods of funding. One option they considered was the IPO offering of state-controlled oil company, Saudi Aramco.

While the Saudi government publicly denies concerns over their deficit spending, privately there’s reason to worry. The Saudis are spending roughly $5 to $6 billion of their national reserves every month. With $630 billion total in reserves, it looks as if they are in no immediate danger, but that is assuming oil prices will not drop even further.

More troubling for the Saudis is the potential for Iran to surpass them as the top economy in the region. The recent Iran Nuclear Deal has lifted the economic sanctions that have long kept the Iranian economy from reaching full potential. With the sanctions lifted the World Bank predicts that Iran will see a 5.8% rise in GDP in 2016 and a 6.7% rise in 2017.

The Obama Administration has chosen to shift its focus on improving relations with Iran, to the detriment of Saudi Arabia, a long time U.S. ally. As a result, the Saudis have been forced to turn to other strategic methods for dealing with Iran, rather than relying on American military.

The Saudis are currently engaged with a proxy conflict with Iran on two fronts, Syria and Yemen, and relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have continued to deteriorate following  the Saudi government execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr on terrorism charges. By keeping oil production high and the price below Iran’s break-even point, Saudi Arabia hopes to keep the Iranian economy weak and hit the Iranians where it hurts.

While economic considerations may have initiated the drop in oil prices, Saudi strategic considerations are likely to continue to suppress prices as the Saudi government continues to utilize the market as a weapon.

Obama Administration Releases More Gitmo Detainees Including Hardened Jihadists

Obama Administration Releases More Gitmo Detainees including Hardened Jihadists

In the past week Obama administration has released eleven prisoners, dropping the population 93 the lowest since 2002. President Obama claims these individuals pose no threat to the United States, but their backgrounds say otherwise.

On January 4, 2016, Muhammed Abd Al Rahman Awn Al-Shamrani was released, despite being deemed a high level threat in accordance with a military memo from 2008 and recommended continued detention. He had strong ties to the Taliban and will be repatriated to his home country of Saudi Arabia and most likely will in fact look to reconnect with jihadists efforts.

On January 12, 2016, ten Yemini detainees were released and discharged to the Gulf State of Oman.

Among those who pose the most serious threat are:

Samir Naji Al Hasan Maqbel fought in the Tora Bora Mountains to maintain the protection of Usama Bin Laden; he was part of the “Dirty 30” Bind Laden security detail, and was reported to be the suspected 20th hijacker on 9/11. Was influenced by Marwan Jawan, a jihadist and al-Qaeda recruiter, who frequent figure in Yemen. Maqbel is believed to have received advanced terrorism training and to be knowlegable about Al Qaeda recruitment techniques. Maqbel was captured by the Pakistanis along with other members of Bin Laden’s security team. Was also connected to the Faisalabad Martyr Brigade to conduct IED attacks on U.S. and coalition forces.

Adham Mohamed Ali Awad (AKA Waqas Mohammed Ali Awad )  was day laborer turned fighter who was captured while traveling, he has attempted to assault and intimidate guards and workers at the prison. While in a Kandahar hospital recovering from wounds he and a group of al-Qaeda members barricaded themselves inside trying to use it as a safe haven. Captured by coalition forces, Awad has openly stated continued support for Usama Bin Laden and has vowed to kill Americans. Gitmo interrogators found Awad uncooperative and believed he remained strictly adherent to jihadist ideology, and was viewed as a threat to conduct attacks on U.S. and coalition forces.

Fahmi Abdallah Ahmad Ubadi al-Tulaqi – Was a trainer for al-Qaeda and part of the Pakistan-based Faisalabad Martyr Brigade. He planned on returning to Afghanistan to conduct IED attacks on U.S. and coalition forces. He also planned on teaching al-Qaeda fighters how to build bombs and IED’s. Spent two years with the Taliban and claims to have no military training, but was reportedly very skilled with AK-47. Captured by Pakistani authorities while hiding in a safe house. Al-Tulaqi’s Al Qaeda application stated that he was a wanted man in Yemen and was part of a “jihadi group” there. Al-Tulaqi was considered hostile to staff and guards at Guantanamo, and recorded engaging in damaging property and assaulting staff.

Abu Bakr Ibn Muhammad al-Ahdal – A willing terrorist against the United States who began in Yemen before joining al-Qaeda and is also affiliated with Harkat ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI). The HUJI is a Pakistani terrorist group that has an affiliate in Bangladesh that seeks to impose Islamic law through violence. Al-Ahdal also joined the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood’s Islah Political Party in 2000. It’s spiritual leader, Abdul Majeed Al-Zindani was a spiritual mentor of Bin Laden, and a major player in both Al Qaeda and Hamas terror finance networks.

Al-Ahdal served as a sub-commander on the front lines for al-Qaeda forces, and received basic training in al-Qaeda artillery camp. Received advanced training in Afghanistan and had multiple passports on his person. Was captured in a supply convoy by Pakistani authorities and turned over to U.S. forces.

Muhammad Salih Husayn al-Shaykh. Al Shaykh reportedly openly threatened to kill Americans while in custody, and asserted that Usama Bin Laden is “his brother in arms.” Al Shaykh was identified as having been selected as a potential suicide operative; Al-Shakyh was found in possession of numerous passports and refused to cooperate which made it difficult for interrogators to even establish his real identity. Al-Shaykh was captured with a group of Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters, who identified him as being present at the Al Qaeda stronghold of Tora Bora. His name was also linked to several al-Qaeda documents and he was heard making threats to kill Americans.

Each of these individuals are trained to kill and injure Americans and still hold to believe strongly in their mission to attack the United States. In the case of the Yemenis, their home country remains locked in civil war, allowing Al Qaeda to openly maintain terrority from which to train and conduct attack. Even in the absence of Bin laden, These individuals skill and notoriety as detainees establish them as hardcore jihadis whose support would be welcomed by groups such as Islamic State (IS) and the Taliban. Despite claims by the president’s administration, there is no evidence that the Guantanamo detainee program serves as propanganda from the recruitment of Jihadists. Yet these men scheduled for release have shown they were jihadist before internment at Guantanamo and they will continue to be so once they are released.

The closure of Guantanamo will unleash a new surplus of fighters to the Jihad’s frontlines. Guantanamo served its purpose to house individuals who were deemed a serious threat to America and its allies and must remain open.

Islamic State Claims Aden Attack, Tunisia Breaks up IS Cells, Iraqi Forces retakes territory near Ramadi…

Islamic State claims deadly attack on Yemeni government and Emirati troops in Aden

The UAE was quick to blame Houthi rebels for yesterday’s attack in Aden, Yemen that targeted their headquarters and a hotel housing Yemeni government officials.  But it turns out that Wilayat Aden-Abyan, an Islamic State affiliate in the region, has claimed responsibility for the rockets attacks as well as four other suicide car bombings.  Initial reports stated that there were 15 dead, but that toll has increased to 22, and now includes Saudi soldiers.

IS, like AQAP , are staunch foes of both the Saudis and the Iranian backed Shiite Houthis. A successful IS operation in Aden against the Saudi-coalition may establish the Islamic State as a contender to AQAP’s jihadi supremacy in Yemen, especially if IS shows it is able to successfully transition from civilian soft targets like mosques to attacks against hardened government and military targets.

South Sudan rebel leader Riek Machar snubbed by White House

The ceasefire between Riek Machar’s rebel forces and President Salva Kiir’s government in South Sudan remains for now, after Machar’s meeting with National Security advisor Susan Rice was cancelled yesterday.  Citing frustration with both sides, National Security Council spokesman Ned Price confirmed that the meeting would not proceed, urging Machar to adhere to the terms of the peace agreement signed in late August and return to Juba.

For his part, Kiir’s move to divide South Sudan into 28 provinces from the current 10 in contradiction to the ceasefire terms is a diplomatic counter to the pressure applied by the US to enter into a bad deal and weakened position.

As the main driver of South Sudan’s independence, the United States has an interest in stabilizing South Sudan.  Violence has continued as both sides claim the other is guilty of breaking the ceasefire.

Tunisian Ministry: 3 IS cells broken up; 11 arrested for recruitment in Libya

11 suspected Islamic State recruits were arrested after Tunisian police broke up three IS recruitment cells reportedly involved in bringing fighters to Libya. The Tunisian Ministry of the Interior announced that the suspects intended to join IS in Libya. According to the Tunisian government, over 3,000 Tunisians have traveled to Syria, Iraq, and Libya to fight for IS.

IS has claimed responsibility for the killing of 21 tourists at the Bardo Museum in the capital of Tunis and another 38 at a beach resort. IS appears centered on targeting Tunisia’s tourism industry, in an effort to destabilize the economy.

Iraqi forces recapture IS-held areas outside of Ramadi

Iraqi forces have retaken several areas north and west of Ramadi, closing in on the Anbar provincial capital that the Islamic State seized back in May. Neighborhoods included Zankura, Albi Jleib, al-Adnaniyah, and Albu Risha. The US-led coalition involved 2,000 troops supported by air strikes. Since the start of October, a sum total of 27 air strikes have been carried out in the Ramadi region. A member of the provincial council announced, “if operations continue at this pace, I expect the liberation of Ramadi to be possible by the end of the month.”

The Islamic States’ seizure of Ramadi has proved problematic for the Iraq state, which has struggled tor retake the city. Ramadi serves as a gateway to the greater Baghdad area, which IS has used to launch a series of deadly attacks in and around the Iraqi capital.

Other stories we’re following:

US-trained rebel groups’ weapons depot destroyed by Russian airstrikes in Syria

Houthi leaders visit Tehran to receive arms shipments, according to sources in Sanaa

Iran’s Supreme Leader forbids further negotiations with US

EU to begin intercepting boats smuggling migrants in southern Mediterranean

Russia offers to resume talks with US over deconfliction in Syria 

SecDef Carter: Russian violation of Turkish airspace not accidental, promises response

Violence continues in West Bank, sparking fears of new intifada

Top US commander in Afghanistan: IS present and growing

Australia stops conducting air strikes against IS in Syria, citing Russian intervention

Houthi rebels sign on to UN peace plan

Burkina Faso coup leader charged with threatening national security at military tribunal

Al-Shabaab threatens British peacekeepers arriving in Somalia

Nephew of Somalian president and another gov’t official killed in apparent al-Shabaab attack

Nigerian army battles Boko Haram, kills approx. 100

Yemen attacks, Russian air campaign, Iranian strike capability, Syrian rebels…

Threat Information Office Headlines 10-6-15 

Attacks in Yemen target government officials and UAE troops

A rocket attack aimed at the al-Qasr hotel in the coastal city of Aden, Yemen left at least 15 dead, including government officials and UAE troops that are participating in the Saudi-led campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.  A military base housing Emirati troops and a palace serving as UAE headquarters were also targeted.  Emirati Minister for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash blamed Houthi rebels for the attacks, saying that they are “waging a losing battle” after losing control of Aden to the Saudi-led coalition.

The Houthis still control the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, and as the coalition pushes north from Aden, the rebels have vowed reprisals following the bombing of their positions in the capital and surrounding towns. Although the coalition has the upper hand in terms of hardware and American logistical support, the Iranian-backed Houthis have managed to maintain their insurgency, showing no signs of folding anytime soon.

Russian air campaign in Syria places NATO and the US in a bind

Refuting Russia’s claims that its air incursions into Turkey over the weekend were accidental, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday that such actions were “very serious” and demanding an explanation from Russia over its two violations of Turkish airspace.  US Defense Secretary Ash Carter is also calling on Russia to respond to requests to coordinate rules of engagement and communication with American aircraft over Syria, as both countries conduct airstrikes on Islamic State (IS), while Russia attacks American-backed rebels.  Signaling growing U.S. concern, Mr. Carter said that they are “waiting on the Russians.”

Currently, Syrian skies are crowded with American, Australian, French, and Turkish jets on one side, and Russian and Syrian aircraft on the other, raising the specter of potential confrontation, particularly as Russia shows a willful disregard in its violation of sovereign airspace. With Bashar al-Assad receives timely assistance from Moscow, the Iraqi government is now also requesting assistance from Russia as well against IS.

Ahrar al-Sham and other rebels call for coalition against Russia and Iran

In a joint statement with approximately 40 other rebel groups, al-Qaeda linked faction Ahrar al-Sham has called for a “regional coalition” against Russia and Iran, accusing them of bombing civilian targets throughout rebel-held areas.  While Ahrar Al Sham’s ally and Al Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra front did not sign the statement (nor did IS), Al Nusra’s absence shouldn’t be viewed as a lack of support, but rather likely intended to help create the appearance of separation between the AQ-linked forces, as Ahrar al-Sham, has been at pains to present themselves as a “moderate” alternative to IS. Ahrar Al Sham has not waited for a response to its declaration however, launching attacks on Russian positions in Latakia.

The Ahrar Al Sham statement follows a fatwa by Saudi-based clerics calling on “all who are able” to join the fight in Syria against Assad. Although the kingdom has criminalized both joining jihadist groups and traveling to Syria to fight, the clerics are openly defying the Saudi authorities, who continue to provide material and military support to the “Islamic Army” which is allied with Ahrar Al Sham as part of the Islamic Front and has fought side by side with Al Nusra in the past.

Iran claims missile strike capability on all US bases in Middle East

In comments made to the Iranian state news agency, IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh claimed that all American bases in the ME are “within range” of their missiles and that the nuclear deal places no restrictions on further development capability. This statement continues an ongoing propaganda campaign. Last week, Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi stated that Iran is imposing its sovereignty in the Persian Gulf “very powerfully.” These statements are likely a reaction to the news that the US Navy will be reducing its presence in the Gulf, as for the first time in seven years there will not be at least one carrier strike group navigating the sensitive waters in the coming months.

Iran is also participating in the joint command center set up in Baghdad with Iraqi, Russian, and Syrian participation to coordinate the Syrian strategy.  The increased confidence and bluster exhibited by Tehran is only the beginning as the nuclear deal is implemented.

Other stories we’re following:

Tunisian police arrest 11 IS recruiters

Violence continues in West Bank, Israelis and Palestinians killed in protests

Afghan Army fighting to retake Kunduz from the Taliban

Russia conducts airstrikes against IS targets

Boko Haram attack leaves 11 dead in Chad

Nigeria arrests Boko Haram financier  

Congress seeks to eliminate Syrian rebel training program

State Dept: cyber warfare treaty with China not on the table

US Navy warns against restrictions imposed on South China Sea

Nigeria Issues Ban over Boko Haram, 25 Killed in Yemen Mosque Blast, Hamas Calls Day of Rage…

All forms of transportation banned in Nigeria to prevent Boko Haram attack

As of Wednesday evening, all transportation, including cars but also livestock including horses, donkeys, and camels, have been banned from entering Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state in Nigeria. This ban has been enforced with the intention of preventing a possible Boko Haram attack. The Muslim Eid al-Ahda holiday (Festival of Sacrifice) began Wednesday, creating a prime opportunity for the jihadists to carry out an attack. As of Sunday a Boko Haram attacks have begun in Borno, where 54 people died in a triple bombing. This is not the first time that the Nigerian military has been forced to ban transportation in the past.  Boko Haram fighters have repeatedly both cars and trucks but also horses and donkeys in their movement and to disguise explosives.

25 Killed in Yemen suicide bombing

An attack in Sanaa has left 25 dead and 36 wounded. The Islamic State has been said to have carried out the attack, which featured a suicide bomber, apparently disguised as a woman, entering the Shiite al-Balili mosque as worshippers were in their morning prayers. One bomber reportedly detonated explosives inside the mosque and as people fled, a second bomber set off explosives at the entrance. This is one of several times that Islamic State fighters have targeted Shiite Houthi mosques. While both Islamic State and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula routinely target Shia. While Islamic State prefers to focus on religious targets, while AQAP typically targets the Iranian-backed Houthi forces. Neither Jihadist force has been targeted by the Saudi-led coalition which is currently fighting against Houthi forces in Yemen on behalf of ousted president Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who recently returned to Yemen from exile in Saudi Arabia.

The UN says that almost 4,900 people have died in Yemen due to Saudi-led coalition air strikes and fighting on the ground since March 26th.

 

“Day of Rage” called by Hamas over Al-Aqsa Mosque

Hamas has joined the Global Muslim Brotherhood in calling for a “Day of Rage” at the Al-Aqsa mosque. Israeli police barred young men from their prayers at the site. Police and the Palestinian protesters clashed over the sacred area for three days during this week’s Jewish New Year holiday. The police have limited the age of Muslim worshippers entering the Temple Mount area, allowing only men over 40 to enter, and women of all ages.  This restriction is aimed at keeping out the younger Palestinian males who typically form the backbone of the violent protests. Israeli officials are worried that as religious holidays continue, the trouble will increase. Prior analysis has shown that the Muslim Brotherhood and its Palestinian branch Hamas are highly effective at orchestrating protests, frequently violent, on their behalf, often on short notice.

 

Russia seeks UN approval for Middle East “broad-front fight”; announces naval drills; jets strike Islamic State

Putin visited the UN’s general assembly in an attempt to gain international approval for Russian military entrance into Syria, promoting a “broad-based counterterrorism fight.” U.S. diplomats immediately shut down the proposal. Russia has been working to gather a proposal that would include jets, airbases, and drones in Syria as part of a plan to bring stability to a strife-torn region and fight against IS. Facing resistance from the US and other nations, Russia agreed changed some of the provisions that would appear to grant U.N approval to Russian military action in Syria.

Russia has also announced that they will conduct “combat exercises” in the Mediterranean Sea. The US has continued to accuse Russia of a military build up in Syria. Officials say that there should be forty combat exercises in total taking place through September and October. The drills are likely to continue to increase tensions between Kremlin and the NATO military alliance.

The Russians have also given their jets to Syria to use in airstrikes against the Islamic State. Syrian forces used Russian warplanes to fight against IS insurgents in Northern Syria in an attempt to break a siege on a nearby airbase.  While the Assad regime has been criticized in the past for an apparent disinterest in targeting Islamic State forces, the most recent round of airstrikes, accompanied by ground attacks, are likely intended to reinforce Russia’s position that it is legitimately supporting an ally engaged in a fight against terrorism.

 

Fighter group Jaish al Muhajireen wal Ansar swears allegiance to Al Nusra Front

Jaish al Muhajireen wal Ansar (JMA), or “The Army of the Emigrants and Helpers,” has made a not-so-surprising move by pledging allegiance to a the Syrian branch of al Qaeda, the al Nusra Front. JMA is a declared terrorist organization by the State Department and is comprised of foreign fighters, often fighting alongside al Nusra as well as other al Qaeda-linked organizations in Syria.

JMA has recently undergone a power shift, with its emir, Salahuddin Shishani removed from his post in June. His replacement was succeeded by al Mu’tasim Billah al Madani, a Saudi sharia court judge and rumored ideologue in al Qaeda’s network. Al Madani is strongly opposed to the Islamic State, even contributing to a fatwa encouraging rebellion against Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and the Islamic State.

 

Chinese president Xi Jinping arrives in Washington as China continues military expansion

Reflecting the complicated and nuanced US-China relationship, Xi Jinping arrives for a state visit amidst tensions regarding cyber attacks and Chinese military moves in the South China Sea.  While Jinping has pledged cooperation with the US regarding cyber warfare, analysts point out that hacking attacks originating from China have increased since Jinping took office in November of 2012.  A pact that would establish definitions on what is and isn’t a considered a cyberattack remains in the negotiation phase, with the White House stated that a formal announcement is not imminent.

At the same time, concern is mounting in the military sector over China’s development of advanced weaponry, including a nuclear submarine that Pentagon analysts believe can carry missiles designed to strike anywhere in the US.  The JL-2 missiles, which have a range of about 4,598 miles, are the latest addition to an arsenal that already includes the so-called “carrier killer” DF-21D anti-ship missile.

 

Venezuela’s death spiral continues, Guyana latest target

As President Nicolas Maduro’s woes continue, Guyanese President David Granger has denounced “a persistence of aggressive behavior” towards his country, which borders Venezuela.  Guyana claims that armed Venezuelan vessels have violated its sovereignty, perhaps in a bid to assert control over waters in which Exxon Mobil is conducting oil exploration.  According to Maduro, a centuries-old land dispute between the two countries is being exploited by oil companies.  In response, the Venezuelan military has deployed troops in what it calls a simple military exercise.

This saber-rattling looks to be a reaction to the news coming out of Havana that the Colombian government is close to reaching a peace treaty with the narco-terrorist FARC.  As a staunch backer of the rebels, the Venezuelan government stands to lose if and when the guerrilla war in Colombia comes to an end. While the border crisis with Colombia concludes, Maduro seems desperate for a cause to rally his shrinking base as the parliamentary elections in December loom.

Other headlines we’re following:

Over 700 dead outside Mecca during annual haj pilgrimage

Syrian army bombs IS in Aleppo using Russian warplanes

Pentagon denies report that U.S.- trained rebels defected to al Qaeda

Iran develops recon drone, according to Tasnim news agency

Russia coordinates with Israel to prevent confusion in Syria

Group of nations seeks tribunal for Malaysia plane shot down over eastern Ukraine

Russia plans military base near Ukraine border

Putin to meet with Obama at UN next week

China to provide economic assistance after sanctions lifted

US: Chinese hackers took 5.6 million fingerprints of federal workers

Saudi Talks with Hamas Point to Improving Relationship

Last week, Saudi King Salman held talks with Hamas leader, Khaled Meshaal, and other top Hamas officials. The Saudi monarchy has not officially acknowledged talks with Hamas for four years, though the two have maintained informal contact. The meeting demonstrates that the rapport between the two sides is improving after years of strained relations.

Hamas formed in 1987 as the Palestinian arm of the Egyptian-based Muslim Brotherhood. Though Saudi Arabia and the Brotherhood had a good relationship throughout much of the mid- and late-twentieth century, the relationship devolved during the First Gulf War. The Brotherhood opposed the Saudi government’s allowance of American presence in the country and support for the US in the war. Though their relationship improved throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s, it deteriorated again during the Arab Spring in 2011. The Saudi branch of the Brotherhood voiced its support for the Egyptian uprising that put Mohamed Morsi in power, and the government worried the branch would attempt its own political revolution.

Last year, the country designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. This caused concern amongst Hamas leadership because the designation was applied to the Brotherhood’s affiliates and front organizations, and much of the charity money and financial support that the group receives comes from Saudi Arabia. However, Salman, who became King in January, has been much more open to talks with the Brotherhood than his predecessor, and this likely led to last week’s meeting with Meshaal. The Saudi government recently stated that despite meeting with Meshaal, the official view  of the Saudi kingdom toward Hamas remained unchanged.

Saudi concerns with Hamas extend beyond its involvement in the Global Muslim Brotherhood. Iran, Saudi Arabia’s foremost regional competitor, is traditionally one of Hamas’ major funders. Hamas and Iran had a falling-out over the group’s refusal to support the Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria when the Syrian uprising began in 2011, but relations started to improve again last year. Though Iran cut funding to Hamas in retaliation for supporting Syrian rebels against Assad in 2013, it reportedly transferred tens of millions of dollars to the group this year to help rebuild its tunnel network that was damaged in its 2014 war with Israel.

Saudi Arabia, a Sunni nation, is currently fighting a sectarian-based proxy war in Yemen against Shia Iran. A major motivating factor behind reopening talks with Sunni Hamas is the possibility of creating sectarian tension between the organization and Iran with the intention of weakening Iran’s regional influence. Earlier this month, the Iranian news agency Fars reported that Saudi Arabia asked Hamas to send 700 fighters to Yemen to assist the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis, who officially seized power from Yemen’s Saudi-backed President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi in February. Meshaal rejected these claims, saying that they were unfounded; however, Hamas does formally support President Hadi. As Iran already cut ties with the Gaza-based Palestinian Islamic Jihad over its reluctance to support Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, an improving relationship between Hamas and Saudi Arabia could lead to another falling-out with Iran.

Saudi Arabia has also been a major contributor to the US-led coalition fighting against the Islamic State, which has established the Sinai Province affiliate in the North Sinai region of Egypt. Sinai Province is reportedly collaborating with Hamas in attacks on the anti-Brotherhood government of Egyptian President Al-Sisi, even while Hamas has been suppressing Islamic State activities in the Gaza Strip itself. Saudi Arabia may be trying to gain the support and loyalty of Hamas to ensure that the group stops aiding attacks on Egypt. If Saudi Arabia is able to do so, its already strong relationship with Egypt would continue to improve. As Saudi Arabia is currently worried about Iran and its sponsorship of Shia activity in Egypt, this would give it more influence in Egypt while additionally damaging Iran’s growing regional influence.

Hamas also stands to gain significantly from better relations with Saudi Arabia. Since Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi rose to power in a 2013 military coup, he has continuously promised to crack down on Islamist militancy. Egyptian troops destroyed many of the smuggling tunnels Hamas built between Gaza and and Egypt in 2013, and the group was officially banned from operating within Egypt’s borders in 2014. Saudi Arabia has been a strong backer and ally of Sisi, supporting his 2013 coup and giving billions of dollars in aid, so Hamas may try to leverage an improved relationship with Saudi Arabia to stop Egyptian suppression.

Importantly, Hamas is trying to maintain positive relationships with both Saudi Arabia and Iran. It will take money from any country that offers it, and it is clearly trying to walk a fine line between openly supporting either side, evidenced by its voiced support for Yemen’s president but refusal to assist in the fighting. Like Saudi Arabia, it is Sunni, but it has a history of receiving support from Iran and so is likely to continue courting both countries.

Unfortunately, Saudi involvement with Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the US, EU, Israel, Canada, and Japan, is just as bad as Iranian involvement. Hamas’ charter calls for the destruction of Israel, and it has fought almost continuously with Israel since its inception.

Israel and Saudi Arabia have never established formal diplomatic relations, but they revealed in June that they have been holding secret meetings to discuss the Iran nuclear deal, which both countries vehemently oppose. Increased Saudi support for Hamas may be detrimental to this budding Saudi relationship with Israel: Israel already has few allies in the Middle East and poor relationships with Hamas’ usual backers, Iran, Qatar and Turkey. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia’s sphere of influence in the region is retracting, and it is growing estranged from its historical alliance with the US.

Closer ties between Saudi Arabia and Hamas could alienate Israel. However, Israel may decide that the threat of a nuclear Iran outweighs its irritation at Saudi Arabia for supporting for Hamas.